arXiv subjects

Mikko Kivelä

Publications and source records attributed to Mikko Kivelä.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Multiplexity is temporal: effects of social times on network structure

Large-scale social networks constructed using contact metadata have been invaluable tools for understanding and testing social theories of society-wide social structures. However, multiplex relationships explaining different social contexts have been out of reach of this methodology, limiting our ability to understand this crucial aspect of social systems. We propose a method that infers latent social times from the weekly activity of large-scale contact metadata, and reconstruct multilayer networks where layers correspond to social times. We then analyze the temporal multiplexity of ties in a society-wide communication network of millions of individuals. This allows us to test the propositions of Feld's social focus theory across a society-wide network: We show that ties favour their own social times regardless of contact intensity, suggesting they reflect underlying social foci. We present a result on strength of monoplex ties, which indicates that monoplex ties are bridging and even more important for global network connectivity than the weak, low-contact ties. Finally, we show that social times are transitive, so that when egos use a social time for a small subset of alters, the alters use the social time among themselves as well. Our framework opens up a way to analyse large-scale communication as multiplex networks and uncovers society-level patterns of multiplex connectivity.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Assortative and preferential attachment lead to core-periphery networks

Core-periphery is a key feature of large-scale networks underlying a wide range of social, biological, and transportation phenomena. Despite its prevalence in empirical data, it is unclear whether this property is a consequence of more fundamental network evolution processes. While preferential attachment can create degree heterogeneity indistinguishable from core-periphery, it doesn't explain why specific groups of nodes gain dominance and become cores. We show that even small amounts of assortative attachment, e.g. homophily in social networks, can break this symmetry, and that the interplay of the two mechanisms leads to one of the groups emerging as a prominent core. A systematic analysis of the phase space of the proposed model reveals the levels of assortative and preferential attachment necessary for a group to become either core or periphery, depending on initial conditions. We find that relative group size is significant, with minority groups typically having a disadvantage on becoming the core for similar assortative attachment levels among groups. We also find that growing networks are less prone to develop core-periphery than dynamically evolving networks, and that these two network evolution mechanisms lead to different types of core-periphery structures. Analyzing five empirical networks, our findings suggest that core nodes are highly assortative, illustrating the potential of our model as a tool for designing and analyzing interventions on evolving networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Effectiveness of Contact Tracing on Networks with Cliques

Contact tracing, the practice of isolating individuals who have been in contact with infected individuals, is an effective and practical way of containing disease spread. Here, we show that this strategy is particularly effective in the presence of social groups: Once the disease enters a group, contact tracing not only cuts direct infection paths but can also pre-emptively quarantine group members such that it will cut indirect spreading routes. We show these results by using a deliberately stylized model that allows us to isolate the effect of contact tracing within the clique structure of the network where the contagion is spreading. This will enable us to derive mean-field approximations and epidemic thresholds to demonstrate the efficiency of contact tracing in social networks with small groups. This analysis shows that contact tracing in networks with groups is more efficient the larger the groups are. We show how these results can be understood by approximating the combination of disease spreading and contact tracing with a complex contagion process where every failed infection attempt will lead to a lower infection probability in the following attempts. Our results illustrate how contact tracing in real-world settings can be more efficient than predicted by models that treat the system as fully mixed or the network structure as locally tree-like.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Complex coalitions: political alliances across relational contexts

Coalitions are central to politics, including government formation, international relations, and public policy. Coalitions emerge when actors engage one another across multiple relational contexts, but existing literature often approaches coalitions in singular contexts. We introduce complex coalitions, a theoretical-methodological framework that emphasises the relevance of multiple contexts and cross-context dependencies in coalition politics. We also implement tools to statistically infer such coalition structures using multilayer networks. To demonstrate the usefulness of our approach, we compare coalitions among Finnish organisations engaging in climate politics across three con-texts: resource coordination, legacy media discourse, and social media communication. We show that considering coalitions as complex and accounting for cross-context dependencies improves the empirical validity of coalition studies. In our case study, the three contexts represent complementary, but not congruent, channels for enacting coalitions. In conclusion, we argue that the complex coalitions approach is useful for advancing understanding of coalitions in different political realms.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Subnetwork enumeration algorithms for multilayer networks

