arXiv subjects

Minqi Jiang

Publications and source records attributed to Minqi Jiang.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond Holistic Models: Systematic Component-level Benchmarking of Deep Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting

While previous research in multivariate time series forecasting has focused on developing complex holistic models, this work advocates for a shift toward a granular, component-level understanding of their impacts. We propose TSCOMP, the first large-scale benchmark that systematically deconstructs deep forecasting methods into their core, fine-grained components--spanning series preprocessing, encoding strategies, network architectures including specific and large time-series models, and optimization methods. Using constrained orthogonal experimental design and extensive evaluations, we conduct multi-view analyses that reveal component effectiveness across different backbones, data characteristics, and their interactions. Beyond providing insights, this benchmark establishes a fine-grained performance corpus comprising over 20,000 model-dataset evaluations, which supports the learning of automated component selection, enabling zero-shot model construction on new datasets. Our experiments demonstrate that the corpus-driven approach, despite its simplicity, consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, validating the soundness of our evaluation design and confirming that systematic component selection surpasses manually designed complex architectures. All code and the performance corpus are publicly available at https://github.com/SUFE-AILAB/TSCOMP.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Rethinking Weak Supervision in Anomaly Detection: A Comprehensive Benchmark

Weakly supervised anomaly detection (WSAD) has developed in three primary directions: incomplete, inexact, and inaccurate supervision. However, these directions remain isolated, lacking a unified framework to assess whether they address unique challenges or share fundamental mechanisms. This paper introduces WSADBench, the first benchmark that unifies evaluation across distinct weakly supervised scenarios, benchmarking diverse approaches from specialized WSAD methods to advanced tabular foundation models. WSADBench establishes standardized protocols to evaluate 36 algorithms across 4 modalities by systematically varying label quantity, granularity, and quality, revealing the performance boundaries of various methods. Based on over 700K experiments, WSADBench reveals four critical insights: (i) Strong intrinsic correlations exist between these weak supervision scenarios, challenging the isolation of current research directions. (ii) Specialized WSAD algorithms excel only in extreme label-scarcity regimes but are quickly dominated by tabular foundation models and general classification methods as supervision increases or in OOD scenarios. (iii) Unlabeled data shows inconsistent utility across settings, with marginal gains compared to label refinement. (iv) Models exhibit asymmetric sensitivity to different types of label noise. We release WSADBench as an open-source benchmark with code and datasets to facilitate future WSAD research: https://github.com/SUFE-AILAB/WSADBench.

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arXiv2026

Hyperagents

Self-improving AI systems aim to reduce reliance on human engineering by learning to improve their own learning and problem-solving processes. Existing approaches to self-improvement rely on fixed, handcrafted meta-level mechanisms, fundamentally limiting how fast such systems can improve. The Darwin G\"odel Machine (DGM) demonstrates open-ended self-improvement in coding by repeatedly generating and evaluating self-modified variants. Because both evaluation and self-modification are coding tasks, gains in coding ability can translate into gains in self-improvement ability. However, this alignment does not generally hold beyond coding domains. We introduce \textbf{hyperagents}, self-referential agents that integrate a task agent (which solves the target task) and a meta agent (which modifies itself and the task agent) into a single editable program. Crucially, the meta-level modification procedure is itself editable, enabling metacognitive self-modification, improving not only the task-solving behavior, but also the mechanism that generates future improvements. We instantiate this framework by extending DGM to create DGM-Hyperagents (DGM-H), eliminating the assumption of domain-specific alignment between task performance and self-modification skill to potentially support self-accelerating progress on any computable task. Across diverse domains, the DGM-H improves performance over time and outperforms baselines without self-improvement or open-ended exploration, as well as prior self-improving systems. Furthermore, the DGM-H improves the process by which it generates new agents (e.g., persistent memory, performance tracking), and these meta-level improvements transfer across domains and accumulate across runs. DGM-Hyperagents offer a glimpse of open-ended AI systems that do not merely search for better solutions, but continually improve their search for how to improve.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

