arXiv subjects

Minshuo Chen

Publications and source records attributed to Minshuo Chen.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Diffusion Models for Adaptive Sequential Data Generation

Generating realistic synthetic sequential data is critical in real-world applications across operations research, finance, healthcare, energy systems, and scientific computing, where time-indexed observations are used for prediction, simulation, risk assessment, and data-driven decision-making. While diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generating static data, their direct extensions to sequential settings often fail to capture temporal dependence and information structure. Designing diffusion models that can simulate sequential data in an adapted manner, and hence without anticipation of future information, therefore remains an open challenge. In this work, we propose a sequential forward-backward diffusion framework for adapted time series generation. Our approach progressively injects and removes noise along the sequence, conditioning on the previously generated history to ensure adaptiveness. A novel score-matching objective is introduced for efficient parallel training. We derive rigorous statistical guarantees under a generic framework, then establish score approximation, score estimation, and distribution estimation results with ReLU networks serving as a concrete instance. Empirically, we validate our method on synthetic data, including ARMA models and Gaussian processes, and demonstrate its effectiveness in constructing mean-variance optimal portfolios.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

CreFlow: Corrective Reflow for Sparse-Reward Embodied Video Diffusion RL

Video generation models trained on heterogeneous data with likelihood-surrogate objectives can produce visually plausible rollouts that violate physical constraints in embodied manipulation. Although reinforcement-learning post-training offers a natural route to adapting VGMs, existing video-RL rewards often reduce each rollout to a low-level visual metric, whereas manipulation video evaluation requires logic-based verification of whether the rollout satisfies a compositional task specification. To fill this gap, we introduce a compositional constraint-based reward model for post-training embodied video generation models, which automatically formulates task requirements as a composition of Linear Temporal Logic constraints, providing faithful rewards and localized error information in generated videos. To achieve effective improvement in high-dimensional video generation using these reward signals, we further propose CreFlow, a novel online RL framework with two key designs: i) a credit-aware NFT loss that confines the RL update to reward-relevant regions, preventing perturbations to unrelated regions during post-training; and ii) a corrective reflow loss that leverages within-group positive samples as an explicit estimate of the correction direction, stabilizing and accelerating training. Experiments show that CreFlow yields reward judgments better aligned with human and simulator success labels than existing methods and improves downstream execution success by 23.8 percentage points across eight bimanual manipulation tasks.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Diffusion Model for Manifold Data: Score Decomposition, Curvature, and Statistical Complexity

Diffusion models have become a leading framework in generative modeling, yet their theoretical understanding -- especially for high-dimensional data concentrated on low-dimensional structures -- remains incomplete. This paper investigates how diffusion models learn such structured data, focusing on two key aspects: statistical complexity and influence of data geometric properties. By modeling data as samples from a smooth Riemannian manifold, our analysis reveals crucial decompositions of score functions in diffusion models under different levels of injected noise. We also highlight the interplay of manifold curvature with the structures in the score function. These analyses enable an efficient neural network approximation to the score function, built upon which we further provide statistical rates for score estimation and distribution learning. Remarkably, the obtained statistical rates are governed by the intrinsic dimension of data and the manifold curvature. These results advance the statistical foundations of diffusion models, bridging theory and practice for generative modeling on manifolds.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Training-Free Adaptation of Diffusion Models via Doob's $h$-Transform

Adaptation methods have been a workhorse for unlocking the transformative power of pre-trained diffusion models in diverse applications. Existing approaches often abstract adaptation objectives as a reward function and steer diffusion models to generate high-reward samples. However, these approaches can incur high computational overhead due to additional training, or rely on stringent assumptions on the reward such as differentiability. Moreover, despite their empirical success, theoretical justification and guarantees are seldom established. In this paper, we propose DOIT (Doob-Oriented Inference-time Transformation), a training-free and computationally efficient adaptation method that applies to generic, non-differentiable rewards. The key framework underlying our method is a measure transport formulation that seeks to transport the pre-trained generative distribution to a high-reward target distribution. We leverage Doob's $h$-transform to realize this transport, which induces a dynamic correction to the diffusion sampling process and enables efficient simulation-based computation without modifying the pre-trained model. Theoretically, we establish a high probability convergence guarantee to the target high-reward distribution via characterizing the approximation error in the dynamic Doob's correction. Empirically, on D4RL offline RL benchmarks, our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines while preserving sampling efficiency.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Parameter-Efficient Subspace Optimization for LLM Fine-Tuning

