arXiv subjects

Mihaela van der Schaar

Publications and source records attributed to Mihaela van der Schaar.

At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Machine Learning in the Air

Thanks to the recent advances in processing speed and data acquisition and storage, machine learning (ML) is penetrating every facet of our lives, and transforming research in many areas in a fundamental manner. Wireless communications is another success story -- ubiquitous in our lives, from handheld devices to wearables, smart homes, and automobiles. While recent years have seen a flurry of research activity in exploiting ML tools for various wireless communication problems, the impact of these techniques in practical communication systems and standards is yet to be seen. In this paper, we review some of the major promises and challenges of ML in wireless communication systems, focusing mainly on the physical layer. We present some of the most striking recent accomplishments that ML techniques have achieved with respect to classical approaches, and point to promising research directions where ML is likely to make the biggest impact in the near future. We also highlight the complementary problem of designing physical layer techniques to enable distributed ML at the wireless network edge, which further emphasizes the need to understand and connect ML with fundamental concepts in wireless communications.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2019

Feature Selection for Survival Analysis with Competing Risks using Deep Learning

Deep learning models for survival analysis have gained significant attention in the literature, but they suffer from severe performance deficits when the dataset contains many irrelevant features. We give empirical evidence for this problem in real-world medical settings using the state-of-the-art model DeepHit. Furthermore, we develop methods to improve the deep learning model through novel approaches to feature selection in survival analysis. We propose filter methods for hard feature selection and a neural network architecture that weights features for soft feature selection. Our experiments on two real-world medical datasets demonstrate that substantial performance improvements against the original models are achievable.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Distributed Task Management in Cyber-Physical Systems: How to Cooperate under Uncertainty?

We consider the problem of task allocation in a network of cyber-physical systems (CPSs). The network can have different states, and the tasks are of different types. The task arrival is stochastic and state-dependent. Every CPS is capable of performing each type of task with some specific state-dependent efficiency. The CPSs have to agree on task allocation prior to knowing about the realized network's state and/or the arrived tasks. We model the problem as a multi-state stochastic cooperative game with state uncertainty. We then use the concept of deterministic equivalence and sequential core to solve the problem. We establish the non-emptiness of the strong sequential core in our designed task allocation game and investigate its characteristics including uniqueness and optimality. Moreover, we prove that in the task allocation game, the strong sequential core is equivalent to Walrasian equilibrium under state uncertainty; consequently, it can be implemented by using the Walras' tatonnement process.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2018

MATCH-Net: Dynamic Prediction in Survival Analysis using Convolutional Neural Networks

Accurate prediction of disease trajectories is critical for early identification and timely treatment of patients at risk. Conventional methods in survival analysis are often constrained by strong parametric assumptions and limited in their ability to learn from high-dimensional data, while existing neural network models are not readily-adapted to the longitudinal setting. This paper develops a novel convolutional approach that addresses these drawbacks. We present MATCH-Net: a Missingness-Aware Temporal Convolutional Hitting-time Network, designed to capture temporal dependencies and heterogeneous interactions in covariate trajectories and patterns of missingness. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first investigation of temporal convolutions in the context of dynamic prediction for personalized risk prognosis. Using real-world data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, we demonstrate state-of-the-art performance without making any assumptions regarding underlying longitudinal or time-to-event processes attesting to the model's potential utility in clinical decision support.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Estimation of Individual Treatment Effect in Latent Confounder Models via Adversarial Learning

Estimating the individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data is essential in medicine. A central challenge in estimating the ITE is handling confounders, which are factors that affect both an intervention and its outcome. Most previous work relies on the unconfoundedness assumption, which posits that all the confounders are measured in the observational data. However, if there are unmeasurable (latent) confounders, then confounding bias is introduced. Fortunately, noisy proxies for the latent confounders are often available and can be used to make an unbiased estimate of the ITE. In this paper, we develop a novel adversarial learning framework to make unbiased estimates of the ITE using noisy proxies.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Context-Aware Hierarchical Online Learning for Performance Maximization in Mobile Crowdsourcing

