arXiv subjects

Mikko Tuomi

Publications and source records attributed to Mikko Tuomi.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

The LCES HIRES/Keck Precision Radial Velocity Exoplanet Survey

We describe a 20-year survey carried out by the Lick-Carnegie Exoplanet Survey Team (LCES), using precision radial velocities from HIRES on the Keck-I telescope to find and characterize extrasolar planetary systems orbiting nearby F, G, K, and M dwarf stars. We provide here 60,949 precision radial velocities for 1,624 stars contained in that survey. We tabulate a list of 357 significant periodic signals that are of constant period and phase, and not coincident in period and/or phase with stellar activity indices. These signals are thus strongly suggestive of barycentric reflex motion of the star induced by one or more candidate exoplanets in Keplerian motion about the host star. Of these signals, 225 have already been published as planet claims, 60 are classified as significant unpublished planet candidates that await photometric follow-up to rule out activity-related causes, and 54 are also unpublished, but are classified as "significant" signals that require confirmation by additional data before rising to classification as planet candidates. Of particular interest is our detection of a candidate planet with a minimum mass of 3.9 Earth masses and an orbital period of 9.9 days orbiting Lalande 21185, the fourth-closest main sequence star to the Sun. For each of our exoplanetary candidate signals, we provide the period and semi-amplitude of the Keplerian orbital fit, and a likelihood ratio estimate of its statistical significance. We also tabulate 18 Keplerian-like signals that we classify as likely arising from stellar activity.

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arXiv2016

A terrestrial planet candidate in a temperate orbit around Proxima Centauri

At a distance of 1.295 parsecs, the red-dwarf Proxima Centauri ($α$ Centauri C, GL 551, HIP 70890, or simply Proxima) is the Sun's closest stellar neighbor and one of the best studied low-mass stars. It has an effective temperature of only $\sim$ 3050 K, a luminosity of $\sim$0.1 per cent solar, a measured radius of 0.14 R$_\odot$ and a mass of about 12 per cent the mass of the Sun. Although Proxima is considered a moderately active star, its rotation period is $\sim$ 83 days, and its quiescent activity levels and X-ray luminosity are comparable to the Sun's. New observations reveal the presence of a small planet orbiting Proxima with a minimum mass of 1.3~Earth masses and an orbital period of $\sim$11.2 days. Its orbital semi-major axis is $\sim0.05$ AU, with an equilibrium temperature in the range where water could be liquid on its surface.

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arXiv2015

No evidence for activity correlations in the radial velocities of Kapteyn's star

Stellar activity may induce Doppler variability at the level of a few m/s which can then be confused by the Doppler signal of an exoplanet orbiting the star. To first order, linear correlations between radial velocity measurements and activity indices have been proposed to account for any such correlation. The likely presence of two super-Earths orbiting Kapteyn's star was reported in Anglada et al. (2014, MNRAS 443L, 89A), but this claim was recently challenged by Robertson et al. (2015, ApJ 805L, 22R) arguing evidence of a rotation period (143 days) at three times the orbital period of one of the proposed planets (Kapteyn's b, P=48.6 days), and the existence of strong linear correlations between its Doppler signal and activity data. By re-analyzing the data using global optimization methods and model comparison, we show that such claim is incorrect given that; 1) the choice of a rotation period at 143 days is unjustified, and 2) the presence of linear correlations is not supported by the data. We conclude that the radial velocity signals of Kapteyn's star remain more simply explained by the presence of two super-Earth candidates orbiting it. We also advocate for the use of global optimization procedures and objective arguments, instead of claims lacking of a minimal statistical support.

