arXiv subjects

Mihir Parmar

Publications and source records attributed to Mihir Parmar.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Indi-RomCoM: Code-Mixed Benchmark for Evaluating LLMs on Romanized Indic-English Instructions

Romanized Code Mixing (RCM), where bilingual speakers fluidly blend local languages with English in Roman script, has emerged as the dominant form of communication across multilingual communities. While Large Language Models (LLMs) perform strongly on monolingual and native-script benchmarks, their ability to follow instructions and reason over RCM-based content remains largely unexplored. To this end, we introduce the Indi-RomCoM benchmark for facilitating systematic evaluation on Indic Romanized Code-Mixed instructions. Our benchmark spans seven instruction-following tasks, four widely spoken Indic languages, and three controlled code-mixing intensity levels. We extensively evaluate a suite of LLMs covering proprietary, open-weight, and Indic-focused models under zero- and few-shot settings. LLMs consistently underperform on RCM instructions, with performance degrading as code-mixing density increases. Furthermore, reasoning tasks suffer less degradation than detection tasks (e.g., Toxicity) because the generated explanations offer necessary context. We believe Indi-RomCoM helps the community in developing inclusive multilingual systems.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

ScientistOne: Towards Human-Level Autonomous Research via Chain-of-Evidence

Autonomous research agents produce competitive solutions and professional-looking manuscripts, yet their outputs contain verifiability failures undetectable by surface-level evaluation: fabricated citations, unreproducible scores, and method descriptions that diverge from the implementation. We address this through three contributions. First, Chain-of-Evidence (CoE), a verifiability framework requiring every claim to be traceable to its evidence source. Second, ScientistOne, an end-to-end autonomous research system that maintains evidence chains by construction throughout literature review, solution discovery, and paper writing. Third, CoE Audit, a post-hoc audit whose four integrity checks -- score verification, specification violation, reference verification, and method-code alignment -- apply uniformly to all systems. Across 75 papers spanning five systems and five frontier research tasks, every baseline exhibits at least one systematic failure mode: hallucinated reference rates reach 21%, score verification passes in as few as 42% of papers, and method-code alignment ranges from 20% to 80%. ScientistOne achieves zero hallucinated references (0/337), perfect score verification (12/12), and the highest method-code alignment (14/15), while matching or exceeding human expert performance on all five tasks. ScientistOne further generalizes to six additional tasks spanning medical imaging, fine-grained recognition, 3D perception, and language modeling, achieving state-of-the-art on Parameter Golf and gold medals on MLE-Bench tasks where baselines fail entirely.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Nexus : An Agentic Framework for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is not just numerical extrapolation, but often requires reasoning with unstructured contextual data such as news or events. While specialized Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at forecasting based on numerical patterns, they remain unaware to real-world textual signals. Conversely, while LLMs are emerging as zero-shot forecasters, their performance remains uneven across domains and contextual grounding. To bridge this gap, we introduce Nexus, a multi-agent forecasting framework that decomposes prediction into specialized stages: isolating macro-level and micro-level temporal fluctuations, and integrating contextual information when available before synthesizing a final forecast. This decomposition enables Nexus to adapt from seasonal signals to volatile, event-driven information without relying on external statistical anchors or monolithic prompting. We show that current-generation LLMs possess substantially stronger intrinsic forecasting ability than previously recognized, depending critically on how numerical and contextual reasoning are organized. Evaluated on data strictly succeeding LLM knowledge cutoffs spanning Zillow real estate metrics and volatile stock market equities, Nexus consistently matches or outperforms state-of-the-art TSFMs and strong LLM baselines. Beyond numerical accuracy, Nexus produces high-quality reasoning traces that explicitly show the fundamental drivers behind each forecast. Our results establish that real-world forecasting is an agentic reasoning problem extending well beyond only sequence modeling.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

