arXiv subjects

Mingzhi Xiao

Publications and source records attributed to Mingzhi Xiao.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Opportunity-Normalized Residence-Workplace Matching and the Scale-Sensitive Structure of Urban Commuting

Urban spatial structure is commonly evaluated through the spatial distribution of homes and jobs or through aggregate commuting outcomes. Yet these approaches do not reveal how the opportunities created by urban form are selectively transformed into actual residence-workplace connections. This study introduces opportunity-normalized residence-workplace matching by comparing observed commuting distance distributions with opportunity-based distributions constructed from all within-city residence-workplace pairs weighted by residential and employment mass. Using Output Area-level data for nine British cities, we show that realized pairings are systematically more concentrated at shorter distances than the urban opportunity structure alone would predict. After normalization, matching intensity declines with distance in a recurrent but heterogeneous pattern that is approximately linear in log-log space in many cities and can be summarized by a city-specific distance-decay coefficient. London further reveals that this regularity is scale-sensitive: a comparatively flattened citywide pattern separates into consistently negative but heterogeneous relationships across employment-centered subsystems. Supplementary evidence from New York and Chicago shows similar attenuation patterns. These findings identify realized residence-workplace matching as a distinct layer of urban structure and suggest that, in complex metropolitan systems, meaningful spatial regularities may reside in coherent matching fields rather than in aggregate city boundaries.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

The Effectiveness and Limits of Time-of-Use Pricing in Public EV Charging Networks

Time-of-use pricing is promoted to manage demand at public EV charging stations, yet its effectiveness depends on short run flexibility and local constraints. Using station by day by hour data from Shenzhen and Amsterdam, we estimate intraday price responsiveness on two margins, whether charging occurs in a station hour and, conditional on charging, delivered energy and occupancy time. High dimensional fixed effects absorb station by day demand shocks and hour of week patterns, so identification relies on within station, within day price variation under scheduled tariffs. Responses differ across cities. Shenzhen adjusts mainly through conditional intensity, whereas Amsterdam adjusts mainly through participation. Weather shifts responsiveness in opposite directions, with heat weakening responses in Shenzhen and rainfall strengthening participation responses in Amsterdam. Power upgrades typically outperform network densification except in transit-oriented areas.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

A Price to Enter: Anticipatory Housing Market Sorting and Access Inequality under New York's Congestion Pricing

This study examines how congestion pricing shapes housing market outcomes and spatial equity in New York City. Using high-frequency sales and rental data and a combination of propensity score matching difference-in-differences, geographic regression discontinuity, and event study designs, the analysis identifies distinct short-run adjustment patterns triggered by the policy announcement. Housing prices inside the toll zone fell by about 3.3% and rents by 3%, with the sharpest declines occurring immediately after the announcement. These effects weakened over time, and price resilience emerged among premium properties, indicating early market sorting and growing segmentation. The Geo-RDD results show a clear boundary penalty, with properties just inside the cordon experiencing more pronounced declines than otherwise similar properties just outside. Renters and lower-value segments were more exposed to early adjustment pressures, while implementation-stage effects were limited. The findings suggest that congestion pricing can reshape urban space not only by altering mobility incentives but also by redistributing access and opportunity. Equity-oriented design that includes early-stage support for boundary neighborhoods and renters, along with reinvestment of revenues into untolled transit access, is important for ensuring that the benefits of congestion pricing are shared rather than concentrated.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

When Does Tourism Raise Land Prices? Threshold Effects, Superstar Cities, and Policy Lessons from Japan

While tourism is widely regarded as a catalyst for economic and urban transformation, its effects on land prices remain contested. This study examines tourism and land prices using a panel of 1,724 Japanese municipalities from 2021 to 2024, with annual tourist arrivals as a proxy for tourism activity. Using mediation analysis and panel threshold regression, we show that sizable land price increases are concentrated in a small group of "superstar" cities, specifically those in the top 5.9 percent for tourist arrivals, while most municipalities experience little or no effect. The results highlight pronounced nonlinearities and spatial heterogeneity in tourism's economic impact across Japan. The potential mechanisms linking tourism to land price growth are mixed, with possible benefits for local residents as well as risks of increased burdens. These findings underscore the need for policies that promote inclusive growth and an equitable distribution of tourism-related gains.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

The Role of High-Speed Rail in Reshaping Chinese County-Level Economic Structures

As high-speed rail (HSR) investment accelerates across China, the question of whether such large-scale infrastructure can promote balanced regional development or exacerbate spatial inequality has become central for policymakers and scholars. This study provides systematic micro-level evidence by analyzing a balanced panel of 353 county-level divisions, including urban districts, county-level cities, and counties, along the Shanghai-Kunming and Xuzhou-Lanzhou HSR corridors from 2008 to 2019. Using a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) approach, supported by event study and propensity score matching, we quantify the heterogeneous impacts of HSR openings across administrative types and regions, with special attention to the presence of direct HSR station access. The results show that HSR expansion significantly increases secondary and tertiary sector output in urban districts (by 2.77 and 8.71 hundred million RMB) and in county-level cities, particularly in the eastern region. In contrast, counties without HSR stations or with weaker economic foundations experience much smaller gains. Some counties also see a notable contraction in the service sector, which is closely linked to substantial population outflows. Robustness checks confirm the causal interpretation. These findings challenge the prevailing view that HSR fosters uniform growth. Instead, the results reveal that infrastructure-led development can intensify spatial and administrative disparities at the county level. The study underscores the need for integrated and locally tailored policy interventions to ensure that HSR investments contribute to inclusive and sustainable regional development.

econ.GN↗