arXiv subjects

Mihaela van der Schaar

Publications and source records attributed to Mihaela van der Schaar.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

LaTable: Towards Large Tabular Models

Tabular data is one of the most ubiquitous modalities, yet the literature on tabular generative foundation models is lagging far behind its text and vision counterparts. Creating such a model is hard, due to the heterogeneous feature spaces of different tabular datasets, tabular metadata (e.g. dataset description and feature headers), and tables lacking prior knowledge (e.g. feature order). In this work we propose LaTable: a novel tabular diffusion model that addresses these challenges and can be trained across different datasets. Through extensive experiments we find that LaTable outperforms baselines on in-distribution generation, and that finetuning LaTable can generate out-of-distribution datasets better with fewer samples. On the other hand, we explore the poor zero-shot performance of LaTable, and what it may teach us about building generative tabular foundation models with better zero- and few-shot generation capabilities.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

You can't handle the (dirty) truth: Data-centric insights improve pseudo-labeling

Pseudo-labeling is a popular semi-supervised learning technique to leverage unlabeled data when labeled samples are scarce. The generation and selection of pseudo-labels heavily rely on labeled data. Existing approaches implicitly assume that the labeled data is gold standard and 'perfect'. However, this can be violated in reality with issues such as mislabeling or ambiguity. We address this overlooked aspect and show the importance of investigating labeled data quality to improve any pseudo-labeling method. Specifically, we introduce a novel data characterization and selection framework called DIPS to extend pseudo-labeling. We select useful labeled and pseudo-labeled samples via analysis of learning dynamics. We demonstrate the applicability and impact of DIPS for various pseudo-labeling methods across an extensive range of real-world tabular and image datasets. Additionally, DIPS improves data efficiency and reduces the performance distinctions between different pseudo-labelers. Overall, we highlight the significant benefits of a data-centric rethinking of pseudo-labeling in real-world settings.

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arXiv2024

Meta-Learners for Partially-Identified Treatment Effects Across Multiple Environments

Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data is relevant for many applications such as personalized medicine. Here, we focus on the widespread setting where the observational data come from multiple environments, such as different hospitals, physicians, or countries. Furthermore, we allow for violations of standard causal assumptions, namely, overlap within the environments and unconfoundedness. To this end, we move away from point identification and focus on partial identification. Specifically, we show that current assumptions from the literature on multiple environments allow us to interpret the environment as an instrumental variable (IV). This allows us to adapt bounds from the IV literature for partial identification of CATE by leveraging treatment assignment mechanisms across environments. Then, we propose different model-agnostic learners (so-called meta-learners) to estimate the bounds that can be used in combination with arbitrary machine learning models. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of our meta-learners across various experiments using both simulated and real-world data. Finally, we discuss the applicability of our meta-learners to partial identification in instrumental variable settings, such as randomized controlled trials with non-compliance.

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arXiv2024

Why Tabular Foundation Models Should Be a Research Priority

Recent text and image foundation models are incredibly impressive, and these models are attracting an ever-increasing portion of research resources. In this position piece we aim to shift the ML research community's priorities ever so slightly to a different modality: tabular data. Tabular data is the dominant modality in many fields, yet it is given hardly any research attention and significantly lags behind in terms of scale and power. We believe the time is now to start developing tabular foundation models, or what we coin a Large Tabular Model (LTM). LTMs could revolutionise the way science and ML use tabular data: not as single datasets that are analyzed in a vacuum, but contextualized with respect to related datasets. The potential impact is far-reaching: from few-shot tabular models to automating data science; from out-of-distribution synthetic data to empowering multidisciplinary scientific discovery. We intend to excite reflections on the modalities we study, and convince some researchers to study large tabular models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

DMLR: Data-centric Machine Learning Research -- Past, Present and Future

Drawing from discussions at the inaugural DMLR workshop at ICML 2023 and meetings prior, in this report we outline the relevance of community engagement and infrastructure development for the creation of next-generation public datasets that will advance machine learning science. We chart a path forward as a collective effort to sustain the creation and maintenance of these datasets and methods towards positive scientific, societal and business impact.

