arXiv subjects

Minda Ma

Publications and source records attributed to Minda Ma.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Quantifying real-world energy use and CO2 emissions of electric vehicles via a city-scale bottom-up framework

Although electric vehicles (EVs) are scaling rapidly, city-scale evidence on real-world operational energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from EVs remains limited. Using Shanghai as a case study, this study develops a bottom-up framework covering all EV models registered between July 2022 and December 2024 to quantify model-specific real-world energy intensity, the operational energy mix, and associated CO2 emissions. The results indicate that (1) pronounced and systematic underestimation by test-cycle values: on average, real-world use is 20.8% greater for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and ~55% greater for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), whereas extended-range EVs (EREVs) show the largest gaps, as many models consume 3.75 times more energy than their official data suggest. (2) From 2022-2024, electricity supplies more than 70% of operational energy, and power-sector emissions dominate EV operational CO2, contributing 75.3%, 85.7% and 87.0% in 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively. (3) BEVs achieve the greatest absolute mitigation under current policies, with 1,834 kilotons (kt) of CO2 in 2035, modest benefits from PHEVs, and strong gains for EREVs under more ambitious policies (up to 2,122 kt of CO2 in 2035). These findings underscore the need to align fleet electrification with grid decarbonization, alleviate congestion, improve charging accessibility, and narrow test-cycle versus on-road performance gaps to fully realize the climate benefits of EVs in megacities.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Synergetic capacity planning of private and public EV charging piles via city-scale multiobjective optimization

Rapid electric vehicle (EV) expansion necessitates optimized charging infrastructure to bridge the persistent gaps between vehicle growth and charger availability. This study develops a demand-driven framework for city-scale EV charging demand assessment and charging pile capacity planning. It employs a bottom-up estimation approach to quantify electricity demand and a Harris Hawks Optimization algorithm to solve capacity planning challenges, capturing spatiotemporal demand variations across powertrain types and guiding allocation over 2022-2030 in Chongqing, China. The results show that (1) compared with June 2022, monthly EV electricity consumption tripled to 57.5 gigawatt-hours by the end of 2024, characterized by significant seasonal volatility and a structural shift in which the combined share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and extended-range electric vehicles reached 57.6%, necessitating a transition toward technology-specific infrastructure planning; (2) historical evaluations reveal a marked spatial mismatch, with actual deployment heavily concentrated in the urban core while public charging capacity consistently lagging behind demand, whereas the proposed optimized configuration achieved a superior comprehensive performance score of 0.28, compared to 0.65 for actual deployment, in balancing service adequacy across the "Core-Suburban-Exurban" hierarchy; and (3) by 2030, Chongqing is projected to require approximately 1.8 million charging units to sustain a stable 9:1 private-to-public ratio, a synergetic strategy expects to significantly mitigate urban-rural service disparities and enhance overall system resilience and grid compatibility. Ultimately, this study provides a versatile, spatially explicit tool for policymakers to support sustainable and cost-effective EV infrastructure deployment aligned with long-term electrification targets.

physics.gen-ph↗

arXiv2025

Decarbonizing China's private passenger vehicles: A dynamic material flow assessment of metal demands and embodied emissions

