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Michela Mapelli

Publications and source records attributed to Michela Mapelli.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
arXiv2024

A machine learning framework to generate star cluster realisations

Context. Computational astronomy has reached the stage where running a gravitational N-body simulation of a stellar system, such as a Milky Way star cluster, is computationally feasible, but a major limiting factor that remains is the ability to set up physically realistic initial conditions. Aims. We aim to obtain realistic initial conditions for N-body simulations by taking advantage of machine learning, with emphasis on reproducing small-scale interstellar distance distributions. Methods. The computational bottleneck for obtaining such distance distributions is the hydrodynamics of star formation, which ultimately determine the features of the stars, including positions, velocities, and masses. To mitigate this issue, we introduce a new method for sampling physically realistic initial conditions from a limited set of simulations using Gaussian processes. Results. We evaluated the resulting sets of initial conditions based on whether they meet tests for physical realism. We find that direct sampling based on the learned distribution of the star features fails to reproduce binary systems. Consequently, we show that physics-informed sampling algorithms solve this issue, as they are capable of generating realisations closer to reality.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2024

Binary black hole mergers from Population III star clusters

Binary black holes (BBHs) born from the evolution of Population III (Pop. III) stars are one of the main high-redshift targets for next-generation ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors. Their predicted initial mass function and lack of metals make them the ideal progenitors of black holes above the upper edge of the pair-instability mass gap, i.e. with a mass higher than $\approx{}134$ (241) M$_\odot$ for stars that become (do not become) chemically homogeneous during their evolution. Here, we investigate the effects of cluster dynamics on the mass function of BBHs born from Pop. III stars, by considering the main uncertainties on Pop. III star mass function, orbital properties of binary systems, star cluster's mass and disruption time. In our dynamical models, at least $\sim$5% and up to 100% BBH mergers in Pop. III star clusters have primary mass $m_1$ above the upper edge of the pair-instability mass gap. In contrast, only $\lesssim {} 3$% isolated BBH mergers have primary mass above the gap, unless their progenitors evolved as chemically homogeneous stars. The lack of systems with primary and/or secondary mass inside the gap defines a zone of avoidance with sharp boundaries in the primary mass - mass ratio plane. Finally, we estimate the merger rate density of BBHs and, in the most optimistic case, we find a maximum of $\mathcal{R}\approx200\,{\rm Gpc^{-3}\,yr^{-1}}$ at $z\sim15$ for BBHs formed via dynamical capture. For comparison, the merger rate density of isolated Pop. III BBHs is $\mathcal{R}\leq{}10\,{\rm Gpc^{-3}\,yr^{-1}}$, for the same model of Pop. III star formation history.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2024

Hierarchical binary black hole mergers in globular clusters: mass function and evolution with redshift

Hierarchical black hole (BH) mergers are one of the most straightforward mechanisms to produce BHs inside and above the pair-instability mass gap. Here, we investigate the impact of globular cluster (GC) evolution on hierarchical mergers, and we account for the uncertainties related to BH mass pairing functions on the predicted primary BH mass, mass ratio and spin distribution. We find that the evolution of the host GC quenches the hierarchical BH assembly already at the third generation, mainly due to cluster expansion powered by a central BH sub-system. Hierarchical mergers match the primary BH mass distribution from GW events for $m_1 > 50 \, \mathrm{M_{\odot}}$, regardless of the assumed BH pairing function. At lower masses, however, different pairing functions lead to dramatically different predictions on the primary BH mass merger rate density. We find that the primary BH mass distribution evolves with redshift, with a larger contribution from mergers with $m_1 \geq 30 \, \mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ for $z\geq{}2$. Finally, we calculate the mixing fraction of BBHs from GCs and isolated binary systems. Our predictions are very sensitive to the spins, which favor a large fraction ($>0.6$) of BBHs born in GCs, in order to reproduce misaligned spin observations.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2024

Eccentric black hole mergers via three-body interactions in young, globular, and nuclear star clusters

