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Mikko S. Pakkanen

Publications and source records attributed to Mikko S. Pakkanen.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Diverse Approaches to Optimal Execution Schedule Generation

We present the first application of MAP-Elites, a quality-diversity algorithm, to trade execution. Rather than searching for a single optimal policy, MAP-Elites generates a diverse portfolio of regime-specialist strategies indexed by liquidity and volatility conditions. Individual specialists achieve 8-10% performance improvements within their behavioural niches, while other cells show degradation, suggesting opportunities for ensemble approaches that combine improved specialists with the baseline PPO policy. Results indicate that quality-diversity methods offer promise for regime-adaptive execution, though substantial computational resources per behavioural cell may be required for robust specialist development across all market conditions. To ensure experimental integrity, we develop a calibrated Gymnasium environment focused on order scheduling rather than tactical placement decisions. The simulator features a transient impact model with exponential decay and square-root volume scaling, fit to 400+ U.S. equities with $R^2>0.02$ out-of-sample. Within this environment, two Proximal Policy Optimization architectures - both MLP and CNN feature extractors - demonstrate substantial improvements over industry baselines, with the CNN variant achieving 2.13 bps arrival slippage versus 5.23 bps for VWAP on 4,900 out-of-sample orders ($21B notional). These results validate both the simulation realism and provide strong single-policy baselines for quality-diversity methods.

q-fin.TR↗

A GMM approach to estimate the roughness of stochastic volatility

We develop a GMM approach for estimation of log-normal stochastic volatility models driven by a fractional Brownian motion with unrestricted Hurst exponent. We show that a parameter estimator based on the integrated variance is consistent and, under stronger conditions, asymptotically normally distributed. We inspect the behavior of our procedure when integrated variance is replaced with a noisy measure of volatility calculated from discrete high-frequency data. The realized estimator contains sampling error, which skews the fractal coefficient toward "illusive roughness." We construct an analytical approach to control the impact of measurement error without introducing nuisance parameters. In a simulation study, we demonstrate convincing small sample properties of our approach based both on integrated and realized variance over the entire memory spectrum. We show the bias correction attenuates any systematic deviance in the parameter estimates. Our procedure is applied to empirical high-frequency data from numerous leading equity indexes. With our robust approach the Hurst index is estimated around 0.05, confirming roughness in stochastic volatility.

q-fin.ST↗

Wasserstein error estimates between telegraph processes and Brownian motion

We provide non-asymptotic error bounds in the path Wasserstein distance with quadratic integral cost between suitable functionals of the telegraph process and the corresponding functional of Brownian motion with explicit diffusivity constant. These results cover, in particular, the well-known example of the exponential integral functional of the geometric Brownian motion. The non-asymptotic error bounds tend to zero in the so-called Kac regime. Moreover, the error bounds remain valid when the flip rate for the telegraph process is small. We assess the sharpness of the error bounds through numerical experiments.

math.PR↗

Learning with Expected Signatures: Theory and Applications

The expected signature maps a collection of data streams to a lower dimensional representation, with a remarkable property: the resulting feature tensor can fully characterize the data generating distribution. This "model-free" embedding has been successfully leveraged to build multiple domain-agnostic machine learning (ML) algorithms for time series and sequential data. The convergence results proved in this paper bridge the gap between the expected signature's empirical discrete-time estimator and its theoretical continuous-time value, allowing for a more complete probabilistic interpretation of expected signature-based ML methods. Moreover, when the data generating process is a martingale, we suggest a simple modification of the expected signature estimator with significantly lower mean squared error and empirically demonstrate how it can be effectively applied to improve predictive performance.

stat.ML↗

Estimation and Inference for Multivariate Continuous-time Autoregressive Processes

The aim of this paper is to develop estimation and inference methods for the drift parameters of multivariate Lévy-driven continuous-time autoregressive processes of order $p\in\mathbb{N}$. Starting from a continuous-time observation of the process, we develop consistent and asymptotically normal maximum likelihood estimators. We then relax the unrealistic assumption of continuous-time observation by considering natural discretizations based on a combination of Riemann-sum, finite difference, and thresholding approximations. The resulting estimators are also proven to be consistent and asymptotically normal under a general set of conditions, allowing for both finite and infinite jump activity in the driving Lévy process. When discretizing the estimators, allowing for irregularly spaced observations is of great practical importance. In this respect, CAR($p$) models are not just relevant for "true" continuous-time processes: a CAR($p$) specification provides a natural continuous-time interpolation for modeling irregularly spaced data - even if the observed process is inherently discrete. As a practically relevant application, we consider the setting where the multivariate observation is known to possess a graphical structure. We refer to such a process as GrCAR and discuss the corresponding drift estimators and their properties. The finite sample behavior of all theoretical asymptotic results is empirically assessed by extensive simulation experiments.

