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Michele Cappellari

Publications and source records attributed to Michele Cappellari.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

A general spectral solver for the axisymmetric Jeans equations: fast dynamical modelling of galaxies with arbitrary anisotropy

Axisymmetric Jeans modelling is widely used to infer galaxy mass profiles from integral-field kinematics, but existing implementations maintain tractability by adopting highly restricted anisotropy prescriptions. I present a new spectral method that solves the axisymmetric Jeans equations as a two-dimensional boundary-value problem. Remarkably, this breaks the traditional trade-off between model flexibility and computational cost, accommodating completely general anisotropy distributions $β(r,θ)$ while executing significantly faster than standard restrictive techniques. The method relies on three key choices: (i) solving for the intrinsic dispersion $\overline{v_r^2}$ rather than the rapidly varying pressure $ν\overline{v_r^2}$ to improve numerical conditioning; (ii) working in logarithmic radius to efficiently resolve the large dynamic range of galaxies, uniquely matching scale-free (power-law) regimes; and (iii) imposing a Robin outer boundary condition that enforces the correct asymptotic decay on a finite computational domain. Orbit integrations in realistic galaxy potentials motivate spherical alignment of the velocity ellipsoid as a physically plausible default, though the framework easily adapts to other alignments. Validated against exact analytic benchmarks -- including new analytic Jeans solutions derived herein -- the solver recovers intrinsic second moments with high accuracy, showing radially uniform residuals for power-law tests. In practice, it delivers orders-of-magnitude speed-ups over high-accuracy quadrature schemes and is naturally suited to massive GPU parallelization. Released in the public JamPy package, this enables the routine application of highly general Jeans models to large surveys and the extensive parameter-space exploration required for rigorous uncertainty quantification.

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Dynamical Modelling of Galactic Kinematics using Neural Networks

The advent of integral field data has revolutionised the study of galaxy evolution. A key component of this is dynamical modelling methods which have allowed for crucial insights to be made from kinematic data. Despite this importance, most dynamical models make a number of key assumptions which do not hold for real galaxies. These include assumptions about the geometry (axisymmetry or triaxiality), the shape of the velocity ellipsoid, and the shape of the underlying stellar distribution. At the same time, machine learning methods are becoming increasingly powerful, with many applications appearing in astronomy. As a first step towards building new dynamical modelling methods with machine learning, it is important to understand the types of machine learning architectures that are best fit for dynamical modelling. To investigate this, we construct a training set of dynamical models of early-type galaxies using Jeans Anisotropic Modelling (JAM). We then train a neural network on this data using the parameters of JAM and mock photometry as the input. We are able to accurately model JAM galaxies with relatively simple machine learning architectures, leading to a significant speed increase over traditional JAM modelling.

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WISDOM project -- XVIII. Molecular gas distributions and kinematics of three megamaser galaxies

The co-evolution of galaxies and supermassive black holes (SMBHs) underpins our understanding of galaxy evolution, but different methods to measure SMBH masses have only infrequently been cross-checked. We attempt to identify targets to cross-check two of the most accurate methods, megamaser and cold molecular gas dynamics. Three promising galaxies are selected from all those with existing megamaser SMBH mass measurements. We present Atacama Large Millimeter/sub-millimeter Array (ALMA) 12CO(2-1) and 230-GHz continuum observations with angular resolutions of about 0.5". Every galaxy has an extended rotating molecular gas disc and 230-GHz continuum source(s), but all also have irregularities and/or non-axisymmetric features: NGC1194 is highly inclined and has disturbed and lopsided central 12CO(2-1) emission; NGC3393 has a nuclear disc with fairly regular but patchy 12CO(2-1) emission with little gas near the kinematic major axis, faint emission in the very centre and two brighter structures reminiscent of a nuclear ring and/or spiral; NGC5765B has a strong bar and very bright 12CO(2-1) emission concentrated along two bisymmetric offset dust lanes and two bisymmetric nuclear spiral arms. 12CO(2-1) and 12CO(3-2) observations with the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope are compared with the ALMA observations. Because of the disturbed gas kinematics and the impractically long integration times required for higher angular resolution observations, none of the three galaxies is suitable for a future SMBH mass measurement. Nonetheless, increasing the number of molecular gas observations of megamaser galaxies is valuable, and the ubiquitous disturbances suggest a link between large-scale gas properties and the existence of megamasers.