Eccentric mergers are a signature of the dynamical formation channel of binary black holes (BBHs) in dense stellar environments and hierarchical triple systems. Here, we investigate the formation of eccentric mergers via binary-single interactions by means of $2.5\times10^{5}$ direct $\textit{N}$-body simulations. Our simulations include post-Newtonian terms up to the 2.5th order and model the typical environment of young (YSCs), globular (GCs), and nuclear star clusters (NSCs). Around $0.6\%$ ($1\%$) of our mergers in NSCs (GCs) have an eccentricity ${>0.1}$ when the emitted gravitational wave frequency is 10 Hz in the source frame, while in YSCs this fraction rises to $1.6\%$. Approximately $\sim63\%$ of these mergers are produced by chaotic, resonant interactions where temporary binaries are continuously formed and destroyed, while $\sim31\%$ arise from an almost direct collision of two black holes (BHs). Lastly, $\sim 6\%$ of these eccentric mergers occur in temporary hierarchical triples. We find that binaries undergoing a flyby generally develop smaller tilt angles with respect to exchanges. This result challenges the idea that perfectly isotropic spin orientations are produced by dynamics. The environment dramatically affects BH retention: $0\%$, $3.1\%$, and $19.9\%$ of all the remnant BHs remain in YSCs, GCs, and NSCs, respectively. The fraction of massive BHs also depends on the host cluster properties, with pair-instability ($60\leq\,$M$_{\rm BH}$/M$_{\odot}\leq$100) and intermediate-mass (M$_{\rm BH}\geq$100$\,$M$_{\odot}$) BHs accounting for approximately $\sim44\%$ and $1.6\%$ of the mergers in YSCs, $\sim33\%$ and $0.7\%$ in GCs, and $\sim28\%$ and $0.4\%$ in NSCs, respectively.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2024

Evidence for the evolution of black hole mass function with redshift

We investigate the joint primary mass, mass ratio, and redshift observed distribution of astrophysical black holes using the gravitational wave events detected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration and included in the third gravitational wave transient catalogue. We reconstruct this distribution using Bayesian non-parametric methods, which are data-driven models able to infer arbitrary probability densities under minimal mathematical assumptions. We find evidence for the evolution with redshift of both the primary mass and mass ratio distribution: our analysis shows the presence of two distinct sub-populations in the primary mass - redshift plane, with the lighter population, $\lesssim$ 20 $M_\odot$, disappearing at higher redshifts, $z > 0.4$. The mass ratio distribution shows no support for symmetric binaries. The observed population of coalescing binary black holes evolves with look-back time, suggesting a trend in metallicity with redshift and/or the presence of multiple, redshift-dependent formation channels.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2024

Binary black hole mergers from Population III stars: uncertainties from star formation and binary star properties

Population III (Pop. III) binary stars likely produced the first stellar-born binary black hole (BBH) mergers in the Universe. Here, we quantify the main sources of uncertainty for the merger rate density evolution and mass spectrum of Pop. III BBHs by considering four different formation histories and 11 models of the initial orbital properties of Pop. III binary stars. The uncertainty on the orbital properties affects the BBH merger rate density by up to two orders of magnitude, models with shorter orbital periods leading to higher BBH merger rates. The uncertainty on the star formation history has a substantial impact on both the shape and the normalisation of the BBH merger rate density: the peak of the merger rate density shifts from $z\sim{8}$ up to $z\sim{16}$ depending on the assumed star formation rate, while the maximum BBH merger rate density for our fiducial binary population model spans from $\sim{2}$ to $\sim{30}$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$. The typical BBH masses are not affected by the star formation rate model and only mildly influenced by the binary population parameters. The primary black holes born from Pop. III stars tend to be rather massive ($30-40$ M$_\odot$) with respect to those born from metal-rich stars ($8-10$ M$_\odot$). We estimate that the Einstein Telescope will detect $10-10^4$ Pop. III BBH mergers per year, depending on the star formation history and binary star properties.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2023

A Study of Systematics on the Cosmological Inference of the Hubble Constant from Gravitational Wave Standard Sirens

Gravitational waves (GWs) from compact binary coalescences (CBCs) can constrain the cosmic expansion of the universe. In the absence of an associated electromagnetic counterpart, the spectral sirens method exploits the relation between the detector frame and the source frame masses to jointly infer the parameters of the mass distribution of black holes (BH) and the cosmic expansion parameter $H_0$. This technique relies on the choice of the parametrization for the source mass population of BHs observed in binary black holes merger (BBHs). Using astrophysically motivated BBH populations, we study the possible systematic effects affecting the inferred value for $H_0$ when using heuristic mass models like a broken power law, a power law plus peak and a multi-peak distributions. We find that with 2000 detected GW mergers, the resulting $H_0$ obtained with a spectral sirens analysis can be biased up to $3σ$. The main sources of this bias come from the failure of the heuristic mass models used so far to account for a possible redshift evolution of the mass distribution and from their inability to model unexpected mass features. We conclude that future dark siren GW cosmology analyses should make use of source mass models able to account for redshift evolution and capable to adjust to unforeseen mass features.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2023

