arXiv subjects

Minglei Yang

Publications and source records attributed to Minglei Yang.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Score-Based Generative Data Assimilation for Integrating Aggregated Surveillance Data into Agent-Based Models in Epidemic Tracking

Reliable epidemic monitoring often requires inferring regional infection burden and transmission heterogeneity from noisy, spatially aggregated, and potentially sparse surveillance data. Agent-based models (ABMs) are attractive for this task because they represent individual behavior, contact heterogeneity, and localized interventions, but these same features make them difficult to calibrate online. We develop a generative AI-based data-assimilation (GenDA) framework for partially observed epidemic ABMs that estimates both the epidemic state and a heterogeneous parameter field while respecting the gap between observable macrostates and latent agent-level microstates. GenDA combines a training-free, score-based generative update for macrostate correction with a direct parameter update based on macrostate discrepancies, followed by a macro-micro reassignment step that restores consistency with the ABM. In controlled and geographically explicit synthetic experiments, the framework recovers regional epidemic burden, dominant hotspot structures, and effective transmission heterogeneity from aggregated observations, while improving post-assimilation forecasts relative to state-only assimilation.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

Mining Multi-Modality Spatio-Temporal Cues for Video Important Person Identification

Identifying key individuals in video scenes is essential for applications such as automated video editing and intelligent surveillance. Current methods primarily focus on static images and immediate visual cues, overlooking the rich spatio-temporal information in videos. This leads to the phenomenon of Temporal Importance Shift (TIS), wherein individuals deemed significant in early frames may be demoted as the entire temporal context is considered. To address this, we introduce the Video Important Person (VIP) identification task, aimed at automatically identifying the most influential individuals in videos while providing textual rationales. We present Temporal-VIP, a large-scale rationale-annotated dataset consisting of 9,249 video segments across 11 categories with aligned importance rationales. To mitigate TIS, we develop the VIP-Net framework, which includes a Social Cue Encoder (SCE) for extracting multi-modal spatio-temporal cues, a Temporal Importance Rectifier (TIR) for hierarchical cue fusion and cross-modal alignment, and VIP Inference for ranking individuals. Experimental results show that VIP-Net achieves 67.3% accuracy, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art models (37.5%-53.9%) and yielding a mean rationale similarity of 0.63 to ground truth through feature-guided LLM refinement. The dataset and code are available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/yml2002/Temporal-VIP.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

MPEX AI Digital Twins Milestone Report

This is the six month progress report to Fusion Energy Science (FES) and the American Science Cloud (AmSC) on the MPEX AI Digtial Twins project that was started in October 2025. There are two milestones to demonstrate the Artificial Intelligence (AI) advantage for MPEX operations and scientific discovery, that will be completed by June 2026. The first is a Helicon AI Hot-Spot Controller (Sec. 3.1), which is the helicon heating component of the more comprehensive planned MPEX AI Hot Spot Digital Twin (Sec. 3). The second is an E-beam Damage Assessment Digital Twin (Sec. 4.1), which is a reduced electron beam damage modality prototype for the MPEX AI Damage Assessment Digital Twin (Sec. 4). These two phase I milestones are on track for the June demonstration. In addition to these two milestones, progress on configuring the Galaxy software interface for automation, validation and data analysis is reported (Sec. 5). This interface now connects a subset of the main physics simulation codes to DOE HPC resources and will connect to the MPEX data acquisition system so that analysis of data, validation and execution of simulations can be performed by the scientist or by AI-Agents. When AmSC is ready to accept connections and data, Galaxy will be the MPEX interface to AmSC

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2026

MPEX AI Digital Twins

Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2026

Training-free score-based diffusion for parameter-dependent stochastic dynamical systems