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arXiv2015

Benchmarking the power of amateur observatories for TTV exoplanets detection

We perform an analysis of ~80000 photometric measurements for the following 10 stars hosting transiting planets: WASP-2, -4, -5, -52, Kelt-1, CoRoT-2, XO-2, TrES-1, HD 189733, GJ 436. Our analysis includes mainly transit lightcurves from the Exoplanet Transit Database, public photometry from the literature, and some proprietary photometry privately supplied by other authors. Half of these lightcurves were obtained by amateurs. From this photometry we derive 306 transit timing measurements, as well as improved planetary transit parameters. Additionally, for 6 of these 10 stars we present a set of radial velocity measurements obtained from the spectra stored in the HARPS, HARPS-N, and SOPHIE archives using the HARPS-TERRA pipeline. Our analysis of these TTV and RV data did not reveal significant hints of additional orbiting bodies in almost all of the cases. In the WASP-4 case, we found hints of marginally significant TTV signals having amplitude 10-20 sec, although their parameters are model-dependent and uncertain, while radial velocities did not reveal statistically significant Doppler signals.

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arXiv2015

Comment on "Stellar activity masquerading as planets in the habitable zone of the M dwarf Gliese 581"

Robertson et al.(Reports, July 25 2014, p440-444)(1) claimed that activity-induced variability is responsible for the Doppler signal of the proposed planet candidate GJ 581d. We point out that their analysis using periodograms of residual data is incorrect, further promoting inadequate tools. Since the claim challenges the viability of the method to detect exo-Earths, we urge for more appropriate analyses (see appendix).

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arXiv2014

GJ 832c: A super-earth in the habitable zone

We report the detection of GJ 832c, a super-Earth orbiting near the inner edge of the habitable zone of GJ 832, an M dwarf previously known to host a Jupiter analog in a nearly-circular 9.4-year orbit. The combination of precise radial-velocity measurements from three telescopes reveals the presence of a planet with a period of 35.68+/-0.03 days and minimum mass (m sin i) of 5.4+/-1.0 Earth masses. GJ 832c moves on a low-eccentricity orbit (e=0.18+/-0.13) towards the inner edge of the habitable zone. However, given the large mass of the planet, it seems likely that it would possess a massive atmosphere, which may well render the planet inhospitable. Indeed, it is perhaps more likely that GJ 832c is a "super-Venus," featuring significant greenhouse forcing. With an outer giant planet and an interior, potentially rocky planet, the GJ 832 planetary system can be thought of as a miniature version of our own Solar system.

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arXiv2014

The curious case of HD41248. A pair of static signals buried behind red-noise

Gaining a better understanding of the effects of stellar induced radial velocity noise is critical for the future of exoplanet studies, since the discovery of the lowest-mass planets using this method will require us to go below the intrinsic stellar noise limit. An interesting test case in this respect is that of the southern solar analogue HD41248. The radial velocity time series of this star has been proposed to contain either a pair of signals with periods of around 18 and 25 days, that could be due to a pair of resonant super-Earths, or a single and varying 25 day signal that could arise due to a complex interplay between differential rotation and modulated activity. In this letter we build-up more evidence for the former scenario, showing that the signals are still clearly significant even after more than 10 years of observations and they likely do not change in period, amplitude, or phase as a function of time, the hallmarks of static Doppler signals. We show that over the last two observing seasons this star was more intrinsically active and the noise reddened, highlighting why better noise models are needed to find the lowest amplitude signals, in particular models that consider noise correlations. This analysis shows that there is still sufficient evidence for the existence of two super-Earths on the edge of, or locked into, a 7:5 mean motion resonance orbiting HD41248.

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arXiv2014

Two planets around Kapteyn's star : a cold and a temperate super-Earth orbiting the nearest halo red-dwarf

Exoplanets of a few Earth masses can be now detected around nearby low-mass stars using Doppler spectroscopy. In this paper, we investigate the radial velocity variations of Kapteyn's star, which is both a sub-dwarf M-star and the nearest halo object to the Sun. The observations comprise archival and new HARPS, HIRES and PFS Doppler measurements. Two Doppler signals are detected at periods of 48 and 120 days using likelihood periodograms and a Bayesian analysis of the data. Using the same techniques, the activity indicies and archival ASAS-3 photometry show evidence for low-level activity periodicities of the order of several hundred days. However, there are no significant correlations with the radial velocity variations on the same time-scales. The inclusion of planetary Keplerian signals in the model results in levels of correlated and excess white noise that are remarkably low compared to younger G, K and M dwarfs. We conclude that Kapteyn's star is most probably orbited by two super-Earth mass planets, one of which is orbiting in its circumstellar habitable zone, becoming the oldest potentially habitable planet known to date. The presence and long-term survival of a planetary system seems a remarkable feat given the peculiar origin and kinematic history of Kapteyn's star. The detection of super-Earth mass planets around halo stars provides important insights into planet-formation processes in the early days of the Milky Way.

