arXiv subjects

Michele T. Bannister

Publications and source records attributed to Michele T. Bannister.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

On the Compositions of Interstellar Objects

As physical samples of distant planetary systems, the compositions of interstellar objects (ISOs) should correlate with the properties of their diverse parent stars. We combine a chemical partition model with a sample of stellar elemental abundances from APOGEE DR17 to predict the abundances of commonly-observed cometary volatiles in ISOs. We find that the compositions of ISOs vary significantly between different stars. In particular, we predict a strong correlation between an ISO's ammonia abundance and its parent star's metallicity: high-metallicity stars will create ISOs rich in ammonia. This suggests the production rates of NH$_3$'s photolytic daughter products are an ideal observational tracer for the origins of ISOs. We infer that 2I/Borisov formed around a star of near-solar metallicity ($-0.4\lesssim[\mathrm{Fe}/\mathrm{H}]\lesssim0.3$), and corroborate the velocity- and isotope-based inferences that 3I/ATLAS formed around a lower-metallicity star ($-0.8\lesssim[\mathrm{Fe}/\mathrm{H}]\lesssim0.0$). The production rates of 2I and 3I imply both only contain hypervolatiles such as CO and N$_2$ that are trapped in other less-volatile ices, similar to typical Solar System comets. Despite this, we argue that true hypervolatile-ice-rich ISOs may exist; they would exhibit high CO and N$_2$ production rate ratios, possibly similar to those of C/2016 R2 (PanSTARRS). Our predictions provide context for future ISO discoveries, opening a path to link the properties of their origin systems to observable production rates.

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arXiv2026

AT 2020afjz (TSS2020a): The First Fast Extragalactic Transient Discovered by TESS

We report the discovery of AT 2020afjz (TSS2020a): the first hour-scale extragalactic transient discovered in optical wavelengths whose complete evolution -- from explosion onset to decay -- is temporally resolved, and the first such transient discovered by TESS. AT 2020afjz was identified as a $>10σ$ detection in the pilot HiLaTS program run within the TESSELLATE Sky Survey, which blindly searches for transient phenomena in TESS data with the TESSELLATE pipeline. Through cross-matching with legacy imaging, we associate it with DES J042144.37$-$383311.3, a member of an interacting galaxy pair at $z_{\rm phot}=0.67^{+0.07}_{-0.10}$. While AT 2020afjz is similar in duration and brightness to GRB afterglows, it exhibits a slow rise time of $\sim1$ hr and lasts for only 2.4 hr above the half-max brightness; modeling the TESS light curve with VegasAfterglow finds that it is best described as either an on-axis "dirty-fireball" or off-axis orphan afterglow. Each of these rare classifications hinge upon a non-detection at gamma-ray energies, but as Fermi-GBM was Earth-occulted at the time of explosion, AT 2020afjz's gamma-quiet nature cannot be definitively confirmed. Regardless, AT 2020afjz demonstrates TESS's power to discover fast extragalactic transients, and heralds a new population awaiting discovery with TESSELLATE.

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arXiv2026

There and back again: the quasi-interstellar objects

A population of interstellar objects (ISOs) exist that originate from the Solar System, rather than from other stars. Such a foreground could challenge straightforward analysis of the ISO sample expected to be gathered by upcoming sky surveys. We assess whether small bodies unbound from the Solar System can experience dynamical evolution in the Galactic potential that places them on re-encounter trajectories. We find that these 'quasi-interstellar objects' (quasi-ISOs) primarily depart the Solar System through erosion of the outer Oort cloud in the past few hundred Myr, excluding the most recent ~10 Myr. After orbiting in the Milky Way potential nearby the Sun but beyond the tidal radius, those ejected on certain orbits can re-encounter the Solar System. Meanwhile, the larger population of ISOs produced by the Solar System early in its life will be too spread-out in the Galaxy to contribute significantly to the observed sample. We predict that quasi-ISOs will be intrinsically rare and have $v_\infty$ values of order 0.1 km s$^{-1}$, easily distinguishable from ISOs from other stars, meaning that the observed ISO sample will be truly Galactic. The detection of a quasi-ISO would imply larger-than-expected losses from the Oort cloud, or a particularly catastrophic erosion event 10-300 Myr ago that would not be detectable any other way.