APRES: An Agentic Paper Revision and Evaluation System

Scientific discoveries must be communicated clearly to realize their full potential. Without effective communication, even the most groundbreaking findings risk being overlooked or misunderstood. The primary way scientists communicate their work and receive feedback from the community is through peer review. However, the current system often provides inconsistent feedback between reviewers, ultimately hindering the improvement of a manuscript and limiting its potential impact. In this paper, we introduce a novel method APRES powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) to update a scientific papers text based on an evaluation rubric. Our automated method discovers a rubric that is highly predictive of future citation counts, and integrate it with APRES in an automated system that revises papers to enhance their quality and impact. Crucially, this objective should be met without altering the core scientific content. We demonstrate the success of APRES, which improves future citation prediction by 19.6% in mean averaged error over the next best baseline, and show that our paper revision process yields papers that are preferred over the originals by human expert evaluators 79% of the time. Our findings provide strong empirical support for using LLMs as a tool to help authors stress-test their manuscripts before submission. Ultimately, our work seeks to augment, not replace, the essential role of human expert reviewers, for it should be humans who discern which discoveries truly matter, guiding science toward advancing knowledge and enriching lives.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Asking the Right Questions: Improving Reasoning with Generated Stepping Stones

Recent years have witnessed tremendous progress in enabling LLMs to solve complex reasoning tasks such as math and coding. As we start to apply LLMs to harder tasks that they may not be able to solve in one shot, it is worth paying attention to their ability to construct intermediate stepping stones that prepare them to better solve the tasks. Examples of stepping stones include simplifications, alternative framings, or subproblems. We study properties and benefits of stepping stones in the context of modern reasoning LLMs via ARQ (Asking the Right Questions), a simple framework that introduces a question generator to the default reasoning pipeline. We first show that good stepping stone questions exist and are transferrable, meaning that good questions can be generated, and they substantially help LLMs of various capabilities in solving the target tasks. We next frame stepping stone generation as a post-training task and show that we can fine-tune LLMs to generate more useful stepping stones by SFT and RL on synthetic data.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

TSGym: Design Choices for Deep Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting

Recently, deep learning has driven significant advancements in multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) tasks. However, much of the current research in MTSF tends to evaluate models from a holistic perspective, which obscures the individual contributions and leaves critical issues unaddressed. Adhering to the current modeling paradigms, this work bridges these gaps by systematically decomposing deep MTSF methods into their core, fine-grained components like series-patching tokenization, channel-independent strategy, attention modules, or even Large Language Models and Time-series Foundation Models. Through extensive experiments and component-level analysis, our work offers more profound insights than previous benchmarks that typically discuss models as a whole. Furthermore, we propose a novel automated solution called TSGym for MTSF tasks. Unlike traditional hyperparameter tuning, neural architecture searching or fixed model selection, TSGym performs fine-grained component selection and automated model construction, which enables the creation of more effective solutions tailored to diverse time series data, therefore enhancing model transferability across different data sources and robustness against distribution shifts. Extensive experiments indicate that TSGym significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art MTSF and AutoML methods. All code is publicly available on https://github.com/SUFE-AILAB/TSGym.

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arXiv2025

Generative Data Refinement: Just Ask for Better Data

For a fixed parameter size, the capabilities of large models are primarily determined by the quality and quantity of its training data. Consequently, training datasets now grow faster than the rate at which new data is indexed on the web, leading to projected data exhaustion over the next decade. Much more data exists as user-generated content that is not publicly indexed, but incorporating such data comes with considerable risks, such as leaking private information and other undesirable content. We introduce a framework, Generative Data Refinement (GDR), for using pretrained generative models to transform a dataset with undesirable content into a refined dataset that is more suitable for training. Our experiments show that GDR can outperform industry-grade solutions for dataset anonymization, as well as enable direct detoxification of highly unsafe datasets. Moreover, we show that by generating synthetic data that is conditioned on each example in the real dataset, GDR's refined outputs naturally match the diversity of web scale datasets, and thereby avoid the often challenging task of generating diverse synthetic data via model prompting. The simplicity and effectiveness of GDR make it a powerful tool for scaling up the total stock of training data for frontier models.

