arXiv subjects

Mine Caglar

Publications and source records attributed to Mine Caglar.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2021

Backward Monge Potential and Monge-Ampere Equation

In this paper, Monge-Kantorovich problem is considered in the infinite dimension on an abstract Wiener space $(W, H,μ)$, where $H$ is Cameron-Martin space and $μ$ is the Gaussian measure. We study the regularity of optimal transport maps with a quadratic cost function assuming that both initial and target measures have a strictly positive Radon-Nikodym density with respect to $μ$. Under conditions on the density functions, the forward and backward transport maps can be written in terms of Sobolev derivative of so-called Monge-Brenier maps, or Monge potentials. We show Sobolev regularity of the backward potential under the assumption that the density of the initial measure is log-concave and prove that it solves Monge-Ampere equation.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

An optimal stopping problem for spectrally negative Markov additive processes

Previous authors have considered optimal stopping problems driven by the running maximum of a spectrally negative Lévy process $X$, as well as of a one-dimensional diffusion. Many of the aforementioned results are either implicitly or explicitly dependent on Peskir's maximality principle. In this article, we are interested in understanding how some of the main ideas from these previous works can be brought into the setting of problems driven by the maximum of a class of Markov additive processes (more precisely Markov modulated Lévy processes). Similarly to previous works in the Lévy setting, the optimal stopping boundary is characterised by a system of ordinary first-order differential equations, one for each state of the modulating component of the Markov additive process. Moreover, whereas scale functions played an important role in the previously mentioned work, we work instead with scale matrices for Markov additive processes here. We exemplify our calculations in the setting of the Shepp-Shiryaev optimal stopping problem, as well as a family of capped maximum optimal stopping problems.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Hedging Portfolio for a Degenerate Market Model

We consider a semimartingale market model when the underlying diffusion has a singular volatility matrix and compute the hedging portfolio for a given payoff function. Recently, the representation problem for such degenerate diffusions with respect to a minimal martingale has been completely settled. This martingale representation and Malliavin calculus established further for the functionals of a degenerate diffusion process constitute the basis of the present work. Using the Clark-Hausmann-Bismut-Ocone type representation formula derived for these functionals, we prove a version of this formula under an equivalent martingale measure. This allows us to derive the hedging portfolio as a solution of a system of linear equations. The uniqueness of the solution is achieved by a projection idea that lies at the core of the martingale representation at the first place. We demonstrate the hedging strategy as explicitly as possible with some examples of the payoff function such as those used in exotic options, whose value at maturity depends on the prices over the entire time horizon.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Conditional Law and Occupation Times of Two-Sided Sticky Brownian Motion

Sticky Brownian motion on the real line can be obtained as a weak solution of a system of stochastic differential equations. We find the conditional distribution of the process given the driving Brownian motion, both at an independent exponential time and at a fixed time t>0. As a classical problem, we find the distribution of the occupation times of a half-line, and at 0, which is the sticky point for the process.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Maximum loss and maximum gain of spectrally negative Levy processes

The joint distribution of the maximum loss and the maximum gain is obtained for a spectrally negative Levy process until the passage time of a given level. Their marginal distributions up to an independent exponential time are also provided. The existing formulas for Brownian motion with drift are recovered using the particular scale functions.Keywords Maximum drawdown Maximum drawup Spectrally negative Reflected process Fluctuation theory

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Path Decomposition of Spectrally Negative Levy Processes

Path decomposition is performed to analyze the pre-supremum, post-supremum, post-infimum and the intermediate processes of a spectrally negative Levy process taken up to an independent exponential time T as motivated by the aim of finding the joint distribution of the maximum loss and maximum gain. In addition, the joint distribution of the supremum and the infimum before an exponential time is displayed. As an application of path decomposition, the distributions of supremum of the post-infimum process and the maximum loss of the post-supremum process are obtained.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