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arXiv2026

NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory Observations of Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS (C/2025 N1)

We report on the observation and measurement of astrometry, photometry, morphology, and activityof the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, also designated C/2025 N1 (ATLAS) with the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Comet 3I/ATLAS, the third known interstellar object, was discovered on UT 2025 July 1. Rubin Observatory had coincidentally collected images of the object's region of the sky during routine commissioning. Facilitated by Rubin's high resolution and large aperture, we successfully recovered object detections from Rubin observations spanning UT 2025 June 21 (10 days before discovery, when 3I/ATLAS was 4.5 au from the Sun) through the date of discovery, and we acquired additional images through UT 2025 July 20 as part of commissioning. We measure on-sky locations of 3I/ATLAS in Rubin ugrizy bands, with a typical precision of about 70 mas, and briefly describe the reason this is coarser than our measured static source astrometric precision of about 3 mas in Rubin images. We measure grizy magnitudes of 3I/ATLAS photometry at about 0.01 mag precision, detecting no short-term photometric variability above 0.01 mag. We derive an estimated near-nucleus dust-to-nucleus scattering cross-section ratio of eta >= 13 on UT 2025 July 2 based on Rubin photometry and an upper limit nucleus size computed from Hubble Space Telescope observations. We find Rubin colors of g - r = (0.657 +/- 0.013) mag, r - i = (0.235 +/- 0.018) mag, i - z = (0.147 +/- 0.042) mag, z - y = (0.047 +/- 0.052) mag. These data represent the earliest observations of this object by a large (>=8-meter class) telescope and illustrate the type of measurements (and discoveries) Rubin's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will begin to provide after it begins in early 2026.

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arXiv2026

Cow-culation: Reentry Impact Risk to Livestock in the Satellite Megaconstellation Era

The commercial space industry is launching more satellites into Low Earth Orbit every year. Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) has a thriving dairy and cattle industry. Unfortunately, these industries could come into (high speed) cow-llision, as the rapid launch rate and short operational lifetimes of satellites in megaconstellations like Starlink result in a high reentry rate at NZ's latitudes. This could intersect with NZ's famously large population of livestock. We predict this will be an udder disaster for any cows that are hit, as they are squishy and moo-ve much more slowly than space debris. Using a global bovine density dataset, previously published satellite casualty probability code, and a complete lack of funding to do this calculation carefully enough for submission to a peer-reviewed journal, we calculate a $\simeq 0.3-1% chance of a cow-sualty in NZ from reentering Starlink Gen2 debris over the next 5 years.

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arXiv2026

Col-OSSOS: Investigating the Origins of Different Surfaces in the Primordial Kuiper Belt

The Colours of the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (Col-OSSOS) measured the optical/NIR colours of a brightness-complete sample of Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs). Like previous surveys, this one found a bimodal colour distribution in TNOs, categorised as red and very red. Additionally, this survey proposed an alternative surface classification scheme: FaintIR and BrightIR. Cold classical TNOs mostly have very red or FaintIR surfaces, while dynamically excited TNOs show a mixture of surfaces. This likely indicates that formation locations and proximity to the Sun influenced surface characteristics and color changes. Our study combines the data from Col-OSSOS with two dynamical models describing the formation of the Kuiper belt during Neptune's migration. We investigate the proposed surface-colour changing line and explore the distribution of different surfaces within the primordial disk. By comparing radial colour transitions across various scenarios, we explore the origins of surface characteristics and their implications within the context of BrightIR and FaintIR classifications. Moreover, we extend our analysis to examine the distribution of these surface classes within the present-day Kuiper Belt, providing insights into the configuration of the early solar system's planetesimal disk prior to giant planet migration. We find that the most likely primordial disk compositions are inner neutral / outer red (with transition $30.0^{+1.1}_{-1.2}$ au), or inner BrightIR / outer FaintIR (with transition $31.5^{+1.1}_{-1.2}$ au).