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arXiv2014

Filtering out activity-related variations from radial velocities in a search for low-mass planets

Variations related to stellar activity and correlated noise can prevent the detections of low-amplitude signals in radial velocity data if not accounted for. This can be seen as the greatest obstacle in detecting Earth-like planets orbiting nearby stars with Doppler spectroscopy regardless of developments in instrumentation and rapidly accumulating amounts of data. We use a statistical model that is not sensitive to aperiodic and/or quasiperiodic variability of stellar origin. We demonstrate the performance of our model by re-analysing the radial velocities of the moderately active star CoRoT-7 ($\log R_{\rm HK} = -4.61$) with a transiting planet whose Doppler signal has proven rather difficult to detect. We find that the signal of the transiting planet can be robustly detected together with signals of two other planet candidates. Our results suggest that rotation periods of moderately active stars can be filtered out of the radial velocity noise, which enables the detections of low-mass planets orbiting such stars.

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arXiv2014

Bayesian search for low-mass planets around nearby M dwarfs. Estimates for occurrence rate based on global detectability statistics

Due to their higher planet-star mass-ratios, M dwarfs are the easiest targets for detection of low-mass planets orbiting nearby stars using Doppler spectroscopy. Furthermore, because of their low masses and luminosities, Doppler measurements enable the detection of low-mass planets in their habitable zones that correspond to closer orbits than for Solar-type stars. We re-analyse literature UVES radial velocities of 41 nearby M dwarfs in a combination with new velocities obtained from publicly available spectra from the HARPS-ESO spectrograph of these stars in an attempt to constrain any low-amplitude Keplerian signals. We apply Bayesian signal detection criteria, together with posterior sampling techniques, in combination with noise models that take into account correlations in the data and obtain estimates for the number of planet candidates in the sample. More generally, we use the estimated detection probability function to calculate the occurrence rate of low-mass planets around nearby M dwarfs. We report eight new planet candidates in the sample (orbiting GJ 27.1, GJ 160.2, GJ 180, GJ 229, GJ 422, and GJ 682), including two new multiplanet systems, and confirm two previously known candidates in the GJ 433 system based on detections of Keplerian signals in the combined UVES and HARPS radial velocity data that cannot be explained by periodic and/or quasiperiodic phenomena related to stellar activities. Finally, we use the estimated detection probability function to calculate the occurrence rate of low-mass planets around nearby M dwarfs. According to our results, M dwarfs are hosts to an abundance of low-mass planets and the occurrence rate of planets less massive than 10 M$_{\oplus}$ is of the order of one planet per star, possibly even greater. ...

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arXiv2014

The Anglo-Australian Planet Search. XXIII. Two New Jupiter Analogs

We report the discovery of two long-period giant planets from the Anglo-Australian Planet Search. HD 154857c is in a multiple-planet system, while HD 114613b appears to be solitary. HD 114613b has an orbital period P=10.5 years, and a minimum mass m sin i of 0.48 Jupiter masses; HD 154857c has P=9.5 years and m sin i=2.6 Jupiter masses. These new data confirm the planetary nature of the previously unconstrained long-period object in the HD 154857 system. We have performed detailed dynamical stability simulations which show that the HD 154857 two-planet system is stable on timescales of at least 100 million years. These results highlight the continued importance of "legacy" surveys with long observational baselines; these ongoing campaigns are critical for determining the population of Jupiter analogs, and hence of those planetary systems with architectures most like our own Solar system.

