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Michele Piana

Publications and source records attributed to Michele Piana.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

STIX X-ray microflare observations during the Solar Orbiter commissioning phase

The Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) is the HXR instrument onboard Solar Orbiter designed to observe solar flares over a broad range of flare sizes, between 4-150 keV. We report the first STIX observations of microflares recorded during the instrument commissioning phase in order to investigate the STIX performance at its detection limit. This first result paper focuses on the temporal and spectral evolution of STIX microflares occuring in the AR12765 in June 2020, and compares the STIX measurements with GOES/XRS, SDO/AIA, and Hinode/XRT. For the observed microflares of the GOES A and B class, the STIX peak time at lowest energies is located in the impulsive phase of the flares, well before the GOES peak time. Such a behavior can either be explained by the higher sensitivity of STIX to higher temperatures compared to GOES, or due to the existence of a nonthermal component reaching down to low energies. The interpretation is inconclusive due to limited counting statistics for all but the largest flare in our sample. For this largest flare, the low-energy peak time is clearly due to thermal emission, and the nonthermal component seen at higher energies occurs even earlier. This suggests that the classic thermal explanation might also be favored for the majority of the smaller flares. In combination with EUV and SXR observations, STIX corroborates earlier findings that an isothermal assumption is of limited validity. Future diagnostic efforts should focus on multi-wavelength studies to derive differential emission measure distributions over a wide range of temperatures to accurately describe the energetics of solar flares. Commissioning observations confirm that STIX is working as designed. As a rule of thumb, STIX detects flares as small as the GOES A class. For flares above the GOES B class, detailed spectral and imaging analyses can be performed.

astro-ph.SR↗

Flare Forecasting Algorithms Based on High-Gradient Polarity Inversion Lines in Active Regions

Solar flares emanate from solar active regions hosting complex and strong bipolar magnetic fluxes. Estimating the probability of an active region to flare and defining reliable precursors of intense flares is an extremely challenging task in the space weather field. In this work, we focus on two metrics as flare precursors, the unsigned flux R, tested on MDI/SOHO data and one of the most used parameters for flare forecasting applications, and a novel topological parameter D representing the complexity of a solar active region. More in detail, we propose an algorithm for the computation of the R value which exploits the higher spatial resolution of HMI maps. This algorithm leads to a differently computed R value, whose functionality is tested on a set of cycle 24th solar flares. Furthermore, we introduce a topological parameter based on the automatic recognition of magnetic polarity-inversion lines in identified active regions, and able to evaluate its magnetic topological complexity. We use both a heuristic approach and a supervised machine learning method to validate the effectiveness of these two descriptors to predict the occurrence of X- or M- class flares in a given solar active region during the following 24 hours period. Our feature ranking analysis shows that both parameters play a significant role in prediction performances. Moreover, the analysis demonstrates that the new topological parameter D is the only one, among 173 overall predictors, which is always present for all test subsets and is systematically ranked within the top-ten positions in all tests concerning the computation of the weighs with which each predictor impacts the flare forecasting.

astro-ph.SR↗

Score-oriented loss (SOL) functions

Loss functions engineering and the assessment of forecasting performances are two crucial and intertwined aspects of supervised machine learning. This paper focuses on binary classification to introduce a class of loss functions that are defined on probabilistic confusion matrices and that allow an automatic and a priori maximization of the skill scores. The performances of these loss functions are validated during the training phase of two experimental forecasting problems, thus showing that the probability distribution function associated with the confusion matrices significantly impacts the outcome of the score maximization process.

cs.LG↗

Bad and good errors: value-weighted skill scores in deep ensemble learning

In this paper we propose a novel approach to realize forecast verification. Specifically, we introduce a strategy for assessing the severity of forecast errors based on the evidence that, on the one hand, a false alarm just anticipating an occurring event is better than one in the middle of consecutive non-occurring events, and that, on the other hand, a miss of an isolated event has a worse impact than a miss of a single event, which is part of several consecutive occurrences. Relying on this idea, we introduce a novel definition of confusion matrix and skill scores giving greater importance to the value of the prediction rather than to its quality. Then, we introduce a deep ensemble learning procedure for binary classification, in which the probabilistic outcomes of a neural network are clustered via optimization of these value-weighted skill scores. We finally show the performances of this approach in the case of three applications concerned with pollution, space weather and stock prize forecasting.

