arXiv subjects

Mihai Cucuringu

Publications and source records attributed to Mihai Cucuringu.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

A Universal End-to-End Approach to Portfolio Optimization via Deep Learning

We propose a universal end-to-end framework for portfolio optimization where asset distributions are directly obtained. The designed framework circumvents the traditional forecasting step and avoids the estimation of the covariance matrix, lifting the bottleneck for generalizing to a large amount of instruments. Our framework has the flexibility of optimizing various objective functions including Sharpe ratio, mean-variance trade-off etc. Further, we allow for short selling and study several constraints attached to objective functions. In particular, we consider cardinality, maximum position for individual instrument and leverage. These constraints are formulated into objective functions by utilizing several neural layers and gradient ascent can be adopted for optimization. To ensure the robustness of our framework, we test our methods on two datasets. Firstly, we look at a synthetic dataset where we demonstrate that weights obtained from our end-to-end approach are better than classical predictive methods. Secondly, we apply our framework on a real-life dataset with historical observations of hundreds of instruments with a testing period of more than 20 years.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2021

Equity2Vec: End-to-end Deep Learning Framework for Cross-sectional Asset Pricing

Pricing assets has attracted significant attention from the financial technology community. We observe that the existing solutions overlook the cross-sectional effects and not fully leveraged the heterogeneous data sets, leading to sub-optimal performance. To this end, we propose an end-to-end deep learning framework to price the assets. Our framework possesses two main properties: 1) We propose Equity2Vec, a graph-based component that effectively captures both long-term and evolving cross-sectional interactions. 2) The framework simultaneously leverages all the available heterogeneous alpha sources including technical indicators, financial news signals, and cross-sectional signals. Experimental results on datasets from the real-world stock market show that our approach outperforms the existing state-of-the-art approaches. Furthermore, market trading simulations demonstrate that our framework monetizes the signals effectively.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

DUKweb: Diachronic word representations from the UK Web Archive corpus

Lexical semantic change (detecting shifts in the meaning and usage of words) is an important task for social and cultural studies as well as for Natural Language Processing applications. Diachronic word embeddings (time-sensitive vector representations of words that preserve their meaning) have become the standard resource for this task. However, given the significant computational resources needed for their generation, very few resources exist that make diachronic word embeddings available to the scientific community. In this paper we present DUKweb, a set of large-scale resources designed for the diachronic analysis of contemporary English. DUKweb was created from the JISC UK Web Domain Dataset (1996-2013), a very large archive which collects resources from the Internet Archive that were hosted on domains ending in `.uk'. DUKweb consists of a series word co-occurrence matrices and two types of word embeddings for each year in the JISC UK Web Domain dataset. We show the reuse potential of DUKweb and its quality standards via a case study on word meaning change detection.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

Fragmentation, Price Formation, and Cross-Impact in Bitcoin Markets

In light of micro-scale inefficiencies induced by the high degree of fragmentation of the Bitcoin trading landscape, we utilize a granular data set comprised of orderbook and trades data from the most liquid Bitcoin markets, in order to understand the price formation process at sub-1 second time scales. To achieve this goal, we construct a set of features that encapsulate relevant microstructural information over short lookback windows. These features are subsequently leveraged first to generate a leader-lagger network that quantifies how markets impact one another, and then to train linear models capable of explaining between 10% and 37% of total variation in $500$ms future returns (depending on which market is the prediction target). The results are then compared with those of various PnL calculations that take trading realities, such as transaction costs, into account. The PnL calculations are based on natural $\textit{taker}$ strategies (meaning they employ market orders) that we associate to each model. Our findings emphasize the role of a market's fee regime in determining its propensity to being a leader or a lagger, as well as the profitability of our taker strategy. Taking our analysis further, we also derive a natural $\textit{maker}$ strategy (i.e., one that uses only passive limit orders), which, due to the difficulties associated with backtesting maker strategies, we test in a real-world live trading experiment, in which we turned over 1.5 million USD in notional volume. Lending additional confidence to our models, and by extension to the features they are based on, the results indicate a significant improvement over a naive benchmark strategy, which we also deploy in a live trading environment with real capital, for the sake of comparison.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2021

