arXiv subjects

Michele Tumminello

Publications and source records attributed to Michele Tumminello.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2018

Pricing sovereign contingent convertible debt

We develop a pricing model for Sovereign Contingent Convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread. We model CDS spread regime switching, which is prevalent during crises, as a hidden Markov process, coupled with a mean-reverting stochastic process of spread levels under fixed regimes, in order to obtain S-CoCo prices through simulation. The paper uses the pricing model in a Longstaff-Schwartz American option pricing framework to compute future state contingent S-CoCo prices for risk management. Dual trigger pricing is also discussed using the idiosyncratic CDS spread for the sovereign debt together with a broad market index. Numerical results are reported using S-CoCo designs for Greece, Italy and Germany with both the pricing and contingent pricing models.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2016

Covariance and correlation estimators in bipartite complex systems with a double heterogeneity

We present a weighted estimator of the covariance and correlation in bipartite complex systems with a double layer of heterogeneity. The advantage provided by the weighted estimators lies in the fact that the unweighted sample covariance and correlation can be shown to possess a bias. Indeed, such a bias affects real bipartite systems, and, for example, we report its effects on two empirical systems, one social and the other biological. On the contrary, our newly proposed weighted estimators remove the bias and are better suited to describe such systems.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2016

Party Comrades and Constituency Buddies: Determinants of Private Initiative Cosponsor Networks in a Parliamentary Multiparty System

We study Members of Parliament (MP) private initiative (bill) cosponsor patterns from a European parliamentary multiparty perspective. By applying network detection algorithms, we set out to find the determinants of the cosponsorship patterns. The algorithms detect the initiative networks core communities, after which the variables characterizing the core communities can be analyzed. We found legislative network communities being best characterized by the MPs' party affiliations. The budget motion networks, which constitute roughly half of the data, were found mostly characterized by the MPs' home constituencies and only to a limited extent by the MPs' party affiliations. In comparison to previous findings regarding certain presidential systems, MPs committee assignments or gender were found irrelevant.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Structure and evolution of a European Parliament via a network and correlation analysis

We present a study of the network of relationships among elected members of the Finnish parliament, based on a quantitative analysis of initiative co-signatures, and its evolution over 16 years. To understand the structure of the parliament, we constructed a statistically validated network of members, based on the similarity between the patterns of initiatives they signed. We looked for communities within the network and characterized them in terms of members' attributes, such as electoral district and party. To gain insight on the nested structure of communities, we constructed a hierarchical tree of members from the correlation matrix. Afterwards, we studied parliament dynamics yearly, with a focus on correlations within and between parties, by also distinguishing between government and opposition. Finally, we investigated the role played by specific individuals, at a local level. In particular, whether they act as proponents who gather consensus, or as signers. Our results provide a quantitative background to current theories in political science. From a methodological point of view, our network approach has proven able to highlight both local and global features of a complex social system.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

A comparative analysis of the statistical properties of large mobile phone calling networks

Mobile phone calling is one of the most widely used communication methods in modern society. The records of calls among mobile phone users provide us a valuable proxy for the understanding of human communication patterns embedded in social networks. Mobile phone users call each other forming a directed calling network. If only reciprocal calls are considered, we obtain an undirected mutual calling network. The preferential communication behavior between two connected users can be statistically tested and it results in two Bonferroni networks with statistically validated edges. We perform a comparative analysis of the statistical properties of these four networks, which are constructed from the calling records of more than nine million individuals in Shanghai over a period of 110 days. We find that these networks share many common structural properties and also exhibit idiosyncratic features when compared with previously studied large mobile calling networks. The empirical findings provide us an intriguing picture of a representative large social network that might shed new lights on the modelling of large social networks.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Statistically validated mobile communication networks: Evolution of motifs in European and Chinese data

Big data open up unprecedented opportunities to investigate complex systems including the society. In particular, communication data serve as major sources for computational social sciences but they have to be cleaned and filtered as they may contain spurious information due to recording errors as well as interactions, like commercial and marketing activities, not directly related to the social network. The network constructed from communication data can only be considered as a proxy for the network of social relationships. Here we apply a systematic method, based on multiple hypothesis testing, to statistically validate the links and then construct the corresponding Bonferroni network, generalized to the directed case. We study two large datasets of mobile phone records, one from Europe and the other from China. For both datasets we compare the raw data networks with the corresponding Bonferroni networks and point out significant differences in the structures and in the basic network measures. We show evidence that the Bonferroni network provides a better proxy for the network of social interactions than the original one. By using the filtered networks we investigated the statistics and temporal evolution of small directed 3-motifs and conclude that closed communication triads have a formation time-scale, which is quite fast and typically intraday. We also find that open communication triads preferentially evolve to other open triads with a higher fraction of reciprocated calls. These stylized facts were observed for both datasets.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Networked relationships in the e-MID Interbank market: A trading model with memory