cs.LG↗

Feature augmentation for the inversion of the Fourier transform with limited data

We investigate an interpolation/extrapolation method that, given scattered observations of the Fourier transform, approximates its inverse. The interpolation algorithm takes advantage of modelling the available data via a shape-driven interpolation based on Variably Scaled Kernels (VSKs), whose implementation is here tailored for inverse problems. The so-constructed interpolants are used as inputs for a standard iterative inversion scheme. After providing theoretical results concerning the spectrum of the VSK collocation matrix, we test the method on astrophysical imaging benchmarks.

math.NA↗

Visibility Interpolation in Solar Hard X-ray Imaging: Application to RHESSI and STIX

Space telescopes for solar hard X-ray imaging provide observations made of sampled Fourier components of the incoming photon flux. The aim of this study is to design an image reconstruction method relying on enhanced visibility interpolation in the Fourier domain. % methods heading (mandatory) The interpolation-based method is applied on synthetic visibilities generated by means of the simulation software implemented within the framework of the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) mission on board Solar Orbiter. An application to experimental visibilities observed by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) is also considered. In order to interpolate these visibility data we have utilized an approach based on Variably Scaled Kernels (VSKs), which are able to realize feature augmentation by exploiting prior information on the flaring source and which are used here, for the first time, for image reconstruction purposes.} % results heading (mandatory) When compared to an interpolation-based reconstruction algorithm previously introduced for RHESSI, VSKs offer significantly better performances, particularly in the case of STIX imaging, which is characterized by a notably sparse sampling of the Fourier domain. In the case of RHESSI data, this novel approach is particularly reliable when either the flaring sources are characterized by narrow, ribbon-like shapes or high-resolution detectors are utilized for observations. % conclusions heading (optional), leave it empty if necessary The use of VSKs for interpolating hard X-ray visibilities allows a notable image reconstruction accuracy when the information on the flaring source is encoded by a small set of scattered Fourier data and when the visibility surface is affected by significant oscillations in the frequency domain.

astro-ph.IM↗

The role of spectral complexity in connectivity estimation

The study of functional connectivity from magnetoecenphalographic (MEG) data consists in quantifying the statistical dependencies among time series describing the activity of different neural sources from the magnetic field recorded outside the scalp. This problem can be addressed by utilizing connectivity measures whose computation in the frequency domain often relies on the evaluation of the cross-power spectrum of the neural time-series estimated by solving the MEG inverse problem. Recent studies have focused on the optimal determination of the cross-power spectrum in the framework of regularization theory for ill-posed inverse problems, providing indications that, rather surprisingly, the regularization process that leads to the optimal estimate of the neural activity does not lead to the optimal estimate of the corresponding functional connectivity. Along these lines, the present paper utilizes synthetic time series simulating the neural activity recorded by an MEG device to show that the regularization of the cross-power spectrum is significantly correlated with the signal-to-noise ratio of the measurements and that, as a consequence, this regularization correspondingly depends on the spectral complexity of the neural activity.

math.NA↗

Machine learning as a flaring storm warning machine: Was a warning machine for the September 2017 solar flaring storm possible?

Machine learning is nowadays the methodology of choice for flare forecasting and supervised techniques, in both their traditional and deep versions, are becoming the most frequently used ones for prediction in this area of space weather. Yet, machine learning has not been able so far to realize an operating warning system for flaring storms and the scientific literature of the last decade suggests that its performances in the prediction of intense solar flares are not optimal. The main difficulties related to forecasting solar flaring storms are probably two. First, most methods are conceived to provide probabilistic predictions and not to send binary yes/no indications on the consecutive occurrence of flares along an extended time range. Second, flaring storms are typically characterized by the explosion of high energy events, which are seldom recorded in the databases of space missions; as a consequence, supervised methods are trained on very imbalanced historical sets, which makes them particularly ineffective for the forecasting of intense flares. Yet, in this study we show that supervised machine learning could be utilized in a way to send timely warnings about the most violent and most unexpected flaring event of the last decade, and even to predict with some accuracy the energy budget daily released by magnetic reconnection during the whole time course of the storm. Further, we show that the combination of sparsity-enhancing machine learning and feature ranking could allow the identification of the prominent role that energy played as an Active Region property in the forecasting process.

astro-ph.SR↗

Gain and Loss of Function mutations in biological chemical reaction networks: a mathematical model with application to colorectal cancer cells