Simulating parameter-dependent stochastic differential equations (SDEs) presents significant computational challenges, as separate high-fidelity simulations are typically required for each parameter value of interest. Despite the success of machine learning methods in learning SDE dynamics, existing approaches either require expensive neural network training for score function estimation or lack the ability to handle continuous parameter dependence. We present a training-free conditional diffusion model framework for learning stochastic flow maps of parameter-dependent SDEs, where both drift and diffusion coefficients depend on physical parameters. The key technical innovation is a joint kernel-weighted Monte Carlo estimator that approximates the conditional score function using trajectory data sampled at discrete parameter values, enabling interpolation across both state space and the continuous parameter domain. Once trained, the resulting generative model produces sample trajectories for any parameter value within the training range without retraining, significantly accelerating parameter studies, uncertainty quantification, and real-time filtering applications. The performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated via three numerical examples of increasing complexity, showing accurate approximation of conditional distributions across varying parameter values.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Error estimates of a training-free diffusion model for high-dimensional sampling

Score-based diffusion models are a powerful class of generative models, but their practical use often depends on training neural networks to approximate the score function. Training-free diffusion models provide an attractive alternative by exploiting analytically tractable score functions, and have recently enabled supervised learning of efficient end-to-end generative samplers. Despite their empirical success, the training-free diffusion models lack rigorous and numerically verifiable error estimates. In this work, we develop a comprehensive error analysis for a class of training-free diffusion models used to generate labeled data for supervised learning of generative samplers. By exploiting the availability of the exact score function for Gaussian mixture models, our analysis avoids propagating score-function approximation errors through the reverse-time diffusion process and recovers classical convergence rates for ODE discretization schemes, such as first-order convergence for the Euler method. Moreover, the resulting error bounds exhibit favorable dimension dependence, scaling as $O(d)$ in the $\ell_2$ norm and $O(\log d)$ in the $\ell_\infty$ norm. Importantly, the proposed error estimates are fully numerically verifiable with respect to both time-step size and dimensionality, thereby bridging the gap between theoretical analysis and observed numerical behavior.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

An efficient probabilistic scheme for the exit time probability of $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process

The {\alpha}-stable L\'evy process, commonly used to describe L\'evy flight, is characterized by discontinuous jumps and is widely used to model anomalous transport phenomena. In this study, we investigate the associated exit problem and propose a method to compute the exit time probability, which quantifies the likelihood that a trajectory starting from an initial condition exits a bounded region in phase space within a given time. This estimation plays a key role in understanding anomalous diffusion behavior. The proposed method approximates the {\alpha}-stable process by combining a Brownian motion with a compound Poisson process. The exit time probability is then modeled using a framework based on partial integro-differential equations (PIDEs). The Feynman-Kac formula provides a probabilistic representation of the solution, involving conditional expectations over stochastic differential equations. These expectations are computed via tailored quadrature rules and interpolation techniques. The proposed method achieves first-order convergence in time and offers significant computational advantages over standard Monte Carlo and deterministic approaches. In particular, it avoids assembling and solving large dense linear systems, resulting in improved efficiency. We demonstrate the method's accuracy and performance through two numerical examples, highlighting its applicability to physical transport problems.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

Generative AI Models for Learning Flow Maps of Stochastic Dynamical Systems in Bounded Domains

Simulating stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in bounded domains, presents significant computational challenges due to particle exit phenomena, which requires accurate modeling of interior stochastic dynamics and boundary interactions. Despite the success of machine learning-based methods in learning SDEs, existing learning methods are not applicable to SDEs in bounded domains because they cannot accurately capture the particle exit dynamics. We present a unified hybrid data-driven approach that combines a conditional diffusion model with an exit prediction neural network to capture both interior stochastic dynamics and boundary exit phenomena. Our ML model consists of two major components: a neural network that learns exit probabilities using binary cross-entropy loss with rigorous convergence guarantees, and a training-free diffusion model that generates state transitions for non-exiting particles using closed-form score functions. The two components are integrated through a probabilistic sampling algorithm that determines particle exit at each time step and generates appropriate state transitions. The performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated via three test cases: a one-dimensional simplified problem for theoretical verification, a two-dimensional advection-diffusion problem in a bounded domain, and a three-dimensional problem of interest to magnetically confined fusion plasmas.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Bifidelity Parameter Estimation Using Conditional Diffusion Models