To understand the structure of a network, it can be useful to break it down into its constituent pieces. This is the approach taken in a multitude of successful network analysis methods, such as motif analysis. These methods require one to enumerate or sample small connected subgraphs of a network, which can be computationally intractable if naive methods are used. Efficient algorithms exists for both enumeration and uniform sampling of subgraphs, and here we generalize the ESU algorithm for a very general notion of multilayer networks. We show that multilayer network subnetwork enumeration introduces nontrivial complications to the existing algorithm, and present two different generalized algorithms that preserve the desired features of unbiased sampling and trivial parallelization. We evaluate these algorithms in synthetic networks and with real-world data, and show that neither of the algorithms is strictly more efficient but rather the choice depends on the features of the data. Having a general algorithm for finding subnetworks makes advanced multilayer network analysis possible, and enables researchers to apply a variety of methods to previously difficult-to-handle multilayer networks in a variety of domains and across many different types of multilayer networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

The Russian invasion of Ukraine selectively depolarized the Finnish NATO discussion

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 dramatically reshaped the European security landscape. In Finland, public opinion on NATO had long been polarized along the left-right partisan axis, but the invasion led to a rapid convergence of the opinion toward joining NATO. We investigate whether and how this depolarization took place among polarized actors on Finnish Twitter. By analyzing retweeting patterns, we find three separated user groups before the invasion: a pro-NATO, a left-wing anti-NATO, and a conspiracy-charged anti-NATO group. After the invasion, the left-wing anti-NATO group members broke out of their retweeting bubble and connected with the pro-NATO group despite their difference in partisanship, while the conspiracy-charged anti-NATO group mostly remained a separate cluster. Our content analysis reveals that the left-wing anti-NATO group and the pro-NATO group were bridged by a shared condemnation of Russia's actions and shared democratic norms, while the other anti-NATO group, mainly built around conspiracy theories and disinformation, consistently demonstrated a clear anti-NATO attitude. We show that an external threat can bridge partisan divides in issues linked to the threat, but bubbles upheld by conspiracy theories and disinformation may persist even under dramatic external threats.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Reticula: A temporal network and hypergraph analysis software package

In the last decade, temporal networks and static and temporal hypergraphs have enabled modelling connectivity and spreading processes in a wide array of real-world complex systems such as economic transactions, information spreading, brain activity and disease spreading. In this manuscript, we present the Reticula C++ library and Python package: A comprehensive suite of tools for working with real-world and synthetic static and temporal networks and hypergraphs. This includes various methods of creating synthetic networks and randomised null models based on real-world data, calculating reachability and simulating compartmental models on networks. The library is designed principally on an extensible, cache-friendly representation of networks, with an aim of easing multi-thread use in the high-performance computing environment.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Efficient limited-time reachability estimation in temporal networks

Time-limited states characterise many dynamical processes on networks: disease infected individuals recover after some time, people forget news spreading on social networks, or passengers may not wait forever for a connection. These dynamics can be described as limited waiting-time processes, and they are particularly important for systems modelled as temporal networks. These processes have been studied via simulations, which is equivalent to repeatedly finding all limited-waiting time temporal paths from a source node and time. We propose a method yielding orders of magnitude more efficient way of tracking the reachability of such temporal paths. Our method gives simultaneous estimates of the in- or out-reachability (with any chosen waiting-time limit) from every possible starting point and time. It works on very large temporal networks with hundreds of millions of events on current commodity computing hardware. This opens up the possibility to analyse reachability and dynamics of spreading processes on large temporal networks in completely new ways. For example, one can now compute centralities based on global reachability for all events or can find with high probability the infected node and time, which would lead to the largest epidemic outbreak.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Directed Percolation in Random Temporal Network Models with Heterogeneities

The event graph representation of temporal networks suggests that the connectivity of temporal structures can be mapped to a directed percolation problem. However, similar to percolation theory on static networks, this mapping is valid under the approximation that the structure and interaction dynamics of the temporal network are determined by its local properties, and otherwise, it is maximally random. We challenge these conditions and demonstrate the robustness of this mapping in case of more complicated systems. We systematically analyze random and regular network topologies and heterogeneous link-activation processes driven by bursty renewal or self-exciting processes using numerical simulation and finite-size scaling methods. We find that the critical percolation exponents characterizing the temporal network are not sensitive to many structural and dynamical network heterogeneities, while they recover known scaling exponents characterizing directed percolation on low dimensional lattices. While it is not possible to demonstrate the validity of this mapping for all temporal network models, our results establish the first batch of evidence supporting the robustness of the scaling relationships in the limited-time reachability of temporal networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Directed Percolation in Temporal Networks