Local2Global: Scaling global representation learning on graphs via local training

We propose a decentralised "local2global" approach to graph representation learning, that one can a-priori use to scale any embedding technique. Our local2global approach proceeds by first dividing the input graph into overlapping subgraphs (or "patches") and training local representations for each patch independently. In a second step, we combine the local representations into a globally consistent representation by estimating the set of rigid motions that best align the local representations using information from the patch overlaps, via group synchronization. A key distinguishing feature of local2global relative to existing work is that patches are trained independently without the need for the often costly parameter synchronisation during distributed training. This allows local2global to scale to large-scale industrial applications, where the input graph may not even fit into memory and may be stored in a distributed manner. Preliminary results on medium-scale data sets (up to $\sim$7K nodes and $\sim$200K edges) are promising, with a graph reconstruction performance for local2global that is comparable to that of globally trained embeddings. A thorough evaluation of local2global on large scale data and applications to downstream tasks, such as node classification and link prediction, constitutes ongoing work.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

An extension of the angular synchronization problem to the heterogeneous setting

Given an undirected measurement graph $G = ([n], E)$, the classical angular synchronization problem consists of recovering unknown angles $θ_1,\dots,θ_n$ from a collection of noisy pairwise measurements of the form $(θ_i - θ_j) \mod 2π$, for each $\{i,j\} \in E$. This problem arises in a variety of applications, including computer vision, time synchronization of distributed networks, and ranking from preference relationships. In this paper, we consider a generalization to the setting where there exist $k$ unknown groups of angles $θ_{l,1}, \dots,θ_{l,n}$, for $l=1,\dots,k$. For each $ \{i,j\} \in E$, we are given noisy pairwise measurements of the form $θ_{\ell,i} - θ_{\ell,j}$ for an unknown $\ell \in \{1,2,\ldots,k\}$. This can be thought of as a natural extension of the angular synchronization problem to the heterogeneous setting of multiple groups of angles, where the measurement graph has an unknown edge-disjoint decomposition $G = G_1 \cup G_2 \ldots \cup G_k$, where the $G_i$'s denote the subgraphs of edges corresponding to each group. We propose a probabilistic generative model for this problem, along with a spectral algorithm for which we provide a detailed theoretical analysis in terms of robustness against both sampling sparsity and noise. The theoretical findings are complemented by a comprehensive set of numerical experiments, showcasing the efficacy of our algorithm under various parameter regimes. Finally, we consider an application of bi-synchronization to the graph realization problem, and provide along the way an iterative graph disentangling procedure that uncovers the subgraphs $G_i$, $i=1,\ldots,k$ which is of independent interest, as it is shown to improve the final recovery accuracy across all the experiments considered.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Regularized spectral methods for clustering signed networks

We study the problem of $k$-way clustering in signed graphs. Considerable attention in recent years has been devoted to analyzing and modeling signed graphs, where the affinity measure between nodes takes either positive or negative values. Recently, Cucuringu et al. [CDGT 2019] proposed a spectral method, namely SPONGE (Signed Positive over Negative Generalized Eigenproblem), which casts the clustering task as a generalized eigenvalue problem optimizing a suitably defined objective function. This approach is motivated by social balance theory, where the clustering task aims to decompose a given network into disjoint groups, such that individuals within the same group are connected by as many positive edges as possible, while individuals from different groups are mainly connected by negative edges. Through extensive numerical simulations, SPONGE was shown to achieve state-of-the-art empirical performance. On the theoretical front, [CDGT 2019] analyzed SPONGE and the popular Signed Laplacian method under the setting of a Signed Stochastic Block Model (SSBM), for $k=2$ equal-sized clusters, in the regime where the graph is moderately dense. In this work, we build on the results in [CDGT 2019] on two fronts for the normalized versions of SPONGE and the Signed Laplacian. Firstly, for both algorithms, we extend the theoretical analysis in [CDGT 2019] to the general setting of $k \geq 2$ unequal-sized clusters in the moderately dense regime. Secondly, we introduce regularized versions of both methods to handle sparse graphs -- a regime where standard spectral methods underperform -- and provide theoretical guarantees under the same SSBM model. To the best of our knowledge, regularized spectral methods have so far not been considered in the setting of clustering signed graphs. We complement our theoretical results with an extensive set of numerical experiments on synthetic data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