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arXiv2025

The ejection velocities of interstellar objects signpost their progenitor system architectures

Interstellar objects (ISOs) ejected from planetary systems carry kinematic signatures of their formation environments. The properties of these velocity distributions govern the ISOs' propagation and dynamical evolution in the Galactic potential. We investigate how planetary system architecture influences ISO production during post-gas-disc dynamical instabilities using N-body simulations. We explore the ISO production outcomes of 2461 randomly generated systems spanning total system masses of 300-800 Earth masses and multiplicities of 3-7 planets. By integrating planets embedded in a disc of test particles for 10 Myr, we find that evolving systems can be broadly divided into two distinct classes based on their initial architectures. Catastrophic systems are characterized by high multiplicities and orbitally compact configurations, or by high-mass planets in systems with large mass asymmetries. These systems eject a large fraction of their planetesimals (median 59 percent) and, depending on the ejection pathway, produce high-speed ISOs (median 2.9 km/s). In contrast, quiet systems have lower masses and multiplicities and do not undergo significant orbital rearrangement, yet still eject a median of 28 percent of planetesimals at lower velocities (median 1.6 km/s). This dichotomy points to distinct ejection pathways, involving either violent global instabilities or more gradual, diffusive processes. Overall, we find that ISO ejection velocities are typically low, on the order of a few km/s. Although ISOs subsequently experience dynamical heating as they orbit the Galaxy, their velocity distributions retain signatures of their progenitor systems' architectures and histories, underscoring the potential use of ISOs in Galactic archaeology.

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arXiv2025

From a Different Star: 3I/ATLAS in the context of the Ōtautahi-Oxford interstellar object population model

The discovery of the third interstellar object (ISO), 3I/ATLAS (`3I'), provides a rare chance to directly observe a small body from another Solar System. Studying its chemistry and dynamics will add to our understanding of how the processes of planetesimal formation and evolution happen across the Milky Way's disk, and how such objects respond to the Milky Way's potential. In this Letter, we present a first assessment of 3I in the context of the Ōtautahi-Oxford model, which uses data from Gaia in conjunction with models of protoplanetary disk chemistry and Galactic dynamics to predict the properties of the ISO population. The model shows that both the velocity and radiant of 3I are within the expected range. Its velocity predicts an age of over 7.6 Gyr and a high water mass fraction, which may become observable shortly. We also conclude that it is very unlikely that 3I shares an origin with either of the previous two interstellar object detections.

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arXiv2025

Discovery and dynamics of a Sedna-like object with a perihelion of 66 au

Trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with large perihelion distances ($q > 60$ au) and semi-major axes ($a > 200$ au) provide insights into the early evolution of the solar system and the existence of a hypothetical distant planet. These objects are still rare and their detection is challenging, yet they play a crucial role in constraining models of solar system formation. Here we report the discovery of a Sedna-like TNO, 2023\,KQ$_{14}$, nicknamed `Ammonite', with $q = 66$ au, $a = 252$ au, and inclination $i=11^\circ$. Ammonite's orbit does not align with those of the other Sedna-like objects and fills the previously unexplained `$q$-gap' in the observed distribution of distant solar system objects. Simulations demonstrate that Ammonite is dynamically stable over 4.5 billion years. % with less than 1\% variation in its semi-major axis. Our analysis suggests that Ammonite and the other Sedna-like objects may have shared a primordial orbital clustering around 4.2 billion years ago. Furthermore, Ammonite's stable orbit favors larger orbits ($\sim$ 500 au) rather than closer ones for a large hypothetical planet in present-day trans-Neptunian space.

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arXiv2025

Formation of Planetesimals in the Outer Solar System

The Solar System hosts the most studied and best understood major and minor planetary bodies - and the only extraterrestrial bodies to have been visited by spacecraft. The Solar System therefore provides important constraints on both the initial stages of planetary growth, communicated to us by its surviving planetesimal populations, and for the final result of the planet formation process represented by the architecture of the system and properties of the individual planets. We review here models of planetesimal formation in the outer Solar System as well as the wealth of recent observational constraints that has been used to formulate and refine modern planetesimal formation theory.