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MAGNUS III: Mild evolution of the total density slope in massive early-type galaxies since z$\sim$1 from dynamical modeling of MUSE integral-field stellar kinematics

We investigate the total mass density slope evolution in massive early-type galaxies (ETGs) over the last 6.5 billion years ($0 < z < 0.75$). We perform a detailed dynamical analysis of approximately 200 ETGs spanning the redshift range $0.24 < z < 0.75$, utilizing spatially resolved stellar kinematics derived from high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) MUSE-DEEP spectroscopy and surface brightness models from high-resolution HST imaging. We constrain mass distributions using the Jeans Anisotropic Modeling (JAM) technique coupled with Multi-Gaussian Expansion (MGE) method. To rigorously constrain evolutionary trends, we combine this intermediate-redshift dataset with a local ETG sample ($z \sim 0.05$) from the MaNGA survey. We adopt dynamical constraints for the local sample derived using an identical homogeneous methodology, ensuring a strictly consistent comparison. We found that the total density profiles of the intermediate-redshift ETG sample are approximately isothermal and exhibit a median mass-weighted total density slope, $<γ_{\rm T}>=2.19 \pm 0.01$ at $ =0.44$, which is shallower than the local baseline of $<γ_{\rm T}> = 2.26 \pm 0.01$ at $ =0.04$. This structural shift corresponds to a redshift gradient of $\mathrm{d} γ_{\rm T}/\mathrm{d} z \approx -0.20 \pm 0.03$, detected at $\sim$5-$σ$ significance. We demonstrate that this trend is robust against model assumptions and persists even when restricting the analysis to high-velocity dispersion systems ($σ_e > 150$ km/s). Our findings are consistent with previous lensing-based studies and in tension with cosmological simulations. The observed steepening suggests that dissipative processes, such as gas-rich accretion and mergers, must play a non-negligible role in the late-stage assembly of massive ETGs.

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Extending the Frontier of Spatially-Resolved Supermassive Black Hole Mass Measurements to at $1\lesssim z\lesssim2$: Simulations with ELT/MICADO High-Resolution Mass Models and HARMONI Integral-Field Stellar Kinematics

Current spatially resolved kinematic measurements of supermassive black hole (SMBH) masses are largely confined to the local Universe (distances $\lesssim100$ Mpc). We investigate the potential of the Extremely Large Telescope's (ELT) first-light instruments, MICADO and HARMONI, to extend these dynamical measurements to galaxies at redshift $1\lesssim z\lesssim2$. We select a sample of five bright, massive, quiescent galaxies at these redshifts, adopting their Sérsic profiles from HST photometry as their intrinsic surface brightness distributions. Based on these intrinsic models, we generate mock MICADO images using SimCADO and mock HARMONI integral-field spectroscopic data cubes using HSIM. The HARMONI simulations utilize input stellar kinematics derived from Jeans Anisotropic Models (JAM). We then process these mock observations: the simulated MICADO images are fitted with Multi-Gaussian Expansion to derive stellar mass models, and stellar kinematics are extracted from mock HARMONI cubes with pPXF. Finally, these derived stellar mass models and kinematics are used to constrain JAM dynamical models within a Bayesian framework. Our analysis demonstrates that SMBH masses can be recovered with an accuracy of $\sim$10%. We find that MICADO can provide detailed stellar mass models with $\sim$1 hour of on-source exposure. HARMONI requires longer minimum integrations for reliable stellar kinematic measurements of SMBHs. The required on-source time scales with apparent brightness, ranging from 5-7.5 hours for galaxies at $z\approx1$ (F814W, 20-20.5 mag) to 5 hours for galaxies at $1<z\lesssim2$ (F160W, 20.8 mag). These findings highlight the ELT's capability to push the frontier of SMBH mass measurements to $z\approx2$, enabling crucial tests of SMBH-galaxy co-evolution at the top end of the galaxy mass function.

