arXiv subjects

Michalis K. Titsias

Publications and source records attributed to Michalis K. Titsias.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Variance Reduction for Independent Metropolis

Assume that we would like to estimate the expected value of a function $F$ with respect to an intractable density $π$, which is specified up to some unknown normalising constant. We prove that if $π$ is close enough under KL divergence to another density $q$, an independent Metropolis sampler estimator that obtains samples from $π$ with proposal density $q$, enriched with a variance reduction computational strategy based on control variates, achieves smaller asymptotic variance than i.i.d. sampling from $π$. The control variates construction requires no extra computational effort but assumes that the expected value of $F$ under $q$ is analytically available. We illustrate this result by calculating the marginal likelihood in a linear regression model with prior-likelihood conflict and a non-conjugate prior. Furthermore, we propose an adaptive independent Metropolis algorithm that adapts the proposal density such that its KL divergence with the target is being reduced. We demonstrate its applicability in a Bayesian logistic and Gaussian process regression problems and we rigorously justify our asymptotic arguments under easily verifiable and essentially minimal conditions.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Gaussian Invariant Markov Chain Monte Carlo

We develop sampling methods, which consist of Gaussian invariant versions of random walk Metropolis (RWM), Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) and second order Hessian or Manifold MALA. Unlike standard RWM and MALA, we show that Gaussian invariant sampling can lead to ergodic estimators with improved statistical efficiency. This is due to a remarkable property of Gaussian invariance that allows us to obtain exact analytical solutions to the Poisson equation for Gaussian targets. These solutions can be used to construct efficient and easy to use control variates for variance reduction of estimators under any intractable target. We demonstrate the new samplers and estimators in several examples, including high dimensional targets in latent Gaussian models where we compare against several advanced methods and obtain state-of-the-art results. We also provide theoretical results regarding geometric ergodicity, and an optimal scaling analysis that shows the dependence of the optimal acceptance rate on the Gaussianity of the target.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Variational Learning for Insertion-based Generation

Non-monotonic sequence generation methods, such as masked diffusion models, provide a flexible alternative to left-to-right autoregressive modeling by allowing tokens to be generated in non-fixed and prescribed orders. Despite their practical advantages, most existing non-monotonic models are order-agnostic and rely on a fixed-length grid, limiting their ability to support variable-length generation and adaptive insertion order. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic framework for learning insertion order in variable-length insertion models. We formalize a bijective correspondence between insertion trajectories and permutations, which enables an exact reparameterization of the data likelihood as a sum over permutations. Building on this result, we propose the Insertion Process (IP), a stochastic generative model that jointly learns where to insert, what to insert, and when to terminate, trained via permutation-based variational inference. Unlike prior fixed-canvas approaches, IP natively supports variable-length generation and learns data-driven preferences over insertion orders. Experiments on goal-conditioned planning and molecular string generation demonstrate that learning insertion order improves both modeling quality and generalization in domains without a canonical left-to-right structure.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Personalized Federated Learning with Exact Stochastic Gradient Descent

We propose a Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD)-type algorithm for Personalized Federated Learning which can be particularly attractive for mobile energy-limited regimes due to its low per-client computational cost. The model to be trained includes a set of common weights for all clients, and a set of personalized weights that are specific to each client. At each optimization round, randomly selected clients perform multiple full gradient-descent updates over their client-specific weights towards optimizing the loss function on their own datasets, without updating the common weights. This procedure is energy-efficient since it has low computational cost per client. At the final update of each round, each client computes the joint gradient over both the client-specific and the common weights and returns the gradient of common weights to the server, which allows to perform an exact SGD step over the full set of weights in a distributed manner. For the overall optimization scheme, we rigorously prove convergence, even in non-convex settings such as those encountered when training neural networks, with a rate of $\mathcal{O} \left (\frac{1}{\sqrt{T}} \right )$ with respect to communication rounds $T$. In practice, PFLEGO exhibits substantially lower per-round wall-clock time, used as a proxy for energy. Our theoretical guarantees translate to superior performance in practice against baselines such as FedAvg and FedPer, as evaluated in several multi-class classification datasets, in particular, Omniglot, CIFAR-10, MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, and EMNIST.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Demystifying Diffusion Objectives: Reweighted Losses are Better Variational Bounds

We derive a new theoretical interpretation of the reweighted losses that are widely used for training diffusion models. Our method is based on constructing a cascade of time-dependent variational lower bounds on the data log-likelihood, that provably improves upon the standard evidence lower bound and results in reduced data-model KL-divergences. Combining such bounds gives rise to reweighted objectives that can be applied to any generative diffusion model including both continuous Gaussian diffusion and masked (discrete) diffusion models. Then, we showcase this framework in masked diffusion and report significant improvements over previous training losses in pixel-space image modeling, approaching sample quality comparable to continuous diffusion models. Our results also provide a theoretical justification for the simple weighting scheme widely used in masked image models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Learning-Order Autoregressive Models with Application to Molecular Graph Generation

