arXiv subjects

Miguel González-Leonardo

Publications and source records attributed to Miguel González-Leonardo.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

One country, multiple portraits: representativeness in GPS-based mobility data is source-specific and spatially dependent

Anonymised GPS-based mobile phone data are increasingly used to estimate population distribution and human mobility, supporting applications across disaster response, public health, urban planning and migration research. Yet whether these data fairly represent the populations they describe, particularly outside high-income countries, remains poorly understood. We quantify coverage bias for 2,478 municipalities in Mexico by comparing population estimates from a single-platform source (Facebook) and a multi-app aggregator (Veraset) against the 2020 Mexican Population Census. We find that the magnitude and spatial distribution of coverage bias differ substantially across sources. Facebook provides higher and more evenly distributed coverage, whereas the multi-app data concentrate users in larger, wealthier and more digitally connected places. Coverage bias is also spatially structured, with neighbouring municipalities showing similar levels of over- or under-coverage. Using explainable machine learning, we show that digital access and material resources are the dominant drivers of bias for the multi-app data, while demographic and population structure dominate for Facebook. Explicitly modelling spatial dependence improves the performance of statistical models for explaining bias and reveals that an appreciable share of spatial variation remains unexplained by observed covariates. These findings show that coverage bias is source-specific and spatially dependent, and provide a foundation for adjustments that improve the representativeness of mobile phone data in unequal, data-scarce settings.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Sustained changes to urban mobility after COVID-19 amplified socio-economic inequalities in Latin America

Urban mobility is central to economic activity, social inclusion, and access to essential services. COVID-19 caused disruptions to mobility globally, yet its long-term impacts in less developed countries remain poorly understood. Using over 170 million anonymised mobile phone records from Meta-Facebook users in Argentina, Chile, and Colombia (March 2020 to May 2022), we find sustained changes in mobility across socioeconomic and rural-urban gradients. We reveal that mobility recorded the sharpest declines and remained below pre-pandemic levels in most high-density and low socio-economic deprivation areas, while low-density and more deprived communities returned to baseline. These differences reflect the scale of the initial mobility shock rather than subsequent recovery rates. Net mobility to urban cores remained consistently below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting a shift in their functional role. By revealing how COVID-19 reinforced mobility-related inequalities, we contribute novel evidence for planners and policymakers seeking to build more inclusive and resilient mobility systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Reduced mobility? Urban exodus? Medium-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on internal population movements in Latin American countries

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the national systems of population movement around the world. Existing work has focused on countries of the Global North and restricted to the immediate effects of COVID-19 data during 2020. Data have represented a major limitation to monitor change in mobility patterns in countries in the Global South. Drawing on aggregate anonymised mobile phone location data from Meta-Facebook users, we aim to analyse the extent and persistence of changes in the levels (or intensity) and spatial patterns of internal population movement across the rural-urban continuum in Argentina, Chile and Mexico over a 26-month period from March 2020 to May 2022. We reveal an overall systematic decline in the level of short- and long-distance movement during the enactment of nonpharmaceutical interventions in 2020, with the largest reductions occurred in the most dense areas. We also show that these levels bounced back closer to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 following the relaxation of COVID-19 stringency measures. However, the intensity of these movements has remained below pre-pandemic levels in many areas in 2022. Additionally our findings lend some support to the idea of an urban exodus. They reveal a continuing negative net balances of short-distance movements in the most dense areas of capital cities in Argentina and Mexico, reflecting a pattern of suburbanisation. Chile displays limited changes in the net balance of short-distance movements but reports a net loss of long-distance movements. These losses were, however, temporary, moving to neutral and positive balances in 2021 and 2022.

physics.soc-ph↗