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arXiv2014

A new cold sub-Saturnian candidate planet orbiting GJ 221

We re-analyse the recently published HARPS and PFS velocities of the nearby K dwarf GJ 221 that have been reported to contain the signatures of two planets orbiting the star. Our goal is to see whether the earlier studies discussing the system fell victims of false negative detections. We perform the analyses by using an independent statistical method based on posterior samplings and model comparisons in the Bayesian framework that is known to be more sensitive to weak signals of low-mass planets. According to our analyses, we find strong evidence in favour of a third candidate planet in the system corresponding to a cold sub-Saturnian planet with an orbital period of 500 days and a minimum mass of 29 $M_{\oplus}$. Application of sub-optimal signal detection methods can leave low-amplitude signals undetected in radial velocity time-series. Our results suggest that the estimated statistical properties of low-mass planets can thus be biased because several signals corresponding to low-mass candidate planets may have gone unnoticed. This also suggests that the occurrence rates of such planets based on radial velocity surveys might be underestimated.

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arXiv2013

A dynamically-packed planetary system around GJ667C with three super-Earths in its habitable zone

Since low-mass stars have low luminosities, orbits at which liquid water can exist on Earth-sized planets are relatively close-in, which produces Doppler signals that are detectable using state-of-the-art Doppler spectroscopy. GJ 667C is already known to be orbited by two super-Earth candidates. We investigate whether the data supports the presence of additional companions. We obtain new Doppler measurements from HARPS extracted spectra and combined them with those obtained from the PFS and HIRES spectrographs. We used Bayesian and periodogram-based methods to re-assess the number of candidates and evaluated the confidence of each detection. Among other tests, we validated the planet candidates by analyzing correlations of each Doppler signal activity indices and investigate quasi-periodicity. Doppler measurements of GJ 667C are described better by six Keplerian-like signals: the two known candidates (b and c); three additional few-Earth mass candidates with periods of 92, 62 and 39 days (d, e and f); a cold super-Earth in a 260-day orbit (g) and tantalizing evidence of a $\sim$ 1 M$_\oplus$ object in a close-in orbit of 17 days (h). We explore whether long-term stable orbits are compatible with the data by integrating 8$\times 10^4$ solutions derived from the Bayesian samplings. The system consisting of six planets is compatible with dynamically stable configurations. As for the solar system, the most stable solutions do not contain mean-motion resonances and are described well by analytic Laplace-Lagrange solutions. The presence of a seventh planet (h) is supported by the fact that it appears squarely centered on the only island of stability left in the six-planet solution. Habitability assessments accounting for the stellar flux, as well as tidal dissipation effects, indicate that three (maybe four) planets are potentially habitable...

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arXiv2013

Up to four planets around the M dwarf GJ 163. Sensitivity of Bayesian planet detection criteria to prior choice

Exoplanet Doppler surveys are currently the most efficient means to detect low-mass companions to nearby stars. Among these stars, the light M dwarfs provide the highest sensitivity to detect low-mass exoplanet candidates. Evidence is accumulating that a substantial fraction of these low-mass planets are found in high-multiplicity planetary systems. GJ 163 is a nearby inactive M dwarf with abundant public observations obtained using the HARPS spectrograph. We obtain and analyse radial velocities from the HARPS public spectra of GJ 163 and investigate the presence of a planetary companions orbiting it. The number of planet candidates detected might depend on some prior assumptions. Since the impact of prior choice has not been investigated throughly previously, we study the effects of different prior densities on the detectability of planet candidates around GJ 163. We use Bayesian tools, i.e. posterior samplings and model comparisons, when analysing the GJ 163 velocities. We consider models accounting for the possible correlations of subsequent measurements. We also search for activity-related counterparts of the signals we observe and test the dynamical stability of the planetary systems corresponding to our solutions using direct numerical integrations of the orbits. We find that there are at least three planet candidates orbiting GJ 163. The existence of a fourth planet is supported by the data but the evidence in favor of the corresponding model is not yet conclusive. The second innermost planet candidate in the system with an orbital period of 25.6 days and a minimum mass of 8.7 Me is inside the liquid-water habitable zone of the star.

