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Michele Caprio

Publications and source records attributed to Michele Caprio.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

The Physical Cutoff Does Not Restore Homogenization: Phase-Dependent Burning in the Strain G-Equation

We disprove the expectation stated by Xin, Yu, and Ronney that the physical positive part strain $G$-equation should possess an effective burning velocity in cellular flows. For the standard cellular flow in dimension two $V_A(x_1,x_2)=A(-\sin x_1\cos x_2,\cos x_1\sin x_2)$, if $0 0$ universal. The same conclusions hold for arbitrary continuous periodic perturbations of planar initial data. Under the physical scaling $V_A(x/\varepsilon)$ and $d_\varepsilon=\varepsilon d$, an order one value gap persists between points at distance $O(\varepsilon)$ at every positive macroscopic time, so the rescaled solutions have no locally uniformly convergent subsequence. The proof uses the Hamiltonian sandwich $H_{\mathrm{unc}}\le H_+\le\widehat H$. The upper comparator $\widehat H$ is a rectangular support function, equivalently an upper expectation over a state-dependent credal set, whose reversed control dynamics possess an invariant comparison channel. We also prove that for any $C^2$ incompressible periodic flow, every $\varepsilon$-outward barrier certificate has covering radius at most $2d\varepsilon$ for all sufficiently small $\varepsilon$. We further discuss implications for statistics and machine learning: rectangular, time-consistent local uncertainty need not imply forgetting of the initial state in the long run, so additional global stability or ergodicity conditions are needed in robust sequential decision making. Two Lean 4 appendices record conditional formalizations of a sufficient $p=e_1$ subregime and of the logical assembly of the rigidity theorem for barrier certificates.

math.AP↗
arXiv2026

CoCoNav: Conformal Control for Safe Robot Navigation in Crowds

Safe and efficient robot navigation in crowds requires anticipating pedestrian motion despite uncertain and potentially shifting prediction errors. Existing reactive methods can produce oscillatory behavior, while predictive planners often treat forecasts as exact or rely on restrictive error models. Incorporating conservative uncertainty sets as hard constraints can also render model predictive control (MPC) infeasible. We propose \textit{CoCoNav}, a crowd-navigation framework that combines online conformal calibration with runtime-certified planning. A horizon-specific conformal proportional--integral controller adapts trajectory-error bounds to regulate long-run empirical coverage, enabling the framework to respond to changing prediction errors. A \textit{relax-then-verify} planner preserves solver feasibility by generating nominal trajectories with soft-constrained MPC and separately certifying them, together with contingency maneuvers, against the calibrated bounds before execution. Simulations and quadruped experiments show that CoCoNav achieves a favorable balance among collision avoidance, task success, and navigation efficiency relative to the evaluated baselines.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2026

Subjective Risk Decomposition: A New View for Uncertainty Quantification

We present a novel viewpoint for uncertainty quantification. Uncertainty measures are not primitives, in need of axioms and argumentation, but instead consequences, of higher-level modelling decisions. We show how epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty measures can be derived via decomposition of a subjective risk, based on a strictly proper loss. Reverse cross entropy provides a prominent example, where decomposition recovers the classic information-theoretic uncertainty terms. The same approach recovers numerous measures previously proposed across the UQ literature, providing them a common theoretical foundation. This suggests a new approach to UQ: given a modelling scenario and strictly proper loss, the corresponding epistemic and aleatoric terms are induced by the subjective-risk decomposition. We then extend our view to learning theory: we introduce and analyse subjective risk analogues of excess risk, approximation error and estimation error, and identify the connections to UQ. We consider this a first step towards a full learning-theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Decoupled Conformal Optimisation: Efficient Prediction Sets via Independent Tuning and Calibration