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When relics were made: vigorous stellar rotation and low dark matter content in the massive ultra-compact galaxy GS-9209 at z=4.66

JWST uncovered a large number of massive quiescent galaxies (MQGs) at $z>3$, which theoretical models struggle to reproduce. Explaining the number density of such objects requires extremely high conversion efficiency of baryons into stars in early dark matter halos. Using stellar kinematics, we can investigate the processes shaping the mass assembly histories of MQGs. We present high-resolution JWST/NIRSpec integral field spectroscopy of GS-9209, a massive, compact quiescent galaxy at $z=4.66$ ($\log (M_{\ast}/M_{\odot})=10.52 \pm 0.06$, $R_{eff}=220 \pm 20$ pc). Full spectral fitting of the spatially resolved stellar continuum reveals a clear rotational pattern, yielding a spin parameter of $λ_{2R_{eff}}=0.85 \pm 0.10$. This study suggests that at least a fraction of the earliest quiescent galaxies were fast rotators and that quenching was a dynamically gentle process, preserving the stellar disc even in highly compact objects. Using Jeans anisotropic modelling and assuming a NFW profile, we measure a dark matter fraction of $f_{DM} (<2R_{eff}) = 14.5^{+6.0}_{-4.2} \% $. Our findings use stellar kinematics to confirm the massive nature of early quiescent galaxies, previously inferred from stellar population modelling. We suggest that GS-9209 has a similar structure to low-redshift `relic' galaxies. However, unlike relic galaxies which have bottom-heavy initial mass functions (IMF), the dynamically inferred mass-to-light ratio of GS-9209 is consistent with a Milky-Way like IMF. The kinematical properties of GS-9209 are different from those of $z<1$ early-type galaxies and more similar to those of recently quenched post-starburst galaxies at $z>2$.

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The Supermassive Black Hole in the Nearby Spiral Galaxy M81: A Robust Mass from JWST/NIRSpec Stellar Dynamics

Despite its proximity, the mass of the supermassive black hole (SMBH) in the spiral galaxy M81 (NGC~3031) has remained uncertain, with previous dynamical measurements being unreliable. We present the first robust stellar-dynamical measurement of its mass using high-resolution, two-dimensional kinematics from JWST/NIRSpec observations of the central $3''\times3''$. By tracing stellar motions in the near-infrared, our data penetrate the obscuring nuclear dust and allow for the separation of stellar light from the non-thermal AGN continuum. We modeled the kinematics using JAM within a Bayesian framework, exploring a comprehensive suite of models that systematically account for uncertainties in the point-spread function, orbital anisotropy, and stellar mass-to-light ratio. This ensemble modeling approach demonstrates that a central dark mass unambiguously drives the central rise in velocity dispersion. The models yield a robust SMBH mass of $M_{\rm BH} = (4.78^{+0.07}_{-0.10})\times10^7$ M$_\odot$. This result resolves a long-standing uncertainty in the mass of M81's black hole and provides a crucial, reliable anchor point for SMBH-galaxy scaling relations.

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Measuring the Central Dark Mass in NGC 4258 with JWST/NIRSpec Stellar Kinematics

We present a new stellar dynamical measurement of the supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass in the nearby spiral galaxy NGC 4258, a critical benchmark for extragalactic mass measurements. We use archival JWST/NIRSpec IFU data (G235H/F170LP grating) to extract high-resolution two-dimensional stellar kinematics from the CO bandhead absorption features within the central $3'' \times 3''$. We extract the stellar kinematics after correcting for instrumental artifacts and separating the stellar light from the non-thermal AGN continuum. We employ Jeans Anisotropic Models (JAM) to fit the observed kinematics, exploring a grid of 12 models to systematically test the impact of different assumptions for the point-spread function, stellar mass-to-light ratio ($M/L$) profile, and orbital anisotropy. All 12 models provide broadly acceptable fits, albeit with minor differences. The ensemble median and 68% (1$σ$) bootstrap confidence intervals of our 12 models yield a black hole mass of $M_{\rm BH} = (4.08^{+0.19}_{-0.33}) \times 10^7$ M$_\odot$. This paper showcases the utility of using the full model ensemble to robustly account for systematic uncertainties, rather than relying on formal errors from a single preferred model, as has been common practice. Our result is just 5% larger than, and consistent with, the benchmark SMBH mass derived from water maser dynamics, validating the use of NIRSpec stellar kinematics for robust SMBH mass determination. Our analysis demonstrates JWST's capability to resolve the SMBH's sphere of influence and deliver precise dynamical masses, even in the presence of significant AGN continuum emission.