In mobile crowdsourcing (MCS), mobile users accomplish outsourced human intelligence tasks. MCS requires an appropriate task assignment strategy, since different workers may have different performance in terms of acceptance rate and quality. Task assignment is challenging, since a worker's performance (i) may fluctuate, depending on both the worker's current personal context and the task context, (ii) is not known a priori, but has to be learned over time. Moreover, learning context-specific worker performance requires access to context information, which may not be available at a central entity due to communication overhead or privacy concerns. Additionally, evaluating worker performance might require costly quality assessments. In this paper, we propose a context-aware hierarchical online learning algorithm addressing the problem of performance maximization in MCS. In our algorithm, a local controller (LC) in the mobile device of a worker regularly observes the worker's context, her/his decisions to accept or decline tasks and the quality in completing tasks. Based on these observations, the LC regularly estimates the worker's context-specific performance. The mobile crowdsourcing platform (MCSP) then selects workers based on performance estimates received from the LCs. This hierarchical approach enables the LCs to learn context-specific worker performance and it enables the MCSP to select suitable workers. In addition, our algorithm preserves worker context locally, and it keeps the number of required quality assessments low. We prove that our algorithm converges to the optimal task assignment strategy. Moreover, the algorithm outperforms simpler task assignment strategies in experiments based on synthetic and real data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Risk-Stratify: Confident Stratification Of Patients Based On Risk

A clinician desires to use a risk-stratification method that achieves confident risk-stratification - the risk estimates of the different patients reflect the true risks with a high probability. This allows him/her to use these risks to make accurate predictions about prognosis and decisions about screening, treatments for the current patient. We develop Risk-stratify - a two phase algorithm that is designed to achieve confident risk-stratification. In the first phase, we grow a tree to partition the covariate space. Each node in the tree is split using statistical tests that determine if the risks of the child nodes are different or not. The choice of the statistical tests depends on whether the data is censored (Log-rank test) or not (U-test). The set of the leaves of the tree form a partition. The risk distribution of patients that belong to a leaf is different from the sibling leaf but not the rest of the leaves. Therefore, some of the leaves that have similar underlying risks are incorrectly specified to have different risks. In the second phase, we develop a novel recursive graph decomposition approach to address this problem. We merge the leaves of the tree that have similar risks to form new leaves that form the final output. We apply Risk-stratify on a cohort of patients (with no history of cardiovascular disease) from UK Biobank and assess their risk for cardiovascular disease. Risk-stratify significantly improves risk-stratification, i.e., a lower fraction of the groups have over/under estimated risks (measured in terms of false discovery rate; 33% reduction) in comparison to state-of-the-art methods for cardiovascular prediction (Random forests, Cox model, etc.). We find that the Cox model significantly over estimates the risk of 21,621 patients out of 216,211 patients. Risk-stratify can accurately categorize 2,987 of these 21,621 patients as low-risk individuals.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

MAMMO: A Deep Learning Solution for Facilitating Radiologist-Machine Collaboration in Breast Cancer Diagnosis

With an aging and growing population, the number of women requiring either screening or symptomatic mammograms is increasing. To reduce the number of mammograms that need to be read by a radiologist while keeping the diagnostic accuracy the same or better than current clinical practice, we develop Man and Machine Mammography Oracle (MAMMO) - a clinical decision support system capable of triaging mammograms into those that can be confidently classified by a machine and those that cannot be, thus requiring the reading of a radiologist. The first component of MAMMO is a novel multi-view convolutional neural network (CNN) with multi-task learning (MTL). MTL enables the CNN to learn the radiological assessments known to be associated with cancer, such as breast density, conspicuity, suspicion, etc., in addition to learning the primary task of cancer diagnosis. We show that MTL has two advantages: 1) learning refined feature representations associated with cancer improves the classification performance of the diagnosis task and 2) issuing radiological assessments provides an additional layer of model interpretability that a radiologist can use to debug and scrutinize the diagnoses provided by the CNN. The second component of MAMMO is a triage network, which takes as input the radiological assessment and diagnostic predictions of the first network's MTL outputs and determines which mammograms can be correctly and confidently diagnosed by the CNN and which mammograms cannot, thus needing to be read by a radiologist. Results obtained on a private dataset of 8,162 patients show that MAMMO reduced the number of radiologist readings by 42.8% while improving the overall diagnostic accuracy in comparison to readings done by radiologists alone. We analyze the triage of patients decided by MAMMO to gain a better understanding of what unique mammogram characteristics require radiologists' expertise.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2018

Forecasting Individualized Disease Trajectories using Interpretable Deep Learning