This paper studies a system of Ordinary Differential Equations modeling a chemical reaction network and derives from it a simulation tool mimicking Loss of Function and Gain of Function mutations found in cancer cells. More specifically, from a theoretical perspective, our approach focuses on the determination of moiety conservation laws for the system and their relation with the corresponding stoichiometric surfaces. Then we show that Loss of Function mutations can be implemented in the model via modification of the initial conditions in the system, while Gain of Function mutations can be implemented by eliminating specific reactions. Finally, the model is utilized to examine in detail the G1-S phase of a colorectal cancer cell.

q-bio.MN↗

MEM_GE: a new maximum entropy method for image reconstruction from solar X-ray visibilities

Maximum Entropy is an image reconstruction method conceived to image a sparsely occupied field of view and therefore particularly appropriate to achieve super-resolution effects. Although widely used in image deconvolution, this method has been formulated in radio astronomy for the analysis of observations in the spatial frequency domain, and an Interactive Data Language (IDL) code has been implemented for image reconstruction from solar X-ray Fourier data. However, this code relies on a non-convex formulation of the constrained optimization problem addressed by the Maximum Entropy approach and this sometimes results in unreliable reconstructions characterized by unphysical shrinking effects. This paper introduces a new approach to Maximum Entropy based on the constrained minimization of a convex functional. In the case of observations recorded by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI), the resulting code provides the same super-resolution effects of the previous algorithm, while working properly also when that code produces unphysical reconstructions. Results are also provided of testing the algorithm with synthetic data simulating observations of the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) in Solar Orbiter. The new code is available in the {\em{HESSI}} folder of the Solar SoftWare (SSW)tree.

astro-ph.SR↗

Radiomics and artificial intelligence analysis of CT data for the identification of prognostic features in multiple myeloma

Multiple Myeloma (MM) is a blood cancer implying bone marrow involvement, renal damages and osteolytic lesions. The skeleton involvement of MM is at the core of the present paper, exploiting radiomics and artificial intelligence to identify image-based biomarkers for MM. Preliminary results show that MM is associated to an extension of the intrabone volume for the whole body and that machine learning can identify CT image features mostly correlating with the disease evolution. This computational approach allows an automatic stratification of MM patients relying of these biomarkers and the formulation of a prognostic procedure for determining the disease follow-up.

q-bio.TO↗

Mathematical modelling of nuclear medicine data

Positron Emission Tomography using 2-[18F]-2deoxy-D-glucose as radiotracer (FDG-PET) is currently one of the most frequently applied functional imaging methods in clinical applications. The interpretation of FDG-PET data requires sophisticated mathematical approaches able to exploit the dynamical information contained in this kind of data. Most of these approaches are formulated within the framework of compartmental analysis, which connects the experimental nuclear data with unknown tracer coefficients measuring the effectiveness of the tracer metabolism by means of Cauchy systems of ordinary differential equations. This paper provides a coincise overview of linear compartmental methods, focusing on the analytical solution of the forward compartmental problem and on the specific issues concerning the corresponding compartmental inverse problem.

q-bio.TO↗

On the two-step estimation of the cross--power spectrum for dynamical inverse problems

We consider the problem of reconstructing the cross--power spectrum of an unobservable multivariate stochatic process from indirect measurements of a second multivariate stochastic process, related to the first one through a linear operator. In the two--step approach, one would first compute a regularized reconstruction of the unobservable signal, and then compute an estimate of its cross--power spectrum from the regularized solution. We investigate whether the optimal regularization parameter for reconstruction of the signal also gives the best estimate of the cross--power spectrum. We show that the answer depends on the regularization method, and specifically we prove that, under a white Gaussian assumption: (i) when regularizing with truncated SVD the optimal parameter is the same; (ii) when regularizing with the Tikhonov method, the optimal parameter for the cross--power spectrum is lower than half the optimal parameter for the signal. We also provide evidence that a one--step approach would likely have better mathematical properties of the two--step approach. Our results apply particularly to the brain connectivity estimation from magneto/electro-encephalographic recordings and provide a formal interpretation of recent empirical results.

