arXiv subjects

Milan M. Cirkovic

Publications and source records attributed to Milan M. Cirkovic.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2022

The nutshell kings: Why is human space settlement controversial in the first place?

Recent years have seen both a revival of space programs, mostly propelled by private industry's increasing interest, but also the emergence of strong resistance to human space activities on several levels. This is partly a manifestation of a wider counter-Enlightenment Zeitgeist, as detectable in other sectors of public life in the West, and partly a reaction against the widespread engagement of the private sector. While it still does not dominate the discourse on space issues, space skepticism is surprisingly wide-ranging and decentralized phenomenon, gathering together heterogeneous strands of thought from pro-Enlightenment liberals to rabid "deep ecology" activists to philosophical pessimists to antiglobalists of all colors. There has been precious little in way of actively opposing this cultural trend so far, however. While space engineers and entrepreneurs conduct their "business as usual", there are plethora of risks hidden in this cultural climate, esp. if one adopts much repeated (and rarely adequately understood) maxim that "politics is downstream of culture." The present article will review major strands of thought within this big tent cultural movement, offer plausible counter-arguments to space skeptics, and outline important cultural and public-outreach work which needs to be done to balance the scales.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Alternative Explanations of the Cosmic Microwave Background: A Historical and an Epistemological Perspective

We historically trace various non-conventional explanations for the origin of the cosmic microwave background and discuss their merit, while analyzing the dynamics of their rejection, as well as the relevant physical and methodological reasons for it. It turns out that there have been many such unorthodox interpretations; not only those developed in the context of theories rejecting the relativistic ("Big Bang") paradigm entirely (e.g., by Alfven, Hoyle and Narlikar) but also those coming from the camp of original thinkers firmly entrenched in the relativistic milieu (e.g., by Rees, Ellis, Rowan-Robinson, Layzer and Hively). In fact, the orthodox interpretation has only incrementally won out against the alternatives over the course of the three decades of its multi-stage development. While on the whole, none of the alternatives to the hot Big Bang scenario is persuasive today, we discuss the epistemic ramifications of establishing orthodoxy and eliminating alternatives in science, an issue recently discussed by philosophers and historians of science for other areas of physics. Finally, we single out some plausible and possibly fruitful ideas offered by the alternatives.

physics.hist-ph↗

arXiv2017

That is not dead which can eternal lie: the aestivation hypothesis for resolving Fermi's paradox

If a civilization wants to maximize computation it appears rational to aestivate until the far future in order to exploit the low temperature environment: this can produce a $10^{30}$ multiplier of achievable computation. We hence suggest the "aestivation hypothesis": the reason we are not observing manifestations of alien civilizations is that they are currently (mostly) inactive, patiently waiting for future cosmic eras. This paper analyzes the assumptions going into the hypothesis and how physical law and observational evidence constrain the motivations of aliens compatible with the hypothesis.

physics.pop-ph↗

arXiv2016

Long-Term Prospects: Mitigation of Supernova and Gamma-Ray Burst Threat to Intelligent Beings

We consider global catastrophic risks due to cosmic explosions (supernovae, magnetars and gamma-ray bursts) and possible mitigation strategies by humans and other hypothetical intelligent beings. While by their very nature these events are so huge to daunt conventional thinking on mitigation and response, we wish to argue that advanced technological civilizations would be able to develop efficient responses in the domain of astroengineering within their home planetary systems. In particular, we suggest that construction of shielding swarms of small objects/particles confined by electromagnetic fields could be one way of mitigating the risk of cosmic explosions and corresponding ionizing radiation surges. Such feats of astroengineering could, in principle, be detectable from afar by advanced Dysonian SETI searches.