This paper develops a new perspective on parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) for LLMs, inspired by classical subspace minimization. We introduce a unifying framework, Parameter-Efficient Subspace Optimization (PESO), which recovers existing methods such as LoRA and connects them to the principled algorithmic and theoretical foundations of subspace optimization. This connection highlights a natural ``exploration--exploitation'' view of subspace methods, guiding the design of new algorithms that achieve strong convergence performance while still preserving memory efficiency. We instantiate the framework into a practical algorithm, PESO-LoRA, based on a LoRA-type parameterization. Importantly, we provide convergence guarantees stated in the full-parameter space for the induced update, addressing a key limitation of LoRA-style analyses that only track low-dimensional factors. Empirically, PESO-LoRA improves over strong PEFT baselines on standard fine-tuning benchmarks.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Diffusion Factor Models: Generating High-Dimensional Returns with Factor Structure

Financial scenario simulation is essential for risk management and portfolio optimization, yet it remains challenging especially in high-dimensional and small data settings common in finance. We propose a diffusion factor model that integrates latent factor structure into generative diffusion processes, bridging econometrics with modern generative AI to address the challenges of the curse of dimensionality and data scarcity in financial simulation. By exploiting the low-dimensional factor structure inherent in asset returns, we decompose the score function--a key component in diffusion models--using time-varying orthogonal projections, and this decomposition is incorporated into the design of neural network architectures. We derive rigorous statistical guarantees, establishing nonasymptotic error bounds for both score estimation at O(d^{5/2} n^{-2/(k+5)}) and generated distribution at O(d^{5/4} n^{-1/2(k+5)}), primarily driven by the intrinsic factor dimension k rather than the number of assets d, surpassing the dimension-dependent limits in the classical nonparametric statistics literature and making the framework viable for markets with thousands of assets. Numerical studies confirm superior performance in latent subspace recovery under small data regimes. Empirical analysis demonstrates the economic significance of our framework in constructing mean-variance optimal portfolios and factor portfolios. This work presents the first theoretical integration of factor structure with diffusion models, offering a principled approach for high-dimensional financial simulation with limited data. Our code is available at https://github.com/xymmmm00/diffusion_factor_model.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2025

Provable Separations between Memorization and Generalization in Diffusion Models

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success across diverse domains, but they remain vulnerable to memorization -- reproducing training data rather than generating novel outputs. This not only limits their creative potential but also raises concerns about privacy and safety. While empirical studies have explored mitigation strategies, theoretical understanding of memorization remains limited. We address this gap through developing a dual-separation result via two complementary perspectives: statistical estimation and network approximation. From the estimation side, we show that the ground-truth score function does not minimize the empirical denoising loss, creating a separation that drives memorization. From the approximation side, we prove that implementing the empirical score function requires network size to scale with sample size, spelling a separation compared to the more compact network representation of the ground-truth score function. Guided by these insights, we develop a pruning-based method that reduces memorization while maintaining generation quality in diffusion transformers.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Diffusion Transformers for Imputation: Statistical Efficiency and Uncertainty Quantification