Interbank markets are fundamental for bank liquidity management. In this paper, we introduce a model of interbank trading with memory. Our model reproduces features of preferential trading patterns in the e-MID market recently empirically observed through the method of statistically validated networks. The memory mechanism is used to introduce a proxy of trust in the model. The key idea is that a lender, having lent many times to a borrower in the past, is more likely to lend to that borrower again in the future than to other borrowers, with which the lender has never (or has in- frequently) interacted. The core of the model depends on only one parameter representing the initial attractiveness of all the banks as borrowers. Model outcomes and real data are compared through a variety of measures that describe the structure and properties of trading networks, including number of statistically validated links, bidirectional links, and 3-motifs. Refinements of the pairing method are also proposed, in order to capture finite memory and reciprocity in the model. The model is implemented within the Mason framework in Java.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2014

Emergence of statistically validated financial intraday lead-lag relationships

According to the leading models in modern finance, the presence of intraday lead-lag relationships between financial assets is negligible in efficient markets. With the advance of technology, however, markets have become more sophisticated. To determine whether this has resulted in an improved market efficiency, we investigate whether statistically significant lagged correlation relationships exist in financial markets. We introduce a numerical method to statistically validate links in correlation-based networks, and employ our method to study lagged correlation networks of equity returns in financial markets. Crucially, our statistical validation of lead-lag relationships accounts for multiple hypothesis testing over all stock pairs. In an analysis of intraday transaction data from the periods 2002--2003 and 2011--2012, we find a striking growth in the networks as we increase the frequency with which we sample returns. We compute how the number of validated links and the magnitude of correlations change with increasing sampling frequency, and compare the results between the two data sets. Finally, we compare topological properties of the directed correlation-based networks from the two periods using the in-degree and out-degree distributions and an analysis of three-node motifs. Our analysis suggests a growth in both the efficiency and instability of financial markets over the past decade.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2012

How news affect the trading behavior of different categories of investors in a financial market

We investigate the trading behavior of a large set of single investors trading the highly liquid Nokia stock over the period 2003-2008 with the aim of determining the relative role of endogenous and exogenous factors that may affect their behavior. As endogenous factors we consider returns and volatility, whereas the exogenous factors we use are the total daily number of news and a semantic variable based on a sentiment analysis of news. Linear regression and partial correlation analysis of data show that different categories of investors are differently correlated to these factors. Governmental and non profit organizations are weakly sensitive to news and returns or volatility, and, typically, they are more correlated with the former than with the latter. Households and companies, on the contrary, are very sensitive to both endogenous and exogenous factors, and volatility and returns are, on average, much more relevant than the number of news and sentiment, respectively. Finally, financial institutions and foreign organizations are intermediate between these two cases, in terms of both the total explanatory power of these factors and their relative importance.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2011

Identification of clusters of investors from their real trading activity in a financial market

We use statistically validated networks, a recently introduced method to validate links in a bipartite system, to identify clusters of investors trading in a financial market. Specifically, we investigate a special database allowing to track the trading activity of individual investors of the stock Nokia. We find that many statistically detected clusters of investors show a very high degree of synchronization in the time when they decide to trade and in the trading action taken. We investigate the composition of these clusters and we find that several of them show an over-expression of specific categories of investors.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2011

Evolution of worldwide stock markets, correlation structure and correlation based graphs

We investigate the daily correlation present among market indices of stock exchanges located all over the world in the time period Jan 1996 - Jul 2009. We discover that the correlation among market indices presents both a fast and a slow dynamics. The slow dynamics reflects the development and consolidation of globalization. The fast dynamics is associated with critical events that originate in a specific country or region of the world and rapidly affect the global system. We provide evidence that the short term timescale of correlation among market indices is less than 3 trading months (about 60 trading days). The average values of the non diagonal elements of the correlation matrix, correlation based graphs and the spectral properties of the largest eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the correlation matrix are carrying information about the fast and slow dynamics of correlation of market indices. We introduce a measure of mutual information based on link co-occurrence in networks, in order to detect the fast dynamics of successive changes of correlation based graphs in a quantitative way.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2010