Impact of gas hardening on the population properties of hierarchical black hole mergers in AGN disks

Hierarchical black hole (BH) mergers in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are unique among formation channels of binary black holes (BBHs) because they are likely associated with electromagnetic counterparts and can efficiently lead to the mass growth of BHs. Here, we explore the impact of gas accretion and migration traps on the evolution of BBHs in AGNs. We have developed a new fast semi-analytic model, which allows us to explore the parameter space while capturing the main physical processes involved. We find that effective exchange of energy and angular momentum between the BBH and the surrounding gas (hereafter, gas hardening) during inspiral greatly enhances the efficiency of hierarchical mergers, leading to the formation of intermediate-mass BHs (up to 10.000 solar masses) and triggering spin alignment. Moreover, our models with efficient gas hardening show both an anti-correlation between BBH mass ratio and effective spin, and a correlation between primary BH mass and effective spin. In contrast, if gas hardening is inefficient, the hierarchical merger chain is already truncated after the first two or three generations. We compare the BBH population in AGNs with other dynamical channels as well as isolated binary evolution.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

Interpretable machine learning for finding intermediate-mass black holes

Definitive evidence that globular clusters (GCs) host intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) is elusive. Machine learning (ML) models trained on GC simulations can in principle predict IMBH host candidates based on observable features. This approach has two limitations: first, an accurate ML model is expected to be a black box due to complexity; second, despite our efforts to realistically simulate GCs, the simulation physics or initial conditions may fail to fully reflect reality. Therefore our training data may be biased, leading to a failure in generalization on observational data. Both the first issue -- explainability/interpretability -- and the second -- out of distribution generalization and fairness -- are active areas of research in ML. Here we employ techniques from these fields to address them: we use the anchors method to explain an XGBoost classifier; we also independently train a natively interpretable model using Certifiably Optimal RulE ListS (CORELS). The resulting model has a clear physical meaning, but loses some performance with respect to XGBoost. We evaluate potential candidates in real data based not only on classifier predictions but also on their similarity to the training data, measured by the likelihood of a kernel density estimation model. This measures the realism of our simulated data and mitigates the risk that our models may produce biased predictions by working in extrapolation. We apply our classifiers to real GCs, obtaining a predicted classification, a measure of the confidence of the prediction, an out-of-distribution flag, a local rule explaining the prediction of XGBoost and a global rule from CORELS.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2023

Landscape of stellar-mass black-hole spectroscopy with third-generation gravitational-wave detectors

Gravitational-wave black-hole spectroscopy provides a unique opportunity to test the strong-field regime of gravity and the nature of the final object formed in the aftermath of a merger. Here we investigate the prospects for black-hole spectroscopy with third-generation gravitational-wave detectors, in particular the Einstein Telescope in different configurations, possibly in combination with Cosmic Explorer. Using a state-of-the-art population model for stellar-origin binary black holes informed by LIGO Virgo-KAGRA data, we compute the average number of expected events for precision black-hole spectroscopy using a Fisher-matrix analysis. We perform our analysis on the dominant mode (2, 2, 0) and a set of subdominant modes [(3, 3, 0), (2, 1, 0), (4, 4, 0)] using amplitude and phase fits corresponding to the aligned spin configurations. We find that Einstein Telescope will measure two independent quasinormal modes within O(1)% (resp. O(10)%) relative uncertainty for at least O(1) (resp. O(500)) events per year, with similar performances in the case of a single triangular configuration or two L-shaped detectors with same arm length. A 15-km arm-length configuration would improve rates by roughly a factor of two relative to a 10-km arm-length configuration. When operating in synergy with Cosmic Explorer the rates will improve significantly, reaching few-percent accuracy for O(100) events per year.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2023

One to many: comparing single gravitational-wave events to astrophysical populations

Gravitational-wave observations have revealed sources whose unusual properties challenge our understanding of compact-binary formation. Inferring the formation processes that are best able to reproduce such events may therefore yield key astrophysical insights. A common approach is to count the fraction of synthetic events from a simulated population that are consistent with some real event. Though appealing owing to its simplicity, this approach is flawed because it neglects the full posterior information, depends on an ad-hoc region that defines consistency, and fails for high signal-to-noise detections. We point out that a statistically consistent solution is to compute the posterior odds between two simulated populations, which crucially is a relative measure, and show how to include the effect of observational biases by conditioning on source detectability. Applying the approach to several gravitational-wave events and simulated populations, we assess the degree to which we can conclude model preference not just between distinct formation pathways but also between subpopulations within a given pathway.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