Disease progression models are instrumental in predicting individual-level health trajectories and understanding disease dynamics. Existing models are capable of providing either accurate predictions of patients prognoses or clinically interpretable representations of disease pathophysiology, but not both. In this paper, we develop the phased attentive state space (PASS) model of disease progression, a deep probabilistic model that captures complex representations for disease progression while maintaining clinical interpretability. Unlike Markovian state space models which assume memoryless dynamics, PASS uses an attention mechanism to induce "memoryful" state transitions, whereby repeatedly updated attention weights are used to focus on past state realizations that best predict future states. This gives rise to complex, non-stationary state dynamics that remain interpretable through the generated attention weights, which designate the relationships between the realized state variables for individual patients. PASS uses phased LSTM units (with time gates controlled by parametrized oscillations) to generate the attention weights in continuous time, which enables handling irregularly-sampled and potentially missing medical observations. Experiments on data from a realworld cohort of patients show that PASS successfully balances the tradeoff between accuracy and interpretability: it demonstrates superior predictive accuracy and learns insightful individual-level representations of disease progression.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Adaptive Clinical Trials: Exploiting Sequential Patient Recruitment and Allocation

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for comparing the effectiveness of a new treatment to the current one (the control). Most RCTs allocate the patients to the treatment group and the control group by uniform randomization. We show that this procedure can be highly sub-optimal (in terms of learning) if -- as is often the case -- patients can be recruited in cohorts (rather than all at once), the effects on each cohort can be observed before recruiting the next cohort, and the effects are heterogeneous across identifiable subgroups of patients. We formulate the patient allocation problem as a finite stage Markov Decision Process in which the objective is to minimize a given weighted combination of type-I and type-II errors. Because finding the exact solution to this Markov Decision Process is computationally intractable, we propose an algorithm -- \textit{Knowledge Gradient for Randomized Controlled Trials} (RCT-KG) -- that yields an approximate solution. We illustrate our algorithm on a synthetic dataset with Bernoulli outcomes and compare it with uniform randomization. For a given size of trial our method achieves significant reduction in error, and to achieve a prescribed level of confidence (in identifying whether the treatment is superior to the control), our method requires many fewer patients. Our approach uses what has been learned from the effects on previous cohorts to recruit patients to subgroups and allocate patients (to treatment/control) within subgroups in a way that promotes more efficient learning.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Constructing Effective Personalized Policies Using Counterfactual Inference from Biased Data Sets with Many Features

This paper proposes a novel approach for constructing effective personalized policies when the observed data lacks counter-factual information, is biased and possesses many features. The approach is applicable in a wide variety of settings from healthcare to advertising to education to finance. These settings have in common that the decision maker can observe, for each previous instance, an array of features of the instance, the action taken in that instance, and the reward realized -- but not the rewards of actions that were not taken: the counterfactual information. Learning in such settings is made even more difficult because the observed data is typically biased by the existing policy (that generated the data) and because the array of features that might affect the reward in a particular instance -- and hence should be taken into account in deciding on an action in each particular instance -- is often vast. The approach presented here estimates propensity scores for the observed data, infers counterfactuals, identifies a (relatively small) number of features that are (most) relevant for each possible action and instance, and prescribes a policy to be followed. Comparison of the proposed algorithm against the state-of-art algorithm on actual datasets demonstrates that the proposed algorithm achieves a significant improvement in performance.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Disease-Atlas: Navigating Disease Trajectories with Deep Learning

Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data are commonly used in longitudinal studies to forecast disease trajectories over time. While there are many advantages to joint modeling, the standard forms suffer from limitations that arise from a fixed model specification, and computational difficulties when applied to high-dimensional datasets. In this paper, we propose a deep learning approach to address these limitations, enhancing existing methods with the inherent flexibility and scalability of deep neural networks, while retaining the benefits of joint modeling. Using longitudinal data from a real-world medical dataset, we demonstrate improvements in performance and scalability, as well as robustness in the presence of irregularly sampled data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Forecasting Disease Trajectories in Alzheimer's Disease Using Deep Learning

Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data are commonly used in longitudinal studies to forecast disease trajectories over time. Despite the many advantages of joint modeling, the standard forms suffer from limitations that arise from a fixed model specification and computational difficulties when applied to large datasets. We adopt a deep learning approach to address these limitations, enhancing existing methods with the flexibility and scalability of deep neural networks while retaining the benefits of joint modeling. Using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Institute, we show improvements in performance and scalability compared to traditional methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Measuring the quality of Synthetic data for use in competitions