The continuous growth of China's private passenger vehicle fleet has intensified material demand and embodied carbon emissions, underscoring the need for effective decarbonization pathways. This study develops a transferable, dynamic material flow analysis framework to assess vehicle stocks, metal flows (steel, aluminum, and copper), and embodied emissions from 2000 to 2070, and to quantify the contributions of demand-side and technology-side efficiency measures. The results reveal that: (1) The vehicle fleet is projected to peak at 327-507 million vehicles by mid-century, with new energy vehicles dominating both in-use stocks and end-of-life flows by the 2040s. (2) Cumulative metal demand is projected to reach 1914-2990 million tonnes over the upcoming five decades, with 879-1320 million tonnes supplied from secondary sources under baseline conditions. Technology-oriented measures substantially enhance recycling performance, enabling secondary steel to fully meet manufacturing demand and allowing aluminum and copper cycles to approach near closure by 2070. (3) Correspondingly, cumulative embodied carbon emissions from vehicle metals by 2070 range from 4958 to 9218 megatonnes of carbon dioxide, with technological upgrading reducing emissions by 1051-1619 megatonnes. In collaborative scenarios, demand management accounts for 64.3% of total emission reductions, while technology-oriented measures become increasingly important over the medium to long term. Overall, the findings demonstrate that unmanaged demand growth can substantially offset technological mitigation gains, highlighting the necessity of integrated demand- and technology-oriented strategies. This study provides a systemic and transferable framework to guide circular economy development and deep decarbonization transitions in vehicle fleets in China and other emerging economies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Tracking enduring urban-rural inequities in residential heating and cooling loads across Chinese provinces

Climate change and rising thermal comfort demand make residential heating and cooling central to building-sector decarbonization. This study presents the first bottom-up modeling framework to estimate residential heating and cooling loads across 30 Chinese provinces. The model, developed using EnergyPlus simulations of representative building prototypes, captures energy consumption patterns in both urban and rural housing over the period 1980-2024. The results indicate that: (1) In 2020, Guangdong recorded the highest cooling loads (76.5 TWh/a urban; 63.0 TWh/a rural). Henan exhibited the highest rural heating load (174.6 TWh/a), while urban heating loads were highest in Liaoning and Shandong. (2) Between 1980 and 2024, average urban cooling loads increased from 12.4 to 15.1 kWh/m2 a, whereas rural cooling loads declined from 22.63 to 19.87 kWh/m2 a. Urban heating loads decreased from 44.08 to 39.92 kWh/m2 a, and rural heating loads declined more markedly from 100.15 to 72.42 kWh/m2 a. (3) Urban residential floor area has exceeded rural stock in 22 provinces in recent years, compared with only four provinces in 2000. Moreover, the existence of 12 urban energy-efficiency standards versus a single rural standard highlights persistent envelope-performance disparities. These structural and regulatory differences have produced sustained urban-rural divergence in residential heating and cooling demand. The proposed framework provides a replicable basis for region-specific clean heating strategies and differentiated building standards to support carbon neutrality.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

City-level energy and emission assessment based on 20+ million electric vehicle registrations in China

China, the world's largest electric vehicle (EV) market, plays a pivotal role in global decarbonization of the transport sector. We present the first high-resolution assessment of EV adoption in 295 cities, utilizing more than 20 million registrations of 586 EV models tracked monthly from 2022 to 2024 and projecting transition pathways to 2035. Real-world data reveal that EVs are 30.9-212.8 megajoules per 100 km more energy efficient than internal combustion vehicles, yet their carbon intensities range from 18.2 to 270.4 gCO2/km among provinces. The limited electrification of hybrids means that gasoline still accounts for 44% of EV energy use. Scenario projections suggest that emissions will peak about 2030 at 21.1-30.9 megatonnes of CO2 and decline by 2035 under continued market transition. The findings establish an empirical foundation for accurate emissions accounting, emphasize the need to reduce regional disparities in adoptability, and offer globally relevant insights for road-transport decarbonization.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Planning future charging infrastructure for private EVs: A city-scale assessment of demand and capacity

