arXiv subjects

Minghe Shen

Publications and source records attributed to Minghe Shen.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Robust LLM Performance Certification via Constrained Maximum Likelihood Estimation

The ability to rigorously estimate the failure rates of large language models (LLMs) is a prerequisite for their safe deployment. Currently, however, practitioners often face a tradeoff between expensive human gold standards and potentially severely-biased automatic annotation schemes such as "LLM-as-a-Judge" labeling. In this paper, we propose a new, practical, and efficient approach to LLM failure rate estimation based on constrained maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE). Our method integrates three distinct signal sources: (i) a small, high-quality human-labeled calibration set, (ii) a large corpus of LLM-judge annotations, and, most importantly, (iii) additional side information via domain-specific constraints derived from known bounds on judge performance statistics. We validate our approach through a comprehensive empirical study, benchmarking it against state-of-the-art baselines like Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI). Across diverse experimental regimes -- spanning varying judge accuracies, calibration set sizes, and LLM failure rates -- our constrained MLE consistently delivers more accurate and lower-variance estimates than existing methods. By moving beyond the "black-box" use of automated judges to a flexible framework, we provide a principled, interpretable, and scalable pathway towards LLM failure-rate certification.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Noisy but Valid: Robust Statistical Evaluation of LLMs with Imperfect Judges

Reliable certification of Large Language Models (LLMs)-verifying that failure rates are below a safety threshold-is critical yet challenging. While "LLM-as-a-Judge" offers scalability, judge imperfections, noise, and bias can invalidate statistical guarantees. We introduce a "Noisy but Valid" hypothesis testing framework to address this. By leveraging a small human-labelled calibration set to estimate the judge's True Positive and False Positive Rates (TPR/FPR), we derive a variance-corrected critical threshold applied to a large judge-labelled dataset. Crucially, our framework theoretically guarantees finite-sample Type-I error control (validity) despite calibration uncertainty. This distinguishes our work from Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI), positioning our method as a diagnostic tool that explicitly models judge behavior rather than a black-box estimator. Our contributions include: (1) Theoretical Guarantees: We derive the exact conditions under which noisy testing yields higher statistical power than direct evaluation; (2) Empirical Validation: Experiments on Jigsaw Comment, Hate Speech and SafeRLHF confirm our theory; (3) The Oracle Gap: We reveal a significant performance gap between practical methods and the theoretical "Oracle" (perfectly known judge parameters), quantifying the cost of estimation. Specifically, we provide the first systematic treatment of the imperfect-judge setting, yielding interpretable diagnostics of judge reliability and clarifying how evaluation power depends on judge quality, dataset size, and certification levels. Together, these results sharpen understanding of statistical evaluation with LLM judges, and highlight trade-offs among competing inferential tools.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Does RLVR Extend Reasoning Boundaries? Investigating Capability Expansion in Vision-Language Models

Recent studies posit that Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) primarily amplifies behaviors inherent to the pre-training distribution rather than inducing new capabilities, but these insights are predominantly limited to language-only domains, leaving the dynamics of visual-centric spatial reasoning under-explored. To examine the impact of RLVR on the capability boundaries of Vision-Language Models (VLMs), we introduce \textbf{Ariadne}, a controlled framework based on synthetic maze navigation where the reasoning difficulty is precisely regulated by path length and the number of turns. We demonstrate that applying RLVR extends the spatial reasoning boundary, achieving success on problems where the base policy VLM consistently attains $0\%$ accuracy despite increasing pass@k sampling budgets, indicating that the optimized policy successfully navigates search spaces that were effectively unreachable by the base distribution. Furthermore, despite being trained exclusively on synthetic mazes, we evaluate the model on two real-world navigation benchmarks (MapBench and ReasonMap) in a zero-shot setting. The observed improvements in these out-of-domain tasks suggest genuine spatial reasoning capability expansion rather than mere sampling efficiency.

cs.AI↗