Massive binary black holes from Population II and III stars

Population III stars, born from the primordial gas in the Universe, lose a negligible fraction of their mass via stellar winds and possibly follow a top-heavy mass function. Hence, they have often been regarded as the ideal progenitors of massive black holes (BHs), even above the pair instability mass gap. Here, we evolve a large set of Population III binary stars (metallicity $Z=10^{-11}$) with our population-synthesis code SEVN, and compare them with Population II binary stars ($Z=10^{-4}$). In our models, the lower edge of the pair-instability mass gap corresponds to a BH mass of $\approx{86}$ ($\approx{91}$) M$_\odot$ for single Population III (II) stars. Overall, we find only mild differences between the properties of binary BHs (BBHs) born from Population III and II stars, especially if we adopt the same initial mass function and initial orbital properties. Most BBH mergers born from Population III and II stars have primary BH mass below the pair-instability gap, and the maximum secondary BH mass is $ < 50$ M$_\odot$. Only up to $\approx{3.3}$% ($\approx{0.09}$%) BBH mergers from Population III (II) progenitors have primary mass above the gap. Unlike metal-rich binary stars, the main formation channel of BBH mergers from Population III and II stars involves only stable mass transfer episodes in our fiducial model.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2023

Dynamical formation of $Gaia$ BH1 in a young star cluster

$Gaia$ BH1, the first quiescent black hole (BH) detected from $Gaia$ data, poses a challenge to most binary evolution models: its current mass ratio is $\approx{0.1}$, and its orbital period seems to be too long for a post-common envelope system and too short for a non-interacting binary system. Here, we explore the hypothesis that $Gaia$ BH1 formed through dynamical interactions in a young star cluster (YSC). We study the properties of BH-main sequence (MS) binaries formed in YSCs with initial mass $3\times{}10^2-3\times{}10^4$ M$_\odot$ at solar metallicity, by means of $3.5\times{}10^4$ direct $N$-body simulations coupled with binary population synthesis. For comparison, we also run a sample of isolated binary stars with the same binary population synthesis code used in the dynamical models. We find that BH-MS systems that form via dynamical exchanges populate the region corresponding to the main orbital properties of $Gaia$ BH1 (period, eccentricity, and masses). In contrast, none of our isolated binary systems matches the orbital period and MS mass of $Gaia$ BH1. Our best matching $Gaia$ BH1--like system forms via repeated dynamical exchanges and collisions involving the BH progenitor star, before it undergoes core collapse. YSCs are at least two orders of magnitude more efficient in forming $Gaia$ BH1--like systems than isolated binary evolution.

astro-ph.SR↗
arXiv2023

The Dragon-II simulations -- I. Evolution of single and binary compact objects in star clusters with up to 1 million stars

We present the first results of the \textsc{Dragon-II} simulations, a suite of 19 $N$-body simulations of star clusters with up to $10^6$ stars, with up to $33\%$ of them initially paired in binaries. In this work, we describe the main evolution of the clusters and their compact objects (COs). All \textsc{Dragon-II} clusters form in their centre a black hole (BH) subsystem with a density $10-100$ times larger than the stellar density, with the cluster core containing $50-80\%$ of the whole BH population. In all models, the BH average mass steeply decreases as a consequence of BH burning, reaching values $\langle m_{\rm BH}\rangle < 15$ M$_\odot$ within $10-30$ relaxation times. Generally, our clusters retain only BHs lighter than $30$ M$_\odot$ over $30$ relaxation times. Looser clusters retain a higher binary fraction, because in such environments binaries are less likely disrupted by dynamical encounters. We find that BH-main sequence star binaries have properties similar to recently observed systems. Double CO binaries (DCOBs) ejected from the cluster exhibit larger mass ratios and heavier primary masses than ejected binaries hosting a single CO (SCOBs). Ejected SCOBs have BH masses $m_{\rm BH} = 3-20$ M$_\odot$, definitely lower than those in DCOBs ($m_{\rm BH} = 10-100$ M$_\odot$).

