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Mikael Kuusela

Publications and source records attributed to Mikael Kuusela.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Neural Conditional Simulation for Complex Spatial Processes

A key objective in spatial statistics is to simulate from the distribution of a spatial process at a selection of unobserved locations conditional on observations (i.e., a predictive distribution) to enable spatial prediction and uncertainty quantification. However, exact conditional simulation from this predictive distribution is intractable or inefficient for many spatial process models. In this paper, we propose neural conditional simulation (NCS), a general method for spatial conditional simulation that is based on neural diffusion models. Specifically, using spatial masks, we implement a conditional score-based diffusion model that evolves Gaussian noise into samples from a predictive distribution when given a partially observed spatial field and spatial process parameters as inputs. The diffusion model relies on a neural network that only requires unconditional samples from the spatial process for training. Once trained, the diffusion model is amortized with respect to the observations in the partially observed field, the number and locations of those observations, and the spatial process parameters, and can therefore be used to conditionally simulate from a broad class of predictive distributions without retraining the neural network. We assess the NCS-generated simulations against simulations from the true conditional distribution of a Gaussian process model, and against Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations from a Brown--Resnick process model for spatial extremes. In the latter case, we show that it is more efficient and accurate to conditionally simulate using NCS than classical MCMC techniques. We also demonstrate the use of NCS to predict spatial extremes in the Red Sea. We conclude that NCS enables efficient and accurate conditional simulation from spatial predictive distributions that are challenging to sample from using traditional methods.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Improved Global Ocean Heat Content Estimation by Modeling Vertical Spatio-Temporal Dependence

Estimating ocean heat content (OHC) with reliable uncertainties is critical for understanding and monitoring the evolution of Earth's climate, as the ocean has stored most of the energy accumulated in the climate system due to Earth Energy Imbalance. Here, we use Argo profiling float data from 2004-2022 to map OHC. As fewer Argo observations are available deeper in the water column, previous studies have partitioned the ocean into at least two pressure layers and mapped each separately, which complicates the estimation of uncertainties when the maps are summed to get the total OHC. In this work, we consider the case of two pressure layers and propose an improved mapping and uncertainty quantification method using bivariate locally stationary Gaussian processes and conditional simulations to map the two sections jointly while accounting for the correlation between them. We find that modeling this correlation results in improved OHC anomaly mapping and up to a 15 percent reduction of global OHC anomaly uncertainties in comparison to mapping the two layers separately without accounting for their dependence. These estimated uncertainties are essential to analyze the statistical significance of OHC anomalies on both regional and global scales, which we demonstrate using several climatological case studies.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2026

Confidence intervals for functionals in constrained inverse problems via data-adaptive sampling-based calibration

We address functional uncertainty quantification for ill-posed inverse problems where it is possible to evaluate a possibly rank-deficient forward model, the observation noise distribution is known, and there are known parameter constraints. We present four constraint-aware confidence intervals extending the work of Batlle et al. (2023) by making the intervals both computationally feasible and less conservative. Our approach first shrinks the potentially unbounded constraint set compact in a data-adaptive way, obtains samples of the relevant test statistic inside this set to estimate a quantile function, and then uses these computed quantities to produce the intervals. Our data-adaptive bounding approach is based on the approach by Berger and Boos (1994), and involves defining a subset of the constraint set where the true parameter exists with high probability. This probabilistic guarantee is then incorporated into the final coverage guarantee in the form of an uncertainty budget. We then propose custom sampling algorithms to efficiently sample from this subset, even when the parameter space is high-dimensional. Optimization-based interval methods formulate confidence interval computation as two endpoint optimizations, where the optimization constraints can be set to achieve different types of interval calibration while seamlessly incorporating parameter constraints. However, choosing valid optimization constraints has been elusive. We show that all four proposed intervals achieve nominal coverage for a particular functional both theoretically and in practice, with numerical examples demonstrating superior performance of our intervals over the OSB interval in terms of both coverage and expected length. In particular, we show the superior performance in a realistic unfolding simulation from high-energy physics that is severely ill-posed and involves a rank-deficient forward model.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Locally stationary Argo ocean heat content estimates: Modeling, validation and uncertainty quantification

