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Ming Jin

Publications and source records attributed to Ming Jin.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2026

Sonar-TS: Search-Then-Verify Natural Language Querying for Time Series Databases

Natural Language Querying for Time Series Databases (NLQ4TSDB) aims to assist non-expert users retrieve meaningful events, intervals, and summaries from massive temporal records. However, existing Text-to-SQL methods are not designed for continuous morphological intents such as shapes or anomalies, while time series models struggle to handle ultra-long histories. To address these challenges, we propose Sonar-TS, a neuro-symbolic framework that tackles NLQ4TSDB via a Search-Then-Verify pipeline. Analogous to active sonar, it utilizes a feature index to ping candidate windows via SQL, followed by generated Python programs to lock on and verify candidates against raw signals. To enable effective evaluation, we introduce NLQTSBench, the first large-scale benchmark designed for NLQ over TSDB-scale histories. Our experiments highlight the unique challenges within this domain and demonstrate that Sonar-TS effectively navigates complex temporal queries where traditional methods fail. This work presents the first systematic study of NLQ4TSDB, offering a general framework and evaluation standard to facilitate future research.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Large Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data: A Survey and Outlook

Temporal data, including time series and spatio-temporal data, are pervasive in real-world applications. Generated in massive volumes by physical and virtual sensors, they record dynamic system behaviors and enable a wide range of downstream tasks. Effectively analyzing such data is crucial to unlocking their rich information content. Recent advances in large language models and other foundation models have accelerated their use in time series and spatio-temporal data mining. These approaches not only improve pattern recognition and reasoning across diverse domains but also support progress toward artificial general intelligence that can understand and process temporal data. In this survey, we present a comprehensive, up-to-date review of large models tailored or adapted for time series and spatio-temporal data along four dimensions: data types, model categories, model scopes, and application areas/tasks. We organize existing work into two main groups: large models for time series analysis (LM4TS) and for spatio-temporal data mining (LM4STD), and further distinguish general-purpose from domain-specific models. We also curate related resources, including datasets, model implementations, and tools, organized by major application areas. Overall, this survey consolidates recent advances and highlights foundations, applications, resources, and open research opportunities in large model-centric temporal data analysis.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

The Mirrored Influence Hypothesis: Efficient Data Influence Estimation by Harnessing Forward Passes

Large-scale black-box models have become ubiquitous across numerous applications. Understanding the influence of individual training data sources on predictions made by these models is crucial for improving their trustworthiness. Current influence estimation techniques involve computing gradients for every training point or repeated training on different subsets. These approaches face obvious computational challenges when scaled up to large datasets and models. In this paper, we introduce and explore the Mirrored Influence Hypothesis, highlighting a reciprocal nature of influence between training and test data. Specifically, it suggests that evaluating the influence of training data on test predictions can be reformulated as an equivalent, yet inverse problem: assessing how the predictions for training samples would be altered if the model were trained on specific test samples. Through both empirical and theoretical validations, we demonstrate the wide applicability of our hypothesis. Inspired by this, we introduce a new method for estimating the influence of training data, which requires calculating gradients for specific test samples, paired with a forward pass for each training point. This approach can capitalize on the common asymmetry in scenarios where the number of test samples under concurrent examination is much smaller than the scale of the training dataset, thus gaining a significant improvement in efficiency compared to existing approaches. We demonstrate the applicability of our method across a range of scenarios, including data attribution in diffusion models, data leakage detection, analysis of memorization, mislabeled data detection, and tracing behavior in language models. Our code will be made available at https://github.com/ruoxi-jia-group/Forward-INF.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Proxy Reward Internalization and Mechanistic Exploitation: A Learned Precursor to Reward Hacking and Its Generalization

Reward hacking is usually studied after it becomes visible, once a model earns high proxy reward while failing the intended task. We instead study what proxy RL teaches before that failure appears. We introduce Proxy Reward Internalization and Mechanistic Exploitation (PRIME), a learned capability to assess task correctness, predict proxy acceptance, and reason about exploitable proxy--gold gaps. In coding RL environments with exploitable pytest rewards, we measure PRIME through chain-of-thought monitoring, direct probes, and activation-level concept vectors. We find that PRIME emerges in a staged sequence before sustained reward hacking, and that its current direct-probe score forecasts later hack onset and severity even when the visible hack rate is still low. PRIME also adapts when the evaluator changes, retargeting to whichever proxy--gold gap remains rewarded and persisting when gold reward suppresses overt hacking, and ablating its activation directions reduces hacking. Across checkpoints, in-domain PRIME tracks out-of-domain misalignment. Together these results suggest that exploitable proxy RL amplifies a proxy-internalization capability upstream of visible hacking, making PRIME a candidate early-warning signal for broader alignment risk.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