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arXiv2025

TESSELLATE: Piecing Together the Variable Sky With TESS

We present TESSELLATE, a dedicated pipeline for performing an untargeted search documenting all variable phenomena captured by the TESS space telescope. Building on the TESSreduce difference imaging pipeline, TESSELLATE extracts calibrated and reduced photometric data for every full frame image in the TESS archive. Using this data, we systematically identify transient, variable and non-sidereal signals across timescales ranging from minutes to weeks. The high cadence and wide field of view of TESS enables us to conduct a comprehensive search of the entire sky to a depth of ~17 $m_i$. Based on the volumetric rates for known fast transients, we expect there to be numerous Fast Blue Optical Transients and Gamma Ray Burst afterglows present in the existing TESS dataset. Beyond transients, TESSELLATE can also identify new variable stars and exoplanet candidates, and recover known asteroids. We classify events using machine learning techniques and the work of citizen scientists via the Zooniverse Cosmic Cataclysms project. Finally, we introduce the TESSELLATE Sky Survey: a complete, open catalog of the variable sky observed by TESS.

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arXiv2025

Starkiller: subtracting stars and other sources from IFU spectroscopic data through forward modeling

We present starkiller, an open-source Python package for forward-modeling flux retrieval from integral field unit spectrograph (IFU) datacubes. Starkiller simultaneously provides stellar spectral classification, relative velocity, and line-of-sight extinction for all sources in a catalog, alongside a source-subtracted datacube. It performs synthetic difference imaging by simulating all catalog sources in the field of view, using the catalog for positions and fluxes to scale stellar models, independent of the datacube. This differencing method is particularly powerful for subtracting both point-sources and trailed or even streaked sources from extended astronomical objects. We demonstrate starkiller's effectiveness in improving observations of extended sources in dense stellar fields for VLT/MUSE observations of comets, asteroids and nebulae. We also show that starkiller can treat satellite-impacted VLT/MUSE observations. The package could be applied to tasks as varied as dust extinction in clusters and stellar variability; the stellar modeling using Gaia fluxes is provided as a standalone function. The techniques can be expanded to imagers and to other IFUs.

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arXiv2025

The visibility of the Ōtautahi-Oxford interstellar object population model in LSST

With a new probabilistic technique for sampling interstellar object (ISO) orbits with high efficiency, we assess the observability of ISOs under a realistic cadence for the upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Using the Ōtautahi-Oxford population model, we show that there will be complex on-sky structure in the pattern of direction and velocity revealed by the detected ISO population, with the expected enhanced northern flux complicating efforts to derive population parameters from the LSST's predominately southern footprint. For luminosity functions with slopes of $2.5\leq q_s\leq 4.0$, the most discoverable ISOs have $H_r\simeq 14.6-20.7$; for previously estimated spatial densities, between 6 and 51 total ISOs are expected. The slope of the luminosity function of ISOs will be relatively quickly constrained. Discoveries are evenly split around their perihelion passage and are biased to lower velocities. After their discovery by LSST, it will be rare for ISOs to be visible for less than a month; most will have $m_r \leq 23$ for months, and the window for spectroscopic characterization could be as long as two years. These probabilistic assessments are robust against model or spatial density refinements that change the absolute numbers of ISO discoveries.

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arXiv2025

He awa whiria: the tidal streams of interstellar objects

Upcoming surveys are likely to discover a new sample of interstellar objects (ISOs) within the Solar System, but questions remain about the origin and distribution of this population within the Galaxy. ISOs are ejected from their host systems with a range of velocities, spreading out into tidal streams - analogous to the stellar streams routinely observed from the disruption of star clusters and dwarf galaxies. We create a simulation of ISO streams orbiting in the Galaxy, deriving a simple model for their density distribution over time. We then construct a population model to predict the properties of the streams in which the Sun is currently embedded. We find that the number of streams encountered by the Sun is quite large, ~ 10^6 or more. However, the wide range of stream properties means that for reasonable future samples of ISOs observed in the Solar System, we may see ISOs from the same star ("siblings"), and we are likely to see ISOs from the same star cluster ("cousins"). We also find that ISOs are typically not traceable to their parent star, though this may be possible for ISO siblings. Any ISOs observed with a common origin will come from younger, dynamically colder streams.