LiSA: Lifelong Safety Adaptation via Conservative Policy Induction

As AI agents move from chat interfaces to systems that read private data, call tools, and execute multi-step workflows, guardrails become a last line of defense against concrete deployment harms. In these settings, guardrail failures are no longer merely answer-quality errors: they can leak secrets, authorize unsafe actions, or block legitimate work. The hardest failures are often contextual: whether an action is acceptable depends on local privacy norms, organizational policies, and user expectations that resist pre-deployment specification. This creates a practical gap: guardrails must adapt to their own operating environments, yet deployment feedback is typically limited to sparse, noisy user-reported failures, and repeated fine-tuning is often impractical. To address this gap, we propose LiSA (Lifelong Safety Adaptation), a conservative policy induction framework that improves a fixed base guardrail through structured memory. LiSA converts occasional failures into reusable policy abstractions so that sparse reports can generalize beyond individual cases, adds conflict-aware local rules to prevent overgeneralization in mixed-label contexts, and applies evidence-aware confidence gating via a posterior lower bound, so that memory reuse scales with accumulated evidence rather than empirical accuracy alone. Across PrivacyLens+, ConFaide+, and AgentHarm, LiSA consistently outperforms strong memory-based baselines under sparse feedback, remains robust under noisy user feedback even at 20% label-flip rates, and pushes the latency--performance frontier beyond backbone model scaling. Ultimately, LiSA offers a practical path to secure AI agents against the unpredictable long tail of real-world edge risks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Reasoning-Aware Training for Time Series Forecasting

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at numerical forecasting but operate as black boxes lacking qualitative reasoning. Conversely, applying LLMs directly to temporal data introduces a modality gap: text tokenizers fragment continuous numerical values, degrading mathematical relationships and exploding sequence lengths, leading to computational overhead. To resolve this, we introduce STRIDE (Strategic Time-series Reasoning Injected via Distilled Embeddings), a novel framework natively integrating LLM reasoning into the continuous embedding space of TSFMs. Instead of discrete tokens, STRIDE distills reasoning traces into a lightweight LLM, dynamically projecting its mean-pooled hidden states as a cross-modal prior into the target numerical encoder. The architecture is jointly optimized using cross-entropy and quantile losses. Evaluations demonstrate STRIDE establishes state-of-the-art numerical forecasting on GIFT-Eval (0.674 MASE, 0.454 CRPS) compared to TSFMs and exhibits superior in-domain and out-of-domain numerical as well as reasoning performance on TFRBench. Specifically, STRIDE acts as a plug-and-play enhancement, consistently improving diverse TSFMs (e.g., Chronos-2, Timer-S1) across various LLM configurations. Thus, injecting semantic reasoning as a continuous prior equips TSFMs with human-interpretable reasoning while fundamentally improving predictive accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

LEAF: A Living Benchmark for Event-Augmented Forecasting

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to forecasting. To evaluate this capability while mitigating pre-training data contamination, several living benchmarks have been proposed. However, existing benchmarks either lack the multidimensional events essential for accurate forecasting due to data scarcity, or focus on relatively closed environments. To assess the predictive capabilities of LLMs in complex, real-world scenarios, we propose LEAF, the first living benchmark for event-augmented forecasting tasks, including future event probabilities, trend and time series forecasting. LEAF utilizes a recursive retrieval agent system paired with dual-agent cross-validation to provide comprehensive and relevant auxiliary text for forecasting. Evaluating state-of-the-art proprietary and open-weight LLMs, we find that these models can leverage signals extracted from complex events to enhance predictive performance. In the stock domain, we find that LLMs achieve better performance on equities they confidently identify as more predictable. Furthermore, the events demonstrate a strong correlation with the target equities. To this end, LEAF provides a necessary, dynamically updating testbed to continuously track and drive progress in event-driven forecasting tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Mid-Training with Self-Generated Data Improves Reinforcement Learning in Language Models

The effectiveness of Reinforcement Learning (RL) in Large Language Models (LLMs) depends on the nature and diversity of the data used before and during RL. In particular, reasoning problems can often be approached in multiple ways that rely on different forms of reasoning, and exposure to only a limited range of such approaches in the training data may limit the effectiveness of RL. Motivated by this, we investigate using diverse self-generated data during mid-training as an intermediate step before RL training. Specifically, we adopt a bootstrapped data-generation framework guided by George Polya's problem-solving approaches for generating multiple variants of correct answers for each question in the training data, and then perform fine-tuning. We first provide a theoretical perspective on how mid-training on such data improves RL and explain how policy-gradient updates can incentivize combining multiple approaches. We then empirically demonstrate that RL-trained models initialized with our mid-training data achieve consistent improvements across various mathematical reasoning benchmarks and other OOD tasks like code generation and narrative reasoning. Overall, our investigative study shows that a language model learning multiple problem-solving approaches, through self-generated data helps subsequent RL.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