A Linear Transportation $\mathrm{L}^p$ Distance for Pattern Recognition

The transportation $\mathrm{L}^p$ distance, denoted $\mathrm{TL}^p$, has been proposed as a generalisation of Wasserstein $\mathrm{W}^p$ distances motivated by the property that it can be applied directly to colour or multi-channelled images, as well as multivariate time-series without normalisation or mass constraints. These distances, as with $\mathrm{W}^p$, are powerful tools in modelling data with spatial or temporal perturbations. However, their computational cost can make them infeasible to apply to even moderate pattern recognition tasks. We propose linear versions of these distances and show that the linear $\mathrm{TL}^p$ distance significantly improves over the linear $\mathrm{W}^p$ distance on signal processing tasks, whilst being several orders of magnitude faster to compute than the $\mathrm{TL}^p$ distance.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2020

Motif-Based Spectral Clustering of Weighted Directed Networks

Clustering is an essential technique for network analysis, with applications in a diverse range of fields. Although spectral clustering is a popular and effective method, it fails to consider higher-order structure and can perform poorly on directed networks. One approach is to capture and cluster higher-order structures using motif adjacency matrices. However, current formulations fail to take edge weights into account, and thus are somewhat limited when weight is a key component of the network under study. We address these shortcomings by exploring motif-based weighted spectral clustering methods. We present new and computationally useful matrix formulae for motif adjacency matrices on weighted networks, which can be used to construct efficient algorithms for any anchored or non-anchored motif on three nodes. In a very sparse regime, our proposed method can handle graphs with a million nodes and tens of millions of edges. We further use our framework to construct a motif-based approach for clustering bipartite networks. We provide comprehensive experimental results, demonstrating (i) the scalability of our approach, (ii) advantages of higher-order clustering on synthetic examples, and (iii) the effectiveness of our techniques on a variety of real world data sets; and compare against several techniques from the literature. We conclude that motif-based spectral clustering is a valuable tool for analysis of directed and bipartite weighted networks, which is also scalable and easy to implement.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Ranking and synchronization from pairwise measurements via SVD

Given a measurement graph $G= (V,E)$ and an unknown signal $r \in \mathbb{R}^n$, we investigate algorithms for recovering $r$ from pairwise measurements of the form $r_i - r_j$; $\{i,j\} \in E$. This problem arises in a variety of applications, such as ranking teams in sports data and time synchronization of distributed networks. Framed in the context of ranking, the task is to recover the ranking of $n$ teams (induced by $r$) given a small subset of noisy pairwise rank offsets. We propose a simple SVD-based algorithmic pipeline for both the problem of time synchronization and ranking. We provide a detailed theoretical analysis in terms of robustness against both sampling sparsity and noise perturbations with outliers, using results from matrix perturbation and random matrix theory. Our theoretical findings are complemented by a detailed set of numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data, showcasing the competitiveness of our proposed algorithms with other state-of-the-art methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Learning with Semi-Definite Programming: new statistical bounds based on fixed point analysis and excess risk curvature

Many statistical learning problems have recently been shown to be amenable to Semi-Definite Programming (SDP), with community detection and clustering in Gaussian mixture models as the most striking instances [javanmard et al., 2016]. Given the growing range of applications of SDP-based techniques to machine learning problems, and the rapid progress in the design of efficient algorithms for solving SDPs, an intriguing question is to understand how the recent advances from empirical process theory can be put to work in order to provide a precise statistical analysis of SDP estimators. In the present paper, we borrow cutting edge techniques and concepts from the learning theory literature, such as fixed point equations and excess risk curvature arguments, which yield general estimation and prediction results for a wide class of SDP estimators. From this perspective, we revisit some classical results in community detection from [guédon et al.,2016] and [chen et al., 2016], and we obtain statistical guarantees for SDP estimators used in signed clustering, group synchronization and MAXCUT.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Core-Periphery Structure in Directed Networks