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TDCOSMO XIX. Measuring stellar velocity dispersion with sub-percent accuracy for cosmography

The stellar velocity dispersion ($σ$) of massive elliptical galaxies is a key ingredient in breaking the mass-sheet degeneracy and obtaining precise and accurate cosmography from gravitational time delays. The relative uncertainty on the Hubble constant H$_0$ is double the relative error on $σ$. Therefore, time-delay cosmography imposes much more demanding requirements on the precision and accuracy of $σ$ than galaxy studies. While precision can be achieved with an adequate signal-to-noise ratio (S/N), the accuracy critically depends on key factors such as the elemental abundance and temperature of stellar templates, flux calibration, and wavelength ranges. We carried out a detailed study of the problem using multiple sets of galaxy spectra of massive elliptical galaxies with S/N$\sim$30--160 Å$^{-1}$, along with state-of-the-art empirical and semi-empirical stellar libraries and stellar population synthesis templates. We show that the choice of stellar library is generally the dominant source of residual systematic errors. We propose a general recipe for mitigating and accounting for residual uncertainties. We show that a sub-percent level of accuracy can be achieved on individual spectra with our data quality, which we subsequently validated with simulated mock datasets. The covariance between velocity dispersions measured for a sample of spectra can also be reduced to sub-percent levels. We recommend this recipe for all applications that require high precision and accurate stellar kinematics. Thus, we have made all the software publicly available to facilitate its implementation. This recipe will also be used in future TDCOSMO collaboration papers.

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TDCOSMO XXI. Accurate stellar velocity dispersions of the SL2S lens sample and the fundamental plane of the lensing mass

We reanalyzed spectra that were taken as part of the SL2S lens galaxy survey with the goal to obtain the stellar velocity dispersion with a precision and accuracy sufficient for time-delay cosmography. In order to achieve this goal, we imposed stringent cuts on the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N), and employed recently developed methods to mitigate and quantify residual systematic errors that are transferred from template libraries and fitting process. We also quantified the covariance across the sample. For galaxy spectra with S/N $>20/$Å, our new measurements have an average random uncertainty of 3-4\%, an average systematic uncertainty of 2\%, and a covariance across the sample of 1\%. We find a negligible covariance between spectra taken with different instruments. The systematic uncertainty and covariance need to be included when the sample is used as an external dataset in time-delay cosmography. We revisited empirical scaling relations of lens galaxies based on the improved kinematics. We show that the SL2S sample, the TDCOSMO time-delay lens sample, and the lower-redshift SLACS sample follow the same correlation of the effective radius, stellar velocity dispersion, and lensing mass, known as the lensing-mass fundamental plane, as the previously derived correlation that assumed isothermal mass profiles for the deflectors. We also derived for the first time the lensing-mass fundamental plane assuming free power-law mass density profiles, and we show that the three samples also follow the same correlation. This is consistent with a scenario in which massive galaxies evolve by growing their radii and mass, but stay within the plane.

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TDCOSMO 2025: Cosmological constraints from strong lensing time delays