This study proposes the first demand-driven, multi-objective planning model for optimizing city-scale capacity allocation of EV charging infrastructure. The model employs a bottom-up approach to estimate charging demand differentiated by vehicle type-battery electric vehicles (BEVs), extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Chongqing, a rapidly expanding EV industry cluster in China with a strong industrial base, supportive policies, and diverse urban morphologies, is selected as the case study. The results show that (1) monthly EV electricity consumption in Chongqing rose from 18.9 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in June 2022 to 57.5 GWh in December 2024, with associated carbon emissions increasing from 9.9 kilotons of carbon dioxide (ktCO2) to 30 ktCO2; (2) 181,622 additional charging piles were installed between 2022 and 2024, with the fastest growth observed in Yubei, reflecting a demand-responsive strategy that prioritizes areas with higher population density, higher income levels, and adequate land availability for pile deployment, rather than broad geographic coverage; and (3) between 2025 and 2030, EV electricity demand is projected to reach 1940 GWh, with the number of charging piles exceeding 1.4 million, and charging demand from EREVs and PHEVs expected to overtake BEVs later in the period. While Chongqing serves as the pilot area, the proposed planning platform is adaptable for application in cities worldwide, enabling cross-regional comparisons under diverse socio-economic, geographic, and policy conditions. Overall, this work offers policymakers a versatile tool to support sustainable, cost-effective EV infrastructure deployment aligned with low-carbon electrification targets in the transportation sector.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Paving the way to carbon neutrality: Evaluating the decarbonization of residential building electrification worldwide

In the context of increasing global climate change, decarbonizing the residential building sector is crucial for sustainable development. This study aims to analyze the role of various influencing factors in carbon intensity changes using the decomposing structural decomposition (DSD) to assess and compare the potential and effectiveness of electrifying end-use activities during the operational phase of residential buildings worldwide for decarbonization. The results show that (1) while the electrification rate varied in its impact on emissions across different countries and regions, the overall increase in electrification contributed to higher carbon intensity. In contrast, changes in the emission factor of electricity generally made a positive contribution to emission reduction globally. (2) The global electrification level has significantly increased, with the electrification rate rising from 29.9% in 2000 to 40.1% in 2021. A 39.8% increase in the electricity-related carbon emissions of global residential buildings was observed, increasing from 1452 MtCO2 to 2032 MtCO2, 2000-2021. (3) From 2000 to 2021, electrification of space heating was the main contributor to carbon reduction, whereas the contributions of electrification to cooling and lighting were relatively limited. Emission reductions from appliances and others remained stable. The electrification of water heating and cooking had varying effects on emission reductions in different countries. Furthermore, this study proposes a series of electrification decarbonization strategies. Overall, this study analyzes and contrasts decarbonization efforts from building electrification at the global and regional levels, explores the key motivations behind these efforts to aid national net-zero emission targets and accelerate the transition of the global residential building sector toward a carbon-neutral future.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Building floorspace and stock measurement: A review of global efforts, knowledge gaps, and research priorities

Despite a substantial body of research-evidenced by our analysis of 2,628 peer-reviewed papers-global building floorspace data remain fragmented, inconsistent, and methodologically diverse. The lack of high-quality and openly accessible datasets poses major challenges to accurately assessing building carbon neutrality. This review focuses on global building floorspace, especially its nexus with energy and emissions. The key research areas include energy modeling, emissions analysis, building retrofits, and life cycle assessments. Each measurement approach-top-down, bottom-up, and hybrid-has its own limitations: top-down methods provide broad estimates but low accuracy, whereas bottom-up approaches are more precise but data intensive. Our simulations reveal a surge in floorspace growth across emerging economies-most notably in India, Indonesia, and Africa-with India's per capita floorspace projected to triple by 2070. We emphasize the need for a high-resolution global floorspace imagery database to compare energy efficiency, track decarbonization progress, and assess renovation impacts while promoting building sufficiency and accelerating the transition to net-zero building systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Assessing provincial carbon budgets for residential buildings to advance net-zero ambitions

