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Miguel Manuel de Villena

Publications and source records attributed to Miguel Manuel de Villena.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Allocation of locally generated electricity in renewable energy communities

Local electricity markets represent a way of supplementing traditional retailing contracts for end consumers -- among these markets, the renewable energy community has gained momentum over the last few years. This paper proposes a practical and readily to be adopted modelling solution for these communities, one that allows their members to share the economic benefits derived from them. The proposed solution relies on an \emph{ex-post} allocation of the electricity that is generated within energy communities (i.e., local electricity) based on the optimisation of \emph{repartition keys}. Repartition keys are therefore optimally computed to represent the proportion of total local electricity to be allocated to each community member, and aim to minimise the sum of electricity bills of all community members. Since the optimisation takes place \emph{ex-post} the repartition keys do not modify the actual electricity flows, but rather the financial flows of the community members. Then, the billing process of the community will take these keys into account to correctly send the electricity bills to each member. Building on this concept, we also introduce two additions to the basic algorithm to enhance the stability of the community, which a global bill minimisation may fail to ensure (e.g., very asymmetrical solutions between members may lead to some of them opting out).

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Probabilistic Forecasting of Imbalance Prices in the Belgian Context

Forecasting imbalance prices is essential for strategic participation in the short-term energy markets. A novel two-step probabilistic approach is proposed, with a particular focus on the Belgian case. The first step consists of computing the net regulation volume state transition probabilities. It is modeled as a matrix computed using historical data. This matrix is then used to infer the imbalance prices since the net regulation volume can be related to the level of reserves activated and the corresponding marginal prices for each activation level are published by the Belgian Transmission System Operator one day before electricity delivery. This approach is compared to a deterministic model, a multi-layer perceptron, and a widely used probabilistic technique, Gaussian Processes.

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