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arXiv2025

Bootstrapping Task Spaces for Self-Improvement

Progress in many task domains emerges from repeated revisions to previous solution attempts. Training agents that can reliably self-improve over such sequences at inference-time is a natural target for reinforcement learning (RL), yet the naive approach assumes a fixed maximum iteration depth, which can be both costly and arbitrary. We present Exploratory Iteration (ExIt), a family of autocurriculum RL methods that directly exploits the recurrent structure of self-improvement tasks to train LLMs to perform multi-step self-improvement at inference-time while only training on the most informative single-step iterations. ExIt grows a task space by selectively sampling the most informative intermediate, partial histories encountered during an episode for continued iteration, treating these starting points as new self-iteration task instances to train a self-improvement policy. ExIt can further pair with explicit exploration mechanisms to sustain greater task diversity. Across several domains, encompassing competition math, multi-turn tool-use, and machine learning engineering, we demonstrate that ExIt strategies, starting from either a single or many task instances, can produce policies exhibiting strong inference-time self-improvement on held-out task instances, and the ability to iterate towards higher performance over a step budget extending beyond the average iteration depth encountered during training.

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arXiv2025

AI Research Agents for Machine Learning: Search, Exploration, and Generalization in MLE-bench

AI research agents are demonstrating great potential to accelerate scientific progress by automating the design, implementation, and training of machine learning models. We focus on methods for improving agents' performance on MLE-bench, a challenging benchmark where agents compete in Kaggle competitions to solve real-world machine learning problems. We formalize AI research agents as search policies that navigate a space of candidate solutions, iteratively modifying them using operators. By designing and systematically varying different operator sets and search policies (Greedy, MCTS, Evolutionary), we show that their interplay is critical for achieving high performance. Our best pairing of search strategy and operator set achieves a state-of-the-art result on MLE-bench lite, increasing the success rate of achieving a Kaggle medal from 39.6% to 47.7%. Our investigation underscores the importance of jointly considering the search strategy, operator design, and evaluation methodology in advancing automated machine learning.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

The Automated LLM Speedrunning Benchmark: Reproducing NanoGPT Improvements

Rapid advancements in large language models (LLMs) have the potential to assist in scientific progress. A critical capability toward this endeavor is the ability to reproduce existing work. To evaluate the ability of AI agents to reproduce results in an active research area, we introduce the Automated LLM Speedrunning Benchmark, leveraging the research community contributions on the NanoGPT speedrun, a competition to train a GPT-2 model in the shortest time. Each of the 19 speedrun tasks provides the agent with the previous records training script, optionally paired with one of three hint formats, ranging from pseudocode to paper-like descriptions of the new records improvements. Records execute quickly by design and speedrun improvements encompass diverse code-level changes, ranging from high-level algorithmic advancements to hardware-aware optimizations. These features make the benchmark both accessible and realistic for the frontier problem of improving LLM training. We find that recent reasoning LLMs combined with SoTA scaffolds struggle to reimplement already-known innovations in our benchmark, even when given detailed hints. Our benchmark thus provides a simple, non-saturated measure of an LLMs ability to automate scientific reproduction, a necessary (but not sufficient) skill for an autonomous research agent.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

The 2025 PNPL Competition: Speech Detection and Phoneme Classification in the LibriBrain Dataset