We present cosmological constraints from 8 strongly lensed quasars (hereafter, the TDCOSMO-2025 sample). Building on previous work, our analysis incorporated new deflector stellar velocity dispersions measured from spectra obtained with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the Keck Telescopes, and the Very Large Telescope (VLT), utilizing improved methods. We used integrated JWST stellar kinematics for 5 lenses, VLT-MUSE for 2, and resolved kinematics from Keck and JWST for RXJ1131-1231. We also considered two samples of non-time-delay lenses: 11 from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample with Keck-KCWI resolved kinematics; and 4 from the Strong Lenses in the Legacy Survey (SL2S) sample. We improved our analysis of line-of-sight effects, the surface brightness profile of the lens galaxies, and orbital anisotropy, and corrected for projection effects in the dynamics. Our uncertainties are maximally conservative by accounting for the mass-sheet degeneracy in the deflectors' mass density profiles. The analysis was blinded to prevent experimenter bias. Our primary result is based on the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, in combination with $Ω_{\rm m}$ constraints from the Pantheon+ Type Ia supernovae (SN) dataset. In the flat $Λ$ cold dark matter (CDM), we find $H_0=71.6^{+3.9}_{-3.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$. The SLACS and SL2S samples are in excellent agreement with the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, improving the precision on $H_0$ in flat $Λ$CDM to 4.6%. Using the Dark Energy Survey SN Year-5 dataset (DES-SN5YR) or DESI-DR2 baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) likelihoods instead of Pantheon+ yields very similar results. We also present constraints in the open $Λ$CDM, $w$CDM, $w_0w_a$CDM, and $w_ϕ$CDM cosmologies. The TDCOSMO $H_0$ inference is robust and consistent across all presented cosmological models, and our cosmological constraints in them agree with those from the BAO and SN.

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TDCOSMO XXII: Triaxiality and projection effects in time-delay cosmography

Constraining the mass-sheet degeneracy (MSD) is crucial for improving the precision and accuracy of time-delay cosmography. Joint analyses of lensing and stellar kinematics are widely adopted to break the MSD. A 3D mass and stellar tracer population is required to accurately interpret the kinematics data. Our forward-modeling procedure aims at evaluating the projection effects of strong lensing and kinematics observables and to determine an optimal model assumption for the stellar kinematics analysis leading to an unbiased MSD and $H_0$. We numerically simulate the projection and selection effects for both a triaxial ETG sample from the IllustrisTNG simulation and an axisymmetric sample that matches the properties of slow-rotator galaxies representative of the strong lens galaxy population. Using the axisymmetric sample, we generate mock kinematics observables with axisymmetric Jeans Anisotropic Modeling (JAM) and assess kinematic recovery under different model assumptions. Using the triaxial sample, we quantify the random uncertainty introduced by modeling triaxial galaxies with axisymmetric JAM. We show that spherical JAM analysis of spatially unresolved kinematic data introduces a bias of up to 2%-4% (depending on the intrinsic shape of the lens) in the inferred MSD. Our model largely corrects this bias, resulting in a residual random uncertainty in the range of 0-2.2% in the stellar velocity dispersion (0-4.4% in $H_0$) depending on the projected ellipticity and the anisotropy of the stellar orbits. This residual uncertainty can be further mitigated using spatially resolved kinematic data which constrain the intrinsic shape. We also show that the random uncertainty in the velocity dispersion recovery using axisymmetric JAM for axisymmetric galaxies is at the level of < 0.24%, and the uncertainty using axisymmetric JAM for triaxial galaxies is at the level of < 0.17%.

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PowerBin: Fast Adaptive Data Binning with Centroidal Power Diagrams

Adaptive binning is a crucial step in the analysis of large astronomical datasets, such as those from integral-field spectroscopy, to ensure a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) for reliable model fitting. However, the widely used Voronoi-binning method and its variants suffer from two key limitations: they scale poorly with data size, often as O(N^2), creating a computational bottleneck for modern surveys, and they can produce undesirable non-convex or disconnected bins. I introduce PowerBin, a new algorithm that overcomes these issues. I frame the binning problem within the theory of optimal transport, for which the solution is a Centroidal Power Diagram (CPD), guaranteeing convex bins. Instead of formal CPD solvers, which are unstable with real data, I develop a fast and robust heuristic based on a physical analogy of packed soap bubbles. This method reliably enforces capacity constraints even for non-additive measures like S/N with correlated noise. I also present a new bin-accretion algorithm with O(N log N) complexity, removing the previous bottleneck. The combined PowerBin algorithm scales as O(N log N), making it about two orders of magnitude faster than previous methods on million-pixel datasets. I demonstrate its performance on a range of simulated and real data, showing it produces high-quality, convex tessellations with excellent S/N uniformity. The public Python implementation provides a fast, robust, and scalable tool for the analysis of modern astronomical data.

