arXiv subjects

Michiel van Lambalgen

Publications and source records attributed to Michiel van Lambalgen.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

On the (ab)use of statistics in the legal case against the nurse Lucia de B

We discuss the statistics involved in the legal case of the nurse Lucia de B. in The Netherlands, 2003-2004. Lucia de B. witnessed an unusually high number of incidents during her shifts, and the question arose as to whether this could be attributed to chance. We discuss and criticise the statistical analysis of Henk Elffers, a statistician who was asked by the prosecutor to write a statistical report on the issue. We discuss several other possibilities for statistical analysis. Our main point is that several statistical models exist, leading to very different predictions, or perhaps different answers to different questions. There is no such thing as a `best' statistical analysis.

math.ST↗

arXiv2017

Reasoning in Non-Probabilistic Uncertainty: Logic Programming and Neural-Symbolic Computing as Examples

This article aims to achieve two goals: to show that probability is not the only way of dealing with uncertainty (and even more, that there are kinds of uncertainty which are for principled reasons not addressable with probabilistic means); and to provide evidence that logic-based methods can well support reasoning with uncertainty. For the latter claim, two paradigmatic examples are presented: Logic Programming with Kleene semantics for modelling reasoning from information in a discourse, to an interpretation of the state of affairs of the intended model, and a neural-symbolic implementation of Input/Output logic for dealing with uncertainty in dynamic normative contexts.

cs.AI↗

arXiv1995

On a Spector ultrapower of the Solovay model

We prove that a Spector--like ultrapower extension $\gN$ of a countable Solovay model $\gM$ (where all sets of reals are Lebesgue measurable) is equal to the set of all sets constructible from reals in a generic extension $\gM[\al]$ where $\al$ is a random real over $\gM.$ The proof involves an almost everywhere uniformization theorem in the Solovay model.

math.LO↗