The advance of speech decoding from non-invasive brain data holds the potential for profound societal impact. Among its most promising applications is the restoration of communication to paralysed individuals affected by speech deficits such as dysarthria, without the need for high-risk surgical interventions. The ultimate aim of the 2025 PNPL competition is to produce the conditions for an "ImageNet moment" or breakthrough in non-invasive neural decoding, by harnessing the collective power of the machine learning community. To facilitate this vision we present the largest within-subject MEG dataset recorded to date (LibriBrain) together with a user-friendly Python library (pnpl) for easy data access and integration with deep learning frameworks. For the competition we define two foundational tasks (i.e. Speech Detection and Phoneme Classification from brain data), complete with standardised data splits and evaluation metrics, illustrative benchmark models, online tutorial code, a community discussion board, and public leaderboard for submissions. To promote accessibility and participation the competition features a Standard track that emphasises algorithmic innovation, as well as an Extended track that is expected to reward larger-scale computing, accelerating progress toward a non-invasive brain-computer interface for speech.

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arXiv2024

minimax: Efficient Baselines for Autocurricula in JAX

Unsupervised environment design (UED) is a form of automatic curriculum learning for training robust decision-making agents to zero-shot transfer into unseen environments. Such autocurricula have received much interest from the RL community. However, UED experiments, based on CPU rollouts and GPU model updates, have often required several weeks of training. This compute requirement is a major obstacle to rapid innovation for the field. This work introduces the minimax library for UED training on accelerated hardware. Using JAX to implement fully-tensorized environments and autocurriculum algorithms, minimax allows the entire training loop to be compiled for hardware acceleration. To provide a petri dish for rapid experimentation, minimax includes a tensorized grid-world based on MiniGrid, in addition to reusable abstractions for conducting autocurricula in procedurally-generated environments. With these components, minimax provides strong UED baselines, including new parallelized variants, which achieve over 120$\times$ speedups in wall time compared to previous implementations when training with equal batch sizes. The minimax library is available under the Apache 2.0 license at https://github.com/facebookresearch/minimax.

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arXiv2024

Refining Minimax Regret for Unsupervised Environment Design

In unsupervised environment design, reinforcement learning agents are trained on environment configurations (levels) generated by an adversary that maximises some objective. Regret is a commonly used objective that theoretically results in a minimax regret (MMR) policy with desirable robustness guarantees; in particular, the agent's maximum regret is bounded. However, once the agent reaches this regret bound on all levels, the adversary will only sample levels where regret cannot be further reduced. Although there are possible performance improvements to be made outside of these regret-maximising levels, learning stagnates. In this work, we introduce Bayesian level-perfect MMR (BLP), a refinement of the minimax regret objective that overcomes this limitation. We formally show that solving for this objective results in a subset of MMR policies, and that BLP policies act consistently with a Perfect Bayesian policy over all levels. We further introduce an algorithm, ReMiDi, that results in a BLP policy at convergence. We empirically demonstrate that training on levels from a minimax regret adversary causes learning to prematurely stagnate, but that ReMiDi continues learning.

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arXiv2024

Learning to Act without Actions

Pre-training large models on vast amounts of web data has proven to be an effective approach for obtaining powerful, general models in domains such as language and vision. However, this paradigm has not yet taken hold in reinforcement learning. This is because videos, the most abundant form of embodied behavioral data on the web, lack the action labels required by existing methods for imitating behavior from demonstrations. We introduce Latent Action Policies (LAPO), a method for recovering latent action information, and thereby latent-action policies, world models, and inverse dynamics models, purely from videos. LAPO is the first method able to recover the structure of the true action space just from observed dynamics, even in challenging procedurally-generated environments. LAPO enables training latent-action policies that can be rapidly fine-tuned into expert-level policies, either offline using a small action-labeled dataset, or online with rewards. LAPO takes a first step towards pre-training powerful, generalist policies and world models on the vast amounts of videos readily available on the web.

