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Michel Royer

Publications and source records attributed to Michel Royer.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

A Two-Stage Operating Room Allocation Framework for Reducing Surgical Waiting Lists in Public Hospitals

Operating-room allocation is a major challenge for public hospitals with limited surgical capacity and large elective waiting lists. This work proposes a two-stage operating-room allocation framework for specialty-block scheduling environments. The methodology combines a mixed-integer linear programming model for medical specialty block allocation with a priority-based patient allocation procedure. The framework was evaluated through one-week and multi-week simulation scenarios using parameters estimated from historical surgical and waiting-list data. The proposed methodology was compared against an integrated mixed-integer linear programming baseline adapted from the literature under realistic operational disruptions, including failed patient confirmations and surgery suspensions. Results show that the proposed framework achieves a more balanced distribution between offered and demanded surgical time across specialties while maintaining high operating-room utilization and substantially lower computational times than the integrated baseline. In the 20-week scenario, the proposed methodology achieved lower waiting times and operated a larger number of patients while preserving operational flexibility. These results suggest that decomposition-based operating-room allocation strategies provide a practical and computationally efficient alternative for reducing surgical waiting lists in public hospitals.

math.OC

Forecasting Seasonal Peaks of Pediatric Respiratory Infections Using an Alert-Based Model Combining SIR Dynamics and Historical Trends in Santiago, Chile

Acute respiratory infections (ARI) are a major cause of pediatric hospitalization in Chile, producing marked winter increases in demand that challenge hospital planning. This study presents an alert-based forecasting model to predict the timing and magnitude of ARI hospitalization peaks in Santiago. The approach integrates a seasonal SIR model with a historical mobile predictor, activated by a derivative-based alert system that detects early epidemic growth. Daily hospitalization data from DEIS were smoothed using a 15-day moving average and Savitzky-Golay filtering, and parameters were estimated using a penalized loss function to reduce sensitivity to noise. Retrospective evaluation and real-world implementation in major Santiago pediatric hospitals during 2023 and 2024 show that peak date can be anticipated about one month before the event and predicted with high accuracy two weeks in advance. Peak magnitude becomes informative roughly ten days before the peak and stabilizes one week prior. The model provides a practical and interpretable tool for hospital preparedness.

stat.AP