Bayesian conformal optimisation methods often use the same held-out data both to search for efficient prediction sets and to certify coverage or risk. This coupling is natural for high-probability risk-control guarantees, but it is not necessary when the target is standard finite-sample marginal conformal coverage. We propose Decoupled Conformal Optimisation (DCO), a train-tune-calibrate design principle that uses an independent tuning split for efficiency-oriented structural selection and a fresh calibration split for the final conformal quantile. Conditional on the tuned structure, standard split-conformal exchangeability yields finite-sample marginal coverage for any candidate class, without a confidence parameter or multiple-testing correction. DCO therefore targets a different finite-sample guarantee from PAC-style methods: marginal conformal coverage rather than high-probability risk control. Under consistency assumptions on the coupled risk bound, the two approaches nevertheless converge to the same population threshold. Across classification and regression benchmarks, including ImageNet-A, CIFAR-100, Diabetes, California Housing, and Concrete, DCO tracks the nominal coverage level closely while often reducing average prediction-set size or interval width relative to PAC-style calibration. On ImageNet-A, for example, the average set size decreases from $26.52$ to $25.26$ and the 95th-percentile set size from $58.95$ to $53.73$; on Diabetes, the average interval width decreases from $2.098$ to $1.914$.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

Approximate Bayesian inference typically revolves around computing the posterior parameter distribution. In practice, however, the main object of interest is often a model's predictions rather than its parameters. In this work, we propose to bypass the parameter posterior and focus directly on approximating the posterior predictive distribution. We achieve this by drawing inspiration from self-training within self-supervised and semi-supervised learning. Essentially, we quantify a Bayesian model's predictive uncertainty by refitting on self-predicted data. The idea is strikingly simple: If a model assigns high likelihood to self-predicted data, these predictions are of low uncertainty, and vice versa. This yields a deterministic, sampling-free approximation of the posterior predictive. The modular structure of our Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation (SSLA) further allows us to plug in different prior specifications, enabling classical Bayesian sensitivity (w.r.t. prior choice) analysis. In order to bypass expensive refitting, we further introduce an approximate version of SSLA, called ASSLA. We study (A)SSLA both theoretically and empirically in regression models ranging from Bayesian linear models to Bayesian neural networks. Across a wide array of regression tasks with simulated and real-world datasets, our methods outperform classical Laplace approximations in predictive calibration while remaining computationally efficient.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Quantification of Credal Uncertainty: A Distance-Based Approach

Credal sets, i.e., closed convex sets of probability measures, provide a natural framework to represent aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning. Yet how to quantify these two types of uncertainty for a given credal set, particularly in multiclass classification, remains underexplored. In this paper, we propose a distance-based approach to quantify total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty for credal sets. Concretely, we introduce a family of such measures within the framework of Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs). The resulting quantities admit clear semantic interpretations, satisfy natural theoretical desiderata, and remain computationally tractable for common choices of IPMs. We instantiate the framework with the total variation distance and obtain simple, efficient uncertainty measures for multiclass classification. In the binary case, this choice recovers established uncertainty measures, for which a principled multiclass generalization has so far been missing. Empirical results confirm practical usefulness, with favorable performance at low computational cost.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Verbalizing LLM's Higher-order Uncertainty via Imprecise Probabilities

Despite the growing demand for eliciting uncertainty from large language models (LLMs), empirical evidence suggests that LLM behavior is not always adequately captured by the elicitation techniques developed under the classical probabilistic uncertainty framework. This mismatch leads to systematic failure modes, particularly in settings that involve ambiguous question-answering, in-context learning, and self-reflection. To address this, we propose novel prompt-based uncertainty elicitation techniques grounded in \emph{imprecise probabilities}, a principled framework for repesenting and eliciting higher-order uncertainty. Here, first-order uncertainty captures uncertainty over possible responses to a prompt, while second-order uncertainty (uncertainty about uncertainty) quantifies indeterminacy in the underlying probability model itself. We introduce general-purpose prompting and post-processing procedures to directly elicit and quantify both orders of uncertainty, and demonstrate their effectiveness across diverse settings. Our approach enables more faithful uncertainty reporting from LLMs, improving credibility and supporting downstream decision-making.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Hoeffding-Type Concentration Bounds for Exchangeable Random Variables

