arXiv subjects

Michele Bosi

Publications and source records attributed to Michele Bosi.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Shaping binary black hole merger efficiency with gravitational wave observations

Gravitational wave (GW) astronomy offers unprecedented insights into binary black hole (BBH) coalescence. However, many of the key quantities involved remain inaccessible to direct observations. The BBH merger rate density is deeply linked to both the merger efficiency and the distribution of delay time between binary formation and merger, neither of which is directly constrained by observations. Disentangling their impact on the merger rate represents a highly non-trivial endeavour. Here we present a semi-parametric BBH population model, based on population synthesis simulations of both isolated and dynamically-formed BBHs, anchored on an observation-driven, metallicity-dependent star formation history. We parametrise the merger efficiency of these two formation channels, fitting the model to GW events from the Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog 5.0 within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Our analysis suggests that the isolated BBH merger efficiency should be lowered by a factor $\mathcal{O}(10)$ relative to standard population synthesis results. The dynamical channel requires an efficiency more than an order of magnitude larger than the isolated one to reproduce current GW observations. Nevertheless, we find that the two channels provide comparable contributions to the observed number of events. Finally, we introduce a parametrisation for the delay time distribution of the isolated BBHs. We derive a distribution consistent with the observed local merger rate and show its degeneracy with the merger efficiency.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

StAGE: Stellar Archaeology-driven Galaxy Evolution II. Binary Black Hole Mergers in Quiescent Galaxies and their Star-forming Progenitors

We apply StAGE, a data-driven galaxy-evolution framework based on stellar archaeology, to study binary black hole (BBH) mergers in quiescent galaxies (QGs) and their star-forming progenitors. We combine StAGE star-formation and chemical-enrichment histories with pre-computed SEVN binary population-synthesis catalogs to derive the BBH merger-rate density, its dependence on intrinsic binary and host-galaxy properties, and the associated stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background. We assess uncertainties related to stellar-archaeology prescriptions, common-envelope evolution, and $α$-enhanced abundances. We find that QGs and their progenitors can contribute a sizeable fraction of the cosmic BBH merger rate. For most of the binary-evolution prescriptions explored here, we highlight a tension with the local LVK-inferred merger rates, underscoring the need to revisit some assumptions in the underlying modeling. Most BBHs form at moderately subsolar metallicities, $Z\lesssim Z_\odot/3$, while their merger-time hosts typically have stellar masses $M_\star\lesssim10^{11}\,M_\odot$. At $z\gtrsim2$, hosts lie mainly on the galaxy main sequence, whereas starbursting and quenching descendants contribute increasingly toward lower redshift. Isolated binaries broadly reproduce the observed bulk of the primary- and chirp-mass distributions, but the predictions decline rapidly above $\sim 40-50\,M_\odot$, providing little support for the highest-mass systems inferred by LVK. Dynamical formation in young and globular clusters can populate this regime, but also increases the total merger-rate density, exacerbating the tension with LVK for the fiducial cluster normalizations adopted here. Finally, the predicted stochastic background approaches the projected sensitivity of planned LVK upgrades and lies within reach of the Einstein Telescope.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Breaking binary formation mechanism degeneracies with gravitational wave clustering

Thanks to the almost 400 gravitational wave events detected, we are currently able to grasp the fundamental features of black hole mass, spin, and distance distributions. However, such a fast increase in the precision of the measurements does not necessarily correspond to a better theoretical understanding of gravitational wave sources, especially in current scenarios where the number of free parameters is significantly larger than the number of inferred properties of the black hole population. In this work, we showcase how the landscape of theoretical models can be chipped away by complementary data-analysis strategies, in particular by studying the statistical properties of gravitational wave anisotropic distribution. Specifically, we show how gravitational wave clustering is sensitive to two unique features of each binary formation mechanism: the time-delay distribution and the properties of the binary hosts. First, we consider a model-agnostic scenario and show the impact that different time-delay distributions have on the gravitational wave bias. Then, we consider a realistic scenario where gravitational wave events are sourced either by isolated binary evolution or dynamical processes in globular clusters, and study how the gravitational wave bias is unique sensitive to the specific properties of the environment. In both scenarios, we show how the cross-correlation between galaxy and gravitational wave catalogs is able to distinguish between models with different time delays or with different binary sub-populations originated in specific formation channels.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

A binary black hole merger rate comparison within the same metallicity - star formation rate framework