Machine learning has the potential to assist many communities in using the large datasets that are becoming more and more available. Unfortunately, much of that potential is not being realized because it would require sharing data in a way that compromises privacy. In order to overcome this hurdle, several methods have been proposed that generate synthetic data while preserving the privacy of the real data. In this paper we consider a key characteristic that synthetic data should have in order to be useful for machine learning researchers - the relative performance of two algorithms (trained and tested) on the synthetic dataset should be the same as their relative performance (when trained and tested) on the original dataset.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

RadialGAN: Leveraging multiple datasets to improve target-specific predictive models using Generative Adversarial Networks

Training complex machine learning models for prediction often requires a large amount of data that is not always readily available. Leveraging these external datasets from related but different sources is therefore an important task if good predictive models are to be built for deployment in settings where data can be rare. In this paper we propose a novel approach to the problem in which we use multiple GAN architectures to learn to translate from one dataset to another, thereby allowing us to effectively enlarge the target dataset, and therefore learn better predictive models than if we simply used the target dataset. We show the utility of such an approach, demonstrating that our method improves the prediction performance on the target domain over using just the target dataset and also show that our framework outperforms several other benchmarks on a collection of real-world medical datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

GAIN: Missing Data Imputation using Generative Adversarial Nets

We propose a novel method for imputing missing data by adapting the well-known Generative Adversarial Nets (GAN) framework. Accordingly, we call our method Generative Adversarial Imputation Nets (GAIN). The generator (G) observes some components of a real data vector, imputes the missing components conditioned on what is actually observed, and outputs a completed vector. The discriminator (D) then takes a completed vector and attempts to determine which components were actually observed and which were imputed. To ensure that D forces G to learn the desired distribution, we provide D with some additional information in the form of a hint vector. The hint reveals to D partial information about the missingness of the original sample, which is used by D to focus its attention on the imputation quality of particular components. This hint ensures that G does in fact learn to generate according to the true data distribution. We tested our method on various datasets and found that GAIN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art imputation methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Global Bandits

Multi-armed bandits (MAB) model sequential decision making problems, in which a learner sequentially chooses arms with unknown reward distributions in order to maximize its cumulative reward. Most of the prior work on MAB assumes that the reward distributions of each arm are independent. But in a wide variety of decision problems -- from drug dosage to dynamic pricing -- the expected rewards of different arms are correlated, so that selecting one arm provides information about the expected rewards of other arms as well. We propose and analyze a class of models of such decision problems, which we call {\em global bandits}. In the case in which rewards of all arms are deterministic functions of a single unknown parameter, we construct a greedy policy that achieves {\em bounded regret}, with a bound that depends on the single true parameter of the problem. Hence, this policy selects suboptimal arms only finitely many times with probability one. For this case we also obtain a bound on regret that is {\em independent of the true parameter}; this bound is sub-linear, with an exponent that depends on the informativeness of the arms. We also propose a variant of the greedy policy that achieves $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ worst-case and $\mathcal{O}(1)$ parameter dependent regret. Finally, we perform experiments on dynamic pricing and show that the proposed algorithms achieve significant gains with respect to the well-known benchmarks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Episodic Multi-armed Bandits

We introduce a new class of reinforcement learning methods referred to as {\em episodic multi-armed bandits} (eMAB). In eMAB the learner proceeds in {\em episodes}, each composed of several {\em steps}, in which it chooses an action and observes a feedback signal. Moreover, in each step, it can take a special action, called the $stop$ action, that ends the current episode. After the $stop$ action is taken, the learner collects a terminal reward, and observes the costs and terminal rewards associated with each step of the episode. The goal of the learner is to maximize its cumulative gain (i.e., the terminal reward minus costs) over all episodes by learning to choose the best sequence of actions based on the feedback. First, we define an {\em oracle} benchmark, which sequentially selects the actions that maximize the expected immediate gain. Then, we propose our online learning algorithm, named {\em FeedBack Adaptive Learning} (FeedBAL), and prove that its regret with respect to the benchmark is bounded with high probability and increases logarithmically in expectation. Moreover, the regret only has polynomial dependence on the number of steps, actions and states. eMAB can be used to model applications that involve humans in the loop, ranging from personalized medical screening to personalized web-based education, where sequences of actions are taken in each episode, and optimal behavior requires adapting the chosen actions based on the feedback.

cs.LG↗