Argo profiling floats measure seawater temperature and salinity in the upper 2000 meters of the ocean. These floats are uniquely capable of measuring the global Ocean Heat Content (OHC), a quantity that is of central importance for understanding Earth Energy Imbalance. Yet, producing Argo-based OHC estimates with reliable uncertainties is statistically challenging due to the complex structure and large size of the Argo dataset. Here we present an end-to-end mapping and uncertainty quantification framework for Argo-based OHC estimation using state-of-the-art methods from spatio-temporal statistics. The framework is based on modeling vertically integrated Argo temperature profiles as a locally stationary Gaussian process defined over space and time. This enables us to produce computationally tractable OHC anomaly maps based on data-driven decorrelation scales estimated from the Argo observations. Our modeling choices are validated using statistical cross-validation, which demonstrates the importance of including a climatological time trend in the mean field and accounting for time in the covariance function. We quantify the uncertainty of these maps using local conditional simulation ensembles, a novel approach that leads to principled spatially and temporally correlated uncertainty quantification. A new paired cross-validation technique is presented to validate these uncertainties. The mapping framework is implemented in an open-source codebase that is designed to be modular, reproducible and extensible. To demonstrate the mapping and uncertainty quantification capabilities of this approach, we present new Argo OHC maps with uncertainties for 2004-2022 and report on various downstream climatological estimates and their uncertainties.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2026

Machine Learning-based Unfolding for Cross Section Measurements in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters

Statistically correcting measured cross sections for detector effects is an important step across many applications. In particle physics, this inverse problem is known as unfolding. In cases with complex instruments, the distortions they introduce are often known only implicitly through simulations of the detector. Modern machine learning has enabled efficient simulation-based approaches for unfolding high-dimensional data. Among these, one of the first methods successfully deployed on experimental data is the OmniFold algorithm, a classifier-based Expectation-Maximization procedure. In practice, however, the forward model is only approximately specified, and the corresponding uncertainty is encoded through nuisance parameters. Building on the well-studied OmniFold algorithm, we show how to extend machine learning-based unfolding to incorporate nuisance parameters. Our new algorithm, called Profile OmniFold, is demonstrated using a Gaussian example as well as a particle physics case study using simulated data from the CMS Experiment at the Large Hadron Collider.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2026

Model-Agnostic Signal Discovery with Machine Learning: Bridging the Gap Between Theory and Practice

Searches for new phenomena in complex scientific data are predominantly model-dependent, optimized for specific hypotheses, and therefore limited in their coverage of the space of possible signals. Recently, new AI-based model-agnostic search strategies, many of which have been pioneered in high-energy physics, have been proposed which provide a complementary paradigm, prioritizing broad exploration over tailored analyses. These techniques offer an opportunity to enhance the overall discovery potential of modern experiments, especially in regimes where theoretical guidance is scarce. In this document, we review the conceptual framework behind the main classes of AI-based model-agnostic strategies. We discuss the potential pitfalls of these methods, and strategies for their validation and interpretation. We aim for this document to serve as a useful reference both for practitioners and for researchers interested in learning more about these model-agnostic search strategies.

physics.data-an↗
arXiv2026

Keeping Score: Efficiency Improvements in Neural Likelihood Surrogate Training via Score-Augmented Loss Functions

For stochastic process models, parameter inference is often severely bottlenecked by computationally expensive likelihood functions. Simulation-based inference (SBI) bypasses this restriction by constructing amortized surrogate likelihoods, but most SBI methods assume a black-box data generating process. While these surrogates are exact in the limit of infinite training data, practical scenarios force a strict tradeoff between model quality and simulation cost. In this work, we loosen the black-box assumption of SBI to improve this tradeoff for structured stochastic process models. Specifically, for neural network likelihood surrogates trained via probabilistic classification, we propose to augment the standard binary cross-entropy loss with exact score information $\nabla_θ\log p(x \mid θ)$ and adaptive weighting based on loss gradients. We evaluate our approach on case studies involving network dynamics and spatial processes, demonstrating that our method improves surrogate quality at a drastically lower computational cost than generating more training data. Notably, in some cases, our approach achieves downstream inference performance equivalent to a 10x increase in training data with less than a 1.1x increase in training time.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Downscaling land surface temperature data using edge detection and block-diagonal Gaussian process regression