Assessing provincial carbon budgets for residential building operations is a crucial strategy for advancing China's net-zero ambitions. This study develops an advanced assessment framework that integrates static and dynamic modeling to evaluate emission pathways and carbon budgets for residential buildings at the provincial level. The framework provides a practical tool for generating robust carbon budget estimates with limited data, thereby enhancing its applicability for policy-oriented planning. Findings show that (1) in the business-as-usual scenario, the emissions for urban and rural residential buildings are projected to peak at 990 (+-0.7) and 450 (+-0.2) mega-tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO2), respectively, with peak years occurring in 2031 (+-4.7) and 2026 (+-2.6). (2) In the decarbonization scenario, peak emissions decrease to 900 MtCO2 and 430 MtCO2 for urban and rural buildings, respectively. (3) The provinces with the highest emission reduction requirements are Henan (16.74 MtCO2), Xinjiang (12.59 MtCO2), Gansu (9.87 MtCO2), Hebei (8.46 MtCO2), and Guangdong (3.37 MtCO2), with Northwest China shouldering the greatest reduction responsibility, totaling 38.14 MtCO2. In conclusion, this study provides a dynamically optimized carbon budget assessment tool for residential buildings, offering valuable insights for government policy-making and playing a key role in facilitating the low-carbon transition of China's building sector during the pre-2030 planning period, ultimately contributing to the goal of achieving net-zero emissions in the building sector by mid-century.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Provincial allocation of China's commercial building operational carbon towards carbon neutrality

National carbon peak track and optimized provincial carbon allocations are crucial for mitigating regional inequality within the commercial building sector during China's transition to carbon neutrality. This study proposes a top-down model to evaluate carbon trajectories in operational commercial buildings up to 2060. Through Monte Carlo simulation, scenario analysis is conducted to assess carbon peak values and the corresponding peaking year, thereby optimizing carbon allocation schemes both nationwide and provincially. The results reveal that (1) the nationwide carbon peak for commercial building operations is projected to reach 890 (+- 50) megatons of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) by 2028 (+- 3.7 years) in the case of the business-as-usual scenario, with a 7.87% probability of achieving the carbon peak under the decarbonization scenario. (2) Significant disparities will exist among provinces, with Shandong's carbon peak projected at 69.6 (+- 4.0) MtCO2 by 2029, approximately 11 times higher than Ningxia's peak of 6.0 (+- 0.3) MtCO2 by 2027. (3) Guided by the principle of maximizing the emission reduction potential, the optimal provincial allocation scheme reveals the top three provinces requiring the most significant reductions in the commercial sector: Xinjiang (5.6 MtCO2), Shandong (4.8 MtCO2), and Henan (4.7 MtCO2). Overall, this study offers optimized provincial carbon allocation strategies within the commercial building sector in China via dynamic scenario simulations, with the goal of hitting the carbon peak target and progressing toward a low-carbon future for the building sector.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

India's residential space cooling transition: Decarbonization ambitions since the turn of millennium

As an emerging emitter poised for significant growth in space cooling demand, India requires comprehensive insights into historical emission trends and decarbonization performance to shape future low-carbon cooling strategies. By integrating a bottom-up demand resource energy analysis model and a top-down decomposition method, this study is the first to conduct a state-level analysis of carbon emission trends and the corresponding decarbonization efforts for residential space cooling in urban and rural India from 2000 to 2022. The results indicate that (1) the carbon intensity of residential space cooling in India increased by 292.4% from 2000 to 2022, reaching 513.8 kilograms of carbon dioxide per household. The net state domestic product per capita, representing income, emerged as the primary positive contributor. (2) The increase in carbon emissions from space cooling can be primarily attributed to the use of fans. While fan-based space cooling has nearly saturated Indian urban households, it is anticipated to persist as the primary cooling method in rural households for decades. (3) States with higher decarbonization potential are concentrated in two categories: those with high household income and substantial cooling appliance ownership and those with pronounced unmet cooling demand but low household income and hot climates. Furthermore, it is believed that promoting energy-efficient building designs can be prioritized to achieve affordable space cooling. Overall, this study serves as an effective foundation for formulating and promoting India's future cooling action plan, addressing the country's rising residential cooling demands and striving toward its net-zero goal by 2070.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Estimation of Global Building Stocks by 2070: Unlocking Renovation Potential