CoAct: Co-Active LLM Preference Learning with Human-AI Synergy

Learning from preference-based feedback has become an effective approach for aligning LLMs across diverse tasks. However, high-quality human-annotated preference data remains expensive and scarce. Existing methods address this challenge through either self-rewarding, which scales by using purely AI-generated labels but risks unreliability, or active learning, which ensures quality through oracle annotation but cannot fully leverage unlabeled data. In this paper, we present CoAct, a novel framework that synergistically combines self-rewarding and active learning through strategic human-AI collaboration. CoAct leverages self-consistency to identify both reliable self-labeled data and samples that require oracle verification. Additionally, oracle feedback guides the model to generate new instructions within its solvable capability. Evaluated on three reasoning benchmarks across two model families, CoAct achieves average improvements of +13.25% on GSM8K, +8.19% on MATH, and +13.16% on WebInstruct, consistently outperforming all baselines.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

CANVAS: Continuity-Aware Narratives via Visual Agentic Storyboarding

Long-form visual storytelling requires maintaining continuity across shots, including consistent characters, stable environments, and smooth scene transitions. While existing generative models can produce strong individual frames, they fail to preserve such continuity, leading to appearance changes, inconsistent backgrounds, and abrupt scene shifts. We introduce CANVAS (Continuity-Aware Narratives via Visual Agentic Storyboarding), a multi-agent framework that explicitly plans visual continuity in multi-shot narratives. CANVAS enforces coherence through character continuity, persistent background anchors, and location-aware scene planning for smooth transitions within the same setting We evaluate CANVAS on two storyboard generation benchmarks ST-BENCH and ViStoryBench and introduce a new challenging benchmark HardContinuityBench for long-range narrative consistency. CANVAS consistently outperforms the best-performing baseline, improving background continuity by 21.6%, character consistency by 9.6% and props consistency by 7.6%.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

TFRBench: A Reasoning Benchmark for Evaluating Forecasting Systems

We introduce TFRBench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate the reasoning capabilities of forecasting systems. Traditionally, time-series forecasting has been evaluated solely on numerical accuracy, treating foundation models as ``black boxes.'' Unlike existing benchmarks, TFRBench provides a protocol for evaluating the reasoning generated by forecasting systems--specifically their analysis of cross-channel dependencies, trends, and external events. To enable this, we propose a systematic multi-agent framework that utilizes an iterative verification loop to synthesize numerically grounded reasoning traces. Spanning ten datasets across five domains, our evaluation confirms that this reasoning is causally effective; useful for evaluation; and prompting LLMs with our generated traces significantly improves forecasting accuracy compared to direct numerical prediction (e.g., avg. $\sim40.2\%\to56.6\%)$, validating the quality of our reasoning. Conversely, benchmarking experiments reveal that off-the-shelf LLMs consistently struggle with both reasoning (lower LLM-as-a-Judge scores) and numerical forecasting, frequently failing to capture domain-specific dynamics. TFRBench thus establishes a new standard for interpretable, reasoning-based evaluation in time-series forecasting. Our benchmark is available at: https://tfrbench.github.io

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

CausalArmor: Efficient Indirect Prompt Injection Guardrails via Causal Attribution

AI agents equipped with tool-calling capabilities are susceptible to Indirect Prompt Injection (IPI) attacks. In this attack scenario, malicious commands hidden within untrusted content trick the agent into performing unauthorized actions. Existing defenses can reduce attack success but often suffer from the over-defense dilemma: they deploy expensive, always-on sanitization regardless of actual threat, thereby degrading utility and latency even in benign scenarios. We revisit IPI through a causal ablation perspective: a successful injection manifests as a dominance shift where the user request no longer provides decisive support for the agent's privileged action, while a particular untrusted segment, such as a retrieved document or tool output, provides disproportionate attributable influence. Based on this signature, we propose CausalArmor, a selective defense framework that (i) computes lightweight, leave-one-out ablation-based attributions at privileged decision points, and (ii) triggers targeted sanitization only when an untrusted segment dominates the user intent. Additionally, CausalArmor employs retroactive Chain-of-Thought masking to prevent the agent from acting on ``poisoned'' reasoning traces. We present a theoretical analysis showing that sanitization based on attribution margins conditionally yields an exponentially small upper bound on the probability of selecting malicious actions. Experiments on AgentDojo and DoomArena demonstrate that CausalArmor matches the security of aggressive defenses while improving explainability and preserving utility and latency of AI agents.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