Imputation methods play a critical role in enhancing the quality of practical time-series data, which often suffer from pervasive missing values. Recently, diffusion-based generative imputation methods have demonstrated remarkable success compared to autoregressive and conventional statistical approaches. Despite their empirical success, the theoretical understanding of how well diffusion-based models capture complex spatial and temporal dependencies between the missing values and observed ones remains limited. Our work addresses this gap by investigating the statistical efficiency of conditional diffusion transformers for imputation and quantifying the uncertainty in missing values. Specifically, we derive statistical sample complexity bounds based on a novel approximation theory for conditional score functions using transformers, and, through this, construct tight confidence regions for missing values. Our findings also reveal that the efficiency and accuracy of imputation are significantly influenced by the missing patterns. Furthermore, we validate these theoretical insights through simulation and propose a mixed-masking training strategy to enhance the imputation performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Diffusion Transformer Captures Spatial-Temporal Dependencies: A Theory for Gaussian Process Data

Diffusion Transformer, the backbone of Sora for video generation, successfully scales the capacity of diffusion models, pioneering new avenues for high-fidelity sequential data generation. Unlike static data such as images, sequential data consists of consecutive data frames indexed by time, exhibiting rich spatial and temporal dependencies. These dependencies represent the underlying dynamic model and are critical to validate the generated data. In this paper, we make the first theoretical step towards bridging diffusion transformers for capturing spatial-temporal dependencies. Specifically, we establish score approximation and distribution estimation guarantees of diffusion transformers for learning Gaussian process data with covariance functions of various decay patterns. We highlight how the spatial-temporal dependencies are captured and affect learning efficiency. Our study proposes a novel transformer approximation theory, where the transformer acts to unroll an algorithm. We support our theoretical results by numerical experiments, providing strong evidence that spatial-temporal dependencies are captured within attention layers, aligning with our approximation theory.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Nonparametric Classification on Low Dimensional Manifolds using Overparameterized Convolutional Residual Networks

Convolutional residual neural networks (ConvResNets), though overparameterized, can achieve remarkable prediction performance in practice, which cannot be well explained by conventional wisdom. To bridge this gap, we study the performance of ConvResNeXts, which cover ConvResNets as a special case, trained with weight decay from the perspective of nonparametric classification. Our analysis allows for infinitely many building blocks in ConvResNeXts, and shows that weight decay implicitly enforces sparsity on these blocks. Specifically, we consider a smooth target function supported on a low-dimensional manifold, then prove that ConvResNeXts can adapt to the function smoothness and low-dimensional structures and efficiently learn the function without suffering from the curse of dimensionality. Our findings partially justify the advantage of overparameterized ConvResNeXts over conventional machine learning models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

On Statistical Rates of Conditional Diffusion Transformers: Approximation, Estimation and Minimax Optimality

We investigate the approximation and estimation rates of conditional diffusion transformers (DiTs) with classifier-free guidance. We present a comprehensive analysis for ``in-context'' conditional DiTs under four common data assumptions. We show that both conditional DiTs and their latent variants lead to the minimax optimality of unconditional DiTs under identified settings. Specifically, we discretize the input domains into infinitesimal grids and then perform a term-by-term Taylor expansion on the conditional diffusion score function under Hölder smooth data assumption. This enables fine-grained use of transformers' universal approximation through a more detailed piecewise constant approximation and hence obtains tighter bounds. Additionally, we extend our analysis to the latent setting under the linear latent subspace assumption. We not only show that latent conditional DiTs achieve lower bounds than conditional DiTs both in approximation and estimation, but also show the minimax optimality of latent unconditional DiTs. Our findings establish statistical limits for conditional and unconditional DiTs, and offer practical guidance toward developing more efficient and accurate DiT models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

A Theoretical Perspective for Speculative Decoding Algorithm

Transformer-based autoregressive sampling has been the major bottleneck for slowing down large language model inferences. One effective way to accelerate inference is \emph{Speculative Decoding}, which employs a small model to sample a sequence of draft tokens and a large model to validate. Given its empirical effectiveness, the theoretical understanding of Speculative Decoding is falling behind. This paper tackles this gap by conceptualizing the decoding problem via markov chain abstraction and studying the key properties, \emph{output quality and inference acceleration}, from a theoretical perspective. Our analysis covers the theoretical limits of speculative decoding, batch algorithms, and output quality-inference acceleration tradeoffs. Our results reveal the fundamental connections between different components of LLMs via total variation distances and show how they jointly affect the efficiency of decoding algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Gradient Guidance for Diffusion Models: An Optimization Perspective