Accurate and high-resolution estimation of land surface temperature (LST) is crucial in estimating evapotranspiration, a measure of plant water use and a central quantity in agricultural applications. In this work, we develop a novel statistical method for downscaling LST data obtained from NASA's ECOSTRESS mission, using high-resolution data from the Landsat 8 mission as a proxy for modeling agricultural field structure. Using the Landsat data, we identify the boundaries of agricultural fields through edge detection techniques, allowing us to capture the inherent block structure present in the spatial domain. We propose a block-diagonal Gaussian process (BDGP) model that captures the spatial structure of the agricultural fields, leverages independence of LST across fields for computational tractability, and accounts for the change of support present in ECOSTRESS observations. We use the resulting BDGP model to perform Gaussian process regression and obtain high-resolution estimates of LST from ECOSTRESS data, along with uncertainty quantification. Our results demonstrate the practicality of the proposed method in producing reliable high-resolution LST estimates, with potential applications in agriculture, urban planning, and climate studies.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2026

Response Matrix Estimation in Unfolding Differential Cross Sections

The unfolding problem in particle physics is to make inferences about the true particle spectrum based on smeared observations from a detector. This is an ill-posed inverse problem, where small changes in the smeared distribution can lead to large fluctuations in the unfolded distribution. The forward operator is the response matrix which models the detector response. In practice, the forward operator is rarely known analytically and is instead estimated using Monte Carlo simulation. This raises the question of how to best estimate the response matrix and what impact this estimation has on the unfolded solutions. In most analyses at the LHC, response matrix estimation is done by binning the true and smeared events and counting the propagation of events between the bins. However, this approach can result in a noisy estimate of the response matrix, especially with a small Monte Carlo sample size. Unexpectedly, we also find that the noise in the estimated response matrix can inadvertently regularize the problem. As an alternative, we propose to estimate the response matrix through the use of conditional density estimation of the response kernel in the unbinned setting followed by binning this estimator. Using simulation studies, we investigate the performance of the two approaches.

hep-ex↗
arXiv2025

Robust semi-parametric signal detection in particle physics with classifiers decorrelated via optimal transport

Searches for signals of new physics in particle physics are usually done by training a supervised classifier to separate a signal model from the known Standard Model physics (also called the background model). However, even when the signal model is correct, systematic errors in the background model can influence supervised classifiers and might adversely affect the signal detection procedure. To tackle this problem, one approach is to use the (possibly misspecified) classifier only to perform a preliminary signal-enrichment step and then to carry out a signal detection test on the signal-rich sample. For this procedure to work, we need a classifier constrained to be decorrelated with one or more protected variables used for the signal-detection step. We do this by considering an optimal transport map of the classifier output that makes it independent of the protected variable(s) for the background. We then fit a semiparametric mixture model to the distribution of the protected variable after making cuts on the transformed classifier to detect the presence of a signal. We compare and contrast this decorrelation method with previous approaches, show that the decorrelation procedure is robust to moderate background misspecification, and analyze the power and validity of the signal detection test as a function of the cut on the classifier both with and without decorrelation. We conclude that decorrelation and signal enrichment help produce a stable, robust, valid, and more powerful test.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2025

COWs and their Hybrids: A Statistical View of Custom Orthogonal Weights

A recurring challenge in high energy physics is inference of the signal component from a distribution for which observations are assumed to be a mixture of signal and background events. A standard assumption is that there exists information encoded in a discriminant variable that is effective at separating signal and background. This can be used to assign a signal weight to each event, with these weights used in subsequent analyses of one or more control variables of interest. The custom orthogonal weights (COWs) approach of Dembinski, et al.(2022), a generalization of the sPlot approach of Barlow (1987) and Pivk and Le Diberder (2005), is tailored to address this objective. The problem, and this method, present interesting and novel statistical issues. Here we formalize the assumptions needed and the statistical properties, while also considering extensions and alternative approaches.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2025

