arXiv subjects

Milind Tambe

Publications and source records attributed to Milind Tambe.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Beyond Listenership: AI-Predicted Interventions Drive Improvements in Maternal Health Behaviours

Automated voice calls with health information are a proven method for disseminating maternal and child health information among beneficiaries and are deployed in several programs around the world. However, these programs often suffer from beneficiary dropoffs and poor engagement. In previous work, through real-world trials, we showed that an AI model, specifically a restless bandit model, could identify beneficiaries who would benefit most from live service call interventions, preventing dropoffs and boosting engagement. However, one key question has remained open so far: does such improved listenership via AI-targeted interventions translate into beneficiaries' improved knowledge and health behaviors? We present a first study that shows not only listenership improvements due to AI interventions, but also simultaneously links these improvements to health behavior changes. Specifically, we demonstrate that AI-scheduled interventions, which enhance listenership, lead to statistically significant improvements in beneficiaries' health behaviors such as taking iron or calcium supplements in the postnatal period, as well as understanding of critical health topics during pregnancy and infancy. This underscores the potential of AI to drive meaningful improvements in maternal and child health.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Navigating the Social Welfare Frontier: Portfolios for Multi-objective Reinforcement Learning

In many real-world applications of reinforcement learning (RL), deployed policies have varied impacts on different stakeholders, creating challenges in reaching consensus on how to effectively aggregate their preferences. Generalized $p$-means form a widely used class of social welfare functions for this purpose, with broad applications in fair resource allocation, AI alignment, and decision-making. This class includes well-known welfare functions such as Egalitarian, Nash, and Utilitarian welfare. However, selecting the appropriate social welfare function is challenging for decision-makers, as the structure and outcomes of optimal policies can be highly sensitive to the choice of $p$. To address this challenge, we study the concept of an $α$-approximate portfolio in RL, a set of policies that are approximately optimal across the family of generalized $p$-means for all $p \in [-\infty, 1]$. We propose algorithms to compute such portfolios and provide theoretical guarantees on the trade-offs among approximation factor, portfolio size, and computational efficiency. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in summarizing the policy space induced by varying $p$ values, empowering decision-makers to navigate this landscape more effectively.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

What is the Right Notion of Distance between Predict-then-Optimize Tasks?

Comparing datasets is a fundamental task in machine learning, essential for various learning paradigms-from evaluating train and test datasets for model generalization to using dataset similarity for detecting data drift. While traditional notions of dataset distances offer principled measures of similarity, their utility has largely been assessed through prediction error minimization. However, in Predict-then-Optimize (PtO) frameworks, where predictions serve as inputs for downstream optimization tasks, model performance is measured through decision regret rather than prediction error. In this work, we propose OTD$^3$ (Optimal Transport Decision-aware Dataset Distance), a novel dataset distance that incorporates downstream decisions in addition to features and labels. We show that traditional feature-label distances lack informativeness in PtO settings, while OTD$^3$ more effectively captures adaptation success. We also derive a PtO-specific adaptation bound based on this distance. Empirically, we show that our proposed distance accurately predicts model transferability across three different PtO tasks from the literature. The code is available at https://github.com/paularodr/OTD3.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

LLM-based Agent Simulation for Maternal Health Interventions: Uncertainty Estimation and Decision-focused Evaluation

Agent-based simulation is crucial for modeling complex human behavior, yet traditional approaches require extensive domain knowledge and large datasets. In data-scarce healthcare settings where historic and counterfactual data are limited, large language models (LLMs) offer a promising alternative by leveraging broad world knowledge. This study examines an LLM-driven simulation of a maternal mobile health program, predicting beneficiaries' listening behavior when they receive health information via automated messages (control) or live representatives (intervention). Since uncertainty quantification is critical for decision-making in health interventions, we propose an LLM epistemic uncertainty estimation method based on binary entropy across multiple samples. We enhance model robustness through ensemble approaches, improving F1 score and model calibration compared to individual models. Beyond direct evaluation, we take a decision-focused approach, demonstrating how LLM predictions inform intervention feasibility and trial implementation in data-limited settings. The proposed method extends to public health, disaster response, and other domains requiring rapid intervention assessment under severe data constraints. All code and prompts used for this work can be found at https://github.com/sarahmart/LLM-ABS-ARMMAN-prediction.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Artificial Replay: A Meta-Algorithm for Harnessing Historical Data in Bandits