physics.pop-ph↗

arXiv2016

Fermi's Paradox Is a Daunting Problem---Under Whatever Label

Gray (2015) argued that the Fermi paradox (FP) is a misnomer, and it is not a valid paradox. Gray also speculated that the argument was misattributed to Fermi, whose lunchtime remarks did not pertain to the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence, but to the feasibility of interstellar travel. Instead, the paradox is ascribed to Hart and Tipler, and it is further suggested that the paradox is not a real problem or research subject and should not be used in debates about SETI projects. The arguments given are unpersuasive, ahistorical, and, in at least one instance, clearly hinge on literalistic and uncharitable reading of evidence. Instead, I argue the following three points: (i) Contrary to Gray's assertion, the historical issue of naming of ideas or concepts is completely divorced from their epistemic status. (ii) FP is easily and smoothly generalized into the Great Silence paradox, so it makes no sense either theoretically or empirically to separate the two. (iii) In sharp contrast to the main implication of Gray's paper, FP has become more aggravated lately due to advances in astrobiology.

physics.gen-ph↗

arXiv2016

Kardashev's Classification at 50+: A Fine Vehicle with Room for Improvement

We review the history and status of the famous classification of extraterrestrial civilizations given by the great Russian astrophysicist Nikolai Semenovich Kardashev, roughly half a century after it has been proposed. While Kardashev's classification (or Kardashev's scale) has often been seen as oversimplified, and multiple improvements, refinements, and alternatives to it have been suggested, it is still one of the major tools for serious theoretical investigation of SETI issues. During these 50+ years, several attempts at modifying or reforming the classification have been made; we review some of them here, together with presenting some of the scenarios which present difficulties to the standard version. Recent results in both theoretical and observational SETI studies, especially the G-hat infrared survey (2014-2015), have persuasively shown that the emphasis on detectability inherent in Kardashev's classification obtains new significance and freshness. Several new movements and conceptual frameworks, such as the Dysonian SETI, tally extremely well with these developments. So, the apparent simplicity of the classification is highly deceptive: Kardashev's work offers a wealth of still insufficiently studied methodological and epistemological ramifications and it remains, in both letter and spirit, perhaps the worthiest legacy of the SETI "founding fathers".

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2010

Cellular Automation of Galactic Habitable Zone

We present a preliminary results of our Galactic Habitable Zone (GHZ) 2D probabilistic cellular automata models. The relevant time-scales (emergence of life, it's diversification and evolution influenced with the global risk function) are modeled as the probability matrix elements and are chosen in accordance with the Copernican principle to be well-represented by the data inferred from the Earth's fossil record. With Fermi's paradox as a main boundary condition the resulting histories of astrobiological landscape are discussed.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2009

Galactic Punctuated Equilibrium: How to Undermine Carter's Anthropic Argument in Astrobiology

We investigate a new strategy which can defeat the (in)famous Carter's "anthropic" argument against extraterrestrial life and intelligence. In contrast to those already considered by Wilson, Livio, and others, the present approach is based on relaxing hidden uniformitarian assumptions, considering instead a dynamical succession of evolutionary regimes governed by both global (Galaxy-wide) and local (planet- or planetary system-limited) regulation mechanisms. This is in accordance with recent developments in both astrophysics and evolutionary biology. Notably, our increased understanding of the nature of supernovae and gamma-ray bursts, as well as of strong coupling between the Solar System and the Galaxy on one hand, and the theories of "punctuated equilibria" of Eldredge and Gould and "macroevolutionary regimes" of Jablonski, Valentine, et al. on the other, are in full accordance with the regulation- mechanism picture. The application of this particular strategy highlights the limits of application of Carter's argument, and indicates that in the real universe its applicability conditions are not satisfied. We conclude that drawing far-reaching conclusions about the scarcity of extraterrestrial intelligence and the prospects of our efforts to detect it on the basis of this argument is unwarranted.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2009

Fermi's Paradox - The Last Challenge for Copernicanism?

