arXiv subjects

Michele Mancarella

Publications and source records attributed to Michele Mancarella.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Assessing the Impact of Instrumental Requirements on the Scientific Performance of the Einstein Telescope

We investigate the relationship between instrumental requirements and the scientific performance of the Einstein Telescope (ET), a third-generation (3G) gravitational-wave (GW) observatory. Different technical design choices result in distinct noise budgets, ultimately shaping the detector's scientific capabilities. To systematically assess and compare their impact, we define a comprehensive set of performance metrics spanning compact binary coalescence (CBC) detection and parameter estimation, as well as other sources, including stochastic GW backgrounds, isolated spinning neutron stars, and core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe). We build a comparative reference framework that links degradations in specific noise contributions and frequency bands to losses in scientific capabilities. We consider a representative selection of technical parameters, such as coating and suspension temperatures, the filter cavity length in the low-frequency instrument, and the beam size in the high-frequency instrument. We evaluate how sensitivity variations across specific frequency bands affect different scientific objectives. We quantify how the sensitivity below 30 Hz impacts the detectability of massive and/or high-redshift sources and the reconstruction of long-duration CBC signals, affecting early warning and sky localization for binary neutron stars (BNSs). Sensitivity in the 30-450 Hz range governs most CBC parameter-estimation metrics, while high-frequency sensitivity above ~450 Hz predominantly impacts BNS post-merger studies and CCSN detectability, with modest effects on detection rates. Even with the most significant degradations considered, the ET science case remains robust overall. Our results provide a comprehensive benchmark linking scientific objectives to instrumental requirements, particularly important as the final design and infrastructure of 3G observatories are being defined.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Gravitational-wave constraints on $H_0$ are robust to (putative) redshift evolution in the binary black hole mass spectrum at current sensitivity

Spectral-siren cosmology constrains the Hubble constant $H_0$ using gravitational-wave observations of compact-binary coalescences. The method combines luminosity distances inferred from the waveform with redshift information statistically encoded in population features of the source-frame mass spectrum. Because the detector measures redshifted masses, structure in the intrinsic mass distribution acts as an internal ``ruler'', making the inference sensitive to assumptions about the population model. In particular, redshift evolution of the mass spectrum is widely discussed as a potential systematic for $H_0$ measurements. We revisit spectral-siren constraints with the GWTC-4.0 binary black hole catalog, explicitly allowing the main mass scales of a standard parametric mass model to evolve with redshift. We find no compelling evidence for evolution at current sensitivity. Allowing evolution produces a modest, non--statistically--significant shift of the $H_0$ posterior toward lower values, which we interpret with targeted posterior and event-level diagnostics. Importantly, the associated systematic uncertainty is subdominant to that induced by alternative redshift-independent descriptions of the mass spectrum, such as the number of spectral features and the functional form used to model them. Our results indicate that, at current sensitivity, spectral-siren constraints on $H_0$ are robust to redshift evolution of the mass spectrum within the flexibility explored here. Using injection studies, we show that this mild $H_0$ shift is reproduced when a non-evolving underlying population is analyzed with an evolving model, consistent with an over-flexible population description at the present signal-to-noise. The sign and magnitude of the shift can, however, depend on detector sensitivity and redshift reach as the population features become increasingly constrained directly by the data.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Cosmology and modified GW propagation from the BNS mass function at third-generation detector networks

We perform forecasts for the Hubble parameter H_0 and for the parameter Xi_0 that describes modified gravitational-wave propagation, using information from the binary neutron star (BNS) mass function, for Einstein Telescope (ET), taken either in the triangle or in the ``2L'' configuration, as well as for detector network made by ET together with a 40-km Cosmic Explorer (CE). We restrict ourselves to BNSs with a large signal-to-noise ratio, SNR>50, which still give O(10^3) events yr-1, and we perform a full joint cosmology-population Bayesian inference. We find that, for ET in isolation, the two ET configurations perform comparably, yielding uncertainties of 12% and 11% on H_0 for the triangular and 2L designs, respectively, and 18% uncertainty on Xi_0 in both cases. For networks including ET and CE, we can constrain H_0 and Xi_0 to precisions of 9% and 6%, respectively. These results should be taken as a very conservative estimate of third-generation detectors' capabilities as a consequence of the high SNR cut. We project the constraints on the Lambda CDM expansion history and find that ET alone (triangular and 2L configurations) achieves its best precision on H(z) at z=0.23 and z=0.28, yielding a 10% and 6% precision, respectively. When CE is added to the network, the precision improves to 4% and 3% at z=0.37 and z=0.38, respectively.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

