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Miklós Rásonyi

Publications and source records attributed to Miklós Rásonyi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

A note on markets with semi-static trading strategies

We consider a discrete-time financial market model where, in addition to finitely many dynamically traded assets, there are also (possibly infinitely many) static options to choose from. We introduce the concept of small cones of random variables and present a sufficient condition for the attainable positions in the market to be closed in probability. A fundamental theorem of asset pricing is shown in the present context. Utility maximization will also be considered. We will provide economically meaningful examples of infinite dimensional small cones to demonstrate the pertinence of our approach.

q-fin.MF↗

On stochastic stability of systems driven by red noise

We consider discrete-time non-linear stochastic dynamical systems where the driving noise is not i.i.d. but an autoregressive process (``red noise''). Under a standard dissipativity condition, we prove geometrically fast convergence to a stationary distribution in total variation.

math.PR↗

Where Does MEV Really Come From? Revisiting CEXDEX Arbitrage on Ethereum

A central question of the Ethereum ecosystem is where Maximal Extractable Value (MEV)revenue originates and to what extent it stems from harming unsuspecting users. It is acceptable if MEV arises from arbitrages between centralised and decentralised exchanges (CEX-DEX). Yet theoretical models have significantly underestimated the scale of these arbitrages, while empirical studies have highlighted their importance - though these remain conservative estimates, constrained by numerous debatable heuristic assumptions. Revisiting the theoretical model, we found that CEX-DEX arbitrages require trading volumes on the order of the total activity of major liquidity pools and yield profits comparable to MEV. Most prior AMM models utilised the Black-Scholes (BS) stochastic differential equation (SDE) - i.e., geometric Brownian motion - and assumed continuous price trajectories where asset prices move in small increments only.We argue that BS underestimates arbitrage profits by ignoring price jumps, which are precisely the points at which arbitrage opportunities tend to arise. To address this gap, we present an extended discrete-time AMM model in which the price process is the sum of a diffusive component and stochastic jumps that can have arbitrary noise distributions. Although mathematically more involved this framework allows us to employ a general discrete-time SDE and compute the stationary probability distribution via function iteration with geometric convergence. We further prove that the resulting mispricing process is an ergodic Markov chain. We implement our model in C++, collect spot prices and AMM exchange data from the Ethereum blockchain and fit the model parameters to the observed prices. The estimates derived from our model closely match empirical observations and provide a natural theoretical explanation for several fundamental questions in the blockchain ecosystem.

cs.CR↗

On ergodicity of the SAGA-LD algorithm

The so-called SAGA-LD algorithm is used for efficient sampling from high-dimensional distributions in machine learning. Its intricate dynamics resists standard approaches of Markov chain theory. We prove, using a model-specific method, that SAGA-LD converges to a limiting distribution and a law of large numbers holds.

math.PR↗

Exponential utility maximization in small/large financial markets

Obtaining utility maximizing optimal portfolios in closed form is a challenging issue when the return vector follows a more general distribution than the normal one. In this note, we give closed form expressions, in markets based on finitely many assets, for optimal portfolios that maximize the expected exponential utility when the return vector follows normal mean-variance mixture models. We then consider large financial markets based on normal mean-variance mixture models also and show that, under exponential utility, the optimal utilities based on small markets converge to the optimal utility in the large financial market. This result shows, in particular, that to reach optimal utility level investors need to diversify their portfolios to include infinitely many assets into their portfolio and with portfolios based on any set of only finitely many assets, they never be able to reach optimum level of utility. In this paper, we also consider portfolio optimization problems with more general class of utility functions and provide an easy-to-implement numerical procedure for locating optimal portfolios. Especially, our approach in this part of the paper reduces a high dimensional problem in locating optimal portfolio into a three dimensional problem for a general class of utility functions.

q-fin.PM↗

Sharp Mixing Rates for Markov Chains on General Spaces with Unbounded Random Environments

We consider Markov chains on general state spaces in stationary random environment which are defined by a random mapping that is contractive up to a bounded perturbation. We prove their convergence to a limiting law, providing convergence rates. We also show that these processes are strongly mixing and estimate their mixing coefficients. Our results significantly extend those available in the literature. In particular, for some additive autoregressive processes with exogenous covariates we achieve mixing rates that are optimal up to logarithmic factors.

math.PR↗

On the existence of personal equilibria

We consider an investor who, while maximizing his/her expected utility, also compares the outcome to a reference entity. We recall the notion of personal equilibrium and show that, in a multistep, generically incomplete financial market model such an equilibrium indeed exists, under appropriate technical assumptions.

q-fin.PM↗

On the utility problem in a market where price impact is transient

We consider a discrete-time model of a financial market where a risky asset is bought and sold with transactions having a transient price impact. It is shown that the corresponding utility maximization problem admits a solution. We manage to remove some unnatural restrictions on the market depth and resilience processes that were present in earlier work. A non-standard feature of the problem is that the set of attainable portfolio values may fail the convexity property.

q-fin.PM↗

Stochastic Approximation in a Markovian Framework Revisited: Lipschitz Continuity of the Poisson Equation