Buildings produce one-third of carbon emissions globally, however, data absence regarding global floorspace poses challenges in advancing building carbon neutrality. We compile the measured building stocks for 14 major economies and apply our global building stock model, GLOBUS, to evaluate future trends in stock turnover. Based on a scenario not considering renovation, by 2070 the building stock in developed economies will be ~1.4 times that of 2020 (100 billion m2); in developing economies it is expected to be 2.2 times that of 2020 (313 billion m2). Based on a techno-economic potential scenario, however, stocks in developed economies will decline to approximately 0.8 times the 2020 level, while stocks in developing economies will increase to nearly twice the 2020 level due to their fewer buildings currently. Overall, GLOBUS provides a way of calculating the global building stock, helping scientists, engineers, and policymakers conduct a range of investigation across various future scenarios.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

GLOBUS: Global building renovation potential by 2070

Surpassing the two large emission sectors of transportation and industry, the building sector accounted for 34% and 37% of global energy consumption and carbon emissions in 2021, respectively. The building sector, the final piece to be addressed in the transition to net-zero carbon emissions, requires a comprehensive, multisectoral strategy for reducing emissions. Until now, the absence of data on global building floorspace has impeded the measurement of building carbon intensity (carbon emissions per floorspace) and the identification of ways to achieve carbon neutrality for buildings. For this study, we develop a global building stock model (GLOBUS) to fill that data gap. Our study's primary contribution lies in providing a dataset of global building stock turnover using scenarios that incorporate various levels of building renovation. By unifying the evaluation indicators, the dataset empowers building science researchers to perform comparative analyses based on floorspace. Specifically, the building stock dataset establishes a reference for measuring carbon emission intensity and decarbonization intensity of buildings within different countries. Further, we emphasize the sufficiency of existing buildings by incorporating building renovation into the model. Renovation can minimize the need to expand the building stock, thereby bolstering decarbonization of the building sector.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Monitoring the carbon emissions transition of global building end-use activity

The building sector is the largest emitter globally and as such is at the forefront of the net-zero emissions pathway. This study is the first to present a bottom-up assessment framework integrated with the decomposing structural decomposition method to evaluate the emission patterns and decarbonization process of global residential building operations and commercial building operation simultaneously over the last two decades. The results reveal that (1) the average carbon intensity of global commercial building operations has maintained an annual decline of 1.94% since 2000, and emission factors and industrial structures were generally the key to decarbonizing commercial building operations; (2) the operational carbon intensity of global residential buildings has maintained an annual decline of 1.2% over the past two decades, and energy intensity and average household size have been key to this decarbonization; and (3) the total decarbonization of commercial building operations and residential buildings worldwide was 230.28 and 338.1 mega-tons of carbon dioxide per yr, respectively, with a decarbonization efficiency of 10.05% and 9.4%. Overall, this study assesses the global historical progress in decarbonizing global building operations and closes the relevant gap, and it helps plan the stepwise carbon neutral pathway of future global buildings by the mid-century.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Bottom-up approach to assess carbon emissions of battery electric vehicle operations in China