We establish Hoeffding-type concentration inequalities for empirical means of bounded infinitely exchangeable sequences. Using the unique de Finetti mixing measure, we identify the appropriate concentration set as the collection of means of the component distributions in the support of the mixing law. The empirical mean concentrates exponentially around this set, with the same exponential rate as in the classical Hoeffding inequality. More sharply, the empirical mean concentrates directly around its random almost sure de Finetti limit. This also yields one sided bounds relative to the smallest and largest component means. When the mixing measure is concentrated at a single distribution, the sequence is independent and identically distributed, and our result recovers the classical Hoeffding inequality.

math.OC↗
arXiv2026

CREDO: Epistemic-Aware Conformalized Credal Envelopes for Regression

Conformal prediction delivers prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage, but its intervals can look overconfident in regions where the model is extrapolating, because standard conformal scores do not explicitly represent epistemic uncertainty. Credal methods, by contrast, make epistemic effects visible by working with sets of plausible predictive distributions, but they are typically model-based and lack calibration guarantees. We introduce CREDO, a simple "credal-then-conformalize" recipe that combines both strengths. CREDO first builds an interpretable credal envelope that widens when local evidence is weak, then applies split conformal calibration on top of this envelope to guarantee marginal coverage without further assumptions. This separation of roles yields prediction intervals that are interpretable: their width can be decomposed into aleatoric noise, epistemic inflation, and a distribution-free calibration slack. We provide a fast implementation based on trimming extreme posterior predictive endpoints, prove validity, and show on benchmark regressions that CREDO maintains target coverage while improving sparsity adaptivity at competitive efficiency.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Robust Predictive Uncertainty and Double Descent in Contaminated Bayesian Random Features

We propose a robust Bayesian formulation of random feature (RF) regression that accounts explicitly for prior and likelihood misspecification via Huber-style contamination sets. Starting from the classical equivalence between ridge-regularized RF training and Bayesian inference with Gaussian priors and likelihoods, we replace the single prior and likelihood with $\epsilon$- and $\eta$-contaminated credal sets, respectively, and perform inference using pessimistic generalized Bayesian updating. We derive explicit and tractable bounds for the resulting lower and upper posterior predictive densities. These bounds show that, when contamination is moderate, prior and likelihood ambiguity effectively acts as a direct contamination of the posterior predictive distribution, yielding uncertainty envelopes around the classical Gaussian predictive. We introduce an Imprecise Highest Density Region (IHDR) for robust predictive uncertainty quantification and show that it admits an efficient approximation via an adjusted Gaussian credible interval. We further obtain predictive variance bounds (under a mild truncation approximation for the upper bound) and prove that they preserve the leading-order proportional-growth asymptotics known for RF models. Together, these results establish a robustness theory for Bayesian random features: predictive uncertainty remains computationally tractable, inherits the classical double-descent phase structure, and is improved by explicit worst-case guarantees under bounded prior and likelihood misspecification.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Bayesian Conformal Prediction as a Decision Risk Problem

We propose Bayesian Conformal Prediction (BCP), a framework that combines Bayesian posterior predictive distributions with PAC-style conformal risk control to produce prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Standard quantile-threshold conformal methods often construct prediction sets using a single fixed threshold, which typically yields connected prediction sets. While valid, such sets can be inefficient when the posterior predictive distribution is multimodal, since they may span low-density regions between separated modes. The main contribution of BCP is to formulate conformal prediction as a decision-risk optimisation problem, extending standard fixed quantile-threshold sets to optimised highest posterior density (HPD) prediction sets. These sets can be disjoint, concentrating probability mass on separated high-density regions. Validity is enforced using a PAC-style risk constraint, which provides coverage control even when the Bayesian model is misspecified. In standard nested-threshold settings, BCP recovers the smallest feasible threshold, aligning with existing PAC-based approaches. In the multimodal experiment, HPD geometry substantially improves efficiency, reducing mean prediction set size from $4.82$ to $2.07$ while satisfying the target PAC pass rate. Across regression, classification, and distribution-shift experiments, BCP maintains reliable coverage under model misspecification, whereas Bayesian credible intervals can fail to preserve nominal coverage.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Quantifying Epistemic Predictive Uncertainty in Conformal Prediction