Pushing spectral siren cosmology into the third-generation era: a blinded mock data challenge

Gravitational wave (GW) spectral sirens offer a promising method for measuring cosmological parameters using GW data only - without relying on external redshift information such as electromagnetic counterparts or galaxy catalogs - by exploiting distributional features in the population of GW sources. The advent of third-generation detectors like the Einstein Telescope (ET) will provide catalogs three orders of magnitudes larger than current ones, raising questions about the scalability and robustness of existing inference pipelines. We present a blinded mock data challenge that tests three public pipelines with distinct numerical implementations, namely, $\texttt{ICAROGW}$, $\texttt{CHIMERA}$, and $\texttt{pymcpop-gw}$, on simulated ET observations containing the best $\mathcal{O}(10^4)$ binary black hole mergers that can be observed in 1 year. We assess their computational performance, validate their agreement in a blinded setting, and forecast cosmological constraints. We find that, thanks to GPU acceleration, these pipelines can process the events expected from ET within a manageable timeframe. All pipelines recover consistent cosmological and population parameters. Assuming a flat $\Lambda$CDM model, we measure $H(z)$ at $z\sim1.5$ with 2.4% precision, and achieve a mean precision on $H(z)$ of 2.8% across $0.7<z<1.8$ with a catalog of $\sim 12,000$ high-S/N events. This corresponds to joint constraints of $\sim 10%$ on $H_0$ and $\sim 26%$ on $\Omega_{\rm m,0}$. We also identify the events that contribute mostly to constraining cosmological parameters, showing that low-distance sources near population features drive the constraining power on all cosmological parameters, while higher-distance events primarily constrain $\Omega_{\rm m,0}$. Our results establish a validated, performance-tested framework for spectral siren cosmology in the era of third-generation GW observatories.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Probing Cosmic Expansion and Early Universe with Einstein Telescope

Over the next two decades, gravitational-wave (GW) observations are expected to evolve from a discovery-driven endeavour into a precision tool for astrophysics, cosmology, and fundamental physics. Current second-generation ground-based detectors have established the existence of compact-binary mergers and enabled GW multi-messenger astronomy, but they remain limited in sensitivity, redshift reach, frequency coverage, and duty cycle. These limitations prevent them from addressing many fundamental open questions in cosmology. By the 2040s, wide-field electromagnetic surveys will have mapped the luminous Universe with unprecedented depth and accuracy. Nevertheless, key problems including the nature of dark matter, the physical origin of cosmic acceleration, the properties of gravity on cosmological scales, and the physical conditions of the earliest moments after the Big Bang will remain only partially constrained by electromagnetic observations alone. Progress on these fronts requires access to physical processes and epochs that do not emit light. Gravitational waves provide a unique and complementary observational channel: they propagate over cosmological distances largely unaffected by intervening matter, probe extreme astrophysical environments, and respond directly to the geometry of spacetime. In this context, next-generation GW observatories such as the Einstein Telescope (ET) will be transformative for European astronomy. Operating at sensitivities and frequencies beyond existing detectors, ET will observe binary black holes and neutron stars out to previously inaccessible redshifts, enable continuous high signal-to-noise monitoring of compact sources, and detect gravitational-wave backgrounds of astrophysical and cosmological origin. Together with space-based detectors, ET will play a central role in advancing our understanding of cosmic evolution and fundamental physics.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Impact of facility timing and coordination for next-generation gravitational-wave detectors

While the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer proposals for next-generation, ground-based detectors promise vastly improved sensitivities to gravitational-wave signals, only joint observations are expected to enable the full scientific potential of these facilities, making timing and coordination between the efforts crucial to avoid missed opportunities. This study investigates the impact of long-term delays on the scientific capabilities of next-generation detector networks. We use the Fisher information formalism to simulate the performance of a set of detector networks for large, fiducial populations of binary black holes, binary neutron stars, and primordial black-hole binaries. Bootstrapping the simulated populations, we map the expected observation times required to reach a number of observations fulfilling scientific targets for key sensitivity and localization metrics across various network configurations. We also investigate the sensitivity to stochastic backgrounds. We find that purely sensitivity-driven metrics such as the signal-to-noise ratio are not strongly affected by delays between facilities. This is contrasted by the localization metrics, which are very sensitive to the number of detectors in the network and, by extension, to delayed observation campaigns for a detector. Effectively, delays in one detector behave like network-wide interruptions for the localization metrics for networks consisting of two next-generation facilities. We examine the impact of a supporting, current-generation detector such as LIGO India operating concurrently with next-generation facilities and find such an addition will greatly mitigate the negative effects of delays for localization metrics, with important consequences on multi-messenger science and stochastic searches.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Comparison of global networks of third-generation gravitational-wave detectors

