arXiv subjects

Ming Pan

Publications and source records attributed to Ming Pan.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Hourly U.S.-wide flood simulation beyond the limits of traditional and data-driven models

As increasingly-damaging floods can strike within hours of a storm and in ungauged reaches, hourly network-wide simulation has become critical societal infrastructure. Here we demonstrate a multi-timescale physics-embedded learning model which outperforms the United States' operational system and surpasses AI-based systems at flood peaks. Covering more than 800,000 river reaches of the conterminous U.S., the model elevates median hourly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency at 2,831 gauges to 0.683 from 0.461 for the operational National Water Model v3.0, and narrows flood-peak timing errors from 7-8 hours to 4.5-6 hours. dHBV2.0MTS-MC captures 33% more >=50-year floods than NWM3.0 and 159% more than an operational LSTM baseline. Against recent AI models, overall hourly skill is comparable while rare-flood accuracy is distinctly higher, with relative peak-magnitude error reduced by 34% for >=100-year floods. It combines long-term hydrologic context, short-term shocks, and infiltration excess to resolve extraordinary hourly peaks not visible on a daily plot. Process-model parameters and hourly discharge are produced for every reach, seamlessly covering the continent at 7.2 km2 median resolution. This candidate for the next-generation National Water Model sets a new operational accuracy level for national-scale flood prediction.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2026

A Physics-Informed Fourier-Wavelet Transformer for Multiscale Computational Fluid Dynamics Surrogate Modeling

Physics-informed surrogate models can accelerate computational fluid dynamics simulations. However, many existing methods reproduce global flow patterns more reliably than localized multiscale structures. This study presents a physics-informed Fourier-wavelet transformer for next-step velocity-field reconstruction in real-world flow benchmarks. The proposed formulation combines hybrid Fourier-wavelet spectral encoding with physics-biased self-attention based on partial differential equation residual diagnostics. It also uses self-supervised pretraining through Masked Physics Prediction and Equation Consistency Prediction. The experiments are conducted on two real benchmark cases: cylinder-wake flow and fluid-structure interaction. All approaches are evaluated under a shared local protocol and compared with spectral, transformer-based, operator-learning, and physics-informed neural-network baselines. On the cylinder-wake benchmark, the proposed model achieves the best aggregate accuracy, with an all-channel normalized mean-squared error of 0.05875 and an all-channel Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.97019. On the fluid-structure-interaction benchmark, it gives the lowest all-channel normalized mean-squared error of $2.70 \times 10^{-4}$, compared with $4.02 \times 10^{-4}$ for the strongest baseline. Component-wise field comparisons and scale-separated diagnostics further show stronger recovery of localized wake structures, including near-body, wake-core, and far-wake features. The results demonstrate improved real-world flow reconstruction while maintaining a practical accuracy-cost tradeoff.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2026

MSWEP V3: Machine Learning-Powered Global Precipitation Estimates at 0.1$^\circ$ Hourly Resolution (1979-Present)

We introduce Version 3 (V3) of the gridded near real-time Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) product -- the first fully global, historical machine learning powered precipitation (P) dataset, developed to meet the growing demand for timely and accurate P estimates amid escalating climate challenges. MSWEP V3 provides hourly data at 0.1$^\circ$ resolution from 1979 to the present, continuously updated with a latency of approximately two hours. Development follows a two-stage process. First, baseline P fields are generated using machine learning model stacks that integrate satellite- and (re)analysis-based P and air-temperature products, along with static variables. The models are trained using hourly and daily observations from 15,959 P gauges worldwide. Second, these baseline P fields are corrected using daily and monthly gauge observations from 57,666 and 86,000 stations globally. To assess MSWEP V3's baseline performance, we evaluated 19 (quasi-) global gridded P products -- including both uncorrected and gauge-based products -- using observations from an independent set of 15,958 gauges excluded from the first training stage. The MSWEP V3 baseline achieved a median daily Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.69, outperforming all evaluated products. Other uncorrected products achieved median daily KGE values of 0.61 (ERA5), 0.46 (IMERG-L V7), 0.38 (GSMaP V8), and 0.31 (CHIRP). Using leave-one-out cross-validation, the daily gauge correction was found to improve the median daily correlation by 0.09, constrained by the already strong baseline performance. We anticipate that MSWEP V3 -- accessible at www.gloh2o.org/mswep -- will enable more reliable monitoring, forecasting, and management of water-related risks in a variable and changing climate.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