ScholarPeer: A Context-Aware Multi-Agent Framework for Automated Peer Review

The exponential growth of machine learning submissions has strained the traditional peer review process, resulting in slow feedback loops for authors and an immense burden on reviewers to rigorously audit technical soundness and verify literature. To address this, we introduce ScholarPeer, a multi-agent framework designed to operationalize the rigorous auditing workflow of a senior researcher. Rather than attempting to replace human judgment, ScholarPeer serves as a co-scientist: acting as a mentor for rapid author iteration prior to submission, and as an active verification assistant that augments human reviewers. The framework structurally decouples contextualization from critique by deploying a sub-domain historian to synthesize the field's trajectory, a baseline scout to proactively hunt for omitted state-of-the-art comparisons, and a multi-aspect Q&A engine that deeply audits technical soundness-scrutinizing internal logical consistency, experimental validity, and mathematical rigor-while cross-referencing claims against top-tier academic venues. We comprehensively evaluate ScholarPeer on ~1,800 ICLR submissions spanning 2020 through 2025. Our results show that ScholarPeer achieves significant win-rates against state-of-the-art fine-tuned models and search-augmented agentic baselines.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2025

Cognitive bias in LLM reasoning compromises interpretation of clinical oncology notes

Despite high performance on clinical benchmarks, large language models may reach correct conclusions through faulty reasoning, a failure mode with safety implications for oncology decision support that is not captured by accuracy-based evaluation. In this two-cohort retrospective study, we developed a hierarchical taxonomy of reasoning errors from GPT-4 chain-of-thought responses to real oncology notes and tested its clinical relevance. Using breast and pancreatic cancer notes from the CORAL dataset, we annotated 600 reasoning traces to define a three-tier taxonomy mapping computational failures to cognitive bias frameworks. We validated the taxonomy on 822 responses from prostate cancer consult notes spanning localized through metastatic disease, simulating extraction, analysis, and clinical recommendation tasks. Reasoning errors occurred in 23 percent of interpretations and dominated overall errors, with confirmation bias and anchoring bias most common. Reasoning failures were associated with guideline-discordant and potentially harmful recommendations, particularly in advanced disease management. Automated evaluators using state-of-the-art language models detected error presence but could not reliably classify subtypes. These findings show that large language models may provide fluent but clinically unsafe recommendations when reasoning is flawed. The taxonomy provides a generalizable framework for evaluating and improving reasoning fidelity before clinical deployment.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Synapse: Adaptive Arbitration of Complementary Expertise in Time Series Foundational Models

Pre-trained Time Series Foundational Models (TSFMs) represent a significant advance, capable of forecasting diverse time series with complex characteristics, including varied seasonalities, trends, and long-range dependencies. Despite their primary goal of universal time series forecasting, their efficacy is far from uniform; divergent training protocols and data sources cause individual TSFMs to exhibit highly variable performance across different forecasting tasks, domains, and horizons. Leveraging this complementary expertise by arbitrating existing TSFM outputs presents a compelling strategy, yet this remains a largely unexplored area of research. In this paper, we conduct a thorough examination of how different TSFMs exhibit specialized performance profiles across various forecasting settings, and how we can effectively leverage this behavior in arbitration between different time series models. We specifically analyze how factors such as model selection and forecast horizon distribution can influence the efficacy of arbitration strategies. Based on this analysis, we propose Synapse, a novel arbitration framework for TSFMs. Synapse is designed to dynamically leverage a pool of TSFMs, assign and adjust predictive weights based on their relative, context-dependent performance, and construct a robust forecast distribution by adaptively sampling from the output quantiles of constituent models. Experimental results demonstrate that Synapse consistently outperforms other popular ensembling techniques as well as individual TSFMs, demonstrating Synapse's efficacy in time series forecasting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