Most real-world deployments of bandit algorithms exist somewhere in between the offline and online set-up, where some historical data is available upfront and additional data is collected dynamically online. How best to incorporate historical data to "warm start" bandit algorithms is an open question: naively initializing reward estimates using all historical samples can suffer from spurious data and imbalanced data coverage, leading to data inefficiency (amount of historical data used) - particularly for continuous action spaces. To address these challenges, we propose ArtificialReplay, a meta-algorithm for incorporating historical data into any arbitrary base bandit algorithm. We show that ArtificialReplay uses only a fraction of the historical data compared to a full warm-start approach, while still achieving identical regret for base algorithms that satisfy independence of irrelevant data (IIData), a novel and broadly applicable property that we introduce. We complement these theoretical results with experiments on K-armed bandits and continuous combinatorial bandits, on which we model green security domains using real poaching data. Our results show the practical benefits of ArtificialReplay for improving data efficiency, including for base algorithms that do not satisfy IIData.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

The Bandit Whisperer: Communication Learning for Restless Bandits

Applying Reinforcement Learning (RL) to Restless Multi-Arm Bandits (RMABs) offers a promising avenue for addressing allocation problems with resource constraints and temporal dynamics. However, classic RMAB models largely overlook the challenges of (systematic) data errors - a common occurrence in real-world scenarios due to factors like varying data collection protocols and intentional noise for differential privacy. We demonstrate that conventional RL algorithms used to train RMABs can struggle to perform well in such settings. To solve this problem, we propose the first communication learning approach in RMABs, where we study which arms, when involved in communication, are most effective in mitigating the influence of such systematic data errors. In our setup, the arms receive Q-function parameters from similar arms as messages to guide behavioral policies, steering Q-function updates. We learn communication strategies by considering the joint utility of messages across all pairs of arms and using a Q-network architecture that decomposes the joint utility. Both theoretical and empirical evidence validate the effectiveness of our method in significantly improving RMAB performance across diverse problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Reinforcement learning with combinatorial actions for coupled restless bandits

Reinforcement learning (RL) has increasingly been applied to solve real-world planning problems, with progress in handling large state spaces and time horizons. However, a key bottleneck in many domains is that RL methods cannot accommodate large, combinatorially structured action spaces. In such settings, even representing the set of feasible actions at a single step may require a complex discrete optimization formulation. We leverage recent advances in embedding trained neural networks into optimization problems to propose SEQUOIA, an RL algorithm that directly optimizes for long-term reward over the feasible action space. Our approach embeds a Q-network into a mixed-integer program to select a combinatorial action in each timestep. Here, we focus on planning over restless bandits, a class of planning problems which capture many real-world examples of sequential decision making. We introduce coRMAB, a broader class of restless bandits with combinatorial actions that cannot be decoupled across the arms of the restless bandit, requiring direct solving over the joint, exponentially large action space. We empirically validate SEQUOIA on four novel restless bandit problems with combinatorial constraints: multiple interventions, path constraints, bipartite matching, and capacity constraints. Our approach significantly outperforms existing methods -- which cannot address sequential planning and combinatorial selection simultaneously -- by an average of 24.8\% on these difficult instances.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

On Diffusion Models for Multi-Agent Partial Observability: Shared Attractors, Error Bounds, and Composite Flow