Community characterization of heterogeneous complex systems

We introduce an analytical statistical method to characterize the communities detected in heterogeneous complex systems. By posing a suitable null hypothesis, our method makes use of the hypergeometric distribution to assess the probability that a given property is over-expressed in the elements of a community with respect to all the elements of the investigated set. We apply our method to two specific complex networks, namely a network of world movies and a network of physics preprints. The characterization of the elements and of the communities is done in terms of languages and countries for the movie network and of journals and subject categories for papers. We find that our method is able to characterize clearly the identified communities. Moreover our method works well both for large and for small communities.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2010

Statistically validated networks in bipartite complex systems

Many complex systems present an intrinsic bipartite nature and are often described and modeled in terms of networks [1-5]. Examples include movies and actors [1, 2, 4], authors and scientific papers [6-9], email accounts and emails [10], plants and animals that pollinate them [11, 12]. Bipartite networks are often very heterogeneous in the number of relationships that the elements of one set establish with the elements of the other set. When one constructs a projected network with nodes from only one set, the system heterogeneity makes it very difficult to identify preferential links between the elements. Here we introduce an unsupervised method to statistically validate each link of the projected network against a null hypothesis taking into account the heterogeneity of the system. We apply our method to three different systems, namely the set of clusters of orthologous genes (COG) in completely sequenced genomes [13, 14], a set of daily returns of 500 US financial stocks, and the set of world movies of the IMDb database [15]. In all these systems, both different in size and level of heterogeneity, we find that our method is able to detect network structures which are informative about the system and are not simply expression of its heterogeneity. Specifically, our method (i) identifies the preferential relationships between the elements, (ii) naturally highlights the clustered structure of investigated systems, and (iii) allows to classify links according to the type of statistically validated relationships between the connected nodes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2010

When do improved covariance matrix estimators enhance portfolio optimization? An empirical comparative study of nine estimators

The use of improved covariance matrix estimators as an alternative to the sample estimator is considered an important approach for enhancing portfolio optimization. Here we empirically compare the performance of 9 improved covariance estimation procedures by using daily returns of 90 highly capitalized US stocks for the period 1997-2007. We find that the usefulness of covariance matrix estimators strongly depends on the ratio between estimation period T and number of stocks N, on the presence or absence of short selling, and on the performance metric considered. When short selling is allowed, several estimation methods achieve a realized risk that is significantly smaller than the one obtained with the sample covariance method. This is particularly true when T/N is close to one. Moreover many estimators reduce the fraction of negative portfolio weights, while little improvement is achieved in the degree of diversification. On the contrary when short selling is not allowed and T>N, the considered methods are unable to outperform the sample covariance in terms of realized risk but can give much more diversified portfolios than the one obtained with the sample covariance. When T<N the use of the sample covariance matrix and of the pseudoinverse gives portfolios with very poor performance.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2008

Teleportation of atomic states via position measurements

We present a scheme for conditionally teleporting an unknown atomic state in cavity QED, which requires two atoms and one cavity mode. The translational degrees of freedom of the atoms are taken into account using the optical Stern-Gerlach model. We show that successful teleportation with probability 1/2 can be achieved through local measurements of the cavity photon number and atomic positions. Neither direct projection onto highly entangled states nor holonomous interaction-time constraints are required.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2008

Atomic teleportation via cavity QED and position measurements: efficiency analysis

We have recently presented a novel protocol to teleport an unknown atomic state via cavity QED and position measurements. Here, after a brief review of our scheme, we provide a quantitative study of its efficiency. This is accomplished by an explicit description of the measurement process that allows us to derive the fidelity with respect to the atomic internal state to be teleported.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2007

Kullback-Leibler distance as a measure of the information filtered from multivariate data

We show that the Kullback-Leibler distance is a good measure of the statistical uncertainty of correlation matrices estimated by using a finite set of data. For correlation matrices of multivariate Gaussian variables we analytically determine the expected values of the Kullback-Leibler distance of a sample correlation matrix from a reference model and we show that the expected values are known also when the specific model is unknown. We propose to make use of the Kullback-Leibler distance to estimate the information extracted from a correlation matrix by correlation filtering procedures. We also show how to use this distance to measure the stability of filtering procedures with respect to statistical uncertainty. We explain the effectiveness of our method by comparing four filtering procedures, two of them being based on spectral analysis and the other two on hierarchical clustering. We compare these techniques as applied both to simulations of factor models and empirical data. We investigate the ability of these filtering procedures in recovering the correlation matrix of models from simulations. We discuss such an ability in terms of both the heterogeneity of model parameters and the length of data series. We also show that the two spectral techniques are typically more informative about the sample correlation matrix than techniques based on hierarchical clustering, whereas the latter are more stable with respect to statistical uncertainty.

physics.data-an↗