We study the performances of a world-wide network made by a European third-generation gravitational-wave (GW) detector, together with a 40km Cosmic Explorer detector in the US, considering three scenarios for the European detector: (1) Einstein Telescope (ET) in its 10km triangle configuration; (2) ET in its configuration featuring two 15km L-shaped detectors in different sites, still taken to have all other ET characteristics (underground, and with each detector made of a high-frequency interferometer and a cryogenic low-frequency interferometer); (3) A single L-shaped underground interferometer with the ET sensitivity curve, either with 15km or with 20km arm length. Overall, we find that, if a configuration with two widely separated L-shaped detectors ("2L") should be retained for ET, the network made by a single-L European underground detector together with CE-40km could already provide a very interesting intermediate step toward the construction of a full 2L+CE network, and is in any case superior to a 10km triangle not inserted in an international network. We also study the performance of a network made by a single L-shaped underground interferometer with the ET sensitivity curve together with a single 40km CE and with LIGO-India (taken at A# sensitivity), and we find that it also has very interesting performances.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Multi-messenger observations in the Einstein Telescope era: binary neutron star and black hole - neutron star mergers

The Einstein Telescope (ET), a proposed next-generation gravitational wave (GW) observatory, will expand the reach of GW astronomy of stellar-mass compact object binaries to unprecedented distances, enhancing opportunities for multi-messenger observations. Here we investigate multi-messenger emission properties of binary neutron star (NSNS) and black hole-neutron star (BHNS) mergers detectable by ET, providing projections to optimize observational strategies and maximize scientific insights from these sources. Using a synthetic population of compact binary mergers, we model each source's GW signal-to-noise ratio, sky localization uncertainty, kilonova (KN) light curves in optical and near-infrared bands, fluence of the relativistic jet gamma-ray burst (GRB) prompt emission and afterglow light curves across radio, optical, X-ray and very high energy wavelengths. We analyze multi-messenger detectability prospects for ET as a standalone observatory with two different configurations and within a network of next-generation GW detectors. ET will detect over $10^4$ NSNS mergers annually, enabling potential observation of tens to hundreds of electromagnetic (EM) counterparts. BHNS mergers have more limited multi-messenger prospects, but joint GW-EM rates will increase by an order of magnitude compared to current-generation instruments. We quantify uncertainties due to the NS equation of state (EoS) and mass distribution of NSNSs, as well as the NS EoS and BH spin for BHNSs. While a single ET will achieve an impressive GW detection rate, the fraction of well-localized events is orders of magnitude lower than in a network with additional detectors. This significantly limits efficient EM follow-up and science cases requiring well-characterized counterparts or early observations. The challenge is even greater for BHNS mergers due to their low EM rate.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Sampling the full hierarchical population posterior distribution in gravitational-wave astronomy

We present a full sampling of the hierarchical population posterior distribution of merging black holes using current gravitational-wave data. We directly tackle the most relevant intrinsic parameter space made of the binary parameters (masses, spin magnitudes, spin directions, redshift) of all the events entering the GWTC-3 LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA catalog, as well as the hyperparameters of the underlying population of sources. This results in a parameter space of about 500 dimensions, in contrast with current investigations where the targeted dimensionality is drastically reduced by marginalizing over all single-event parameters. In particular, we have direct access to (i) population parameters, (ii) population-informed single-event parameters, and (iii) correlations between these two sets of parameters. We quantify the fractional contribution of each event to the constraints on the population hyperparameters. Our implementation relies on modern probabilistic programming languages and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, with a continuous interpolation of single-event posterior probabilities. Sampling the full hierarchical problem is feasible, as demonstrated here, and advantageous as it removes some (but not all) of the Monte Carlo integrations that enter the likelihood together with the related variances.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Cosmology with the angular cross-correlation of gravitational-wave and galaxy catalogs: Forecasts for next-generation interferometers and the Euclid survey