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2023

Compact object mergers: exploring uncertainties from stellar and binary evolution with SEVN

Population-synthesis codes are an unique tool to explore the parameter space of massive binary star evolution and binary compact object (BCO) formation. Most population-synthesis codes are based on the same stellar evolution model, limiting our ability to explore the main uncertainties. Here, we present the new version of the code SEVN, which overcomes this issue by interpolating the main stellar properties from a set of pre-computed evolutionary tracks. We describe the new interpolation and adaptive time-step algorithms of SEVN, and the main upgrades on single and binary evolution. With SEVN, we evolved $1.2\times10^9$ binaries in the metallicity range $0.0001\leq Z \leq 0.03$, exploring a number of models for electron-capture, core-collapse and pair-instability supernovae, different assumptions for common envelope, stability of mass transfer, quasi-homogeneous evolution and stellar tides. We find that stellar evolution has a dramatic impact on the formation of single and binary compact objects. Just by slightly changing the overshooting parameter ($λ_{\rm ov}=0.4,0.5$) and the pair-instability model, the maximum mass of a black hole can vary from $\approx{60}$ to $\approx{100}\ \mathrm{M}_\odot$. Furthermore, the formation channels of BCOs and the merger efficiency we obtain with SEVN show significant differences with respect to the results of other population-synthesis codes, even when the same binary-evolution parameters are used. For example, the main traditional formation channel of BCOs is strongly suppressed in our models: at high metallicity ($Z\gtrsim{0.01}$) only $<20$% of the merging binary black holes and binary neutron stars form via this channel, while other authors found fractions $>70$%. The local BCO merger rate density of our fiducial models is consistent with the most recent estimates by the LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA collaboration.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

Pre-merger alert to detect the very-high-energy prompt emission from binary neutron-star mergers: Einstein Telescope and Cherenkov Telescope Array synergy

The current generation of very-high-energy $gamma-$ray (VHE; E above 30 GeV) detectors (MAGIC and H.E.S.S.) have recently demonstrated the ability to detect the afterglow emission of GRBs. However, the GRB prompt emission, typically observed in the 10 keV-10 MeV band, has so far remained undetected at higher energies. Here, we investigate the perspectives of multi-messenger observations to detect the prompt emission of short GRBs in VHE. Considering binary neutron star mergers as progenitors of short GRBs, we evaluate the joint detection efficiency of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) observing in synergy with the third generation of gravitational wave detectors, such as the Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE). In particular, we evaluate the expected capabilities to detect and localize gravitational wave events in the inspiral phase and to provide an early warning alert able to drive the VHE search. We compute the amount of possible joint detections by considering several observational strategies, and demonstrate that the sensitivities of CTA make the detection of the VHE emission possible even if it is several orders fainter than the one observed at 10 keV-10 MeV. We discuss the results in terms of possible scenarios of production of VHE photons from binary neutron star mergers by considering GRB prompt and afterglow emissions.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

Science with the Einstein Telescope: a comparison of different designs

The Einstein Telescope (ET), the European project for a third-generation gravitational-wave detector, has a reference configuration based on a triangular shape consisting of three nested detectors with 10 km arms, where in each arm there is a `xylophone' configuration made of an interferometer tuned toward high frequencies, and an interferometer tuned toward low frequencies and working at cryogenic temperature. Here, we examine the scientific perspectives under possible variations of this reference design. We perform a detailed evaluation of the science case for a single triangular geometry observatory, and we compare it with the results obtained for a network of two L-shaped detectors (either parallel or misaligned) located in Europe, considering different choices of arm-length for both the triangle and the 2L geometries. We also study how the science output changes in the absence of the low-frequency instrument, both for the triangle and the 2L configurations. We examine a broad class of simple `metrics' that quantify the science output, related to compact binary coalescences, multi-messenger astronomy and stochastic backgrounds, and we then examine the impact of different detector designs on a more specific set of scientific objectives.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2023

Astrophysics with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be a transformative experiment for gravitational wave astronomy, and, as such, it will offer unique opportunities to address many key astrophysical questions in a completely novel way. The synergy with ground-based and space-born instruments in the electromagnetic domain, by enabling multi-messenger observations, will add further to the discovery potential of LISA. The next decade is crucial to prepare the astrophysical community for LISA's first observations. This review outlines the extensive landscape of astrophysical theory, numerical simulations, and astronomical observations that are instrumental for modeling and interpreting the upcoming LISA datastream. To this aim, the current knowledge in three main source classes for LISA is reviewed; ultracompact stellar-mass binaries, massive black hole binaries, and extreme or intermediate mass ratio inspirals. The relevant astrophysical processes and the established modeling techniques are summarized. Likewise, open issues and gaps in our understanding of these sources are highlighted, along with an indication of how LISA could help making progress in the different areas. New research avenues that LISA itself, or its joint exploitation with upcoming studies in the electromagnetic domain, will enable, are also illustrated. Improvements in modeling and analysis approaches, such as the combination of numerical simulations and modern data science techniques, are discussed. This review is intended to be a starting point for using LISA as a new discovery tool for understanding our Universe.

gr-qc↗