We study the problem of quantifying epistemic predictive uncertainty (EPU) -- that is, uncertainty faced at prediction time due to the existence of multiple plausible predictive models -- within the framework of conformal prediction (CP). To expose the implicit model multiplicity underlying CP, we build on recent results showing that, under a mild assumption, any full CP procedure induces a set of closed and convex predictive distributions, commonly referred to as a credal set. Importantly, the conformal prediction region (CPR) coincides exactly with the set of labels to which all distributions in the induced credal set assign probability at least $1-\alpha$. As our first contribution, we prove that this characterisation also holds in split CP. Building on this connection, we then propose a computationally efficient and analytically tractable uncertainty measure, based on \emph{Maximum Mean Imprecision}, to quantify the EPU by measuring the degree of conflicting information within the induced credal set. Experiments on active learning and selective classification demonstrate that the quantified EPU provides substantially more informative and fine-grained uncertainty assessments than reliance on CPR size alone. More broadly, this work highlights the potential of CP serving as a principled basis for decision-making under epistemic uncertainty.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Bulk-Calibrated Credal Ambiguity Sets: Fast, Tractable Decision Making under Out-of-Sample Contamination

Distributionally robust optimisation (DRO) minimises the worst-case expected loss over an ambiguity set that can capture distributional shifts in out-of-sample environments. While Huber (linear-vacuous) contamination is a classical minimal-assumption model for an $\varepsilon$-fraction of arbitrary perturbations, including it in an ambiguity set can make the worst-case risk infinite and the DRO objective vacuous unless one imposes strong boundedness or support assumptions. We address these challenges by introducing bulk-calibrated credal ambiguity sets: we learn a high-mass bulk set from data while considering contamination inside the bulk and bounding the remaining tail contribution separately. This leads to a closed-form, finite $\mathrm{mean}+\sup$ robust objective and tractable linear or second-order cone programs for common losses and bulk geometries. Through this framework, we highlight and exploit the equivalence between the imprecise probability (IP) notion of upper expectation and the worst-case risk, demonstrating how IP credal sets translate into DRO objectives with interpretable tolerance levels. Experiments on heavy-tailed inventory control, geographically shifted house-price regression, and demographically shifted text classification show competitive robustness-accuracy trade-offs and efficient optimisation times, using Bayesian, frequentist, or empirical reference distributions.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2025

Credal and Interval Deep Evidential Classifications

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) presents a pivotal challenge in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), profoundly impacting decision-making, risk assessment and model reliability. In this paper, we introduce Credal and Interval Deep Evidential Classifications (CDEC and IDEC, respectively) as novel approaches to address UQ in classification tasks. CDEC and IDEC leverage a credal set (closed and convex set of probabilities) and an interval of evidential predictive distributions, respectively, allowing us to avoid overfitting to the training data and to systematically assess both epistemic (reducible) and aleatoric (irreducible) uncertainties. When those surpass acceptable thresholds, CDEC and IDEC have the capability to abstain from classification and flag an excess of epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty, as relevant. Conversely, within acceptable uncertainty bounds, CDEC and IDEC provide a collection of labels with robust probabilistic guarantees. CDEC and IDEC are trained using standard backpropagation and a loss function that draws from the theory of evidence. They overcome the shortcomings of previous efforts, and extend the current evidential deep learning literature. Through extensive experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100, together with their natural OoD shifts (F-MNIST/K-MNIST, SVHN/Intel, TinyImageNet), we show that CDEC and IDEC achieve competitive predictive accuracy, state-of-the-art OoD detection under epistemic and total uncertainty, and tight, well-calibrated prediction regions that expand reliably under distribution shift. An ablation over ensemble size further demonstrates that CDEC attains stable uncertainty estimates with only a small ensemble.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Quantum Machine Learning

Quantum machine learning seeks to leverage quantum computers to improve upon classical machine learning algorithms. Currently, robust uncertainty quantification methods remain underdeveloped in the quantum domain, despite the critical need for reliable and trustworthy predictions. Recent work has introduced quantum conformal prediction, a framework that produces prediction sets that are guaranteed to contain the true outcome with a user-specified probability. In this work, we formalise how the time-varying noise inherent in quantum processors can undermine conformal guarantees, even when calibration and test data are exchangeable. To address this challenge, we draw on Adaptive Conformal Inference, a method which maintains validity over time via repeated recalibration. We introduce Adaptive Quantum Conformal Prediction (AQCP), an algorithm which provides asymptotic average coverage guarantees under arbitrary hardware noise conditions. Empirical studies on an IBM quantum processor demonstrate that AQCP achieves the target coverage level and exhibits greater stability than quantum conformal prediction.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