Recent studies have suggested that binary population synthesis models, when coupled with observationally based, metallicity-dependent star formation rate density, overpredict the observed local binary black hole (BBH) merger rate density. The significance of this tension might vary depending on the specific code and parameters adopted. Thus, a more extensive exploration of the parameter space is required. In this work, we perform such an extended analysis by considering BBH merger efficiencies coming from multiple population synthesis codes across a wide range of physical assumptions and parameter's choices. We adopt an observationally motivated metallicity distribution, exploring several variations to encompass observational uncertainties. We find that the tension persists: in almost all our metallicity variations, 14 out of 18, none of the models considered predicts a local BBH merger rate within or below the observed $90\%$ credible interval. Even in the four most favorable metallicity variations, only $\lesssim 10\%$ of the models are consistent with the observational constraints. We show that such a discrepancy originates from the low-metallicity tail contributed by low-mass galaxies and starbursts, as well as from the use of iron abundance rather than oxygen abundance in deriving the metallicity distribution. Even literature models that predict moderate BBH merger rates shift toward higher merger rates when combined with observationally motivated metallicity distributions. Although not comprehensive of all the literature models, our analysis suggests that models featuring stronger natal kicks and/or non-standard treatments of mass-transfer and common-envelope physics provide the most promising avenue for alleviating the tension with the observed local BBH merger rate.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Using SKAO to Understand the Clustering of Gravitational Wave Sources

Coalescing Binary Black Holes (BBHs) trace the Large-Scale Structure (LSS) of the Universe, and their clustering properties can be extracted from Gravitational Wave (GW) data. Next-generation detectors, such as the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer, will enable statistical studies of GW sources thanks to the massive number of detected events. However, such events will still suffer from significant instrumental and theoretical uncertainties. Cross-correlating GW maps with other LSS surveys provides a promising strategy to mitigate these limitations. The SKA-Mid intensity mapping and radio continuum surveys offer ideal datasets for cross-correlation studies with GWs (SKAO$\times$ET2CE). Their wide sky coverage and deep redshift sensitivity will allow precise probing of the epochs and environments where stellar BBHs form most efficiently. In this chapter, we forecast the potential of cross-correlation angular power spectra to extract information on the distribution and clustering properties of GW events. First, we model the number density and bias of three independent tracers: GW sources, neutral hydrogen intensity maps, and radio galaxies. We estimate the constraining power of SKA-Mid$\times$ET2CE on the GW clustering bias, which carries information on the origin of GW progenitors, e.g., whether they formed through stellar evolution or are primordial black holes. Finally, we develop a semi-analytic model for GW events hosted by SKAO galaxies as a function of the time-delay distribution between the binary formation and merger, which is still largely uncertain to date. We forecast the signal-to-noise ratio of their cross-correlation with SKA-Mid, and demonstrate that SKA-Mid$\times$ET2CE will foster our understanding of the time-delay distribution.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Can current models predict the local black hole merger rate?

After four observational runs, the Ligo-Virgo-Kagra collaboration estimated a local binary black hole (BBH) merger rate density of $R_{0,\textrm{LVK}}\simeq 14-26\,\textrm{Gpc}^{-3}\,\textrm{yr}^{-1}$ within the 90% credible interval. Some previous studies already pointed out that, when a realistic evolution of the metallicity-dependent cosmic star formation rate density (SFRD) is adopted, theoretical models predict a local BBH merger rate density that exceeds the observed value by at least a factor of $\sim 10$ (Sgalletta et al. 2025). In this paper, we confirm and strengthen this claim by constructing an empirical model for the SFRD and metallicity evolution that includes a correction accounting for iron abundance. The adopted metallicity relation is flexible, enabling us to bracket the wide range of observational uncertainties. We show that, even under the most conservative assumptions regarding both the SFRD and the metallicity relation, the local BBH merger rate density is overestimated by a factor $> 10$. Attempts to reconcile the predicted and observed merger rates by modifying only the metallicity-dependent SFRD would require unrealistically high metallicities ($Z>Z_\odot$) even in low-mass galaxies at high redshift. This finding indicates that revisions to the treatment of stellar and binary evolution are necessary to achieve consistency between theoretical predictions and observations. We suggest that even a modest steepening of the delay-time distribution could help alleviate this tension.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Semi-empirical Framework of Supermassive Black Hole Evolution: Highlighting a possible tension between Demographics and Gravitational Wave Background

The evolution of the supermassive Black Hole (BH) population across cosmic times remains a central unresolved issue in modern astrophysics, due to the many noticeable uncertainties in the involved physical processes that span a huge range of spatial, temporal and energy scales. Here we tackle the problem via a semi-empirical approach with minimal assumptions and data-driven inputs. This is based on a continuity plus Smoluchowski equation framework that allows to unitarily describe the two primary modes of BH growth: gas accretion and binary mergers. Key quantities related to the latter processes are incorporated through educated parameterizations, and then constrained in a Bayesian setup from joint observational estimates of the local BH mass function, of the large-scale BH clustering, and of the nano-Hz stochastic gravitational wave (GW) background measured from Pulsar Timimg Array (PTA) experiments. We find that the BH accretion-related parameters are strongly dependent on the local BH mass function determination: higher normalizations and flatter high-mass slopes in the latter imply lower radiative efficiencies and mean Eddington ratios with a stronger redshift evolution. Additionally, the binary BH merger rate is estimated to be a fraction $\lesssim 10^{-1}$ of the galaxy merger rate derived from galaxy pairs counts by \texttt{JWST}, and constrained not to exceed the latter at $\gtrsim 2σ$. Relatedly, we highlight hints of a possible tension between current constraints on BH demographics and the interpretation of the nano-Hz GW background as predominantly caused by binary BH mergers. Specifically, we bound the latter's contribution to $\lesssim 30-50\%$ at $\sim 3σ$, suggesting that additional astrophysical/cosmological sources are needed to explain the residual part of the signal measured by PTA experiments.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Cosmography via stellar archaeology of low-redshift early-type galaxies from SDSS