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arXiv2024

The Generalization Gap in Offline Reinforcement Learning

Despite recent progress in offline learning, these methods are still trained and tested on the same environment. In this paper, we compare the generalization abilities of widely used online and offline learning methods such as online reinforcement learning (RL), offline RL, sequence modeling, and behavioral cloning. Our experiments show that offline learning algorithms perform worse on new environments than online learning ones. We also introduce the first benchmark for evaluating generalization in offline learning, collecting datasets of varying sizes and skill-levels from Procgen (2D video games) and WebShop (e-commerce websites). The datasets contain trajectories for a limited number of game levels or natural language instructions and at test time, the agent has to generalize to new levels or instructions. Our experiments reveal that existing offline learning algorithms struggle to match the performance of online RL on both train and test environments. Behavioral cloning is a strong baseline, outperforming state-of-the-art offline RL and sequence modeling approaches when trained on data from multiple environments and tested on new ones. Finally, we find that increasing the diversity of the data, rather than its size, improves performance on new environments for all offline learning algorithms. Our study demonstrates the limited generalization of current offline learning algorithms highlighting the need for more research in this area.

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arXiv2024

Rainbow Teaming: Open-Ended Generation of Diverse Adversarial Prompts

As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly prevalent across many real-world applications, understanding and enhancing their robustness to adversarial attacks is of paramount importance. Existing methods for identifying adversarial prompts tend to focus on specific domains, lack diversity, or require extensive human annotations. To address these limitations, we present Rainbow Teaming, a novel black-box approach for producing a diverse collection of adversarial prompts. Rainbow Teaming casts adversarial prompt generation as a quality-diversity problem and uses open-ended search to generate prompts that are both effective and diverse. Focusing on the safety domain, we use Rainbow Teaming to target various state-of-the-art LLMs, including the Llama 2 and Llama 3 models. Our approach reveals hundreds of effective adversarial prompts, with an attack success rate exceeding 90% across all tested models. Furthermore, we demonstrate that prompts generated by Rainbow Teaming are highly transferable and that fine-tuning models with synthetic data generated by our method significantly enhances their safety without sacrificing general performance or helpfulness. We additionally explore the versatility of Rainbow Teaming by applying it to question answering and cybersecurity, showcasing its potential to drive robust open-ended self-improvement in a wide range of applications.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Reward-Free Curricula for Training Robust World Models

There has been a recent surge of interest in developing generally-capable agents that can adapt to new tasks without additional training in the environment. Learning world models from reward-free exploration is a promising approach, and enables policies to be trained using imagined experience for new tasks. However, achieving a general agent requires robustness across different environments. In this work, we address the novel problem of generating curricula in the reward-free setting to train robust world models. We consider robustness in terms of minimax regret over all environment instantiations and show that the minimax regret can be connected to minimising the maximum error in the world model across environment instances. This result informs our algorithm, WAKER: Weighted Acquisition of Knowledge across Environments for Robustness. WAKER selects environments for data collection based on the estimated error of the world model for each environment. Our experiments demonstrate that WAKER outperforms several baselines, resulting in improved robustness, efficiency, and generalisation.

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arXiv2024

Multi-Agent Diagnostics for Robustness via Illuminated Diversity

In the rapidly advancing field of multi-agent systems, ensuring robustness in unfamiliar and adversarial settings is crucial. Notwithstanding their outstanding performance in familiar environments, these systems often falter in new situations due to overfitting during the training phase. This is especially pronounced in settings where both cooperative and competitive behaviours are present, encapsulating a dual nature of overfitting and generalisation challenges. To address this issue, we present Multi-Agent Diagnostics for Robustness via Illuminated Diversity (MADRID), a novel approach for generating diverse adversarial scenarios that expose strategic vulnerabilities in pre-trained multi-agent policies. Leveraging the concepts from open-ended learning, MADRID navigates the vast space of adversarial settings, employing a target policy's regret to gauge the vulnerabilities of these settings. We evaluate the effectiveness of MADRID on the 11vs11 version of Google Research Football, one of the most complex environments for multi-agent reinforcement learning. Specifically, we employ MADRID for generating a diverse array of adversarial settings for TiZero, the state-of-the-art approach which "masters" the game through 45 days of training on a large-scale distributed infrastructure. We expose key shortcomings in TiZero's tactical decision-making, underlining the crucial importance of rigorous evaluation in multi-agent systems.

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