An Improved YOLOv8 Approach for Small Target Detection of Rice Spikelet Flowering in Field Environments

Accurately detecting rice flowering time is crucial for timely pollination in hybrid rice seed production. This not only enhances pollination efficiency but also ensures higher yields. However, due to the complexity of field environments and the characteristics of rice spikelets, such as their small size and short flowering period, automated and precise recognition remains challenging. To address this, this study proposes a rice spikelet flowering recognition method based on an improved YOLOv8 object detection model. First, a Bidirectional Feature Pyramid Network (BiFPN) replaces the original PANet structure to enhance feature fusion and improve multi-scale feature utilization. Second, to boost small object detection, a p2 small-object detection head is added, using finer feature mapping to reduce feature loss commonly seen in detecting small targets. Given the lack of publicly available datasets for rice spikelet flowering in field conditions, a high-resolution RGB camera and data augmentation techniques are used to construct a dedicated dataset, providing reliable support for model training and testing. Experimental results show that the improved YOLOv8s-p2 model achieves an mAP@0.5 of 65.9%, precision of 67.6%, recall of 61.5%, and F1-score of 64.41%, representing improvements of 3.10%, 8.40%, 10.80%, and 9.79%, respectively, over the baseline YOLOv8. The model also runs at 69 f/s on the test set, meeting practical application requirements. Overall, the improved YOLOv8s-p2 offers high accuracy and speed, providing an effective solution for automated monitoring in hybrid rice seed production.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Distinct hydrologic response patterns and trends worldwide revealed by physics-embedded learning

To track rapid changes within our water sector, Global Water Models (GWMs) need to realistically represent hydrologic systems' response patterns - such as baseflow fraction - but are hindered by their limited ability to learn from data. Here we introduce a high-resolution physics-embedded big-data-trained model as a breakthrough in reliably capturing characteristic hydrologic response patterns ('signatures') and their shifts. By realistically representing the long-term water balance, the model revealed widespread shifts - up to ~20% over 20 years - in fundamental green-blue-water partitioning and baseflow ratios worldwide. Shifts in these response patterns, previously considered static, contributed to increasing flood risks in northern mid-latitudes, heightening water supply stresses in southern subtropical regions, and declining freshwater inputs to many European estuaries, all with ecological implications. With more accurate simulations at monthly and daily scales than current operational systems, this next-generation model resolves large, nonlinear seasonal runoff responses to rainfall ('elasticity') and streamflow flashiness in semi-arid and arid regions. These metrics highlight regions with management challenges due to large water supply variability and high climate sensitivity, but also provide tools to forecast seasonal water availability. This capability newly enables global-scale models to deliver reliable and locally relevant insights for water management.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2024

DRUM: Diffusion-based runoff model for probabilistic flood forecasting

Extreme floods pose escalating risks in a changing climate, yet forecasting remains challenging due to peak flow underestimation and high uncertainty. We introduce DRUM, a diffusion-based probabilistic deep learning approach that advances extreme flood forecasting across representative basins in the contiguous United States. DRUM outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, enhancing nowcasting skill for the top 0.1% of flows in 72.3% of studied basins. Under operational scenarios, DRUM extends reliable lead times by nearly a full day for 20- and 50-year floods. When evaluated with measured precipitation, an ideal condition, recall improves by 0.3-0.4 and the early warning window extends by 2.3 days for 50-year floods. The enhancement potential varies regionally, with precipitation-driven flood zones in the eastern and northwestern U.S. benefiting most, gaining 3-7 days in lead time. These findings highlight the transformative potential of diffusion models as a cutting-edge generative AI technique for advancing hydrology and broader Earth system sciences.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2021

