arXiv subjects

Mikaela Meyer

Publications and source records attributed to Mikaela Meyer.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2022

Flipping the Script on Criminal Justice Risk Assessment: An actuarial model for assessing the risk the federal sentencing system poses to defendants

In the criminal justice system, algorithmic risk assessment instruments are used to predict the risk a defendant poses to society; examples include the risk of recidivating or the risk of failing to appear at future court dates. However, defendants are also at risk of harm from the criminal justice system. To date, there exists no risk assessment instrument that considers the risk the system poses to the individual. We develop a risk assessment instrument that "flips the script." Using data about U.S. federal sentencing decisions, we build a risk assessment instrument that predicts the likelihood an individual will receive an especially lengthy sentence given factors that should be legally irrelevant to the sentencing decision. To do this, we develop a two-stage modeling approach. Our first-stage model is used to determine which sentences were "especially lengthy." We then use a second-stage model to predict the defendant's risk of receiving a sentence that is flagged as especially lengthy given factors that should be legally irrelevant. The factors that should be legally irrelevant include, for example, race, court location, and other socio-demographic information about the defendant. Our instrument achieves comparable predictive accuracy to risk assessment instruments used in pretrial and parole contexts. We discuss the limitations of our modeling approach and use the opportunity to highlight how traditional risk assessment instruments in various criminal justice settings also suffer from many of the same limitations and embedded value systems of their creators.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Think-aloud interviews: A tool for exploring student statistical reasoning

Think-aloud interviews have been a valuable but underused tool in statistics education research. Think-alouds, in which students narrate their reasoning in real time while solving problems, differ in important ways from other types of cognitive interviews and related education research methods. Beyond the uses already found in the statistics literature -- mostly validating the wording of statistical concept inventory questions and studying student misconceptions -- we suggest other possible use cases for think-alouds and summarize best-practice guidelines for designing think-aloud interview studies. Using examples from our own experiences studying the local student body for our introductory statistics courses, we illustrate how research goals should inform study-design decisions and what kinds of insights think-alouds can provide. We hope that our overview of think-alouds encourages more statistics educators and researchers to begin using this method.

stat.OT↗

arXiv2021

Changes in Crime Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

We estimate changes in the rates of five FBI Part 1 crime (homicide, auto theft, burglary, robbery, and larceny) during the COVID-19 pandemic from March through December 2020. Using publicly available weekly crime count data from 29 of the 70 largest cities in the U.S. from January 2018 through December 2020, three different linear regression model specifications are used to detect changes. One detects whether crime trends in four 2020 pre- and post-pandemic periods differ from those in 2018 and 2019. A second looks in more detail at the spring 2020 lockdowns to detect whether crime trends changed over successive biweekly periods into the lockdown. The third uses a city-level openness index that we created for the purpose of examining whether the degree of openness was associated with changing crime rates. For homicide and auto theft, we find significant increases during all or most of the pandemic. By contrast, we find significant declines in robbery and larceny during all or part of the pandemic and no significant changes in burglary over the course of the pandemic. Only larceny rates fluctuated with the degree of each city's lockdown. It is unusual for crime rates to move in different directions, and the reasons for the mixed findings for these five Part 1 Index crimes, one with no change, two with sustained increases, and two with sustained decreases, are not yet known. We hypothesize that the reasons may be related to changes in opportunity, and the pandemic provides unique opportunities for future research to better understand the forces impacting crime rates. In the absence of a clear understanding of the mechanisms by which the pandemic affected crime, in the spirit of evidence-based crime policy, we caution against advancing policy at this time based on lessons learned from the pandemic "natural experiment."

stat.AP↗