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arXiv2013

Two Super-Earths Orbiting the Solar Analogue HD41248 on the edge of a 7:5 Mean Motion Resonance

The number of multi-planet systems known to be orbiting their host stars with orbital periods that place them in mean motion resonances is growing. For the most part, these systems are in first-order resonances and dynamical studies have focused their efforts towards understanding the origin and evolution of such dynamically resonant commensurabilities. We report here the discovery of two super-Earths that are close to a second-order dynamical resonance, orbiting the metal-poor ([Fe/H]=-0.43 dex) and inactive G2V star HD41248. We analysed 62 HARPS archival radial velocities for this star, that until now, had exhibited no evidence for planetary companions. Using our new Bayesian Doppler signal detection algorithm, we find two significant signals in the data, with periods of 18.357 days and 25.648 days, indicating they could be part of a 7:5 second-order mean motion resonance. Both semi-amplitudes are below 3m/s and the minimum masses of the pair are 12.3 and 8.6Mearth, respectively. Our simulations found that apsidal alignment stabilizes the system, and even though libration of the resonant angles was not seen, the system is affected by the presence of the resonance and could yet occupy the 7:5 commensurability, which would be the first planetary configuration in such a dynamical resonance. Given the multitude of low-mass multiplanet systems that will be discovered in the coming years, we expect more of these second-order resonant configurations will emerge from the data, highlighting the need for a better understanding of the dynamical interactions between forming planetesimals.

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arXiv2013

Status of the Calan-Hertfordshire Extrasolar Planet Search

In these proceedings we give a status update of the Calan-Hertfordshire Extrasolar Planet Search, an international collaboration led from Chile that aims to discover more planets around super metal-rich and Sun-like stars, and then follow these up with precision photometry to hunt for new bright transit planets. We highlight some results from this program, including exoplanet and brown dwarf discoveries, and a possible correlation between metallicity and planetary minimum mass at the lowest planetary masses detectable. Finally we discuss the short-term and long-term future pathways this program can take.

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arXiv2013

Signals embedded in the radial velocity noise

Bayesian data analysis techniques, together with suitable statistical models, can be used to obtain much more information from noisy data than the traditional frequentist methods. For instance, when searching for periodic signals in noisy data, the Bayesian techniques can be used to define exact detection criteria for low-amplitude signals - the most interesting signals that might correspond to habitable planets. We present an overview of Bayesian techniques and present detailed analyses of the HARPS-TERRA velocities of HD 40307, a nearby star observed to host a candidate habitable planet, to demonstrate in practice the applicability of Bayes' rule to astronomical data.

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arXiv2012

Signals embedded in the radial velocity noise. Periodic variations in the tau Ceti velocities

The abilities of radial velocity exoplanet surveys to detect the lowest-mass extra-solar planets are currently limited by a combination of instrument precision, lack of data, and "jitter". Jitter is a general term for any unknown features in the noise, and reflects a lack of detailed knowledge of stellar physics (asteroseismology, starspots, magnetic cycles, granulation, and other stellar surface phenomena), as well as the possible underestimation of instrument noise. We study an extensive set of radial velocities for the star HD 10700 ($τ$ Ceti) to determine the properties of the jitter arising from stellar surface inhomogeneities, activity, and telescope-instrument systems, and perform a comprehensive search for planetary signals in the radial velocities. We perform Bayesian comparisons of statistical models describing the radial velocity data to quantify the number of significant signals and the magnitude and properties of the excess noise in the data. We reach our goal by adding artificial signals to the "flat" radial velocity data of HD 10700 and by seeing which one of our statistical noise models receives the greatest posterior probabilities while still being able to extract the artificial signals correctly from the data. We utilise various noise components to assess properties of the noise in the data and analyse the HARPS, AAPS, and HIRES data for HD 10700 to quantify these properties and search for previously unknown low-amplitude Keplerian signals. ...

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