stat.ME↗

Intrinsic Randomness in Epidemic Modelling Beyond Statistical Uncertainty

Uncertainty can be classified as either aleatoric (intrinsic randomness) or epistemic (imperfect knowledge of parameters). The majority of frameworks assessing infectious disease risk consider only epistemic uncertainty. We only ever observe a single epidemic, and therefore cannot empirically determine aleatoric uncertainty. Here, we characterise both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty using a time-varying general branching process. Our framework explicitly decomposes aleatoric variance into mechanistic components, quantifying the contribution to uncertainty produced by each factor in the epidemic process, and how these contributions vary over time. The aleatoric variance of an outbreak is itself a renewal equation where past variance affects future variance. We find that, superspreading is not necessary for substantial uncertainty, and profound variation in outbreak size can occur even without overdispersion in the offspring distribution (i.e. the distribution of the number of secondary infections an infected person produces). Aleatoric forecasting uncertainty grows dynamically and rapidly, and so forecasting using only epistemic uncertainty is a significant underestimate. Therefore, failure to account for aleatoric uncertainty will ensure that policymakers are misled about the substantially higher true extent of potential risk. We demonstrate our method, and the extent to which potential risk is underestimated, using two historical examples.

q-bio.PE↗

Unifying incidence and prevalence under a time-varying general branching process

Renewal equations are a popular approach used in modelling the number of new infections, i.e., incidence, in an outbreak. We develop a stochastic model of an outbreak based on a time-varying variant of the Crump-Mode-Jagers branching process. This model accommodates a time-varying reproduction number and a time-varying distribution for the generation interval. We then derive renewal-like integral equations for incidence, cumulative incidence and prevalence under this model. We show that the equations for incidence and prevalence are consistent with the so-called back-calculation relationship. We analyse two particular cases of these integral equations, one that arises from a Bellman-Harris process and one that arises from an inhomogeneous Poisson process model of transmission. We also show that the incidence integral equations that arise from both of these specific models agree with the renewal equation used ubiquitously in infectious disease modelling. We present a numerical discretisation scheme to solve these equations, and use this scheme to estimate rates of transmission from serological prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK and historical incidence data on Influenza, Measles, SARS and Smallpox.

q-bio.PE↗

Limit theorems for the realised semicovariances of multivariate Brownian semistationary processes

In this article we will introduce the realised semicovariance for Brownian semistationary (BSS) processes, which is obtained from the decomposition of the realised covariance matrix into components based on the signs of the returns, and study its in-fill asymptotic properties. More precisely, a weak convergence in the space of càdlàg functions endowed with the Skorohod topology for the realised semicovariance of a general Gaussian process with stationary increments is proved first. The methods are based on Breuer-Major theorems and on a moment bound for sums of products of Gaussian vector's functions. Furthermore, we establish a corresponding stable convergence. Finally, a weak law of large numbers and a central limit theorem for the realised semicovariance of multivariate BSS processes are established. These results extend the limit theorems for the realised covariation to a result for non-linear functionals.

math.PR↗

Deep Hedging: Continuous Reinforcement Learning for Hedging of General Portfolios across Multiple Risk Aversions

We present a method for finding optimal hedging policies for arbitrary initial portfolios and market states. We develop a novel actor-critic algorithm for solving general risk-averse stochastic control problems and use it to learn hedging strategies across multiple risk aversion levels simultaneously. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach with a numerical example in a stochastic volatility environment.

q-fin.CP↗

Deep Hedging: Learning to Remove the Drift under Trading Frictions with Minimal Equivalent Near-Martingale Measures

We present a machine learning approach for finding minimal equivalent martingale measures for markets simulators of tradable instruments, e.g. for a spot price and options written on the same underlying. We extend our results to markets with frictions, in which case we find "near-martingale measures" under which the prices of hedging instruments are martingales within their bid/ask spread. By removing the drift, we are then able to learn using Deep Hedging a "clean" hedge for an exotic payoff which is not polluted by the trading strategy trying to make money from statistical arbitrage opportunities. We correspondingly highlight the robustness of this hedge vs estimation error of the original market simulator. We discuss applications to two market simulators.

q-fin.CP↗

State-dependent Hawkes processes and their application to limit order book modelling

We study statistical aspects of state-dependent Hawkes processes, which are an extension of Hawkes processes where a self- and cross-exciting counting process and a state process are fully coupled, interacting with each other. The excitation kernel of the counting process depends on the state process that, reciprocally, switches state when there is an event in the counting process. We first establish the existence and uniqueness of state-dependent Hawkes processes and explain how they can be simulated. Then we develop maximum likelihood estimation methodology for parametric specifications of the process. We apply state-dependent Hawkes processes to high-frequency limit order book data, allowing us to build a novel model that captures the feedback loop between the order flow and the shape of the limit order book. We estimate two specifications of the model, using the bid-ask spread and the queue imbalance as state variables, and find that excitation effects in the order flow are strongly state-dependent. Additionally, we find that the endogeneity of the order flow, measured by the magnitude of excitation, is also state-dependent, being more pronounced in disequilibrium states of the limit order book.

