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Michele Garetto

Publications and source records attributed to Michele Garetto.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Competing bootstrap processes on the random graph $G(n,p)$

We introduce and analyze a competitive extension of classical bootstrap percolation on the Erdős--Rényi random graph $G(n,p_n)$. Nodes can be red, black, or white, with red and black representing two competing active states. Starting from two sets of initially active seeds, white nodes activate according to independent Poisson clocks and become permanently red or black whenever the number of active neighbors of one color exceeds that of the competing color by at least a fixed threshold $r\geq2$. We characterize the asymptotic dynamics and final sizes of the two competing activation processes over all relevant seed-density scales. Our results reveal a sharp qualitative dichotomy. In the sub-critical regime, competition is asymptotically negligible at first order: each process reaches the same normalized final size as it would in the absence of the competing process. In the super-critical regime, instead, the initial advantage of the process with the larger seed density is amplified: the dominant process activates $n-o(n)$ nodes, while the competing process is suppressed and remains confined to a much smaller scale. Beyond final-size asymptotics, we derive a fluid-limit description of the joint activation trajectories and characterize the relevant activation time scales. The analysis combines uniform concentration estimates, deterministic limiting Cauchy problems, stochastic coupling, and multiscale arguments.

math.PR

Dominance or Fair Play in Social Networks? A Model of Influencer Popularity Dynamic

This paper presents a data-driven mean-field approach to model the popularity dynamics of users seeking public attention, i.e., influencers. We propose a novel analytical model that integrates individual activity patterns, expertise in producing viral content, exogenous events, and the platform's role in visibility enhancement, ultimately determining each influencer's success. We analytically derive sufficient conditions for system ergodicity, enabling predictions of popularity distributions. A sensitivity analysis explores various system configurations, highlighting conditions favoring either dominance or fair play among influencers. Our findings offer valuable insights into the potential evolution of social networks towards more equitable or biased influence ecosystems.

cs.SI

Information Retrieval in the Age of Generative AI: The RGB Model

The advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) and generative AI is fundamentally transforming information retrieval and processing on the Internet, bringing both great potential and significant concerns regarding content authenticity and reliability. This paper presents a novel quantitative approach to shed light on the complex information dynamics arising from the growing use of generative AI tools. Despite their significant impact on the digital ecosystem, these dynamics remain largely uncharted and poorly understood. We propose a stochastic model to characterize the generation, indexing, and dissemination of information in response to new topics. This scenario particularly challenges current LLMs, which often rely on real-time Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) techniques to overcome their static knowledge limitations. Our findings suggest that the rapid pace of generative AI adoption, combined with increasing user reliance, can outpace human verification, escalating the risk of inaccurate information proliferation across digital resources. An in-depth analysis of Stack Exchange data confirms that high-quality answers inevitably require substantial time and human effort to emerge. This underscores the considerable risks associated with generating persuasive text in response to new questions and highlights the critical need for responsible development and deployment of future generative AI tools.

cs.IR

Planning interventions in a controlled pandemic: the COVID-19 case

Restrictions on social and economic activities, as well as vaccinations, have been a key intervention in containing the COVID-19 epidemic. Our work focuses on better understanding the options available to policymakers under the conditions and uncertainties created by the onset of a new pandemic. More precisely, we focus on two control strategies. The first aims to control the rate of new infections to prevent congestion of the health care system. The latter directly controls hospitalizations and intensive care units (ICUs) occupation. By a first-order analysis, we show that, on the one hand, due to the difficulty in contact tracing and the lack of accurate information, controlling the transmission rate may be difficult, leading to instability. On the other hand, although hospitalizations and ICUs are easily accessible and less noisy than the rate of new infections, a delay is introduced in the control loop, which may endanger system stability. Our framework allows assessing the impact on economic and social costs of the above strategies in a scenario enriched by: i) population heterogeneity in terms of mortality rate and risk exposure, ii) closed-loop control of the epidemiological curve, and iii) progressive vaccination of individuals.