We present a bifidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution. In the Bayesian inference setting, traditional parameter estimation methods rely on repeated simulations of potentially expensive forward models to determine the posterior distribution of the parameter values, which may result in computationally intractable workflows. Furthermore, methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) necessitate rerunning the entire algorithm for each new data observation, further increasing the computational burden. Hence, we propose a novel method for efficiently obtaining posterior distributions of parameter estimates for high-fidelity models given data observations of interest. The method first constructs a low-fidelity, conditional generative model capable of amortized Bayesian inference and hence rapid posterior density approximation over a wide-range of data observations. When higher accuracy is needed for a specific data observation, the method employs adaptive refinement of the density approximation. It uses outputs from the low-fidelity generative model to refine the parameter sampling space, ensuring efficient use of the computationally expensive high-fidelity solver. Subsequently, a high-fidelity, unconditional generative model is trained to achieve greater accuracy in the target posterior distribution. Both low- and high- fidelity generative models enable efficient sampling from the target posterior and do not require repeated simulation of the high-fidelity forward model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method on several numerical examples, including cases with multi-modal densities, as well as an application in plasma physics for a runaway electron simulation model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

A production planning benchmark for real-world refinery-petrochemical complexes

To achieve digital intelligence transformation and carbon neutrality, effective production planning is crucial for integrated refinery-petrochemical complexes. Modern refinery planning relies on advanced optimization techniques, whose development requires reproducible benchmark problems. However, existing benchmarks lack practical context or impose oversimplified assumptions, limiting their applicability to enterprise-wide optimization. To bridge the substantial gap between theoretical research and industrial applications, this paper introduces the first open-source, demand-driven benchmark for industrial-scale refinery-petrochemical complexes with transparent model formulations and comprehensive input parameters. The benchmark incorporates a novel port-stream hybrid superstructure for modular modeling and broad generalizability. Key secondary processing units are represented using the delta-base approach grounded in historical data. Three real-world cases have been constructed to encompass distinct scenario characteristics, respectively addressing (1) a stand-alone refinery without integer variables, (2) chemical site integration with inventory-related integer variables, and (3) multi-period planning. All model parameters are fully accessible. Additionally, this paper provides an analysis of computational performance, ablation experiments on delta-base modeling, and application scenarios for the proposed benchmark.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2024

Conditional Pseudo-Reversible Normalizing Flow for Surrogate Modeling in Quantifying Uncertainty Propagation

We introduce a conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow for constructing surrogate models of a physical model polluted by additive noise to efficiently quantify forward and inverse uncertainty propagation. Existing surrogate modeling approaches usually focus on approximating the deterministic component of physical model. However, this strategy necessitates knowledge of noise and resorts to auxiliary sampling methods for quantifying inverse uncertainty propagation. In this work, we develop the conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow model to directly learn and efficiently generate samples from the conditional probability density functions. The training process utilizes dataset consisting of input-output pairs without requiring prior knowledge about the noise and the function. Our model, once trained, can generate samples from any conditional probability density functions whose high probability regions are covered by the training set. Moreover, the pseudo-reversibility feature allows for the use of fully-connected neural network architectures, which simplifies the implementation and enables theoretical analysis. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis of the conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow model, showing its ability to converge to the target conditional probability density function using the Kullback-Leibler divergence. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we apply it to several benchmark tests and a real-world geologic carbon storage problem.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Diffusion-Model-Assisted Supervised Learning of Generative Models for Density Estimation