Multiagent systems grapple with partial observability (PO), and the decentralized POMDP (Dec-POMDP) model highlights the fundamental nature of this challenge. Whereas recent approaches to addressing PO have appealed to deep learning models, providing a rigorous understanding of how these models and their approximation errors affect agents' handling of PO and their interactions remain a challenge. In addressing this challenge, we investigate reconstructing global states from local action-observation histories in Dec-POMDPs using diffusion models. We first find that diffusion models conditioned on local history represent possible states as stable fixed points. In collectively observable (CO) Dec-POMDPs, individual diffusion models conditioned on agents' local histories share a unique fixed point corresponding to the global state, while in non-CO settings, shared fixed points yield a distribution of possible states given joint history. We further find that, with deep learning approximation errors, fixed points can deviate from true states and the deviation is negatively correlated to the Jacobian rank. Inspired by this low-rank property, we bound a deviation by constructing a surrogate linear regression model that approximates the local behavior of a diffusion model. With this bound, we propose a \emph{composite diffusion process} iterating over agents with theoretical convergence guarantees to the true state.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Rule-Bottleneck Reinforcement Learning: Joint Explanation and Decision Optimization for Resource Allocation with Language Agents

Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) is remarkably effective in addressing sequential resource allocation problems in domains such as healthcare, public policy, and resource management. However, deep RL policies often lack transparency and adaptability, challenging their deployment alongside human decision-makers. In contrast, Language Agents, powered by large language models (LLMs), provide human-understandable reasoning but may struggle with effective decision making. To bridge this gap, we propose Rule-Bottleneck Reinforcement Learning (RBRL), a novel framework that jointly optimizes decision and explanations. At each step, RBRL generates candidate rules with an LLM, selects among them using an attention-based RL policy, and determines the environment action with an explanation via chain-of-thought reasoning. The RL rule selection is optimized using the environment rewards and an explainability metric judged by the LLM. Evaluations in real-world scenarios highlight RBRL's competitive performance with deep RL and efficiency gains over LLM fine-tuning. A survey further confirms the enhanced quality of its explanations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

On Sequential Fault-Intolerant Process Planning

We propose and study a planning problem we call Sequential Fault-Intolerant Process Planning (SFIPP). SFIPP captures a reward structure common in many sequential multi-stage decision problems where the planning is deemed successful only if all stages succeed. Such reward structures are different from classic additive reward structures and arise in important applications such as drug/material discovery, security, and quality-critical product design. We design provably tight online algorithms for settings in which we need to pick between different actions with unknown success chances at each stage. We do so both for the foundational case in which the behavior of actions is deterministic, and the case of probabilistic action outcomes, where we effectively balance exploration for learning and exploitation for planning through the usage of multi-armed bandit algorithms. In our empirical evaluations, we demonstrate that the specialized algorithms we develop, which leverage additional information about the structure of the SFIPP instance, outperform our more general algorithm.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Context in Public Health for Underserved Communities: A Bayesian Approach to Online Restless Bandits

Public health programs often provide interventions to encourage program adherence, and effectively allocating interventions is vital for producing the greatest overall health outcomes, especially in underserved communities where resources are limited. Such resource allocation problems are often modeled as restless multi-armed bandits (RMABs) with unknown underlying transition dynamics, hence requiring online reinforcement learning (RL). We present Bayesian Learning for Contextual RMABs (BCoR), an online RL approach for RMABs that novelly combines techniques in Bayesian modeling with Thompson sampling to flexibly model the complex RMAB settings present in public health program adherence problems, namely context and non-stationarity. BCoR's key strength is the ability to leverage shared information within and between arms to learn the unknown RMAB transition dynamics quickly in intervention-scarce settings with relatively short time horizons, which is common in public health applications. Empirically, BCoR achieves substantially higher finite-sample performance over a range of experimental settings, including a setting using real-world adherence data that was developed in collaboration with ARMMAN, an NGO in India which runs a large-scale maternal mHealth program, showcasing BCoR practical utility and potential for real-world deployment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Multilinguality in LLM-Designed Reward Functions for Restless Bandits: Effects on Task Performance and Fairness