Simultaneous Frequentist Calibration of Confidence Regions for Multiple Functionals in Constrained Inverse Problems

Many scientific analyses require simultaneous comparison of multiple functionals of an unknown signal at once, calling for multidimensional confidence regions with guaranteed simultaneous frequentist under structural constraints (e.g., non-negativity, shape, or physics-based). This paper unifies and extends many previous optimization-based approaches to constrained confidence region construction in linear inverse problems through the lens of statistical test inversion. We begin by reviewing the historical development of optimization-based confidence intervals for the single-functional setting, from "strict bounds" to the Burrus conjecture and its recent refutation via the aforementioned test inversion framework. We then extend this framework to the multiple-functional setting. This framework can be used to: (i) improve the calibration constants of previous methods, yielding smaller confidence regions that still preserve frequentist coverage, (ii) obtain tractable multidimensional confidence regions that need not be hyper-rectangles to better capture functional dependence structure, and (iii) generalize beyond Gaussian error distributions to generic log-concave error distributions. We provide theory establishing nominal simultaneous coverage of our methods and show quantitative volume improvements relative to prior approaches using numerical experiments.

math.ST↗
arXiv2024

Neural Likelihood Surfaces for Spatial Processes with Computationally Intensive or Intractable Likelihoods

In spatial statistics, fast and accurate parameter estimation, coupled with a reliable means of uncertainty quantification, can be challenging when fitting a spatial process to real-world data because the likelihood function might be slow to evaluate or wholly intractable. In this work, we propose using convolutional neural networks to learn the likelihood function of a spatial process. Through a specifically designed classification task, our neural network implicitly learns the likelihood function, even in situations where the exact likelihood is not explicitly available. Once trained on the classification task, our neural network is calibrated using Platt scaling which improves the accuracy of the neural likelihood surfaces. To demonstrate our approach, we compare neural likelihood surfaces and the resulting maximum likelihood estimates and approximate confidence regions with the equivalent for exact or approximate likelihood for two different spatial processes: a Gaussian process and a Brown-Resnick process which have computationally intensive and intractable likelihoods, respectively. We conclude that our method provides fast and accurate parameter estimation with a reliable method of uncertainty quantification in situations where standard methods are either undesirably slow or inaccurate. The method is applicable to any spatial process on a grid from which fast simulations are available.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2024

Multidimensional Deconvolution with Profiling

In many experimental contexts, it is necessary to statistically remove the impact of instrumental effects in order to physically interpret measurements. This task has been extensively studied in particle physics, where the deconvolution task is called unfolding. A number of recent methods have shown how to perform high-dimensional, unbinned unfolding using machine learning. However, one of the assumptions in all of these methods is that the detector response is correctly modeled in the Monte Carlo simulation. In practice, the detector response depends on a number of nuisance parameters that can be constrained with data. We propose a new algorithm called Profile OmniFold, which works in a similar iterative manner as the OmniFold algorithm while being able to simultaneously profile the nuisance parameters. We illustrate the method with a Gaussian example as a proof of concept highlighting its promising capabilities.

hep-ph↗
arXiv2024

Toward Model-Agnostic Detection of New Physics Using Data-Driven Signal Regions

In the search for new particles in high-energy physics, it is crucial to select the Signal Region (SR) in such a way that it is enriched with signal events if they are present. While most existing search methods set the region relying on prior domain knowledge, it may be unavailable for a completely novel particle that falls outside the current scope of understanding. We address this issue by proposing a method built upon a model-agnostic but often realistic assumption about the localized topology of the signal events, in which they are concentrated in a certain area of the feature space. Considering the signal component as a localized high-frequency feature, our approach employs the notion of a low-pass filter. We define the SR as an area which is most affected when the observed events are smeared with additive random noise. We overcome challenges in density estimation in the high-dimensional feature space by learning the density ratio of events that potentially include a signal to the complementary observation of events that closely resemble the target events but are free of any signals. By applying our method to simulated $\mathrm{HH} \rightarrow 4b$ events, we demonstrate that the method can efficiently identify a data-driven SR in a high-dimensional feature space in which a high portion of signal events concentrate.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2024