While studies of meso-scale structures in networks often focus on community structure, core--periphery structures can reveal new insights. This structure typically consists of a well-connected core and a periphery that is well connected to the core but sparsely connected internally. Most studies of core--periphery structure focus on undirected networks. We propose a generalisation of core-periphery structure to directed networks. Our approach yields a family of core-periphery block model formulations in which core and periphery sets are edge-direction dependent. We mainly focus on a particular core--periphery structure consisting of two core sets and two periphery sets which we motivate empirically. To detect this directed core-periphery structure we propose four different methods, with different trade-offs between computational complexity and accuracy. We assess these methods on three benchmarks and compare to four standard methods. On simulated data, the proposed methods match or outperform the standard methods. Applying our methods to three empirical networks -- a political blogs networks, a faculty hiring network, and a trade network -- illustrates that this directed core--periphery structure can offer novel insights about the underlying dataset.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Provably robust estimation of modulo 1 samples of a smooth function with applications to phase unwrapping

Consider an unknown smooth function $f: [0,1]^d \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$, and say we are given $n$ noisy mod 1 samples of $f$, i.e., $y_i = (f(x_i) + η_i)\mod 1$, for $x_i \in [0,1]^d$, where $η_i$ denotes the noise. Given the samples $(x_i,y_i)_{i=1}^{n}$, our goal is to recover smooth, robust estimates of the clean samples $f(x_i) \bmod 1$. We formulate a natural approach for solving this problem, which works with angular embeddings of the noisy mod 1 samples over the unit circle, inspired by the angular synchronization framework. This amounts to solving a smoothness regularized least-squares problem -- a quadratically constrained quadratic program (QCQP) -- where the variables are constrained to lie on the unit circle. Our approach is based on solving its relaxation, which is a trust-region sub-problem and hence solvable efficiently. We provide theoretical guarantees demonstrating its robustness to noise for adversarial, and random Gaussian and Bernoulli noise models. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first such theoretical results for this problem. We demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of our approach via extensive numerical simulations on synthetic data, along with a simple least-squares solution for the unwrapping stage, that recovers the original samples of $f$ (up to a global shift). It is shown to perform well at high levels of noise, when taking as input the denoised modulo $1$ samples. Finally, we also consider two other approaches for denoising the modulo 1 samples that leverage tools from Riemannian optimization on manifolds, including a Burer-Monteiro approach for a semidefinite programming relaxation of our formulation. For the two-dimensional version of the problem, which has applications in radar interferometry, we are able to solve instances of real-world data with a million sample points in under 10 seconds, on a personal laptop.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

An MBO scheme for clustering and semi-supervised clustering of signed networks

We introduce a principled method for the signed clustering problem, where the goal is to partition a graph whose edge weights take both positive and negative values, such that edges within the same cluster are mostly positive, while edges spanning across clusters are mostly negative. Our method relies on a graph-based diffuse interface model formulation utilizing the Ginzburg-Landau functional, based on an adaptation of the classic numerical Merriman-Bence-Osher (MBO) scheme for minimizing such graph-based functionals. The proposed objective function aims to minimize the total weight of inter-cluster positively-weighted edges, while maximizing the total weight of the inter-cluster negatively-weighted edges. Our method scales to large sparse networks, and can be easily adjusted to incorporate labelled data information, as is often the case in the context of semi-supervised learning. We tested our method on a number of both synthetic stochastic block models and real-world data sets (including financial correlation matrices), and obtained promising results that compare favourably against a number of state-of-the-art approaches from the recent literature.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Hermitian matrices for clustering directed graphs: insights and applications