We review Fermi's paradox (or the "Great Silence" problem), not only arguably the oldest and crucial problem for the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI), but also a conundrum of profound scientific, philosophical and cultural importance. By a simple analysis of observation selection effects, the correct resolution of Fermi's paradox is certain to tell us something about the future of humanity. Already a more than three quarters of a century old puzzle - and a quarter of century since the last major review paper in the field by G. David Brin - Fermi's paradox has generated many ingenious discussions and hypotheses. We analyze the often tacit methodological assumptions built into various answers to this puzzle and attempt a new classification of the numerous solutions proposed in an already huge literature on the subject. Finally, we consider the ramifications of various classes of hypotheses for the practical SETI projects. Somewhat paradoxically, it seems that the class of (neo)catastrophic hypotheses gives, on balance, the strongest justification for guarded optimism regarding our current and near-future SETI efforts.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2008

Against the Empire

It is argued that the "generic" evolutionary pathway of advanced technological civilizations are more likely to be optimization-driven than expansion-driven, in contrast to the prevailing opinions and attitudes in both future studies on one side and astrobiology/SETI studies on the other. Two toy-models of postbiological evolution of advanced technological civilizations are considered and several arguments supporting the optimization-driven, spatially compact model are briefly discussed. In addition, it is pointed out that there is a subtle contradiction in most of the tech-optimist and transhumanist accounts of future human/alien civilizations' motivations in its postbiological stages. This may have important ramifications for both practical SETI projects and the future (of humanity) studies.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2007

Evolutionary Catastrophes and the Goldilocks Problem

One of the mainstays of the controversial "rare Earth" hypothesis is the "Goldilocks problem" regarding various parameters describing a habitable planet, partially involving the role of mass extinctions and other catastrophic processes in biological evolution. Usually, this is construed as support for the uniqueness of the Earth's biosphere and intelligent human life. Here I argue that this is a misconstrual and that, on the contrary, observation-selection effects, when applied to catastrophic processes, make it very difficult for us to discern whether the terrestrial biosphere and evolutionary processes which created it are exceptional in the Milky Way or not. In particular, an anthropic overconfidence bias related to the temporal asymmetry of evolutionary processes appears when we try to straightforwardly estimate catastrophic risks from the past records on Earth. This agnosticism, in turn, supports the validity and significance of practical astrobiological and SETI research.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2006

Macroengineering in the Galactic Context: A New Agenda for Astrobiology

We hereby consider the problem of detectability of macro-engineering projects over interstellar distances, in the context of Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI). Freeman J. Dyson and his imaginative precursors, like Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, Olaf Stapledon or John B. S. Haldane, suggested macro-engineering projects as focal points in the context of extrapolations about the future of humanity and, by analogy, other intelligent species in the Milky Way. We emphasize that the search for signposts of extraterrestrial macro-engineering projects is not an optional pursuit within the family of ongoing and planned SETI projects; inter alia, the failure of the orthodox SETI thus far clearly indicates this. Instead, this approach (for which we suggest a name of "Dysonian") should be the front-line and mainstay of any cogent SETI strategy in future, being significantly more promising than searches for directed, intentional radio or microwave emissions. This is in accord with our improved astrophysical understanding of the structure and evolution of the Galactic Habitable Zone, as well as with the recent wake-up call of Steven J. Dick to investigate consequences of postbiological evolution for astrobiology in general and SETI programs in particular. The benefits this multidisciplinary approach may bear for astrobiologists, evolutionary theorists and macro-engineers are also briefly highlighted.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2005

Galactic Gradients, Postbiological Evolution and the Apparent Failure of SETI

Motivated by recent developments impacting our view of Fermi's paradox (absence of extraterrestrials and their manifestations from our past light cone), we suggest a reassessment of the problem itself, as well as of strategies employed by SETI projects so far. The need for such reevaluation is fueled not only by the failure of searches thus far, but also by great advances recently made in astrophysics, astrobiology, computer science and future studies, which have remained largely ignored in SETI practice. As an example of the new approach, we consider the effects of the observed metallicity and temperature gradients in the Milky Way on the spatial distribution of hypothetical advanced extraterrestrial intelligent communities. While, obviously, properties of such communities and their sociological and technological preferences are entirely unknown, we assume that (1) they operate in agreement with the known laws of physics, and (2) that at some point they typically become motivated by a meta-principle embodying the central role of information-processing; a prototype of the latter is the recently suggested Intelligence Principle of Steven J. Dick. There are specific conclusions of practical interest to be drawn from coupling of these reasonable assumptions with the astrophysical and astrochemical structure of the Galaxy. In particular, we suggest that the outer regions of the Galactic disk are most likely locations for advanced SETI targets, and that intelligent communities will tend to migrate outward through the Galaxy as their capacities of information-processing increase, for both thermodynamical and astrochemical reasons. This can also be regarded as a possible generalization of the Galactic Habitable Zone, concept currently much investigated in astrobiology.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2005