The transportation sector is the third-largest global energy consumer and emitter, making it a focal point in the transition toward the net-zero future. To accelerate the decarbonization of passenger cars, this work is the first to propose a bottom-up charging demand model to estimate the operational electricity use and associated carbon emissions of best-selling battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in various climate zones in China during the 2020s. The findings reveal that (1) the operational energy demand of the top-20 selling BEV models in China, such as Tesla, Wuling Hongguang, and BYD, increased from 601 to 3054 giga-watt hours (GWh) during 2020-2022, with BEVs in South China contributing more than half of the total electricity demand; (2) from 2020 to 2022, the energy and carbon intensities of the best-selling models decreased from 1364 to 1095 kilowatt-hour per vehicle and from 797 to 621 kilograms of carbon dioxide (CO2) per vehicle, respectively, with North China experiencing the highest intensity decline compared to that in other regions; and (3) the operational energy demand of BEV stocks in China increased from 4774 to 12,048 GWh during 2020-2022, while the carbon emissions of BEV stocks rose to 6.8 mega-tons of CO2 in 2022, reflecting an annual growth rate of ~50%. In summary, this work delves into the examination and contrast of benchmark data on a nation-regional scale, as well as performance metrics related to BEV chargings. The primary aim is to support nationwide efforts in decarbonization, aiming for carbon mitigation and facilitating the swift evolution of passenger cars toward a carbon-neutral future.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Decarbonization analysis on residential end uses in the emerging economies

This study explores the historical emission patterns and decarbonization efforts of China and India, the largest emerging emitters in residential building operations. Using a novel carbon intensity model and structural decomposition approach, it assesses the operational decarbonization progress over the past two decades. Results show significant decarbonization, with China and India collectively reducing 1498.3 and 399.7 MtCO2, respectively. Electrification notably contributed to decarbonizing space cooling and appliances in both countries.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

China's plug-in hybrid electric vehicle transition: an operational carbon perspective

Assessing the emissions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) operations is crucial for accelerating the carbon-neutral transition in the passenger car sector. This study is the first to adopt a bottom-up model to measure the real-world energy use and carbon dioxide emissions of China's top twenty selling PHEV models across different regions from 2020 to 2022. The results indicate that (1) the actual electricity intensity of the best-selling PHEV models (20.2-38.2 kWh/100 km) was 30-40% higher than the New European Driving Cycle values, and the actual gasoline intensity (4.7-23.5 L/100 km) was 3-6 times greater than the New European Driving Cycle values. (2) The overall energy use of the best-selling models varied among different regions, and the energy use from 2020 to 2022 in Southern China was double that Northern China and the Yangtze River Middle Reach. (3) The top-selling models emitted 4.7 megatons of carbon dioxide nationwide from 2020 to 2022, with 1.9 megatons released by electricity consumption and 2.8 megatons released by gasoline combustion. Furthermore, targeted policy implications for expediting the carbon-neutral transition within the passenger car sector are proposed. In essence, this study explores and compares benchmark data at both the national and regional levels, along with performance metrics associated with PHEV operations. The main objective is to aid nationwide decarbonization efforts, focusing on carbon reduction and promoting the rapid transition of road transportation toward a net-zero carbon future.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Decarbonization patterns of residential building operations in China and India

As the two largest emerging emitters with the highest growth in operational carbon from residential buildings, the historical emission patterns and decarbonization efforts of China and India warrant further exploration. This study aims to be the first to present a carbon intensity model considering end-use performances, assessing the operational decarbonization progress of residential building in India and China over the past two decades using the improved decomposing structural decomposition approach. Results indicate (1) the overall operational carbon intensity increased by 1.4% and 2.5% in China and India, respectively, between 2000 and 2020. Household expenditure-related energy intensity and emission factors were crucial in decarbonizing residential buildings. (2) Building electrification played a significant role in decarbonizing space cooling (-87.7 in China and -130.2 kilograms of carbon dioxide (kgCO2) per household in India) and appliances (-169.7 in China and -43.4 kgCO2 per household in India). (3) China and India collectively decarbonized 1498.3 and 399.7 mega-tons of CO2 in residential building operations, respectively. In terms of decarbonization intensity, India (164.8 kgCO2 per household) nearly caught up with China (182.5 kgCO2 per household) in 2020 and is expected to surpass China in the upcoming years, given the country's robust annual growth rate of 7.3%. Overall, this study provides an effective data-driven tool for investigating the building decarbonization potential in China and India, and offers valuable insights for other emerging economies seeking to decarbonize residential buildings in the forthcoming COP28 age.

econ.GN↗