q-fin.ST↗

Deep Hedging: Learning Risk-Neutral Implied Volatility Dynamics

We present a numerically efficient approach for learning a risk-neutral measure for paths of simulated spot and option prices up to a finite horizon under convex transaction costs and convex trading constraints. This approach can then be used to implement a stochastic implied volatility model in the following two steps: 1. Train a market simulator for option prices, as discussed for example in our recent; 2. Find a risk-neutral density, specifically the minimal entropy martingale measure. The resulting model can be used for risk-neutral pricing, or for Deep Hedging in the case of transaction costs or trading constraints. To motivate the proposed approach, we also show that market dynamics are free from "statistical arbitrage" in the absence of transaction costs if and only if they follow a risk-neutral measure. We additionally provide a more general characterization in the presence of convex transaction costs and trading constraints. These results can be seen as an analogue of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing for statistical arbitrage under trading frictions and are of independent interest.

q-fin.CP↗

Feasible Inference for Stochastic Volatility in Brownian Semistationary Processes

This article studies the finite sample behaviour of a number of estimators for the integrated power volatility process of a Brownian semistationary process in the non semi-martingale setting. We establish three consistent feasible estimators for the integrated volatility, two derived from parametric methods and one non-parametrically. We then use a simulation study to compare the convergence properties of the estimators to one another, and to a benchmark of an infeasible estimator. We further establish bounds for the asymptotic variance of the infeasible estimator and assess whether a central limit theorem which holds for the infeasible estimator can be translated into a feasible limit theorem for the non-parametric estimator.

math.ST↗

Decoupling the short- and long-term behavior of stochastic volatility

We introduce a new class of continuous-time models of the stochastic volatility of asset prices. The models can simultaneously incorporate roughness and slowly decaying autocorrelations, including proper long memory, which are two stylized facts often found in volatility data. Our prime model is based on the so-called Brownian semistationary process and we derive a number of theoretical properties of this process, relevant to volatility modeling. Applying the models to realized volatility measures covering a vast panel of assets, we find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that time series of realized measures of volatility are both rough and very persistent. Lastly, we illustrate the utility of the models in an extensive forecasting study; we find that the models proposed in this paper outperform a wide array of benchmarks considerably, indicating that it pays off to exploit both roughness and persistence in volatility forecasting.

q-fin.ST↗

Limit Theorems for Trawl Processes

In this work we derive limit theorems for trawl processes. First,we study the asymptotic behaviour of the partial sums of the discretized trawl process $(X_{iΔ_{n}})_{i=0}^{\lfloor nt\rfloor-1}$, under the assumption that as $n\uparrow\infty$, $Δ_{n}\downarrow0$ and $nΔ_{n}\rightarrowμ\in[0,+\infty]$. Second, we derive a functional limit theorem for trawl processes as the Lévy measure of the trawl seed grows to infinity and show that the limiting process has a Gaussian moving average representation.

math.PR↗

Pathwise large deviations for the Rough Bergomi model

We study the small-time behaviour of the rough Bergomi model, introduced by Bayer, Friz and Gatheral (2016), and prove a large deviations principle for a rescaled version of the normalised log stock price process, which then allows us to characterise the small-time behaviour of the implied volatility.

math.PR↗

Hybrid marked point processes: characterisation, existence and uniqueness

We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with complex dynamics. These processes are defined implicitly via their intensity and are endowed with a state process that interacts with past-dependent events. The key example we entertain is an extension of a Hawkes process, a state-dependent Hawkes process interacting with its state process. We show the existence and uniqueness of hybrid marked point processes under general assumptions, extending the results of Massoulié (1998) on interacting point processes.

math.PR↗

Turbocharging Monte Carlo pricing for the rough Bergomi model

The rough Bergomi model, introduced by Bayer, Friz and Gatheral [Quant. Finance 16(6), 887-904, 2016], is one of the recent rough volatility models that are consistent with the stylised fact of implied volatility surfaces being essentially time-invariant, and are able to capture the term structure of skew observed in equity markets. In the absence of analytical European option pricing methods for the model, we focus on reducing the runtime-adjusted variance of Monte Carlo implied volatilities, thereby contributing to the model's calibration by simulation. We employ a novel composition of variance reduction methods, immediately applicable to any conditionally log-normal stochastic volatility model. Assuming one targets implied volatility estimates with a given degree of confidence, thus calibration RMSE, the results we demonstrate equate to significant runtime reductions - roughly 20 times on average, across different correlation regimes.

q-fin.CP↗