It's TIME: Towards the Next Generation of Time Series Forecasting Benchmarks

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are revolutionizing the forecasting landscape from specific dataset modeling to generalizable task evaluation. However, we contend that existing benchmarks exhibit common limitations in four dimensions: constrained data composition dominated by reused legacy sources, compromised data integrity lacking rigorous quality assurance, misaligned task formulations detached from real-world contexts, and rigid analysis perspectives that obscure generalizable insights. To bridge these gaps, we introduce TIME, a next-generation task-centric benchmark comprising 50 fresh datasets and 98 forecasting tasks, tailored for strict zero-shot TSFM evaluation free from data leakage. Integrating large language models and human expertise, we establish a human-in-the-loop benchmark construction pipeline to ensure high data integrity and redefine task formulation by aligning forecasting configurations with real-world operational requirements and variate predictability. Furthermore, we propose a novel pattern-level evaluation perspective that moves beyond traditional dataset-level evaluations based on static meta labels. By leveraging structural time series features to characterize intrinsic temporal properties, this approach offers generalizable insights into model capabilities across diverse patterns. We evaluate 12 TSFMs and establish a multi-granular leaderboard to facilitate in-depth analysis and visualized inspection. The leaderboard is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Real-TSF/TIME-leaderboard.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

TimeOmni-VL: Unified Models for Time Series Understanding and Generation

Recent time series modeling faces a sharp divide between numerical generation and semantic understanding, with research showing that generation models often rely on superficial pattern matching, while understanding-oriented models struggle with high-fidelity numerical output. Although unified multimodal models (UMMs) have bridged this gap in vision, their potential for time series remains untapped. We propose TimeOmni-VL, the first vision-centric framework that unifies time series understanding and generation through two key innovations: (1) Fidelity-preserving bidirectional mapping between time series and images (Bi-TSI), which advances Time Series-to-Image (TS2I) and Image-to-Time Series (I2TS) conversions to ensure near-lossless transformations. (2) Understanding-guided generation. We introduce TSUMM-Suite, a novel dataset consisting of six understanding tasks rooted in time series analytics and coupled with two generation tasks. With a calibrated Chain-of-Thought, TimeOmni-VL is the first to leverage time series understanding as an explicit control signal for high-fidelity generation. Experiments confirm that this unified approach significantly improves semantic understanding and numerical precision, establishing a new frontier for multimodal time series modeling.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

TimeSage-MT: A Multi-Turn Benchmark for Evaluating Agentic Time Series Reasoning

Time series data inform critical decisions across many real-world domains. While large language model (LLM) agents can analyze data through natural language and tools, it remains unclear whether they can conduct reliable time series analysis across multi-turn conversations. Existing benchmarks focus on single-step tasks such as forecasting and anomaly detection, overlooking practical workflows where user goals evolve, agents must build on prior analyses, and conclusions emerge from accumulated evidence. In this work, we introduce TimeSage-MT, a multi-turn benchmark for agentic time series reasoning with 240 tasks and 2,680 dialogue turns across 8 real-world domains, spanning basic exploration to decision-oriented analysis. TimeSage-MT is built through a reproducible pipeline that converts real-world time series data into multi-turn conversations with verifiable answers. It provides a unified evaluation protocol and public leaderboard for comparing time series agentic systems. To demonstrate the benchmark's utility, we evaluate frontier LLMs alongside TimeSage, a novel structured agent equipped with a comprehensive time series skill library. The results show sharp performance drops on decision-oriented tasks, driven by failures in memory, uncertainty handling, and domain-based decision making. TimeSage-MT exposes critical gaps in current agentic reasoning and provides a rigorous foundation for future development.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Parallel Complex Diffusion for Scalable Time Series Generation