Background Modeling for Double Higgs Boson Production: Density Ratios and Optimal Transport

We study the problem of data-driven background estimation, arising in the search of physics signals predicted by the Standard Model at the Large Hadron Collider. Our work is motivated by the search for the production of pairs of Higgs bosons decaying into four bottom quarks. A number of other physical processes, known as background, also share the same final state. The data arising in this problem is therefore a mixture of unlabeled background and signal events, and the primary aim of the analysis is to determine whether the proportion of unlabeled signal events is nonzero. A challenging but necessary first step is to estimate the distribution of background events. Past work in this area has determined regions of the space of collider events where signal is unlikely to appear, and where the background distribution is therefore identifiable. The background distribution can be estimated in these regions, and extrapolated into the region of primary interest using transfer learning with a multivariate classifier. We build upon this existing approach in two ways. First, we revisit this method by developing a customized residual neural network which is tailored to the structure and symmetries of collider data. Second, we develop a new method for background estimation, based on the optimal transport problem, which relies on modeling assumptions distinct from earlier work. These two methods can serve as cross-checks for each other in particle physics analyses, due to the complementarity of their underlying assumptions. We compare their performance on simulated double Higgs boson data.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2024

Optimization-based frequentist confidence intervals for functionals in constrained inverse problems: Resolving the Burrus conjecture

We present an optimization-based framework to construct confidence intervals for functionals in constrained inverse problems, ensuring valid one-at-a-time frequentist coverage guarantees. Our approach builds upon the now-called strict bounds intervals, originally pioneered by Burrus (1965) and Rust and Burrus (1972), which offer ways to directly incorporate any side information about the parameters during inference without introducing external biases. This family of methods allows for uncertainty quantification in ill-posed inverse problems without needing to select a regularizing prior. By tying optimization-based intervals to an inversion of a constrained likelihood ratio test, we translate interval coverage guarantees into type I error control and characterize the resulting interval via solutions to optimization problems. Along the way, we refute the Burrus conjecture, which posited that, for possibly rank-deficient linear Gaussian models with positivity constraints, a correction based on the quantile of the chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom suffices to shorten intervals while maintaining frequentist coverage guarantees. Our framework provides a novel approach to analyzing the conjecture, and we construct a counterexample employing a stochastic dominance argument, which we also use to disprove a general form of the conjecture. We illustrate our framework with several numerical examples and provide directions for extensions beyond the Rust-Burrus method for nonlinear, non-Gaussian settings with general constraints.

math.ST↗
arXiv2024

Spatio-temporal methods for estimating subsurface ocean thermal response to tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones (TCs), driven by heat exchange between the air and sea, pose a substantial risk to many communities around the world. Accurate characterization of the subsurface ocean thermal response to TC passage is crucial for accurate TC intensity forecasts and for an understanding of the role that TCs play in the global climate system. However, that characterization is complicated by the high-noise ocean environment, correlations inherent in spatio-temporal data, relative scarcity of in situ observations, and the entanglement of the TC-induced signal with seasonal signals. We present a general methodological framework that addresses these difficulties, integrating existing techniques in seasonal mean field estimation, Gaussian process modeling, and nonparametric regression into an ANOVA decomposition model. Importantly, we improve upon past work by properly handling seasonality, providing rigorous uncertainty quantification, and treating time as a continuous variable, rather than producing estimates that are binned in time. This ANOVA model is estimated using in situ subsurface temperature profiles from the Argo fleet of autonomous floats through a multi-step procedure, which (1) characterizes the upper ocean seasonal shift during the TC season; (2) models the variability in the temperature observations; (3) fits a thin plate spline using the variability estimates to account for heteroskedasticity and correlation between the observations. This spline fit reveals the ocean thermal response to TC passage. Through this framework, we obtain new scientific insights into the interaction between TCs and the ocean on a global scale, including a three-dimensional characterization of the near-surface and subsurface cooling along the TC storm track and the mixing-induced subsurface warming on the track's right side.

stat.AP↗