A Prototype Compact Accelerator-based Neutron Source (CANS) for Canada

Canada's access to neutron beams for neutron scattering was significantly curtailed in 2018 with the closure of the National Research Universal (NRU) reactor in Chalk River, Ontario, Canada. New sources are needed for the long-term; otherwise, access will only become harder as the global supply shrinks. Compact Accelerator-based Neutron Sources (CANS) offer the possibility of an intense source of neutrons with a capital cost significantly lower than spallation sources. In this paper, we propose a CANS for Canada. The proposal is staged with the first stage offering a medium neutron-flux, linac-based approach for neutron scattering that is also coupled with a boron neutron capture therapy (BNCT) station and a positron emission tomography (PET) isotope station. The first stage will serve as a prototype for a second stage: a higher brightness, higher cost facility that could be viewed as a national centre for neutron applications.

physics.ins-det↗

arXiv2020

From calibration to parameter learning: Harnessing the scaling effects of big data in geoscientific modeling

The behaviors and skills of models in many geosciences (e.g., hydrology and ecosystem sciences) strongly depend on spatially-varying parameters that need calibration. A well-calibrated model can reasonably propagate information from observations to unobserved variables via model physics, but traditional calibration is highly inefficient and results in non-unique solutions. Here we propose a novel differentiable parameter learning (dPL) framework that efficiently learns a global mapping between inputs (and optionally responses) and parameters. Crucially, dPL exhibits beneficial scaling curves not previously demonstrated to geoscientists: as training data increases, dPL achieves better performance, more physical coherence, and better generalizability (across space and uncalibrated variables), all with orders-of-magnitude lower computational cost. We demonstrate examples that learned from soil moisture and streamflow, where dPL drastically outperformed existing evolutionary and regionalization methods, or required only ~12.5% of the training data to achieve similar performance. The generic scheme promotes the integration of deep learning and process-based models, without mandating reimplementation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Electron Mobility in Polarization-doped Al$\mathrm{_{0-0.2}}$GaN with a Low Concentration Near 10$\mathrm{^{17}}$ cm$\mathrm{^{-3}}$

In this letter, carrier transport in graded Al$\mathrm{_x}$Ga$\mathrm{_{1-x}}$N with a polarization-induced n-type doping as low as ~ 10$\mathrm{^{17}}$ cm$\mathrm{^{-3}}$ is reported. The graded Al$\mathrm{_x}$Ga$\mathrm{_{1-x}}$N is grown by metal organic chemical vapor deposition on a sapphire substrate and a uniform n-type doping without any intentional doping is realized by linearly varying the Al composition from 0% to 20% over a thickness of 600 nm. A compensating center concentration of ~10$\mathrm{^{17}}$ cm$\mathrm{^{-3}}$ was also estimated. A peak mobility of 900 cm$\mathrm{^2}$/V$\mathrm \cdot$s at room temperature is extracted at an Al composition of ~ 7%, which represents the highest mobility achieved in n-Al$\mathrm{_{0.07}}$GaN with a carrier concentration ~10$\mathrm{^{17}}$ cm$\mathrm{^{-3}}$. Comparison between experimental data and theoretical models shows that, at this low doping concentration, both dislocation scattering and alloy scattering are significant in limiting electron mobility; and that a dislocation density of <10$\mathrm{^7}$ cm$\mathrm{^{-2}}$ is necessary to optimize mobility near 10$\mathrm{^{16}}$ cm$\mathrm{^{-3}}$. The findings in this study provide insight in key elements for achieving high mobility at low doping levels in GaN, a critical parameter in design of novel power electronics taking advantage of polarization doping.

cond-mat.mes-hall↗