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MaNGA DynPop. VII. A Unified Bulge-Disk-Halo Model for Explaining Diversity in Circular Velocity Curves of 6000 Spiral and Early-Type Galaxies

We derive circular velocity curves (CVCs) from stellar dynamical models for $\sim6000$ nearby galaxies in the final data release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-IV MaNGA survey with integral-field spectroscopy, exploring connections between the inner gravitational potential (traced by CVC amplitude/shape) and galaxy properties. The maximum circular velocity ($V_{\rm circ}^{\rm max}$) and circular velocity at the half-light radius ($V_{\rm circ}(R_{\rm e}^{\rm maj})$) both scale linearly with the stellar second velocity moment $σ_{\rm e}^2\equiv\langle V^2+σ^2\rangle$ within the half-light isophote, following $V_{\rm circ}^{\rm max} \approx 1.72σ_{\rm e}$ (7$\%$ error) and $V_{\rm circ}(R_{\rm e}^{\rm maj}) \approx 1.62σ_{\rm e}$ (7$\%$ error). CVC shapes (rising, flat, declining) correlate strongly with structural and stellar population properties: declining curves dominate in massive, early-type, bulge-dominated galaxies with old, metal-rich stars and early quenching, while rising CVCs prevail in disk-dominated systems with younger stellar populations and ongoing star formation. Using a unified bulge-disk-halo model, we predict CVC shapes with minimal bias, identifying three governing parameters: bulge-to-total mass ratio ($B/T$), dark matter fraction within $R_{\rm e}$, and bulge Sersic index. The distribution of CVC shapes across the mass-size plane reflects evolutionary pathways driven by (i) in situ star formation (spurring bulge growth) and (ii) dry mergers. This establishes CVC morphology as a diagnostic for galaxy evolution, linking dynamical signatures to structural and stellar population histories.

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An accurate measurement of the spectral resolution of the JWST Near Infrared Spectrograph

The spectral resolution ($R \equiv λ/ Δλ$) of spectroscopic data is crucial information for accurate kinematic measurements. In this letter, we present a robust measurement of the spectral resolution of the JWST's Near Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) in fixed slit (FS) and integral field spectroscopy (IFS) modes. Due to the similarity of the utilized slit dimension if the FS mode to that of the shutters in the multi-object spectroscopy (MOS) mode, our resolution measurements in the FS mode can also be used for the MOS mode in principle. We modeled H and He lines of the planetary nebula SMP LMC 58 using a Gaussian line spread function (LSF) to estimate the wavelength-dependent resolution for multiple disperser and filter combinations. We corrected for the intrinsic width of the planetary nebula's H and He lines due to its expansion velocity by measuring it from a higher-resolution X-shooter spectrum. We find that NIRSpec's in-flight spectral resolutions exceed the pre-launch estimates provided in the JWST User Documentation by 11-53% in the FS mode and by 1-24% in the IFS mode across the covered wavelengths. We recover the expected trend that the resolution increases with the wavelength within a configuration. The robust and accurate LSFs presented in this letter will enable high-accuracy kinematic measurements using NIRSpec for applications in cosmology and galaxy evolution.

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WISDOM Project -- XXVI. Cross-checking supermassive black hole mass estimates from ALMA CO gas kinematics and SINFONI stellar kinematics in the galaxy NGC 4751

