arXiv subjects

Miguel A. Sordo

Publications and source records attributed to Miguel A. Sordo.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Probability equivalent level for CoVaR and VaR in bivariate Student-\textit{t} copulas with application to foreign exchange risk monitoring

We extend the "probability-equivalent level of VaR and CoVaR" (PELCoV) methodology to accommodate bivariate risks modeled by a Student-t copula, relaxing the strong dependence assumptions of earlier approaches and enhancing the framework's ability to capture tail dependence and asymmetric co-movements. While the theoretical results are developed in a static setting, we implement them dynamically to track evolving risk spillovers over time. We illustrate the practical relevance of our approach through an application to the foreign exchange market, monitoring the USD/GBP exchange rate with the USD/EUR series as an auxiliary early warning indicator over the period 1999-2024. Our results highlight the potential of the extended PELCoV framework to detect early signs of risk underestimation during periods of financial stress.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2024

On partial stochastic comparisons based on tail values at risk

In risk theory, financial asset returns often follow heavy-tailed distributions. Investors and risk managers used to compare risk measures as the value at risk or tail value at risk in order over the whole confidence levels to avoid the exposure to to large risks. In this paper we analyze the comparison between tail values at risk from a confidence level and beyond which is a reasonable criterion when we are focused on large losses or simply we cannot give a complete ordering over all the confidence levels. A family of stochastic orders indexed by $p_0\in(0,1)$ is proposed. We study their properties and connections with other classical criteria as the increasing convex and tail convex orders and we rank some parametrical families of distributions. Finally, two applications with real datasets are given as well.

math.ST↗