A buffer Hawkes process for limit order books

We introduce a Markovian single point process model, with random intensity regulated through a buffer mechanism and a self-exciting effect controlling the arrival stream to the buffer. The model applies the principle of the Hawkes process in which point process jumps generate a shot-noise intensity field. Unlike the Hawkes case, the intensity field is fed into a separate buffer, the size of which is the driving intensity of new jumps. In this manner, the intensity loop portrays mutual-excitation of point process events and buffer size dynamics. This scenario is directly applicable to the market evolution of limit order books, with buffer size being the current number of limit orders and the jumps representing the execution of market orders. We give a branching process representation of the point process and prove that the scaling limit is Brownian motion with explicit volatility.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

Cinlar Subgrid Scale Model for Large Eddy Simulation

We construct a new subgrid scale (SGS) stress model for representing the small scale effects in large eddy simulation (LES) of incompressible flows. We use the covariance tensor for representing the Reynolds stress and include Clark's model for the cross stress. The Reynolds stress is obtained analytically from Cinlar random velocity field, which is based on vortex structures observed in the ocean at the subgrid scale. The validity of the model is tested with turbulent channel flow computed in OpenFOAM. It is compared with the most frequently used Smagorinsky and one-equation eddy SGS models through DNS data.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2014

Analysis of Push-type Epidemic Data Dissemination in Fully Connected Networks

Consider a fully connected network of nodes, some of which have a piece of data to be disseminated to the whole network. We analyze the following push-type epidemic algorithm: in each push round, every node that has the data, i.e., every infected node, randomly chooses $c \in {\mathbb Z}_+$ other nodes in the network and transmits, i.e., pushes, the data to them. We write this round as a random walk whose each step corresponds to a random selection of one of the infected nodes; this gives recursive formulas for the distribution and the moments of the number of newly infected nodes in a push round. We use the formula for the distribution to compute the expected number of rounds so that a given percentage of the network is infected and continue a numerical comparison of the push algorithm and the pull algorithm (where the susceptible nodes randomly choose peers) initiated in an earlier work. We then derive the fluid and diffusion limits of the random walk as the network size goes to $\infty$ and deduce a number of properties of the push algorithm: 1) the number of newly infected nodes in a push round, and the number of random selections needed so that a given percent of the network is infected, are both asymptotically normal 2) for large networks, starting with a nonzero proportion of infected nodes, a pull round infects slightly more nodes on average 3) the number of rounds until a given proportion $λ$ of the network is infected converges to a constant for almost all $λ\in (0,1)$. Numerical examples for theoretical results are provided.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

Distribution of Maximum Loss for Fractional Brownian Motion

In finance, the price of a volatile asset can be modeled using fractional Brownian motion (fBm) with Hurst parameter $H>1/2.$ The Black-Scholes model for the values of returns of an asset using fBm is given as, [Y_t=Y_0 \exp{((r+μ)t+σB_t^H)}, t\geq 0], where $Y_0$ is the initial value, $r$ is constant interest rate, $μ$ is constant drift and $σ$ is constant diffusion coefficient of fBm, which is denoted by $(B_t^H)$ where $t \geq 0.$ Black-Scholes model can be constructed with some Markov processes such as Brownian motion. The advantage of modeling with fBm to Markov proccesses is its capability of exposing the dependence between returns. The real life data for a volatile asset display long-range dependence property. For this reason, using fBm is a more realistic model compared to Markov processes. Investors would be interested in any kind of information on the risk in order to manage it or hedge it. The maximum possible loss is one way to measure highest possible risk. Therefore, it is an important variable for investors. In our study, we give some theoretical bounds on the distribution of maximum possible loss of fBm. We provide both asymptotical and strong estimates for the tail probability of maximum loss of standard fBm and fBm with drift and diffusion coefficients. In the investment point of view, these results explain, how large values of possible loss behave and its bounds.

math.PR↗

arXiv2011

Stock Price Processes with Infinite Source Poisson Agents

We construct a general stochastic process and prove weak convergence results. It is scaled in space and through the parameters of its distribution. We show that our simplified scaling is equivalent to time scaling used frequently. The process is constructed as an integral with respect to a Poisson random measure which governs several parameters of trading agents in the context of stock prices. When the trading occurs more frequently and in smaller quantities, the limit is a fractional Brownian motion. In contrast, a stable Levy motion is obtained if the rate of trading decreases while its effect rate increases.

math.PR↗