Too Early? On the Apparent Conflict of Astrobiology and Cosmology

An interesting consequence of the modern cosmological paradigm is the spatial infinity of the universe. When coupled with naturalistic understanding of the origin of life and intelligence, which follows the basic tenets of astrobiology, and with some fairly incontroversial assumptions in the theory of observation selection effects, this infinity leads, as Ken Olum has recently shown, to a paradoxical conclusion. Olum's paradox is related, to the famous Fermi's paradox in astrobiology and SETI studies. We, hereby, present an evolutionary argument countering the apparent inconsistency, and show how, in the framework of a simplified model, deeper picture of the coupling between histories of intelligent/technological civilizations and astrophysical evolution of the Galaxy, can be achieved. This strategy has consequences of importance for both astrobiological studies and philosophy.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2005

The Anthropic Principle and the Duration of the Cosmological Past

The place of an anthropic argument in the discrimination between various cosmological models is to be reconsidered following the classic criticisms of Paul C. W. Davies and Frank J. Tipler. Different versions of the anthropic argument against cosmologies involving an infinite series of past events are analyzed and applied to several instructive instances. This is not only of historical significance but presents an important topic for the future of cosmological research if some of the contemporary inflationary models, particularly Linde's chaotic inflation, turn out to be correct. Cognitive importance of the anthropic principle(s) to the issue of extraterrestrial intelligent observers is reconsidered in this light and several related problems facing cosmologies with past temporal infinities are also clearly defined. This issue is not only a clear example of the epistemological significance of the anthropic principle, but also has consequences for such diverse topics as SETI studies, epistemological status of cosmological concepts, theory of observation selection effects, and history of astronomy.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2004

Is Quantum Suicide Painless? On an Apparent Violation of The Principal Principle

The experimental setup of the self-referential quantum measurement, jovially known as the "quantum suicide" or the "quantum Russian roulette" is analyzed from the point of view of the Principal Principle of David Lewis. It is shown that the apparent violation of this principle--relating objective probabilities and subjective chance--in this type of thought experiment is just an illusion due to the usage of some terms and concepts ill-defined in the quantum context. We conclude that even in the case that Everett's (or some other "no-collapse") theory is a correct description of reality, we can coherently believe in equating subjective credence with objective chance in quantum-mechanical experiments. This is in agreement with results of the research on personal identity in the quantum context by Parfit and Tappenden.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2004

"Permanence" - An Adaptationist Solution to Fermi's Paradox?

A new solution of Fermi's paradox sketched by SF writer Karl Schroeder in his 2002. novel "Permanence" is critically investigated. It is argued that this solution is tightly connected with adaptationism - a widely discussed working hypothesis in evolutionary biology. Schroeder's hypothesis has important ramifications for astrobiology, SETI projects, and future studies. Its weaknesses should be explored without succumbing to the emotional reactions often accompanying adaptationist explanations.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2004

Three's a Crowd: On Causes, Entropy, and Physical Eschatology

Recent discussions of the origins of the thermodynamical asymmetry ("the arrow of time") by Huw Price and others are critically assessed. This serves as a motivation for consideration of relationship between thermodynamical and cosmological causes. Although the project of clarification of the thermodynamical explanandum is certainly welcome, Price excludes another interesting option, at least as viable as the sort of Acausal-Particular approach he favors, and arguably more in the spirit of Boltzmann himself. Thus, the competition of explanatory projects includes three horses, not two. In addition, it is the Acausal-Particular approach that could benefit enormously from dissociation from fanciful ideas of low-entropy future boundary conditions entertained by Price. Novel revolutionary developments in observational cosmology, as well as in the nascent astrophysical discipline of physical eschatology, have obliterated such hypotheses. Also, the Acausal-Anthropic approach we propose, offers another clear instance of disteleological nature of the anthropic principle.

physics.class-ph↗