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data types, such as graphs, the canonical ordering is less obvious. To address this problem, we introduce a variant of ARM that generates high-dimensional data using a probabilistic ordering that is sequentially inferred from data. This model incorporates a trainable probability distribution, referred to as an order-policy, that dynamically decides the autoregressive order in a state-dependent manner. To train the model, we introduce a variational lower bound on the log-likelihood, which we optimize with stochastic gradient estimation. We demonstrate experimentally that our method can learn meaningful autoregressive orderings in image and graph generation. On the challenging domain of molecular graph generation, we achieve state-of-the-art results on the QM9 and ZINC250k benchmarks, evaluated across key metrics for distribution similarity and drug-likeless.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Sparse Gaussian Processes: Structured Approximations and Power-EP Revisited

Inducing-point-based sparse variational Gaussian processes have become the standard workhorse for scaling up GP models. Recent advances show that these methods can be improved by introducing a diagonal scaling matrix to the conditional posterior density given the inducing points. This paper first considers an extension that employs a block-diagonal structure for the scaling matrix, provably tightening the variational lower bound. We then revisit the unifying framework of sparse GPs based on Power Expectation Propagation (PEP) and show that it can leverage and benefit from the new structured approximate posteriors. Through extensive regression experiments, we show that the proposed block-diagonal approximation consistently performs similarly to or better than existing diagonal approximations while maintaining comparable computational costs. Furthermore, the new PEP framework with structured posteriors provides competitive performance across various power hyperparameter settings, offering practitioners flexible alternatives to standard variational approaches.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

New Bounds for Sparse Variational Gaussian Processes

Sparse variational Gaussian processes (GPs) construct tractable posterior approximations to GP models. At the core of these methods is the assumption that the true posterior distribution over training function values ${\bf f}$ and inducing variables ${\bf u}$ is approximated by a variational distribution that incorporates the conditional GP prior $p({\bf f} | {\bf u})$ in its factorization. While this assumption is considered as fundamental, we show that for model training we can relax it through the use of a more general variational distribution $q({\bf f} | {\bf u})$ that depends on $N$ extra parameters, where $N$ is the number of training examples. In GP regression, we can analytically optimize the evidence lower bound over the extra parameters and express a tractable collapsed bound that is tighter than the previous bound. The new bound is also amenable to stochastic optimization and its implementation requires minor modifications to existing sparse GP code. Further, we also describe extensions to non-Gaussian likelihoods. On several datasets we demonstrate that our method can reduce bias when learning the hyperparameters and can lead to better predictive performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Simplified and Generalized Masked Diffusion for Discrete Data

Masked (or absorbing) diffusion is actively explored as an alternative to autoregressive models for generative modeling of discrete data. However, existing work in this area has been hindered by unnecessarily complex model formulations and unclear relationships between different perspectives, leading to suboptimal parameterization, training objectives, and ad hoc adjustments to counteract these issues. In this work, we aim to provide a simple and general framework that unlocks the full potential of masked diffusion models. We show that the continuous-time variational objective of masked diffusion models is a simple weighted integral of cross-entropy losses. Our framework also enables training generalized masked diffusion models with state-dependent masking schedules. When evaluated by perplexity, our models trained on OpenWebText surpass prior diffusion language models at GPT-2 scale and demonstrate superior performance on 4 out of 5 zero-shot language modeling tasks. Furthermore, our models vastly outperform previous discrete diffusion models on pixel-level image modeling, achieving 2.75 (CIFAR-10) and 3.40 (ImageNet 64x64) bits per dimension that are better than autoregressive models of similar sizes. Our code is available at https://github.com/google-deepmind/md4.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Non-Stationary Learning of Neural Networks with Automatic Soft Parameter Reset

Neural networks are traditionally trained under the assumption that data come from a stationary distribution. However, settings which violate this assumption are becoming more popular; examples include supervised learning under distributional shifts, reinforcement learning, continual learning and non-stationary contextual bandits. In this work we introduce a novel learning approach that automatically models and adapts to non-stationarity, via an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with an adaptive drift parameter. The adaptive drift tends to draw the parameters towards the initialisation distribution, so the approach can be understood as a form of soft parameter reset. We show empirically that our approach performs well in non-stationary supervised and off-policy reinforcement learning settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Gradient Estimation with Discrete Stein Operators

Gradient estimation -- approximating the gradient of an expectation with respect to the parameters of a distribution -- is central to the solution of many machine learning problems. However, when the distribution is discrete, most common gradient estimators suffer from excessive variance. To improve the quality of gradient estimation, we introduce a variance reduction technique based on Stein operators for discrete distributions. We then use this technique to build flexible control variates for the REINFORCE leave-one-out estimator. Our control variates can be adapted online to minimize variance and do not require extra evaluations of the target function. In benchmark generative modeling tasks such as training binary variational autoencoders, our gradient estimator achieves substantially lower variance than state-of-the-art estimators with the same number of function evaluations.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Revisiting Dynamic Evaluation: Online Adaptation for Large Language Models