Diffusion models learn data distributions indirectly through denoising, making the difficulty of generative modeling closely tied to the dependency structure of data. For time series, strong temporal dependence forces the noise / score estimator to recover highly entangled cross-time relationships, leading to the curse of entanglement. We mitigate this burden by changing the topology of the diffusion space: the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) decomposes temporal dependencies into spectral modes, diagonalizing second-order dependency structure and better aligning the data manifold with isotropic Gaussian noise and homogeneous diffusion dynamics. However, existing frequency-aware diffusion methods mainly use the DFT to design estimator blocks under temporal DDPM/SDE frameworks, while frequency-native diffusion paths face a mathematical barrier from complex-valued dynamics. We propose PaCoDi (Parallel Complex Diffusion), a frequency-native diffusion framework that constructs the diffusion path in the spectral domain while replacing the complex-valued estimator with parallel real-valued estimators for real and imaginary components. Theoretically, we prove the statistical orthogonality of spectral Gaussian noise, establish quadrature forward transitions and conditional reverse factorization, and extend discrete PaCoDi to continuous-time spectral SDEs through a Spectral Wiener Process. We further introduce a Mean Field Theory approximation with an Interactive Correction Branch to handle marginal coupling, and exploit Hermitian symmetry to reduce 50% attention FLOPs without information loss. Extensive experiments on unconditional and conditional time series generation demonstrate superior generative quality and computational efficiency against 5 SOTA baselines in 5 benchmarks, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/RongyaoCai/PaCoDi.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Exposing Vulnerabilities in Explanation for Time Series Classifiers via Dual-Target Attacks

Interpretable time series deep learning systems are often assessed by checking temporal consistency on explanations, implicitly treating this as evidence of robustness. We show that this assumption can fail: Predictions and explanations can be adversarially decoupled, enabling targeted misclassification while the explanation remains plausible and consistent with a chosen reference rationale. We propose TSEF (Time Series Explanation Fooler), a dual-target attack that jointly manipulates the classifier and explainer outputs. In contrast to single-objective misclassification attacks that disrupt explanation and spread attribution mass broadly, TSEF achieves targeted prediction changes while keeping explanations consistent with the reference. Across multiple datasets and explainer backbones, our results consistently reveal that explanation stability is a misleading proxy for decision robustness and motivate coupling-aware robustness evaluations for trustworthy time series tasks.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

SkillBrew: Multi-Objective Curation of Skill Banks for LLM Agents

Retrieval-augmented LLM agents increasingly rely on curated skill banks: collections of reusable textual principles that guide decision making on complex tasks. Existing approaches typically expand these banks in an append-only fashion, continuously adding new skills without removing redundant, outdated, or harmful ones, resulting in inefficient and poorly curated repositories. In this paper, we formulate the skill bank curation as a constrained multi-objective problem: a desirable bank must be useful for the agent, diverse in its content, and provide good coverage of the query distribution. To this end, we introduce SkillBrew, a multi-objective curation framework that formalizes skill bank curation as Pareto-aware optimization under a utility constraint, and solves it via a bi-level propose-then-verify loop. We evaluate our approach on two public benchmarks. Our findings suggest that treating skill banks as objects of principled curation, rather than ever-growing append-only logs, is an important step toward building self-improving LLM agents.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Memory-Induced Tool-Drift in LLM Agents

Modern LLM agents combine long-term memory for personalization with tool-calling interfaces for taking actions in the world -- a combination underpinning contemporary production systems. We study a previously unexamined failure of this combination: when personality-driven biases stored in memory (cost-consciousness, impatience, risk tolerance, etc.) silently affect tool calls in contexts where they are not applicable. We call this memory-induced tool-drift and operationalize it through MEMDRIFT, a benchmark of 105 scenarios spanning five bias dimensions and seven professional domains, generated through an automated adversarial pipeline. Across seven frontier models -- including those with extended reasoning -- biased memories raise deflection scores (a judge-scored measure of parameter deviation from unbiased baselines) by up to $+3.6$ points on a 1--5 scale. Tool-drift persists when memory management is handled by three production memory architectures. The phenomenon affects real-world tools: scanning 6{,}062 tools across 288 verified MCP servers, we flag 608 with susceptible parameters and confirm tool-drift on a validated subset. Mechanistically, biased memories act as implicit steering vectors, pushing activations along the same latent directions as explicit behavioral instructions. They also redistribute attention from task-relevant context toward memory entries with surface-level keyword overlap to the target parameter. Standard defenses -- prompt-based relevance instructions and memory filters -- reduce drift but do not eliminate it. As agents take increasingly consequential actions on a user's behalf, memory-induced tool-drift represents a systematic vulnerability that current safeguards do not address, motivating dedicated defenses at the intersection of memory management and tool-call generation.