Connectivity and reachability on temporal networks, which can describe the spreading of a disease, decimation of information or the accessibility of a public transport system over time, have been among the main contemporary areas of study in complex systems for the last decade. However, while isotropic percolation theory successfully describes connectivity in static networks, a similar description has not been yet developed for temporal networks. Here address this problem and formalize a mapping of the concept of temporal network reachability to percolation theory. We show that the limited-waiting-time reachability, a generic notion of constrained connectivity in temporal networks, displays directed percolation phase transition in connectivity. Consequently, the critical percolation properties of spreading processes on temporal networks can be estimated by a set of known exponents characterising the directed percolation universality class. This result is robust across a diverse set of temporal network models with different temporal and topological heterogeneities, while by using our methodology we uncover similar reachability phase transitions in real temporal networks too. These findings open up an avenue to apply theory, concepts and methodology from the well-developed directed percolation literature to temporal networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

OVNS: Opportunistic Variable Neighborhood Search for Heaviest Subgraph Problem in Social Networks

We propose a hybrid heuristic algorithm for solving the Heaviest k-Subgraph Problem in online social networks -- a combinatorial graph optimization problem central to many important applications in weighted social networks, including detection of coordinated behavior, maximizing diversity of a group of users, and detecting social groups. Our approach builds upon an existing metaheuristic framework known as Variable Neighborhood Search and takes advantage of empirical insights about social network structures to derive an improved optimization heuristic. We conduct benchmarks in both real life social networks as well as synthetic networks and demonstrate that the proposed modifications match and in the majority of cases supersede those of the current state-of-the-art approaches.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Randomized reference models for temporal networks

Many dynamical systems can be successfully analyzed by representing them as networks. Empirically measured networks and dynamic processes that take place in these situations show heterogeneous, non-Markovian, and intrinsically correlated topologies and dynamics. This makes their analysis particularly challenging. Randomized reference models (RRMs) have emerged as a general and versatile toolbox for studying such systems. Defined as random networks with given features constrained to match those of an input (empirical) network, they may, for example, be used to identify important features of empirical networks and their effects on dynamical processes unfolding in the network. RRMs are typically implemented as procedures that reshuffle an empirical network, making them very generally applicable. However, the effects of most shuffling procedures on network features remain poorly understood, rendering their use nontrivial and susceptible to misinterpretation. Here we propose a unified framework for classifying and understanding microcanonical RRMs (MRRMs) that sample networks with uniform probability. Focusing on temporal networks, we survey applications of MRRMs found in the literature, and we use this framework to build a taxonomy of MRRMs that proposes a canonical naming convention, classifies them, and deduces their effects on a range of important network features. We furthermore show that certain classes of MRRMs may be applied in sequential composition to generate new MRRMs from the existing ones surveyed in this article. We finally provide a tutorial showing how to apply a series of MRRMs to analyze how different network features affect a dynamic process in an empirical temporal network.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Epidemic Spreading and Digital Contact Tracing: Effects of Heterogeneous Mixing and Quarantine Failures

Contact tracing via digital tracking applications installed on mobile phones is an important tool for controlling epidemic spreading. Its effectivity can be quantified by modifying the standard methodology for analyzing percolation and connectivity of contact networks. We apply this framework to networks with varying degree distributions, numbers of application users, and probabilities of quarantine failures. Further, we study structured populations with homophily and heterophily and the possibility of degree-targeted application distribution. Our results are based on a combination of explicit simulations and mean-field analysis. They indicate that there can be major differences in the epidemic size and epidemic probabilities which are equivalent in the normal SIR processes. Further, degree heterogeneity is seen to be especially important for the epidemic threshold but not as much for the epidemic size. The probability that tracing leads to quarantines is not as important as the application adoption rate. Finally, both strong homophily and especially heterophily with regard to application adoption can be detrimental. Overall, epidemic dynamics are very sensitive to all of the parameter values we tested out, which makes the problem of estimating the effect of digital contact tracing an inherently multidimensional problem.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Herd Immunity and Epidemic Size in Networks with Vaccination Homophily