math.OC

Modeling communication asymmetry and content personalization in online social networks

The increasing popularity of online social networks (OSNs) attracted growing interest in modeling social interactions. On online social platforms, a few individuals, commonly referred to as influencers, produce the majority of content consumed by users and hegemonize the landscape of the social debate. However, classical opinion models do not capture this communication asymmetry. We develop an opinion model inspired by observations on social media platforms {with two main objectives: first, to describe this inherent communication asymmetry in OSNs, and second, to model the effects of content personalization. We derive a Fokker-Planck equation for the temporal evolution of users' opinion distribution and analytically characterize the stationary system behavior. Analytical results, confirmed by Monte-Carlo simulations, show how strict forms of content personalization tend to radicalize user opinion, leading to the emergence of echo chambers, and favor structurally advantaged influencers. As an example application, we apply our model to Facebook data during the Italian government crisis in the summer of 2019. Our work provides a flexible framework to evaluate the impact of content personalization on the opinion formation process, focusing on the interaction between influential individuals and regular users. This framework is interesting in the context of marketing and advertising, misinformation spreading, politics and activism.

cs.SI

Reconciling the Quality vs Popularity Dichotomy in Online Cultural Markets

We propose a simple model of an idealized online cultural market in which $N$ items, endowed with a hidden quality metric, are recommended to users by a ranking algorithm possibly biased by the current items' popularity. Our goal is to better understand the underlying mechanisms of the well-known fact that popularity bias can prevent higher-quality items from becoming more popular than lower-quality items, producing an undesirable misalignment between quality and popularity rankings. We do so under the assumption that users, having limited time/attention, are able to discriminate the best-quality only within a random subset of the items. We discover the existence of a harmful regime in which improper use of popularity can seriously compromise the emergence of quality, and a benign regime in which wise use of popularity, coupled with a small discrimination effort on behalf of users, guarantees the perfect alignment of quality and popularity ranking. Our findings clarify the effects of algorithmic popularity bias on quality outcomes, and may inform the design of more principled mechanisms for techno-social cultural markets.

cs.SI

Bootstrap percolation on the stochastic block model

We analyze the bootstrap percolation process on the stochastic block model (SBM), a natural extension of the Erdős--Rényi random graph that incorporates the community structure observed in many real systems. In the SBM, nodes are partitioned into two subsets, which represent different communities, and pairs of nodes are independently connected with a probability that depends on the communities they belong to. Under mild assumptions on the system parameters, we prove the existence of a sharp phase transition for the final number of active nodes and characterize the sub-critical and the super-critical regimes in terms of the number of initially active nodes, which are selected uniformly at random in each community.

math.PR

Similarity Caching: Theory and Algorithms

This paper focuses on similarity caching systems, in which a user request for an {object~$o$} that is not in the cache can be (partially) satisfied by a similar stored {object~$o'$}, at the cost of a loss of user utility. Similarity caching systems can be effectively employed in several application areas, like multimedia retrieval, recommender systems, genome study, and machine learning training/serving. However, despite their relevance, the behavior of such systems is far from being well understood. In this paper, we provide a first comprehensive analysis of similarity caching in the offline, adversarial, and stochastic settings. We show that similarity caching raises significant new challenges, for which we propose the first dynamic policies with some optimality guarantees. We evaluate the performance of our schemes under both synthetic and real request traces.

cs.NI

Content Placement in Networks of Similarity Caches

Similarity caching systems have recently attracted the attention of the scientific community, as they can be profitably used in many application contexts, like multimedia retrieval, advertising, object recognition, recommender systems and online content-match applications. In such systems, a user request for an object $o$, which is not in the cache, can be (partially) satisfied by a similar stored object $o$', at the cost of a loss of user utility. In this paper we make a first step into the novel area of similarity caching networks, where requests can be forwarded along a path of caches to get the best efficiency-accuracy tradeoff. The offline problem of content placement can be easily shown to be NP-hard, while different polynomial algorithms can be devised to approach the optimal solution in discrete cases. As the content space grows large, we propose a continuous problem formulation whose solution exhibits a simple structure in a class of tree topologies. We verify our findings using synthetic and realistic request traces.