cs.CR↗
arXiv2026

AION: Next-Generation Tasks and Practical Harness for Time Series

Time series research is moving beyond fixed forecasting benchmarks toward realistic tasks that combine prediction, contextual reasoning, tool use, and structured decision support. Most benchmarks are built around clean data and short evaluation loops; agents alone may miss temporal constraints, evidence checks, or review before finalizing outputs. We first formalize next-generation time series tasks as three-component tuples consisting of a task file, a workspace, and a validation interface. We then present AION, a time series harness built from six component groups: agents, skills, rules, memory, evaluation, and protocols. In this harness, we use three design principles: temporal grounding, temporal knowledge-grounded reasoning, and reliability mechanisms such as post-experiment analysis and layered review. A Kaggle Store Sales case study shows that the harness produces more detailed process traces, more artifacts, and more review steps than the same base agent operating in OpenCode direct build mode. Taken together, these results argue for a paradigm shift from fixed tasks to realistic ones under real-world constraints.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Finite-Time Markov-Parameter Identification of LTI Systems Using Non-Causal FIR Models: A Unified Framework for Stable and Unstable Systems

We present a finite-time framework for identifying stable and unstable linear time-invariant (LTI) systems from a single closed-loop input-output trajectory. The method does not require knowledge of the stabilizing controller, an intermediate observer, or prior separation of the plant into stable and unstable components. The approach uses a non-causal finite impulse response (FIR) model obtained from a Laurent expansion of the transfer function. In this representation, stable dynamics are captured by causal Markov parameters, while unstable dynamics are captured by non-causal coefficients associated with reverse-time stable evolution. This avoids the growth of causal unstable Markov parameters. A key advantage is that the coefficients multiplying both the input and the process noise remain controlled by stable and reverse-time stable decay rates, rather than by growing forward-time unstable dynamics. To handle closed-loop data, we use the injected excitation as an instrumental variable, which removes the bias caused by correlation between the feedback input and the process noise. Under explicit instrument-strength and closed-loop concentration conditions, we derive a non-asymptotic error bound for the estimated Laurent/FIR Markov parameters with the usual $\mathcal{O}(N^{-1/2})$ statistical rate, up to logarithmic factors and truncation terms. The bound captures the effects of process noise, measurement noise, FIR horizons, closed-loop state moments, and controller-dependent instrument conditioning. Numerical experiments support the finite-time analysis by showing the predicted Markov-parameter convergence rate and illustrating how controller-dependent instrument conditioning affects the sample complexity of closed-loop identification.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2026

Remembering More, Risking More: Longitudinal Safety Risks in Memory-Equipped LLM Agents

Safety evaluations of memory-equipped LLM agents typically measure within-task safety: whether an agent completes a single scenario safely, often under adversarial conditions such as prompt injection or memory poisoning. In deployment, however, a single agent serves many independent tasks over a long horizon, and memory accumulated during earlier tasks can affect behavior on later, unrelated ones. Studying this regime requires evaluation along the temporal dimension across tasks: not whether an agent is safe at any single memory state, but how its safety profile changes as memory accumulates across many independent interactions. We call this failure mode temporal memory contamination. To isolate memory exposure from stream non-stationarity, we introduce a trigger-probe protocol that evaluates a fixed probe set against read-only memory snapshots at varying prefix lengths, together with a NullMemory counterfactual baseline for identifying memory-induced violations. We apply this protocol across three deployment scenarios spanning records, memos, forms, and email correspondence and eight memory architectures, and additionally on Claw-like AI agents, such as OpenClaw, using the platform's native memory mechanism. Memory-enabled agents consistently exceed the NullMemory baseline, and memory-induced violation rates show a robust upward trend with exposure length on both agent classes. Order-randomization experiments indicate that the effect is driven primarily by accumulated content rather than encounter order. Finally, a structural consequence of the event decomposition is that memory-induced risk is detectable from retrieval state before generation, which we confirm with a high-recall diagnostic monitor. Our results argue for treating memory safety as a longitudinal property that requires temporal evaluation, not a single-state property that can be captured by a snapshot.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

How Do Electrocardiogram Models Scale?