In this paper we revisit a fundamental technical issue within the theory of stochastic approximation (SA) in a Markovian framework, first proposed in the book by Djereveckii and Fradkov (1981), and further developed in much detail in the book by Benveniste, M{é}tivier, and Priouret (1990). This theory is instrumental in many application areas such as the statistical analysis of Hidden Markov Models arising in telecommunication, quantized linear stochastic systems, and more recently in active learning and reinforcement learning. The problem at hand is the verification of the existence, uniqueness and Lipschitz-continuity of the solution of a parameter-dependent Poisson equation, in an appropriate weighted sup-norm, associated with a collection of Markov chains on general state spaces. Verification of the above facts is vital in the analysis of SA processes presented in (Benveniste et al., 1990) via the ODE (ordinary differential equations) method, requiring substantial technical effort. The motivation and focus of the paper is to address this technical issue, by presenting a simple set of conditions, under which the above properties of the Poisson equation at hand can be conveniently established. The starting point of our work is an intricate result of Hairer and Mattingly (2011) proving that by tilting standard conditions of mainstream stability theory for Markov chains, the transition kernels prove to be contractions in the space of differences of probability measures in a suitable metric. To demonstrate the applicability of our results, the proposed conditions are verified for a class of queuing system with open-loop control.

math.PR↗

Rate estimates for weighted total variation norm in terms of Wasserstein distances

We study the weighted total variation distance between probability measures. Using Fourier-analytic tools, we present estimates in terms of Wasserstein distances between the respective probabilities, under appropriate smoothness and moment conditions. We apply our results to convergence of functionals in Malliavin calculus.

math.PR↗

On the strong stability of ergodic iterations

We revisit processes generated by iterated random functions driven by a stationary and ergodic sequence. Such a process is called strongly stable if a random initialization exists, for which the process is stationary and ergodic, and for any other initialization, the difference between the two processes converges to zero almost surely. Under some mild conditions on the corresponding recursive map, without any condition on the driving sequence, we show the strong stability of iterations. Several applications are surveyed such as generalized autoregression and queuing. Furthermore, new results are deduced for Langevin-type iterations with dependent noise and for multitype branching processes.

math.PR↗

Utility-based acceptability indices

In this short paper we introduce a new class of performance measures based on certainty equivalents defined via scaled utility functions. We analyse their properties, show that the corresponding portfolio optimization problem is well-posed under generic conditions, and analyse the link between portfolio dynamics, benchmark process, and utility function choice in the long-run setting.

q-fin.RM↗

Functional Central Limit Theorem and Strong Law of Large Numbers for Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics

We study the mixing properties of an important optimization algorithm of machine learning: the stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) with a fixed step size. The data stream is not assumed to be independent hence the SGLD is not a Markov chain, merely a \emph{Markov chain in a random environment}, which complicates the mathematical treatment considerably. We derive a strong law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for SGLD.

math.PR↗

Taming neural networks with TUSLA: Non-convex learning via adaptive stochastic gradient Langevin algorithms

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are typically highly nonlinear systems which are finely tuned via the optimization of their associated, non-convex loss functions. In many cases, the gradient of any such loss function has superlinear growth, making the use of the widely-accepted (stochastic) gradient descent methods, which are based on Euler numerical schemes, problematic. We offer a new learning algorithm based on an appropriately constructed variant of the popular stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD), which is called tamed unadjusted stochastic Langevin algorithm (TUSLA). We also provide a nonasymptotic analysis of the new algorithm's convergence properties in the context of non-convex learning problems with the use of ANNs. Thus, we provide finite-time guarantees for TUSLA to find approximate minimizers of both empirical and population risks. The roots of the TUSLA algorithm are based on the taming technology for diffusion processes with superlinear coefficients as developed in \citet{tamed-euler, SabanisAoAP} and for MCMC algorithms in \citet{tula}. Numerical experiments are presented which confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate the need for the use of the new algorithm in comparison to vanilla SGLD within the framework of ANNs.

cs.LG↗

Ergodic aspects of trading with threshold strategies

To profit from price oscillations, investors frequently use threshold-type strategies where changes in the portfolio position are triggered by some indicators reaching prescribed levels. In this paper, we investigate threshold-type strategies in the context of ergodic control. We make the first steps towards their optimization by proving the ergodic properties of related functionals. Assuming Markovian price increments satisfying a minorization condition and (one-sided) boundedness we show, in particular, that for given thresholds, the distribution of the gains converges in the long run. We also extend recent results on the stability of overshoots of random walks from the i.i.d.\ increment case to Markovian increments, under suitable conditions.

math.PR↗

What if we knew what the future brings? Optimal investment for a frontrunner with price impact

In this paper we study optimal investment when the investor can peek some time units into the future, but cannot fully take advantage of this knowledge because of quadratic transaction costs. In the Bachelier setting with exponential utility, we give an explicit solution to this control problem with intrinsically infinite-dimensional memory. This is made possible by solving the dual problem where we make use of the theory of Gaussian Volterra integral equations.

q-fin.MF↗