We present a supervised learning framework of training generative models for density estimation. Generative models, including generative adversarial networks, normalizing flows, variational auto-encoders, are usually considered as unsupervised learning models, because labeled data are usually unavailable for training. Despite the success of the generative models, there are several issues with the unsupervised training, e.g., requirement of reversible architectures, vanishing gradients, and training instability. To enable supervised learning in generative models, we utilize the score-based diffusion model to generate labeled data. Unlike existing diffusion models that train neural networks to learn the score function, we develop a training-free score estimation method. This approach uses mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimators to directly approximate the score function at any spatial-temporal location in solving an ordinary differential equation (ODE), corresponding to the reverse-time stochastic differential equation (SDE). This approach can offer both high accuracy and substantial time savings in neural network training. Once the labeled data are generated, we can train a simple fully connected neural network to learn the generative model in the supervised manner. Compared with existing normalizing flow models, our method does not require to use reversible neural networks and avoids the computation of the Jacobian matrix. Compared with existing diffusion models, our method does not need to solve the reverse-time SDE to generate new samples. As a result, the sampling efficiency is significantly improved. We demonstrate the performance of our method by applying it to a set of 2D datasets as well as real data from the UCI repository.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

A pseudo-reversible normalizing flow for stochastic dynamical systems with various initial distributions

We present a pseudo-reversible normalizing flow method for efficiently generating samples of the state of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with different initial distributions. The primary objective is to construct an accurate and efficient sampler that can be used as a surrogate model for computationally expensive numerical integration of SDE, such as those employed in particle simulation. After training, the normalizing flow model can directly generate samples of the SDE's final state without simulating trajectories. Existing normalizing flows for SDEs depend on the initial distribution, meaning the model needs to be re-trained when the initial distribution changes. The main novelty of our normalizing flow model is that it can learn the conditional distribution of the state, i.e., the distribution of the final state conditional on any initial state, such that the model only needs to be trained once and the trained model can be used to handle various initial distributions. This feature can provide a significant computational saving in studies of how the final state varies with the initial distribution. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis of the pseudo-reversible normalizing flow model to the target probability density function in the Kullback-Leibler divergence metric. Numerical experiments are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed normalizing flow model.

math.NA↗

arXiv2022

A divergence-free constrained magnetic field interpolation method for scattered data

An interpolation method to evaluate magnetic fields given unstructured, scattered magnetic data is presented. The method is based on the reconstruction of the global magnetic field using a superposition of orthogonal functions. The coefficients of the expansion are obtained by minimizing a cost function defined as the L^2 norm of the difference between the ground truth and the reconstructed magnetic field evaluated on the training data. The divergence-free condition is incorporated as a constrain in the cost function allowing the method to achieve arbitrarily small errors in the magnetic field divergence. An exponential decay of the approximation error is observed and compared with the less favorable algebraic decay of local splines. Compared to local methods involving computationally expensive search algorithms, the proposed method exhibits a significant reduction of the computational complexity of the field evaluation, while maintaining a small error in the divergence even in the presence of magnetic islands and stochasticity. Applications to the computation of Poincaré sections using data obtained from numerical solutions of the magnetohydrodynamic equations in toroidal geometry are presented and compared with local methods currently in use.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2022

A probabilistic scheme for semilinear nonlocal diffusion equations with volume constraints

This work presents a probabilistic scheme for solving semilinear nonlocal diffusion equations with volume constraints and integrable kernels. The nonlocal model of interest is defined by a time-dependent semilinear partial integro-differential equation (PIDE), in which the integro-differential operator consists of both local convection-diffusion and nonlocal diffusion operators. Our numerical scheme is based on the direct approximation of the nonlinear Feynman-Kac formula that establishes a link between nonlinear PIDEs and stochastic differential equations. The exploitation of the Feynman-Kac representation successfully avoids solving dense linear systems arising from nonlocality operators. Compared with existing stochastic approaches, our method can achieve first-order convergence after balancing the temporal and spatial discretization errors, which is a significant improvement of existing probabilistic/stochastic methods for nonlocal diffusion problems. Error analysis of our numerical scheme is established. The effectiveness of our approach is shown in two numerical examples. The first example considers a three-dimensional nonlocal diffusion equation to numerically verify the error analysis results. The second example presents a physics problem motivated by the study of heat transport in magnetically confined fusion plasmas.