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arXiv2025

Snapshot of a new interstellar comet: 3I/ATLAS has a red and featureless spectrum

The interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS is only the third interstellar object to be discovered. Pre-perihelion measurements provide a unique opportunity to study its activity and composition, which may alter as it is heated in the coming months. We provide an initial baseline from optical spectroscopic observations obtained only two days after discovery, using the MUSE instrument on the VLT on 2025 July 3, while 3I was at 4.47 au from the Sun and 3.46 au from the Earth. These observations confirm the cometary nature of 3I, and reveal a red coma with a spectral slope of $(18\pm4)\%/1000$~Å, redder than most Solar System comets but similar to the surface colour of some Solar System Trans-Neptunian Objects or Centaurs. We searched for but did not detect gas emission from C$_2$, NH$_2$, CN, and [OI], which is consistent with volatile non-detections for Solar System comets at this heliocentric distance. At present, the coma appears entirely dusty. Future observations of 3I as it comes closer to the Sun will provide an invaluable opportunity to witness the evolution of its activity, study its composition, test predictions of interstellar object population models, and compare 3I to Solar System comets.

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arXiv2025

A portrait throughout perihelion of the NH$_2$-rich interstellar comet 2I/Borisov

The interstellar comet 2I/Borisov is the first interstellar object where compositional characterisation was possible throughout its entire perihelion passage. We report all 16 epochs of a comprehensive optical observation campaign with ESO VLT's integral field spectrograph MUSE, spanning 126 days from 2019 November 14 to 2020 March 19. The spatial dust emission of 2I/Borisov was predominantly smooth, with no seasonal effect. A jet-like feature was consistently visible. The gas production morphology of its coma was also smooth and similar for C$_2$, NH$_2$, and CN: symmetric around the photocentre. The production rates of these species gently declined into and beyond perihelion, until 2I's outburst and splitting event in early 2020 March. C$_2$, NH$_2$, and CN production rates all increased, with NH$_2$ being the most significant; the dust emission also slightly reddened. 2I/Borisov is a carbon-depleted, relatively NH$_2$-rich comet when compared to those comets yet measured in the Solar System.

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arXiv2025

Semi-analytic Orbits: A Practical Implementation of Lynden-Bell's Planar Orbits and Extension to Vertical Oscillations

We present a practical implementation of the perturbation theory derived by Lynden-Bell (2015) for describing, to arbitrary precision, the orbit of a particle in an arbitrary spherically-symmetric potential. Our implementation corrects minor but important errors in the initial derivation, and extends the formalism in two ways. First, a numerical method is developed to efficiently and precisely solve the analogue to the Kepler problem, and second, a method is introduced to track the particle's vertical oscillations about an axisymmetric disk, even when the vertical oscillation frequency varies with radius. While not as flexible as numerical integration, this method guarantees conservation of energy, angular momentum, and related quantities, and may be used to evaluate a particle's position and velocity in constant time. Our implementation is written in Python and is pip installable as the package lbparticles.

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arXiv2025

An Extremely Deep Rubin Survey to Explore the Extended Kuiper Belt and Identify Objects Observable by New Horizons

A proposed Vera C. Rubin Observatory Deep Drilling micro-survey of the Kuiper Belt will investigate key properties of the distant solar system. Utilizing 30 hours of Rubin time across six 5-hour visits over one year starting in summer 2026, the survey aims to discover and determine orbits for up to 730 Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) to an $r$-magnitude of 27.5. These discoveries will enable precise characterization of the KBO size distribution, which is critical for understanding planetesimal formation. By aligning the survey field with NASA's {\it New Horizons} spacecraft trajectory, the micro-survey will facilitate discoveries for the mission operating in the Kuiper Belt. Modeling based on the Outer Solar System Origin Survey (OSSOS) predicts at least 12 distant KBOs observable with the {\it New Horizons} LOng Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI) and approximately three objects within 1~au of the spacecraft, allowing higher-resolution observations than Earth-based facilities. LORRI's high solar phase angle monitoring will reveal these objects' surface properties and shapes, potentially identifying contact binaries and orbit-class surface correlations. The survey could identify a KBO suitable for a future spacecraft flyby. The survey's size, depth, and cadence design will deliver transformative measurements of the Kuiper Belt's size distribution and rotational properties across distance, size, and orbital class. Additionally, the high stellar density in the survey field also offers synergies with transiting exoplanet studies.

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