Restless Multi-Armed Bandits (RMABs) have been successfully applied to resource allocation problems in a variety of settings, including public health. With the rapid development of powerful large language models (LLMs), they are increasingly used to design reward functions to better match human preferences. Recent work has shown that LLMs can be used to tailor automated allocation decisions to community needs using language prompts. However, this has been studied primarily for English prompts and with a focus on task performance only. This can be an issue since grassroots workers, especially in developing countries like India, prefer to work in local languages, some of which are low-resource. Further, given the nature of the problem, biases along population groups unintended by the user are also undesirable. In this work, we study the effects on both task performance and fairness when the DLM algorithm, a recent work on using LLMs to design reward functions for RMABs, is prompted with non-English language commands. Specifically, we run the model on a synthetic environment for various prompts translated into multiple languages. The prompts themselves vary in complexity. Our results show that the LLM-proposed reward functions are significantly better when prompted in English compared to other languages. We also find that the exact phrasing of the prompt impacts task performance. Further, as prompt complexity increases, performance worsens for all languages; however, it is more robust with English prompts than with lower-resource languages. On the fairness side, we find that low-resource languages and more complex prompts are both highly likely to create unfairness along unintended dimensions.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Finite-Horizon Single-Pull Restless Bandits: An Efficient Index Policy For Scarce Resource Allocation

Restless multi-armed bandits (RMABs) have been highly successful in optimizing sequential resource allocation across many domains. However, in many practical settings with highly scarce resources, where each agent can only receive at most one resource, such as healthcare intervention programs, the standard RMAB framework falls short. To tackle such scenarios, we introduce Finite-Horizon Single-Pull RMABs (SPRMABs), a novel variant in which each arm can only be pulled once. This single-pull constraint introduces additional complexity, rendering many existing RMAB solutions suboptimal or ineffective. %To address this, we propose using dummy states to duplicate the system, ensuring that once an arm is activated, it transitions exclusively within the dummy states. To address this shortcoming, we propose using \textit{dummy states} that expand the system and enforce the one-pull constraint. We then design a lightweight index policy for this expanded system. For the first time, we demonstrate that our index policy achieves a sub-linearly decaying average optimality gap of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(\frac{1}{ρ^{1/2}}\right)$ for a finite number of arms, where $ρ$ is the scaling factor for each arm cluster. Extensive simulations validate the proposed method, showing robust performance across various domains compared to existing benchmarks.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2024

Towards Foundation-model-based Multiagent System to Accelerate AI for Social Impact

AI for social impact (AI4SI) offers significant potential for addressing complex societal challenges in areas such as public health, agriculture, education, conservation, and public safety. However, existing AI4SI research is often labor-intensive and resource-demanding, limiting its accessibility and scalability; the standard approach is to design a (base-level) system tailored to a specific AI4SI problem. We propose the development of a novel meta-level multi-agent system designed to accelerate the development of such base-level systems, thereby reducing the computational cost and the burden on social impact domain experts and AI researchers. Leveraging advancements in foundation models and large language models, our proposed approach focuses on resource allocation problems providing help across the full AI4SI pipeline from problem formulation over solution design to impact evaluation. We highlight the ethical considerations and challenges inherent in deploying such systems and emphasize the importance of a human-in-the-loop approach to ensure the responsible and effective application of AI systems.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

IRL for Restless Multi-Armed Bandits with Applications in Maternal and Child Health