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arXiv2024

Shape Arithmetic Expressions: Advancing Scientific Discovery Beyond Closed-Form Equations

Symbolic regression has excelled in uncovering equations from physics, chemistry, biology, and related disciplines. However, its effectiveness becomes less certain when applied to experimental data lacking inherent closed-form expressions. Empirically derived relationships, such as entire stress-strain curves, may defy concise closed-form representation, compelling us to explore more adaptive modeling approaches that balance flexibility with interpretability. In our pursuit, we turn to Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), a widely used class of models known for their versatility across various domains. Although GAMs can capture non-linear relationships between variables and targets, they cannot capture intricate feature interactions. In this work, we investigate both of these challenges and propose a novel class of models, Shape Arithmetic Expressions (SHAREs), that fuses GAM's flexible shape functions with the complex feature interactions found in mathematical expressions. SHAREs also provide a unifying framework for both of these approaches. We also design a set of rules for constructing SHAREs that guarantee transparency of the found expressions beyond the standard constraints based on the model's size.

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arXiv2024

A Neural Framework for Generalized Causal Sensitivity Analysis

Unobserved confounding is common in many applications, making causal inference from observational data challenging. As a remedy, causal sensitivity analysis is an important tool to draw causal conclusions under unobserved confounding with mathematical guarantees. In this paper, we propose NeuralCSA, a neural framework for generalized causal sensitivity analysis. Unlike previous work, our framework is compatible with (i) a large class of sensitivity models, including the marginal sensitivity model, f-sensitivity models, and Rosenbaum's sensitivity model; (ii) different treatment types (i.e., binary and continuous); and (iii) different causal queries, including (conditional) average treatment effects and simultaneous effects on multiple outcomes. The generality of NeuralCSA is achieved by learning a latent distribution shift that corresponds to a treatment intervention using two conditional normalizing flows. We provide theoretical guarantees that NeuralCSA is able to infer valid bounds on the causal query of interest and also demonstrate this empirically using both simulated and real-world data.

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arXiv2024

ODE Discovery for Longitudinal Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Inference

Inferring unbiased treatment effects has received widespread attention in the machine learning community. In recent years, our community has proposed numerous solutions in standard settings, high-dimensional treatment settings, and even longitudinal settings. While very diverse, the solution has mostly relied on neural networks for inference and simultaneous correction of assignment bias. New approaches typically build on top of previous approaches by proposing new (or refined) architectures and learning algorithms. However, the end result -- a neural-network-based inference machine -- remains unchallenged. In this paper, we introduce a different type of solution in the longitudinal setting: a closed-form ordinary differential equation (ODE). While we still rely on continuous optimization to learn an ODE, the resulting inference machine is no longer a neural network. Doing so yields several advantages such as interpretability, irregular sampling, and a different set of identification assumptions. Above all, we consider the introduction of a completely new type of solution to be our most important contribution as it may spark entirely new innovations in treatment effects in general. We facilitate this by formulating our contribution as a framework that can transform any ODE discovery method into a treatment effects method.

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arXiv2024

Large Language Models to Enhance Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful approach for optimizing complex and expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. Its importance is underscored in many applications, notably including hyperparameter tuning, but its efficacy depends on efficiently balancing exploration and exploitation. While there has been substantial progress in BO methods, striking this balance remains a delicate process. In this light, we present LLAMBO, a novel approach that integrates the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLM) within BO. At a high level, we frame the BO problem in natural language, enabling LLMs to iteratively propose and evaluate promising solutions conditioned on historical evaluations. More specifically, we explore how combining contextual understanding, few-shot learning proficiency, and domain knowledge of LLMs can improve model-based BO. Our findings illustrate that LLAMBO is effective at zero-shot warmstarting, and enhances surrogate modeling and candidate sampling, especially in the early stages of search when observations are sparse. Our approach is performed in context and does not require LLM finetuning. Additionally, it is modular by design, allowing individual components to be integrated into existing BO frameworks, or function cohesively as an end-to-end method. We empirically validate LLAMBO's efficacy on the problem of hyperparameter tuning, highlighting strong empirical performance across a range of diverse benchmarks, proprietary, and synthetic tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Query-Dependent Prompt Evaluation and Optimization with Offline Inverse RL