The spatial clustering of galaxies has long been a key probe of cosmology. Gravitational-wave (GW) sources, which provide direct luminosity-distance measurements, have recently emerged as a complementary tracer of large-scale structures. The cross-correlation of GW and galaxy catalogs offers a novel way to test cosmic expansion. We investigate the potential of tomographic GW-galaxy angular power spectra to constrain cosmological parameters, focusing on the Hubble constant and matter density, in the context of third-generation (3G) GW detectors combined with the Euclid survey. We constructed our forecasts using realistic GW source populations and error models calibrated on recent detector designs. We adopted a Fisher-matrix approach, marginalized over nuisance parameters including tracer biases, primordial spectrum parameters, and baryon density, and compared different survey configurations, binning schemes, and GW detector networks. We find that tomographic cross-correlation can constrain $H_0$ at a percent or sub-percent precision, depending on the binning strategy, network configuration, and observing time. Combining galaxy autocorrelations with GW-galaxy cross-correlations improves constraints by up to a factor of ${\sim}10$ relative to either probe alone. We further show that this performance requires multiple interferometers with accurate sky localization, and we discuss the added value of spectroscopic surveys and the detectability of GW clustering bias. Our results demonstrate that this technique, applied to 3G GW detectors in synergy with large galaxy surveys, can deliver competitive measurements of cosmic expansion, even when marginalizing over a wide range of astrophysical and cosmological nuisance parameters.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

The spectral density of astrophysical stochastic backgrounds

We provide a detailed derivation of the spectral density of the stochastic background generated by the superposition of coalescing compact binaries. We show how the expression often used in the literature emerges from an average over the extrinsic parameters of the binaries (times of arrival, polarization angles, arrival directions and orbit inclinations) and how the Stokes parameters related to circular and linear polarization are set to zero by such averaging procedure. We then consider the effect of shot noise, i.e. the fact that for the superposition of a finite number of sources these averages are only approximate, and we show how it generates circular and linear polarizations (even for isotropic backgrounds) as well as spatial anisotropies, and we compute them explicitly for a realistic population of binary black holes and binary neutron stars.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Forecasting the population properties of merging black holes

Third-generation gravitational-wave detectors will observe up to millions of merging binary black holes. With such a vast dataset, stacking events into population analyses will arguably be more important than analyzing single sources. We present the first application of population-level Fisher-matrix forecasts tailored to third-generation gravitational-wave interferometers. We implement the formalism first derived by Gair et al. and explore how future experiments such as Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer will constrain the distributions of black-hole masses, spins, and redshift. Third-generation detectors will be transformative, improving constraints on the population hyperparameters by several orders of magnitude compared to current data. At the same time, we highlight that a single third-generation observatory and a network of detectors will deliver qualitatively similar performances. Obtaining precise measurements of some population features (e.g. peaks in the mass spectrum) will require only a few months of observations while others (e.g. the fraction of binaries with aligned spins) will instead require years if not decades. We argue population forecasts of this kind should be featured in white papers and feasibility studies aimed at developing the science case of future gravitational-wave interferometers.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Accurate Standard Siren Cosmology with Joint Gravitational-Wave and $γ$-Ray Burst Observations

Joint gravitational-wave (GW) and $γ$-ray burst (GRB) observations are among the best prospects for standard siren cosmology. However, the strong selection effect for the coincident GRB detection, which is possible only for sources with small inclination angles, induces a systematic uncertainty that is currently not accounted for. We show that this severe source of bias can be removed by inferring the \emph{a priori} unknown electromagnetic detection probability directly from multimessenger data. This leads at the same time to an unbiased measurement of the Hubble constant, to constrain the properties of GRB emission, and to accurately measure the viewing angle of each source. Our inference scheme is applicable to real data already in the small-statistics regime, a scenario that might become reality in the near future. Additionally, we introduce a novel likelihood approximant for GW events which treats the dependence on distance and inclination as exact.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

The Lunar Gravitational-wave Antenna: Mission Studies and Science Case

The Lunar Gravitational-wave Antenna (LGWA) is a proposed array of next-generation inertial sensors to monitor the response of the Moon to gravitational waves (GWs). Given the size of the Moon and the expected noise produced by the lunar seismic background, the LGWA would be able to observe GWs from about 1 mHz to 1 Hz. This would make the LGWA the missing link between space-borne detectors like LISA with peak sensitivities around a few millihertz and proposed future terrestrial detectors like Einstein Telescope or Cosmic Explorer. In this article, we provide a first comprehensive analysis of the LGWA science case including its multi-messenger aspects and lunar science with LGWA data. We also describe the scientific analyses of the Moon required to plan the LGWA mission.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Confusion noise from astrophysical backgrounds at third-generation gravitational-wave detector networks