When Do Credal Sets Stabilize? Fixed-Point Theorems for Credal Set Updates

Many machine learning algorithms rely on iterative updates of uncertainty representations, ranging from variational inference and expectation-maximization, to reinforcement learning, continual learning, and multi-agent learning. In the presence of imprecision and ambiguity, credal sets -- closed, convex sets of probability distributions -- have emerged as a popular framework for representing imprecise probabilistic beliefs. Under such imprecision, many learning problems in imprecise probabilistic machine learning (IPML) may be viewed as processes involving successive applications of update rules on credal sets. This naturally raises the question of whether this iterative process converges to stable fixed points -- or, more generally, under what conditions on the updating mechanism such fixed points exist, and whether they can be attained. We provide the first analysis of this problem, and illustrate our findings using Credal Bayesian Deep Learning as a concrete example. Our work demonstrates that incorporating imprecision into the learning process not only enriches the representation of uncertainty, but also reveals structural conditions under which stability emerges, thereby offering new insights into the dynamics of iterative learning under imprecision.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

PoseDiff: A Unified Diffusion Model Bridging Robot Pose Estimation and Video-to-Action Control

We present PoseDiff, a conditional diffusion model that unifies robot state estimation and control within a single framework. At its core, PoseDiff maps raw visual observations into structured robot states-such as 3D keypoints or joint angles-from a single RGB image, eliminating the need for multi-stage pipelines or auxiliary modalities. Building upon this foundation, PoseDiff extends naturally to video-to-action inverse dynamics: by conditioning on sparse video keyframes generated by world models, it produces smooth and continuous long-horizon action sequences through an overlap-averaging strategy. This unified design enables scalable and efficient integration of perception and control. On the DREAM dataset, PoseDiff achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and real-time performance for pose estimation. On Libero-Object manipulation tasks, it substantially improves success rates over existing inverse dynamics modules, even under strict offline settings. Together, these results show that PoseDiff provides a scalable, accurate, and efficient bridge between perception, planning, and control in embodied AI. The video visualization results can be found on the project page: https://haozhuo-zhang.github.io/PoseDiff-project-page/.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2025

LHM-Humanoid: Long-Horizon Human Motion Control for Continuous Object Transport in Cluttered Scenes

Physics-based human motion control can make a simulated character walk, sit, and manipulate objects with high physical realism. Almost always, though, this happens in short, isolated clips that are re-initialized between interactions. We instead aim for continuous, reset-free long-horizon motion: a physically simulated humanoid that repeatedly walks to a displaced object, lifts it with a balanced whole-body posture, carries it past obstacles, and places it at a goal, over and over within a single uninterrupted take. The hard part is not any individual motion but the transitions between them. Without a reset, each cycle must end in a state that both leaves the object just placed undisturbed and lets the next cycle begin, yet every placement leaves the character off-balance in a non-canonical pose where naive end-to-end reinforcement learning fails. Our key idea is to treat this handoff as a two-sided problem of recoverability: the character must disengage from the object it just placed so the prior success is preserved, and settle into a state from which a balanced continuation exists. Instead of engineering a transition by hand, we learn to shape where each cycle ends so that it lands in this recoverable region. We introduce LHM-Humanoid. One goal-conditioned controller completes a fetch--carry--place cycle and, through a learned release-and-retreat behavior, steers its terminal state into this region; a second controller then takes over from the resulting state distribution. Both are regularized by an adversarial motion prior and distilled into a single goal-conditioned policy that runs the whole sequence as one reset-free rollout. Across 350 cluttered layouts spanning four room types, LHM-Humanoid produces far more successful and stable long-horizon motion than end-to-end RL, hierarchical RL, and prior physics-based human-scene-interaction methods, on both seen and unseen scenes.

cs.RO↗