In this study, we aim to enhance the arithmetic reasoning ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) through zero-shot prompt optimization. We identify a previously overlooked objective of query dependency in such optimization and elucidate two ensuing challenges that impede the successful and economical design of prompt optimization techniques. One primary issue is the absence of an effective method to evaluate prompts during inference when the golden answer is unavailable. Concurrently, learning via interactions with the LLMs to navigate the expansive natural language prompting space proves to be resource-intensive. To address this, we introduce Prompt-OIRL, which harnesses offline inverse reinforcement learning to draw insights from offline prompting demonstration data. Such data exists as by-products when diverse prompts are benchmarked on open-accessible datasets. With Prompt-OIRL, the query-dependent prompt optimization objective is achieved by first learning an offline reward model. This model can evaluate any query-prompt pairs without accessing LLMs. Subsequently, a best-of-N strategy is deployed to recommend the optimal prompt. Our experimental evaluations across various LLM scales and arithmetic reasoning datasets underscore both the efficacy and economic viability of the proposed approach.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Dissecting Sample Hardness: A Fine-Grained Analysis of Hardness Characterization Methods for Data-Centric AI

Characterizing samples that are difficult to learn from is crucial to developing highly performant ML models. This has led to numerous Hardness Characterization Methods (HCMs) that aim to identify "hard" samples. However, there is a lack of consensus regarding the definition and evaluation of "hardness". Unfortunately, current HCMs have only been evaluated on specific types of hardness and often only qualitatively or with respect to downstream performance, overlooking the fundamental quantitative identification task. We address this gap by presenting a fine-grained taxonomy of hardness types. Additionally, we propose the Hardness Characterization Analysis Toolkit (H-CAT), which supports comprehensive and quantitative benchmarking of HCMs across the hardness taxonomy and can easily be extended to new HCMs, hardness types, and datasets. We use H-CAT to evaluate 13 different HCMs across 8 hardness types. This comprehensive evaluation encompassing over 14K setups uncovers strengths and weaknesses of different HCMs, leading to practical tips to guide HCM selection and future development. Our findings highlight the need for more comprehensive HCM evaluation, while we hope our hardness taxonomy and toolkit will advance the principled evaluation and uptake of data-centric AI methods.

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arXiv2024

Defining Expertise: Applications to Treatment Effect Estimation

Decision-makers are often experts of their domain and take actions based on their domain knowledge. Doctors, for instance, may prescribe treatments by predicting the likely outcome of each available treatment. Actions of an expert thus naturally encode part of their domain knowledge, and can help make inferences within the same domain: Knowing doctors try to prescribe the best treatment for their patients, we can tell treatments prescribed more frequently are likely to be more effective. Yet in machine learning, the fact that most decision-makers are experts is often overlooked, and "expertise" is seldom leveraged as an inductive bias. This is especially true for the literature on treatment effect estimation, where often the only assumption made about actions is that of overlap. In this paper, we argue that expertise - particularly the type of expertise the decision-makers of a domain are likely to have - can be informative in designing and selecting methods for treatment effect estimation. We formally define two types of expertise, predictive and prognostic, and demonstrate empirically that: (i) the prominent type of expertise in a domain significantly influences the performance of different methods in treatment effect estimation, and (ii) it is possible to predict the type of expertise present in a dataset, which can provide a quantitative basis for model selection.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Redefining Digital Health Interfaces with Large Language Models

Digital health tools have the potential to significantly improve the delivery of healthcare services. However, their adoption remains comparatively limited due, in part, to challenges surrounding usability and trust. Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as general-purpose models with the ability to process complex information and produce human-quality text, presenting a wealth of potential applications in healthcare. Directly applying LLMs in clinical settings is not straightforward, however, with LLMs susceptible to providing inconsistent or nonsensical answers. We demonstrate how LLM-based systems can utilize external tools and provide a novel interface between clinicians and digital technologies. This enhances the utility and practical impact of digital healthcare tools and AI models while addressing current issues with using LLMs in clinical settings such as hallucinations. We illustrate LLM-based interfaces with the example of cardiovascular disease risk prediction. We develop a new prognostic tool using automated machine learning and demonstrate how LLMs can provide a unique interface to both our model and existing risk scores, highlighting the benefit compared to traditional interfaces for digital tools.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