PHANTOM RECALL: When Familiar Puzzles Fool Smart Models

Large language models (LLMs) such as GPT, Gemini, and Claude often appear adept at solving classic logic puzzles--but how much genuine reasoning underlies their answers? Recent evidence suggests that these models frequently rely on memorized templates rather than reasoning from first principles. When puzzles are slightly modified, their performance collapses, revealing a striking fragility. In particular, we asked: Have LLMs addressed these issues? To what extent? How about perturbations to other puzzles? Is there a general way of reformulating the prompt so that the models do better? To examine these things systematically, we introduce PHANTOM RECALL, a benchmark comprising 25 well-known logic puzzles and 149 carefully designed perturbations that preserve reasoning structure but alter superficial details and solutions. We evaluate eleven leading LLMs and identify a recurring failure mode--phantom recall--where models confidently reproduce memorized solutions or spurious rationales that no longer fit the altered scenario. To probe and mitigate this issue, we contribute three tools: (i) an automated logical-equivalence judge to detect reasoning mismatches, (ii) a taxonomy of fine-grained reasoning error categories, and (iii) a prompting-based mitigation framework guided by these categories. Despite near-perfect accuracy on unmodified puzzles, models significantly underperform humans on perturbed ones, exhibiting both phantom recall and over-elaboration. Our findings reveal a crucial limitation: LLMs often fail to re-reason when contextual cues shift--highlighting the gap between linguistic fluency and logical understanding.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

GuidedSampling: Steering LLMs Towards Diverse Candidate Solutions at Inference-Time

Repeated Sampling (RS) is a simple inference-time algorithm that has been shown to improve model performance on complex tasks. Although it is an effective way of scaling inference time, it often struggles to generate diverse solution candidates, frequently relying on the same underlying approach to solve the problem and thus producing redundant samples. To address this limitation, we propose a new inference algorithm, GuidedSampling, which decouples the exploration and generation phases during inference, increasing diversity of generated candidate solutions. The exploration phase identifies multiple concepts that can be utilized to solve the problem, while the generation phase applies a specific concept to provide final solution candidates. We first define the theoretical bounds of GuidedSampling and then empirically demonstrate that it improves the performance of base model at pass@50 by on an average ~21.6% across various benchmarks compared to RS. Furthermore, models trained on trajectories of GuidedSampling exhibit substantial performance improvements at pass@5 by on an average ~9.7%, compared to models trained on traditional RS. Additionally, models trained with GuidedSampling increases the average number of concepts per instance (1.67 -> 3.03), yielding a diverse set of candidates than traditional RS.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

VeriGuard: Enhancing LLM Agent Safety via Verified Code Generation

The deployment of autonomous AI agents in sensitive domains, such as healthcare, introduces critical risks to safety, security, and privacy. These agents may deviate from user objectives, violate data handling policies, or be compromised by adversarial attacks. Mitigating these dangers necessitates a mechanism to formally guarantee that an agent's actions adhere to predefined safety constraints, a challenge that existing systems do not fully address. We introduce VeriGuard, a novel framework that provides formal safety guarantees for LLM-based agents through a dual-stage architecture designed for robust and verifiable correctness. The initial offline stage involves a comprehensive validation process. It begins by clarifying user intent to establish precise safety specifications. VeriGuard then synthesizes a behavioral policy and subjects it to both testing and formal verification to prove its compliance with these specifications. This iterative process refines the policy until it is deemed correct. Subsequently, the second stage provides online action monitoring, where VeriGuard operates as a runtime monitor to validate each proposed agent action against the pre-verified policy before execution. This separation of the exhaustive offline validation from the lightweight online monitoring allows formal guarantees to be practically applied, providing a robust safeguard that substantially improves the trustworthiness of LLM agents.

cs.SE↗

arXiv2025

LLM-Based Multi-Agent Blackboard System for Information Discovery in Data Science

Advances in large language models (LLMs) have created new opportunities in data science, but their deployment is often limited by the challenge of finding relevant data in large data lakes. Existing methods struggle with this: both single- and multi-agent systems are quickly overwhelmed by large, heterogeneous files, and master-slave multi-agent systems rely on a rigid central controller that requires precise knowledge of each sub-agent's capabilities, which is not possible in large-scale settings where the main agent lacks full observability over sub-agents' knowledge and competencies. We propose a novel multi-agent paradigm inspired by the blackboard architecture for traditional AI models. In our framework, a central agent posts requests to a shared blackboard, and autonomous subordinate agents - either responsible for a partition of the data lake or retrieval from the web - volunteer to respond based on their capabilities. This design improves scalability and flexibility by removing the need for a central coordinator to know each agent's expertise or internal knowledge. We evaluate the approach on three benchmarks that require data discovery: KramaBench and modified versions of DSBench and DA-Code. Results show that the blackboard architecture substantially outperforms strong baselines, achieving 13%-57% relative improvements in end-to-end success and up to a 9% relative gain in data discovery F1 over the best baseline.

cs.MA↗