We study how the herd immunity threshold and the expected epidemic size depend on homophily with respect to vaccine adoption. We find that the presence of homophily considerably increases the critical vaccine coverage needed for herd immunity and that strong homophily can push the threshold entirely out of reach. The epidemic size monotonically increases as a function of homophily strength for a perfect vaccine, while it is maximized at a nontrivial level of homophily when the vaccine efficacy is limited. Our results highlight the importance of vaccination homophily in epidemic modeling.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Separating Polarization from Noise: Comparison and Normalization of Structural Polarization Measures

Quantifying the amount of polarization is crucial for understanding and studying political polarization in political and social systems. Several methods are used commonly to measure polarization in social networks by purely inspecting their structure. We analyse eight of such methods and show that all of them yield high polarization scores even for random networks with similar density and degree distributions to typical real-world networks. Further, some of the methods are sensitive to degree distributions and relative sizes of the polarized groups. We propose normalization to the existing scores and a minimal set of tests that a score should pass in order for it to be suitable for separating polarized networks from random noise. The performance of the scores increased by 38%-220% after normalization in a classification task of 203 networks. Further, we find that the choice of method is not as important as normalization, after which most of the methods have better performance than the best-performing method before normalization. This work opens up the possibility to critically assess and compare the features and performance of different methods for measuring structural polarization.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Communication Now and Then: Analyzing the Republic of Letters as a Communication Network

Huge advances in understanding patterns of human communication, and the underlying social networks where it takes place, have been made recently using massive automatically recorded data sets from digital communication, such as emails and phone calls. However, it is not clear to what extent these results on human behaviour are artefacts of contemporary communication technology and culture and if the fundamental patterns in communication have changed over history. This paper presents an analysis of historical epistolary metadata with the aim of comparing the underlying historical communication patterns with those of contemporary communication. Our work uses a new epistolary dataset containing metadata on over 150 000 letters sent between the 16th and 19th centuries. The analyses indicate striking resemblances between contemporary and epistolary communication network patterns, including dyadic interactions and ego-level behaviour. Despite these positive findings, certain aspects of the letter datasets are insufficient to corroborate other similarities or differences for these communication networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Adaptive and optimized COVID-19 vaccination strategies across geographical regions and age groups

We evaluate the efficiency of various heuristic strategies for allocating vaccines against COVID-19 and compare them to strategies found using optimal control theory. Our approach is based on a mathematical model which tracks the spread of disease among different age groups and across different geographical regions, and we introduce a method to combine age-specific contact data to geographical movement data. As a case study, we model the epidemic in the population of mainland Finland utilizing mobility data from a major telecom operator. Our approach allows to determine which geographical regions and age groups should be targeted first in order to minimize the number of deaths. In the scenarios that we test, we find that distributing vaccines demographically and in an age-descending order is not optimal for minimizing deaths and the burden of disease. Instead, more lives could potentially be saved by using strategies which emphasize high-incidence regions and distribute vaccines in parallel to multiple age groups. The level of emphasis that high-incidence regions should be given depends on the overall transmission rate in the population. This observation highlights the importance of updating the vaccination strategy when the effective reproduction number changes due to the general contact patterns changing and new virus variants entering.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Spread of Tweets in Climate Discussions

Characterising the spreading of ideas within echo chambers is essential for understanding polarisation. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of popular and viral content in climate change discussions on Twitter around the 2019 announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize, where we find the retweet network of users to be polarised into two well-separated groups of activists and sceptics. Operationalising popularity as the number of retweets and virality as the spreading probability inferred using an independent cascade model, we find that the viral themes echo and differ from the popular themes in interesting ways. Most importantly, we find that the most viral themes in the two groups reflect different types of bonds that tie the community together, yet both function to enhance ingroup connections while repulsing outgroup engagement. With this, our study sheds light, from an information spreading perspective, on the formation and upkeep of echo chambers in climate discussions.

cs.SI↗