cs.NI

Asynchronous semi-anonymous dynamics over large-scale networks

We analyze a class of stochastic processes, referred to as asynchronous and semi-anonymous dynamics (ASD), over directed labeled random networks. These processes are a natural tool to describe general best-response and noisy best-response dynamics in network games where each agent, at random times governed by independent Poisson clocks, can choose among a finite set of actions. The payoff is determined by the relative popularity of different actions among neighbors, while being independent of the specific identities of neighbors. Using a mean-field approach, we prove that, under certain conditions on the network and initial node configuration, the evolution of ASD can be approximated, in the limit of large network sizes, by the solution of a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. Our framework is very general and applies to a large class of graph ensembles for which the typical random graph locally behaves like a tree. In particular, we will focus on labeled configuration-model random graphs, a generalization of the traditional configuration model which allows different classes of nodes to be mixed together in the network, permitting us, for example, to incorporate a community structure in the system. Our analysis also applies to configuration-model graphs having a power-law degree distribution, an essential feature of many real systems. To demonstrate the power and flexibility of our framework, we consider several examples of dynamics belonging to our class of stochastic processes. Moreover, we illustrate by simulation the applicability of our analysis to realistic scenarios by running our example dynamics over a real social network graph.

cs.SI

A time-modulated Hawkes process to model the spread of COVID-19 and the impact of countermeasures

Motivated by the recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19), we propose a stochastic model of epidemic temporal growth and mitigation based on a time-modulated Hawkes process. The model is sufficiently rich to incorporate specific characteristics of the novel coronavirus, to capture the impact of undetected, asymptomatic and super-diffusive individuals, and especially to take into account time-varying counter-measures and detection efforts. Yet, it is simple enough to allow scalable and efficient computation of the temporal evolution of the epidemic, and exploration of what-if scenarios. Compared to traditional compartmental models, our approach allows a more faithful description of virus specific features, such as distributions for the time spent in stages, which is crucial when the time-scale of control (e.g., mobility restrictions) is comparable to the lifetime of a single infection. We apply the model to the first and second wave of COVID-19 in Italy, shedding light into several effects related to mobility restrictions introduced by the government, and to the effectiveness of contact tracing and mass testing performed by the national health service.

q-bio.PE

Bootstrap percolation on the stochastic block model with k communities

We analyze the bootstrap percolation process on the stochastic block model (SBM), a natural extension of the Erdös--Rényi random graph that allows representing the "community structure" observed in many real systems. In the SBM, nodes are partitioned into subsets, which represent different communities, and pairs of nodes are independently connected with a probability that depends on the communities they belong to. Under mild assumptions on system parameters, we prove the existence of a sharp phase transition for the final number of active nodes and characterize sub-critical and super-critical regimes in terms of the number of initially active nodes, which are selected uniformly at random in each community.

math.PR

A large deviation approach to super-critical bootstrap percolation on the random graph $G_{n,p}$

We consider the Erdös--Rényi random graph $G_{n,p}$ and we analyze the simple irreversible epidemic process on the graph, known in the literature as bootstrap percolation. We give a quantitative version of some results by Janson et al. (2012), providing a fine asymptotic analysis of the final size $A_n^*$ of active nodes, under a suitable super-critical regime. More specifically, we establish large deviation principles for the sequence of random variables $\{\frac{n- A_n^*}{f(n)}\}_{n\geq 1}$ with explicit rate functions and allowing the scaling function $f$ to vary in the widest possible range.