Graph clustering is a basic technique in machine learning, and has widespread applications in different domains. While spectral techniques have been successfully applied for clustering undirected graphs, the performance of spectral clustering algorithms for directed graphs (digraphs) is not in general satisfactory: these algorithms usually require symmetrising the matrix representing a digraph, and typical objective functions for undirected graph clustering do not capture cluster-structures in which the information given by the direction of the edges is crucial. To overcome these downsides, we propose a spectral clustering algorithm based on a complex-valued matrix representation of digraphs. We analyse its theoretical performance on a Stochastic Block Model for digraphs in which the cluster-structure is given not only by variations in edge densities, but also by the direction of the edges. The significance of our work is highlighted on a data set pertaining to internal migration in the United States: while previous spectral clustering algorithms for digraphs can only reveal that people are more likely to move between counties that are geographically close, our approach is able to cluster together counties with a similar socio-economical profile even when they are geographically distant, and illustrates how people tend to move from rural to more urbanised areas.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Anomaly Detection in Networks with Application to Financial Transaction Networks

This paper is motivated by the task of detecting anomalies in networks of financial transactions, with accounts as nodes and a directed weighted edge between two nodes denoting a money transfer. The weight of the edge is the transaction amount. Examples of anomalies in networks include long paths of large transaction amounts, rings of large payments, and cliques of accounts. There are many methods available which detect such specific structures in networks. Here we introduce a method which is able to detect previously unspecified anomalies in networks. The method is based on a combination of features from network comparison and spectral analysis as well as local statistics, yielding 140 main features. We then use a simple feature sum method, as well as a random forest method, in order to classify nodes as normal or anomalous. We test the method first on synthetic networks which we generated, and second on a set of synthetic networks which were generated without the methods team having access to the ground truth. The first set of synthetic networks was split in a training set of 70 percent of the networks, and a test set of 30 percent of the networks. The resulting classifier was then applied to the second set of synthetic networks. We compare our method with Oddball, a widely used method for anomaly detection in networks, as well as to random classification. While Oddball outperforms random classification, both our feature sum method and our random forest method outperform Oddball. On the test set, the random forest outperforms feature sum, whereas on the second synthetic data set, initially feature sum tends to pick up more anomalies than random forest, with this behaviour reversing for lower-scoring anomalies. In all cases, the top 2 percent of flagged anomalies contained on average over 90 percent of the planted anomalies.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2019

SPONGE: A generalized eigenproblem for clustering signed networks

We introduce a principled and theoretically sound spectral method for $k$-way clustering in signed graphs, where the affinity measure between nodes takes either positive or negative values. Our approach is motivated by social balance theory, where the task of clustering aims to decompose the network into disjoint groups, such that individuals within the same group are connected by as many positive edges as possible, while individuals from different groups are connected by as many negative edges as possible. Our algorithm relies on a generalized eigenproblem formulation inspired by recent work on constrained clustering. We provide theoretical guarantees for our approach in the setting of a signed stochastic block model, by leveraging tools from matrix perturbation theory and random matrix theory. An extensive set of numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data shows that our approach compares favorably with state-of-the-art methods for signed clustering, especially for large number of clusters and sparse measurement graphs.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Modeling outcomes of soccer matches

We compare various extensions of the Bradley-Terry model and a hierarchical Poisson log-linear model in terms of their performance in predicting the outcome of soccer matches (win, draw, or loss). The parameters of the Bradley-Terry extensions are estimated by maximizing the log-likelihood, or an appropriately penalized version of it, while the posterior densities of the parameters of the hierarchical Poisson log-linear model are approximated using integrated nested Laplace approximations. The prediction performance of the various modeling approaches is assessed using a novel, context-specific framework for temporal validation that is found to deliver accurate estimates of the test error. The direct modeling of outcomes via the various Bradley-Terry extensions and the modeling of match scores using the hierarchical Poisson log-linear model demonstrate similar behavior in terms of predictive performance.

stat.AP↗