Cosmic chronometers offer a model-independent way to trace the expansion history of the Universe via the dating of passively evolving objects. This enables testing the validity of cosmological models without concrete assumptions of their energy content. The main goal of this work is to derive model-independent constraints on the Hubble parameter up to $z \sim 0.4$ using stellar ages from the fitting of Lick index absorption lines in passively evolving galaxies. Contrary to recent related works that rely on finite differences to obtain a discrete measurement of the expansion of the Universe at an average redshift, our goal is to perform a cosmographic fit of $H(z)$ in terms of the Hubble constant ($H_0$) and the deceleration ($q_0$) and jerk ($j_0$) parameters. We carefully select spectra of massive and passively evolving galaxies from the SDSS Legacy Survey. After applying a stacking procedure to ensure a high signal-to-noise ratio, the strength of Lick indices is fit using two stellar population models (TMJ and Knowles) to derive stellar population parameters. A cosmographic fit to the stellar ages is performed, which in turn enables the sampling of the Hubble parameter within the considered redshift range. The baseline result comes from using the TMJ-modelled ages, and it yields a value of $H_0 = 70.0^{+4.1}_{-7.6} \text{ km s}^{-1} \text{ Mpc}^{-1}$ for the Hubble constant, where uncertainties refer only to the statistical treatment of the data. The sampling of the Hubble parameter at $0.05 < z < 0.35$ is competitive with discreet model-independent measurements from the literature. We finally draw attention to an unexpected oscillating pattern in a number of critical indices with respect to redshift, which translates into a similar behaviour in the $t-z$ relations. These features have never been discussed before, although they are present in previous measurements.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

StAGE: Stellar Archaeology-driven Galaxy Evolution

We build a semi-empirical framework of galaxy evolution (dubbed StAGE) firmly grounded on stellar archaeology. The latter provides data-driven prescriptions that, on a population statistical ground, allow to define the age and the star formation history for the progenitors of quiescent galaxies (QGs). We exploit StAGE to compute the cosmic star formation rate (SFR) density contributed by the progenitors of local QGs, and show it to remarkably agree with that estimated for high-$z$ dusty star-forming galaxies which are faint/dark in the NIR, so pointing toward a direct progenitor-descendant connection among these galaxy populations. Furthermore, we argue that by appropriately correcting the observed stellar mass density by the contribution of such NIR-dark progenitors, StAGE recovers a SFR density which is consistent with direct determinations from UV/IR/radio surveys, so substantially alleviating a longstanding tension. Relatedly, we also show how StAGE can provide the average mass and metal assembly history of QGs, and their redshift-dependent statistics. Focusing on the supermassive black holes (BHs) hosted by massive QGs, we exploit StAGE to reconstruct the average BH mass assembly history, the cosmic BH accretion rate density as a function of redshift, and the evolution of the Magorrian-like relationship between the relic stellar and BH masses. All in all, StAGE may constitute a valuable tool to understand via a data-driven, easily expandable, and computationally low-cost approach the co-evolution of QGs and of their hosted supermassive BHs across cosmic times.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

Constraining extended cosmologies with GW$\times$LSS cross-correlations

The rapid development of gravitational wave astronomy provides the unique opportunity of exploring the dynamics of the Universe using clustering properties of coalescing binary black hole mergers. Gravitational wave data, along with information coming from future galaxy surveys, have the potential of shedding light about many open questions in Cosmology, including those regarding the nature of dark matter and dark energy. In this work we explore which combination of gravitational wave and galaxy survey datasets are able to provide the best constraints both on modified gravity theories and on the nature of the very same binary black hole events. In particular, by using the public Boltzmann code \texttt{Multi\_CLASS}, we compare cosmological constraints on popular $Λ$CDM extensions coming from gravitational waves alone and in conjunction with either deep and localized or wide and shallow galaxy surveys. We show that constraints on extensions of General Relativity will be at the same level of existing limits from gravitational waves alone or one order of magnitude better when galaxy surveys are included. Furthermore, cross-correlating both kind of galaxy survey with gravitational waves datasets will allow to confidently rule in or out primordial black holes as dark matter candidate in the majority of the allowed parameter space.

astro-ph.CO↗