DAGnosis: Localized Identification of Data Inconsistencies using Structures

Identification and appropriate handling of inconsistencies in data at deployment time is crucial to reliably use machine learning models. While recent data-centric methods are able to identify such inconsistencies with respect to the training set, they suffer from two key limitations: (1) suboptimality in settings where features exhibit statistical independencies, due to their usage of compressive representations and (2) lack of localization to pin-point why a sample might be flagged as inconsistent, which is important to guide future data collection. We solve these two fundamental limitations using directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to encode the training set's features probability distribution and independencies as a structure. Our method, called DAGnosis, leverages these structural interactions to bring valuable and insightful data-centric conclusions. DAGnosis unlocks the localization of the causes of inconsistencies on a DAG, an aspect overlooked by previous approaches. Moreover, we show empirically that leveraging these interactions (1) leads to more accurate conclusions in detecting inconsistencies, as well as (2) provides more detailed insights into why some samples are flagged.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Causal Deep Learning

Causality has the potential to truly transform the way we solve a large number of real-world problems. Yet, so far, its potential largely remains to be unlocked as causality often requires crucial assumptions which cannot be tested in practice. To address this challenge, we propose a new way of thinking about causality -- we call this causal deep learning. Our causal deep learning framework spans three dimensions: (1) a structural dimension, which incorporates partial yet testable causal knowledge rather than assuming either complete or no causal knowledge among the variables of interest; (2) a parametric dimension, which encompasses parametric forms that capture the type of relationships among the variables of interest; and (3) a temporal dimension, which captures exposure times or how the variables of interest interact (possibly causally) over time. Causal deep learning enables us to make progress on a variety of real-world problems by leveraging partial causal knowledge (including independencies among variables) and quantitatively characterising causal relationships among variables of interest (possibly over time). Our framework clearly identifies which assumptions are testable and which ones are not, such that the resulting solutions can be judiciously adopted in practice. Using our formulation we can combine or chain together causal representations to solve specific problems without losing track of which assumptions are required to build these solutions, pushing real-world impact in healthcare, economics and business, environmental sciences and education, through causal deep learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Adaptive Experiment Design with Synthetic Controls

Clinical trials are typically run in order to understand the effects of a new treatment on a given population of patients. However, patients in large populations rarely respond the same way to the same treatment. This heterogeneity in patient responses necessitates trials that investigate effects on multiple subpopulations - especially when a treatment has marginal or no benefit for the overall population but might have significant benefit for a particular subpopulation. Motivated by this need, we propose Syntax, an exploratory trial design that identifies subpopulations with positive treatment effect among many subpopulations. Syntax is sample efficient as it (i) recruits and allocates patients adaptively and (ii) estimates treatment effects by forming synthetic controls for each subpopulation that combines control samples from other subpopulations. We validate the performance of Syntax and provide insights into when it might have an advantage over conventional trial designs through experiments.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Time Series Diffusion in the Frequency Domain

Fourier analysis has been an instrumental tool in the development of signal processing. This leads us to wonder whether this framework could similarly benefit generative modelling. In this paper, we explore this question through the scope of time series diffusion models. More specifically, we analyze whether representing time series in the frequency domain is a useful inductive bias for score-based diffusion models. By starting from the canonical SDE formulation of diffusion in the time domain, we show that a dual diffusion process occurs in the frequency domain with an important nuance: Brownian motions are replaced by what we call mirrored Brownian motions, characterized by mirror symmetries among their components. Building on this insight, we show how to adapt the denoising score matching approach to implement diffusion models in the frequency domain. This results in frequency diffusion models, which we compare to canonical time diffusion models. Our empirical evaluation on real-world datasets, covering various domains like healthcare and finance, shows that frequency diffusion models better capture the training distribution than time diffusion models. We explain this observation by showing that time series from these datasets tend to be more localized in the frequency domain than in the time domain, which makes them easier to model in the former case. All our observations point towards impactful synergies between Fourier analysis and diffusion models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Machine Learning with Requirements: a Manifesto

In the recent years, machine learning has made great advancements that have been at the root of many breakthroughs in different application domains. However, it is still an open issue how make them applicable to high-stakes or safety-critical application domains, as they can often be brittle and unreliable. In this paper, we argue that requirements definition and satisfaction can go a long way to make machine learning models even more fitting to the real world, especially in critical domains. To this end, we present two problems in which (i) requirements arise naturally, (ii) machine learning models are or can be fruitfully deployed, and (iii) neglecting the requirements can have dramatic consequences. We show how the requirements specification can be fruitfully integrated into the standard machine learning development pipeline, proposing a novel pyramid development process in which requirements definition may impact all the subsequent phases in the pipeline, and viceversa.

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