math.NA↗

Computational approaches for parametric imaging of dynamic PET data

Parametric imaging of nuclear medicine data exploits dynamic functional images in order to reconstruct maps of kinetic parameters related to the metabolism of a specific tracer injected in the biological tissue. From a computational viewpoint, the realization of parametric images requires the pixel-wise numerical solution of compartmental inverse problems that are typically ill-posed and nonlinear. In the present paper we introduce a fast numerical optimization scheme for parametric imaging relying on a regularized version of the standard affine-scaling Trust Region method. The validation of this approach is realized in a simulation framework for brain imaging and comparison of performances is made with respect to a regularized Gauss-Newton scheme and a standard nonlinear least-squares algorithm.

math.NA↗

Feature ranking of active region source properties in solar flare forecasting and the uncompromised stochasticity of flare occurrence

Solar flares originate from magnetically active regions but not all solar active regions give rise to a flare. Therefore, the challenge of solar flare prediction benefits by an intelligent computational analysis of physics-based properties extracted from active region observables, most commonly line-of-sight or vector magnetograms of the active-region photosphere. For the purpose of flare forecasting, this study utilizes an unprecedented 171 flare-predictive active region properties, mainly inferred by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI) in the course of the European Union Horizon 2020 FLARECAST project. Using two different supervised machine learning methods that allow feature ranking as a function of predictive capability, we show that: i) an objective training and testing process is paramount for the performance of every supervised machine learning method; ii) most properties include overlapping information and are therefore highly redundant for flare prediction; iii) solar flare prediction is still - and will likely remain - a predominantly probabilistic challenge.

astro-ph.SR↗

Automated Definition of Skeletal Disease Burden in Metastatic Prostate Carcinoma: a 3D analysis of SPECT/CT images

To meet the current need for skeletal tumor-load estimation in prostate cancer (mCRPC), we developed a novel approach, based on adaptive bone segmentation. In this study, we compared the program output with existing estimates and with the radiological outcome. Seventy-six whole-body 99mTc-DPD-SPECT/CT from mCRPC patients were analyzed. The software identified the whole skeletal volume (SVol) and classified it voxels metastases (MVol) or normal bone (BVol). SVol was compared with the estimation of a commercial software. MVol was compared with manual assessment and with PSA-level. Counts/voxel were extracted from MVol and BVol. After six cycles of 223RaCl2-therapy every patient was re-evaluated as progressing (PD), stabilized (SD) or responsive (PR). SVol correlated with the one of the commercial software (R=0,99, p<0,001). MVol correlated with manually-counted lesions (R=0,61, p<0,001) and PSA (R=0,46, p<0.01). PD had a lower counts/voxel in MVol than PR/SD (715 \pm 190 Vs. 975 \pm 215 and 1058 \pm 255, p<0,05 and p<0,01) and in BVol (PD 275 \pm 60, PR 515 \pm 188 and SD 528 \pm 162 counts/voxel, p<0,001). Segmentation-based tumor load correlated with radiological/laboratory indices. Uptake was linked with the clinical outcome, suggesting that metastases in PD patients have a lower affinity for bone-seeking radionuclides and might benefit less from bone-targeted radioisotope therapies.

q-bio.TO↗

Desaturating EUV observations of solar flaring storms

Image saturation has been an issue for several instruments in solar astronomy, mainly at EUV wavelengths. However, with the launch of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) as part of the payload of the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) image saturation has become a big data issue, involving around 10^$ frames of the impressive dataset this beautiful telescope has been providing every year since February 2010. This paper introduces a novel desaturation method, which is able to recover the signal in the saturated region of any AIA image by exploiting no other information but the one contained in the image itself. This peculiar methodological property, jointly with the unprecedented statistical reliability of the desaturated images, could make this algorithm the perfect tool for the realization of a reconstruction pipeline for AIA data, able to work properly even in the case of long-lasting, very energetic flaring events.

astro-ph.SR↗

A count-based imaging model for the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) in Solar Orbiter

The Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) will look at solar flares across the hard X-ray window provided by the Solar Orbiter cluster. Similarly to the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI), STIX is a visibility-based imaging instrument, which will ask for Fourier-based image reconstruction methods. However, in this paper we show that, as for RHESSI, also for STIX count-based imaging is possible. Specifically, here we introduce and illustrate a mathematical model that mimics the STIX data formation process as a projection from the incoming photon flux into a vector made of 120 count components. Then we test the reliability of Expectation Maximization for image reconstruction in the case of several simulated configurations typical of flare morphology.

astro-ph.IM↗