math.PR

On the Emergence of Shortest Paths by Reinforced Random Walks

The co-evolution between network structure and functional performance is a fundamental and challenging problem whose complexity emerges from the intrinsic interdependent nature of structure and function. Within this context, we investigate the interplay between the efficiency of network navigation (i.e., path lengths) and network structure (i.e., edge weights). We propose a simple and tractable model based on iterative biased random walks where edge weights increase over time as function of the traversed path length. Under mild assumptions, we prove that biased random walks will eventually only traverse shortest paths in their journey towards the destination. We further characterize the transient regime proving that the probability to traverse non-shortest paths decays according to a power-law. We also highlight various properties in this dynamic, such as the trade-off between exploration and convergence, and preservation of initial network plasticity. We believe the proposed model and results can be of interest to various domains where biased random walks and decentralized navigation have been applied.

cs.NE

Generalized threshold-based epidemics in random graphs: the power of extreme values

Bootstrap percolation is a well-known activation process in a graph, in which a node becomes active when it has at least $r$ active neighbors. Such process, originally studied on regular structures, has been recently investigated also in the context of random graphs, where it can serve as a simple model for a wide variety of cascades, such as the spreading of ideas, trends, viral contents, etc. over large social networks. In particular, it has been shown that in $G(n,p)$ the final active set can exhibit a phase transition for a sub-linear number of seeds. In this paper, we propose a unique framework to study similar sub-linear phase transitions for a much broader class of graph models and epidemic processes. Specifically, we consider i) a generalized version of bootstrap percolation in $G(n,p)$ with random activation thresholds and random node-to-node influences; ii) different random graph models, including graphs with given degree sequence and graphs with community structure (block model). The common thread of our work is to show the surprising sensitivity of the critical seed set size to extreme values of distributions, which makes some systems dramatically vulnerable to large-scale outbreaks. We validate our results running simulation on both synthetic and real graphs.

cs.SI

A unified approach to the performance analysis of caching systems

We propose a unified methodology to analyse the performance of caches (both isolated and interconnected), by extending and generalizing a decoupling technique originally known as Che's approximation, which provides very accurate results at low computational cost. We consider several caching policies, taking into account the effects of temporal locality. In the case of interconnected caches, our approach allows us to do better than the Poisson approximation commonly adopted in prior work. Our results, validated against simulations and trace-driven experiments, provide interesting insights into the performance of caching systems.

cs.NI

Unravelling the Impact of Temporal and Geographical Locality in Content Caching Systems

To assess the performance of caching systems, the definition of a proper process describing the content requests generated by users is required. Starting from the analysis of traces of YouTube video requests collected inside operational networks, we identify the characteristics of real traffic that need to be represented and those that instead can be safely neglected. Based on our observations, we introduce a simple, parsimonious traffic model, named Shot Noise Model (SNM), that allows us to capture temporal and geographical locality of content popularity. The SNM is sufficiently simple to be effectively employed in both analytical and scalable simulative studies of caching systems. We demonstrate this by analytically characterizing the performance of the LRU caching policy under the SNM, for both a single cache and a network of caches. With respect to the standard Independent Reference Model (IRM), some paradigmatic shifts, concerning the impact of various traffic characteristics on cache performance, clearly emerge from our results.

cs.NI

Efficient analysis of caching strategies under dynamic content popularity

In this paper we develop a novel technique to analyze both isolated and interconnected caches operating under different caching strategies and realistic traffic conditions. The main strength of our approach is the ability to consider dynamic contents which are constantly added into the system catalogue, and whose popularity evolves over time according to desired profiles. We do so while preserving the simplicity and computational efficiency of models developed under stationary popularity conditions, which are needed to analyze several caching strategies. Our main achievement is to show that the impact of content popularity dynamics on cache performance can be effectively captured into an analytical model based on a fixed content catalogue (i.e., a catalogue whose size and objects' popularity do not change over time).

cs.PF