While scaling laws have established a fundamental framework for foundation models in natural language processing, their applicability to electrocardiogram (ECG) models remains poorly characterized. Indeed, recent studies do not always yield consistent downstream gains as one increases the model size or pre-training dataset size of ECG models, leaving the exact roles of architectural inductive biases, pre-training paradigms, and expected improvements with size largely unanswered. In this work, we systematically investigate neural and loss-to-loss scaling laws within the ECG domain. By pre-training over $120$ models (ranging from $20$K to $200$M parameters) on the large-scale CODE dataset ($2.3$M records), we decouple the effects of model architecture (ResNet vs. Transformer) and pre-training paradigm, namely supervised learning (SL) versus self-supervised learning (SSL). We found that (i) SL models are data-bottlenecked in-distribution, whereas SSL models scale robustly across both model and data sizes; (ii) for out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, ResNets are $1.3$ to $2.5$ times more parameter-efficient than Transformers, while SSL is up to $16$ times more data-efficient and achieves up to $7.6$ times higher transfer efficiency than SL on unseen clinical tasks; (iii) across the observed scales, ResNet-based models generally achieve the lowest OOD loss, with SSL dominating on unseen clinical tasks and self-supervised Transformers overtaking at very large model sizes. Our results suggest that the path to effective ECG foundation models lies in the strategic alignment of architecture and paradigm rather than brute-force scaling.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

LLMs Should Express Uncertainty Explicitly

Large language models (LLMs) often produce confident yet incorrect answers, which can lead to risky failures in real-world applications. We study whether post-training can make a model's self-assessment explicit: when the model is uncertain, can it be trained to signal so within its own response? A central design question is where in the response this signal should be exposed -- during reasoning, while the answer is still being formed, or at the end, once the answer has been produced. We study both. For end-of-reasoning self-assessment, we train the model to verbalize a confidence score for its response, with the aim of high confidence on correct answers and low confidence on incorrect ones. For during-reasoning self-assessment, we train the model to emit the marker whenever its current reasoning state appears unreliable. Across factual reasoning tasks, both forms sharply reduce overconfident errors while improving answer quality, and both can be used as triggers for retrieval augmented generation (RAG) to improve the final response. We further analyze their internal mechanisms: end-of-reasoning verbalized confidence sharpens a confidence-related structure already present in the pretrained model, whereas during-reasoning emission teaches the model to mark high-risk reasoning steps, with parameter changes concentrated in the model's late layers.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

LeapTS: Rethinking Time Series Forecasting as Adaptive Multi-Horizon Scheduling

Time series forecasting serves as an essential tool for many real-world applications, supporting tasks such as resource optimization and decision-making. Despite significant architectural advancements, most modern models still treat forecasting task as a fixed mapping from history to target horizons. This induces temporal decoupling across future time points and limits the model's ability to adapt to the evolving context as forecasting progresses. In this work, we present LeapTS, a novel framework that reformulates time series forecasting as a dynamic scheduling process over the prediction horizon. Specifically, LeapTS organizes the forecasting process into multi-level decisions using: (1) the hierarchical controller to dynamically select the optimal prediction scale and advancement length at each step, and (2) continuous-time state evolution driven by neural controlled differential equations. Within this process, the controlled update mechanism explicitly couples the irregular temporal dynamics with discrete scheduling feedback. Extensive evaluations on both real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrate that LeapTS improves overall forecasting performance by at least 7.4% while achieving a 2.6$\times$ to 5.3$\times$ inference speedup over representative Transformer-based models. Furthermore, by explicitly tracing the scheduling trajectories, we reveal how the model autonomously adapts its forecasting behavior to capture non-stationary dynamics.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

EventTSF: Event-Aware Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is vital in diverse sectors such as energy and transportation, where non-stationary dynamics are deeply intertwined with external events in other modalities such as texts. However, incorporating natural language-based external events to improve non-stationary forecasting remains largely unexplored, as most approaches still rely on a single modality, resulting in limited contextual knowledge and model underperformance. Enabling fine-grained multimodal interactions between temporal and textual data is challenged by two fundamental issues: (1) the gap in modeling interactions among discrete external events and continuous time series in a unified framework; (2) classical uniform diffusion timestep ignores event-induced non-stationary variability, leading to imbalanced denoising difficulty across diffusion stages. In this work, we propose event-aware non-stationary time series forecasting (EventTSF), an autoregressive diffusion framework that integrates historical time series and textual events via step-wise diffusion. To mitigate the imbalanced denoising difficulty of uniform timestep sampling, EventTSF uses an event-aware flow-matching timestep conditioned on event semantics. Extensive experiments on 7 synthetic and real-world datasets show that EventTSF outperforms 12 non-stationary time series forecasting baselines, achieving average gains of 41.3% in probabilistic forecasting and 27.5% in deterministic forecasting across all evaluation metrics.

cs.LG↗