At third-generation (3G) gravitational-wave detector networks, compact binaries coalescences produce a ``confusion noise'' due to unresolved sources and to the error in the reconstruction of resolved sources, that can degrade the sensitivity to cosmological backgrounds. We show how to characterize from first-principles this astrophysical confusion noise by reconstructing the resolved sources at a detector network, subtracting them from the data stream of each detector of the network, and then computing the correlation among detector pairs of these ``partially cleaned'' data streams that, beside instrumental noise, contain the unresolved sources and the error on the resolved sources. In a two-detector correlation, this residual astrophysical background then acts as an effective correlated noise. We point out that its effect, in the search for a cosmological background, must be evaluated by correlating two detectors with the filter function that optimizes the given cosmological search (and not the search for the astrophysical background itself) and therefore depends on the specific cosmological signal that we want to extract from the data. We show how to obtain search-independent upper bounds on the effect of this astrophysical confusion noise, and how to characterize its actual effect on a given cosmological search. We then apply this methodology to an example of a 3G network and, for a realistic population of mergers, we evaluate explicitly the upper bound on the effect of the astrophysical confusion noise, as well as its actual effect in the search of selected examples of power-law cosmological backgrounds and of backgrounds featuring broad peaks, as in phase transitions.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Combining underground and on-surface third-generation gravitational-wave interferometers

Recently, detailed studies have been made to compare the performance of the European next generation GW observatory Einstein Telescope (ET) in a single-site triangular configuration with the performance of a configuration featuring two L-shaped detectors in different sites, still taken to have all other ET characteristics except for the geometry, in particular, underground and composed of a low-frequency interferometer working at cryogenic temperatures and a high-frequency interferometer working at room temperature. Here we study a further possibility for a European network, made by a single L-shaped underground detector, like one of the detectors considered for the 2L version of ET, and a single third-generation 20-km L-shaped interferometer on the surface. We compare the performances of such a network to those of the triangle and of the 2L-underground ET configurations. We then examine the performance of an intercontinental network made by a 40-km CE in the US, together with any of these European networks.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Multi-messenger prospects for black hole - neutron star mergers in the O4 and O5 runs

The existence of merging black hole-neutron star (BHNS) binaries has been ascertained through the observation of their gravitational wave (GW) signals. However, to date, no definitive electromagnetic (EM) emission has been confidently associated with these mergers. Such an association could help unravel crucial information on these systems, for example, their BH spin distribution, the equation of state (EoS) of NS and the rate of heavy element production. We model the multi-messenger (MM) emission from BHNS mergers detectable during the fourth (O4) and fifth (O5) observing runs of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA GW detector network, in order to provide detailed predictions that can help enhance the effectiveness of observational efforts and extract the highest possible scientific information from such remarkable events. Our methodology is based on a population synthesis-approach, which includes the modelling of the signal-to-noise ratio of the GW signal in the detectors, the GW-inferred sky localization of the source, the kilonova (KN) optical and near-infrared light curves, the relativistic jet gamma-ray burst (GRB) prompt emission peak photon flux, and the GRB afterglow light curves in the radio, optical and X-ray bands. The resulting prospects for BHNS MM detections during O4 are not promising, with a GW detection rate of $15.0^{+15.4}_{-8.8}$ yr$^{-1}$, but joint MM rates of $\sim 10^{-1}$ yr$^{-1}$ for the KN and $\sim 10^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$ for the jet-related emission. In O5 we find an overall increase in expected detection rates by around an order of magnitude, owing to both the enhanced sensitivity of the GW detector network, and the coming online of future EM facilities. Finally, we discuss direct searches for the GRB radio afterglow with large-field-of-view instruments as a new possible follow-up strategy in the context of ever-dimming prospects for KN detection.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Gravitational Redshift Constraints on the Effective Theory of Interacting Dark Energy

Upcoming galaxy surveys provide the necessary sensitivity to measure gravitational redshift, a general relativistic effect that generates a dipole in galaxy clustering data when correlating two distinct populations of galaxies. Here, we study the constraining power of gravitational redshift within the framework of the effective theory of interacting dark energy. This formalism describes linear cosmological perturbations in scalar-tensor theories of gravity with a limited number of free functions, and allows each particle species to be coupled differently to the gravitational sector. In this work, we focus on Horndeski theories with a non-minimal coupling of dark matter to the scalar degree of freedom, yielding a breaking of the weak equivalence principle for this cosmic component, a scenario that is yet untested. We show that the dipole generated by gravitational redshift significantly breaks degeneracies and tightens the constraints on the parameters of the effective theory compared to the standard redshift-space distortion analysis solely based on the even multipoles in the galaxy correlation function, with an improvement of up to $\sim 50\%$ for populations with a galaxy bias difference equal to 1. We make the Python package EF-TIGRE (Effective Field Theory of Interacting dark energy with Gravitational REdshift) developed for this work publicly available.

astro-ph.CO↗