Public health practitioners often have the goal of monitoring patients and maximizing patients' time spent in "favorable" or healthy states while being constrained to using limited resources. Restless multi-armed bandits (RMAB) are an effective model to solve this problem as they are helpful to allocate limited resources among many agents under resource constraints, where patients behave differently depending on whether they are intervened on or not. However, RMABs assume the reward function is known. This is unrealistic in many public health settings because patients face unique challenges and it is impossible for a human to know who is most deserving of any intervention at such a large scale. To address this shortcoming, this paper is the first to present the use of inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) to learn desired rewards for RMABs, and we demonstrate improved outcomes in a maternal and child health telehealth program. First we allow public health experts to specify their goals at an aggregate or population level and propose an algorithm to design expert trajectories at scale based on those goals. Second, our algorithm WHIRL uses gradient updates to optimize the objective, allowing for efficient and accurate learning of RMAB rewards. Third, we compare with existing baselines and outperform those in terms of run-time and accuracy. Finally, we evaluate and show the usefulness of WHIRL on thousands on beneficiaries from a real-world maternal and child health setting in India. We publicly release our code here: https://github.com/Gjain234/WHIRL.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Contrasting local and global modeling with machine learning and satellite data: A case study estimating tree canopy height in African savannas

While advances in machine learning with satellite imagery (SatML) are facilitating environmental monitoring at a global scale, developing SatML models that are accurate and useful for local regions remains critical to understanding and acting on an ever-changing planet. As increasing attention and resources are being devoted to training SatML models with global data, it is important to understand when improvements in global models will make it easier to train or fine-tune models that are accurate in specific regions. To explore this question, we contrast local and global training paradigms for SatML through a case study of tree canopy height (TCH) mapping in the Karingani Game Reserve, Mozambique. We find that recent advances in global TCH mapping do not necessarily translate to better local modeling abilities in our study region. Specifically, small models trained only with locally-collected data outperform published global TCH maps, and even outperform globally pretrained models that we fine-tune using local data. Analyzing these results further, we identify specific points of conflict and synergy between local and global modeling paradigms that can inform future research toward aligning local and global performance objectives in geospatial machine learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Bayesian Collaborative Bandits with Thompson Sampling for Improved Outreach in Maternal Health Program

Mobile health (mHealth) programs face a critical challenge in optimizing the timing of automated health information calls to beneficiaries. This challenge has been formulated as a collaborative multi-armed bandit problem, requiring online learning of a low-rank reward matrix. Existing solutions often rely on heuristic combinations of offline matrix completion and exploration strategies. In this work, we propose a principled Bayesian approach using Thompson Sampling for this collaborative bandit problem. Our method leverages prior information through efficient Gibbs sampling for posterior inference over the low-rank matrix factors, enabling faster convergence. We demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines on a real-world dataset from the world's largest maternal mHealth program. Our approach achieves a $16\%$ reduction in the number of calls compared to existing methods and a $47$\% reduction compared to the deployed random policy. This efficiency gain translates to a potential increase in program capacity by $0.5-1.4$ million beneficiaries, granting them access to vital ante-natal and post-natal care information. Furthermore, we observe a $7\%$ and $29\%$ improvement in beneficiary retention (an extremely hard metric to impact) compared to state-of-the-art and deployed baselines, respectively. Synthetic simulations further demonstrate the superiority of our approach, particularly in low-data regimes and in effectively utilizing prior information. We also provide a theoretical analysis of our algorithm in a special setting using Eluder dimension.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Escape Sensing Games: Detection-vs-Evasion in Security Applications

Traditional game-theoretic research for security applications primarily focuses on the allocation of external protection resources to defend targets. This work puts forward the study of a new class of games centered around strategically arranging targets to protect them against a constrained adversary, with motivations from varied domains such as peacekeeping resource transit and cybersecurity. Specifically, we introduce Escape Sensing Games (ESGs). In ESGs, a blue player manages the order in which targets pass through a channel, while her opponent tries to capture the targets using a set of sensors that need some time to recharge after each activation. We present a thorough computational study of ESGs. Among others, we show that it is NP-hard to compute best responses and equilibria. Nevertheless, we propose a variety of effective (heuristic) algorithms whose quality we demonstrate in extensive computational experiments.

cs.GT↗