We consider the problem of online fine tuning the parameters of a language model at test time, also known as dynamic evaluation. While it is generally known that this approach improves the overall predictive performance, especially when considering distributional shift between training and evaluation data, we here emphasize the perspective that online adaptation turns parameters into temporally changing states and provides a form of context-length extension with memory in weights, more in line with the concept of memory in neuroscience. We pay particular attention to the speed of adaptation (in terms of sample efficiency),sensitivity to the overall distributional drift, and the computational overhead for performing gradient computations and parameter updates. Our empirical study provides insights on when online adaptation is particularly interesting. We highlight that with online adaptation the conceptual distinction between in-context learning and fine tuning blurs: both are methods to condition the model on previously observed tokens.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Sparse Orthogonal Variational Inference for Gaussian Processes

We introduce a new interpretation of sparse variational approximations for Gaussian processes using inducing points, which can lead to more scalable algorithms than previous methods. It is based on decomposing a Gaussian process as a sum of two independent processes: one spanned by a finite basis of inducing points and the other capturing the remaining variation. We show that this formulation recovers existing approximations and at the same time allows to obtain tighter lower bounds on the marginal likelihood and new stochastic variational inference algorithms. We demonstrate the efficiency of these algorithms in several Gaussian process models ranging from standard regression to multi-class classification using (deep) convolutional Gaussian processes and report state-of-the-art results on CIFAR-10 among purely GP-based models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Optimal Preconditioning and Fisher Adaptive Langevin Sampling

We define an optimal preconditioning for the Langevin diffusion by analytically optimizing the expected squared jumped distance. This yields as the optimal preconditioning an inverse Fisher information covariance matrix, where the covariance matrix is computed as the outer product of log target gradients averaged under the target. We apply this result to the Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) and derive a computationally efficient adaptive MCMC scheme that learns the preconditioning from the history of gradients produced as the algorithm runs. We show in several experiments that the proposed algorithm is very robust in high dimensions and significantly outperforms other methods, including a closely related adaptive MALA scheme that learns the preconditioning with standard adaptive MCMC as well as the position-dependent Riemannian manifold MALA sampler.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Kalman Filter for Online Classification of Non-Stationary Data

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Double Control Variates for Gradient Estimation in Discrete Latent Variable Models

Stochastic gradient-based optimisation for discrete latent variable models is challenging due to the high variance of gradients. We introduce a variance reduction technique for score function estimators that makes use of double control variates. These control variates act on top of a main control variate, and try to further reduce the variance of the overall estimator. We develop a double control variate for the REINFORCE leave-one-out estimator using Taylor expansions. For training discrete latent variable models, such as variational autoencoders with binary latent variables, our approach adds no extra computational cost compared to standard training with the REINFORCE leave-one-out estimator. We apply our method to challenging high-dimensional toy examples and training variational autoencoders with binary latent variables. We show that our estimator can have lower variance compared to other state-of-the-art estimators.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Variance Reduction for Metropolis-Hastings Samplers

We introduce a general framework that constructs estimators with reduced variance for random walk Metropolis and Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithms. The resulting estimators require negligible computational cost and are derived in a post-process manner utilising all proposal values of the Metropolis algorithms. Variance reduction is achieved by producing control variates through the approximate solution of the Poisson equation associated with the target density of the Markov chain. The proposed method is based on approximating the target density with a Gaussian and then utilising accurate solutions of the Poisson equation for the Gaussian case. This leads to an estimator that uses two key elements: (i) a control variate from the Poisson equation that contains an intractable expectation under the proposal distribution, (ii) a second control variate to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimate of this latter intractable expectation. Simulated data examples are used to illustrate the impressive variance reduction achieved in the Gaussian target case and the corresponding effect when target Gaussianity assumption is violated. Real data examples on Bayesian logistic regression and stochastic volatility models verify that considerable variance reduction is achieved with negligible extra computational cost.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Entropy-based adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample from an unnormalized probability distribution. A leapfrog integrator is commonly used to implement HMC in practice, but its performance can be sensitive to the choice of mass matrix used therein. We develop a gradient-based algorithm that allows for the adaptation of the mass matrix by encouraging the leapfrog integrator to have high acceptance rates while also exploring all dimensions jointly. In contrast to previous work that adapt the hyperparameters of HMC using some form of expected squared jumping distance, the adaptation strategy suggested here aims to increase sampling efficiency by maximizing an approximation of the proposal entropy. We illustrate that using multiple gradients in the HMC proposal can be beneficial compared to a single gradient-step in Metropolis-adjusted Langevin proposals. Empirical evidence suggests that the adaptation method can outperform different versions of HMC schemes by adjusting the mass matrix to the geometry of the target distribution and by providing some control on the integration time.

stat.CO↗