math.NA↗

arXiv2022

Performance Analysis and Power Allocation of Joint Communication and Sensing Towards Future Communication Networks

To mitigate the radar and communication frequency overlapping caused by massive devices access, we propose a novel joint communication and sensing (JCS) system in this paper, where a micro base station (MiBS) can realize target sensing and cooperative communication simultaneously. Concretely, the MiBS, as the sensing equipment, can also serve as a full-duplex (FD) decode-and-forward (DF) relay to assist the end-to-end communication. To further improve the spectrum utilization, non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) is adopted such that the communication between the macro base station (MaBS) and the Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices. To facilitate the performance evaluation, the exact and asymptotic outage probabilities, ergodic rates, sensing probability of the system are characterized. Subsequently, two optimal power allocation (OPA) problems of maximizing the received signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio of sensing signal and maximizing the sum rate for communication are designed that are solved by means of the Lagrangian method and function monotonicity. The simulation results demonstrate that: 1) the proposed JCS NOMA system can accomplish both communication enhancement and sensing function under the premise of the same power consumption as non-cooperative NOMA; 2) the proposed OPA schemes manifest superiorities over a random power allocation scheme.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2021

A Feynman-Kac based numerical method for the exit time probability of a class of transport problems

The exit time probability, which gives the likelihood that an initial condition leaves a prescribed region of the phase space of a dynamical system at, or before, a given time, is arguably one of the most natural and important transport problems. Here we present an accurate and efficient numerical method for computing this probability for systems described by non-autonomous (time-dependent) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) or their equivalent Fokker-Planck partial differential equations. The method is based on the direct approximation of the Feynman-Kac formula that establishes a link between the adjoint Fokker-Planck equation and the forward SDE. The Feynman-Kac formula is approximated using the Gauss-Hermite quadrature rules and piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomials, and a GPU accelerated matrix representation is used to compute the entire time evolution of the exit time probability using a single pass of the algorithm. The method is unconditionally stable, exhibits second-order convergence in space, first-order convergence in time, and is straightforward to parallelize. Applications are presented to the advection-diffusion of a passive tracer in a fluid flow exhibiting chaotic advection, and to the runaway acceleration of electrons in a plasma in the presence of an electric field, collisions, and radiation damping. Benchmarks against analytical solutions as well as comparisons with explicit and implicit finite difference standard methods for the adjoint Fokker-Planck equation are presented.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2020

A sparse-grid probabilistic scheme for approximation of the runaway probability of electrons in fusion tokamak simulation

Runaway electrons (RE) generated during magnetic disruptions present a major threat to the safe operation of plasma nuclear fusion reactors. A critical aspect of understanding RE dynamics is to calculate the runaway probability, i.e., the probability that an electron in the phase space will runaway on, or before, a prescribed time. Such probability can be obtained by solving the adjoint equation of the underlying Fokker-Planck equation that controls the electron dynamics. In this effort, we present a sparse-grid probabilistic scheme for computing the runaway probability. The key ingredient of our approach is to represent the solution of the adjoint equation as a conditional expectation, such that discretizing the differential operator reduces to the approximation of a set of integrals. Adaptive sparse grid interpolation is utilized to approximate the map from the phase space to the runaway probability. The main novelties of this effort are the integration of the sparse-grid method into the probabilistic numerical scheme for computing escape probability, as well as the demonstration in computing RE probabilities. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate that the proposed method can achieve $\mathcal{O}(Δt)$ convergence, as well as the adaptive refinement strategy can effectively handle the sharp transition layer between the runaway and non-runaway regions.

physics.comp-ph↗