We present high angular resolution ($0.19''$ or $\approx24$ pc) ALMA observations of the $^{12}$CO(3-2) line emission of the galaxy NGC 4751. The data provide evidence for the presence of a central SMBH. Assuming a constant mass-to-light ratio ($M/L$), we infer a SMBH mass $M_\text{BH}=3.43^{+0.45}_{-0.44}[\text{stat},3σ]^{+0.22}_{-0.64}[\text{sys}]\times10^9$ M$_\odot$ and a F160W filter stellar $M/L_{F160W}=2.68\pm0.11[\text{stat},3σ]^{+0.10}_{-0.80}[\text{sys}]$ M$_\odot$/L$_{\odot,\text{F160W}}$, where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second systematic. Assuming a linearly spatially-varying $M/L$, we infer $M_\text{BH}=2.79^{+0.75}_{-0.57}[\text{stat},3σ]^{+0.75}_{-0.45}[\text{syst}]\times10^9$ M$_\odot$ and $(M/L_\text{F160W})/(\text{M}_\odot/\text{L}_{\odot,\text{F160W}})=3.07^{+0.27}_{-0.35}[\text{stat},3σ]^{+0.08}_{-1.14}[\text{sys}]-0.09^{+0.08}_{-0.06}[\text{stat},3σ]^{+0.08}_{-0.01}[\text{sys}](R/\text{arcsec})$, where $R$ is the galactocentric radius. We also present SMBH mass estimates using the Jeans Anisotropic Modelling (JAM) method and Very Large Telescope Spectrograph for INtegral Field Observations in the Near Infrared (SINFONI) stellar kinematics. Assuming a cylindrically-aligned velocity ellipsoid (JAM$_\text{cyl}$) we infer $M_\text{BH}=(2.52\pm 0.36)\times10^9$ M$_\odot$, while assuming a spherically-aligned velocity ellipsoid (JAM$_\text{sph}$) we infer $M_\text{BH}=(3.24\pm0.87)\times10^9$ M$_\odot$. The SMBH mass assuming a constant $M/L$ is statistically consistent with that of JAM$_\text{sph}$, whereas the mass assuming a linearly-varying $M/L$ is consistent with both JAM$_\text{cyl}$ and JAM$_\text{sph}$ (within the uncertainties). Our derived masses are larger than (and inconsistent with) one previous stellar dynamical measurement using the Schwarzschild orbit-superposition method and the same SINFONI kinematics.

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GPU-Accelerated Gravitational Lensing & Dynamical (GLaD) Modeling for Cosmology and Galaxies

Time-delay distance measurements from strongly lensed quasars provide a robust, independent method for determining the Hubble constant ($H_0$). This approach cross-checks $H_0$ estimates from the distance ladder in the late universe and the cosmic microwave background in the early universe. However, the mass-sheet degeneracy in lensing models introduces systematic uncertainty, limiting precision. Dynamical modeling complements strong lensing by constraining the mass distribution with independent observational data. We develop a methodology and software framework for joint modeling of stellar kinematics and lensing data. Using simulated data for the lensed quasar RXJ1131$-$1131, we demonstrate that high-quality kinematic data can achieve $\sim$4% precision on $H_0$. Through extensive modeling, we examine the impact of the presence of a supermassive black hole in the lens galaxy and potential systematic biases in kinematic data on $H_0$ measurements. Our results show that imposing priors on black hole mass and orbital anisotropy, or excluding central kinematic bins, mitigates biases in $H_0$ estimates. By testing on mock kinematic data with systematic biases, we highlight the need for sub-percent control of kinematic systematics, which is achievable with current technology. Additionally, we leverage GPU parallelization to accelerate Bayesian inference, reducing a previously month-long process by an order of magnitude. This pipeline offers significant potential for advancing cosmological and galaxy evolution studies with large datasets.

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Simulating intermediate black hole mass measurements for a sample of galaxies with nuclear star clusters using ELT/HARMONI high spatial resolution integral-field stellar kinematics

Understanding the demographics of intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs, $M_{\rm BH} \approx 10^2-10^5$ M$_\odot$) in low-mass galaxies is key to constraining black hole seed formation models, but detecting them is challenging due to their small gravitational sphere of influence (SOI). The upcoming ELT/HARMONI instrument, with its high angular resolution, offers a promising solution. We present simulations assessing HARMONI's ability to measure IMBH masses in nuclear star clusters (NSCs) of nearby dwarf galaxies. We selected a sample of 44 candidates within 10 Mpc. For two representative targets, NGC 300 and NGC 3115 dw01, we generated mock HARMONI integral-field data cubes using realistic inputs derived from \hst\ imaging, stellar population models, and Jeans Anisotropic Models (JAM), assuming IMBH masses up to 1\% of the NSC mass. We simulated observations across six NIR gratings at 10 mas resolution. Analyzing the mock data with standard kinematic extraction (pPXF) and JAM models in a Bayesian framework, we demonstrate that HARMONI can resolve the IMBH SOI and accurately recover masses down to $\approx 0.5\%$ of the NSC mass within feasible exposure times. These results highlight HARMONI's potential to revolutionize IMBH studies.

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