Diffusion models have demonstrated empirical successes in various applications and can be adapted to task-specific needs via guidance. This paper studies a form of gradient guidance for adapting a pre-trained diffusion model towards optimizing user-specified objectives. We establish a mathematical framework for guided diffusion to systematically study its optimization theory and algorithmic design. Our theoretical analysis spots a strong link between guided diffusion models and optimization: gradient-guided diffusion models are essentially sampling solutions to a regularized optimization problem, where the regularization is imposed by the pre-training data. As for guidance design, directly bringing in the gradient of an external objective function as guidance would jeopardize the structure in generated samples. We investigate a modified form of gradient guidance based on a forward prediction loss, which leverages the information in pre-trained score functions and provably preserves the latent structure. We further consider an iteratively fine-tuned version of gradient-guided diffusion where guidance and score network are both updated with newly generated samples. This process mimics a first-order optimization iteration in expectation, for which we proved O(1/K) convergence rate to the global optimum when the objective function is concave. Our code will be released at https://github.com/yukang123/GGDMOptim.git.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Counterfactual Generative Models for Time-Varying Treatments

Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially increased number of possible counterfactual outcomes. Furthermore, in modern applications, the outcomes are high-dimensional and conventional average treatment effect estimation fails to capture disparities in individuals. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel conditional generative framework capable of producing counterfactual samples under time-varying treatment, without the need for explicit density estimation. Our method carefully addresses the distribution mismatch between the observed and counterfactual distributions via a loss function based on inverse probability re-weighting, and supports integration with state-of-the-art conditional generative models such as the guided diffusion and conditional variational autoencoder. We present a thorough evaluation of our method using both synthetic and real-world data. Our results demonstrate that our method is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual samples and outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Provable Statistical Rates for Consistency Diffusion Models

Diffusion models have revolutionized various application domains, including computer vision and audio generation. Despite the state-of-the-art performance, diffusion models are known for their slow sample generation due to the extensive number of steps involved. In response, consistency models have been developed to merge multiple steps in the sampling process, thereby significantly boosting the speed of sample generation without compromising quality. This paper contributes towards the first statistical theory for consistency models, formulating their training as a distribution discrepancy minimization problem. Our analysis yields statistical estimation rates based on the Wasserstein distance for consistency models, matching those of vanilla diffusion models. Additionally, our results encompass the training of consistency models through both distillation and isolation methods, demystifying their underlying advantage.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

An Overview of Diffusion Models: Applications, Guided Generation, Statistical Rates and Optimization

Diffusion models, a powerful and universal generative AI technology, have achieved tremendous success in computer vision, audio, reinforcement learning, and computational biology. In these applications, diffusion models provide flexible high-dimensional data modeling, and act as a sampler for generating new samples under active guidance towards task-desired properties. Despite the significant empirical success, theory of diffusion models is very limited, potentially slowing down principled methodological innovations for further harnessing and improving diffusion models. In this paper, we review emerging applications of diffusion models, understanding their sample generation under various controls. Next, we overview the existing theories of diffusion models, covering their statistical properties and sampling capabilities. We adopt a progressive routine, beginning with unconditional diffusion models and connecting to conditional counterparts. Further, we review a new avenue in high-dimensional structured optimization through conditional diffusion models, where searching for solutions is reformulated as a conditional sampling problem and solved by diffusion models. Lastly, we discuss future directions about diffusion models. The purpose of this paper is to provide a well-rounded theoretical exposure for stimulating forward-looking theories and methods of diffusion models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Diffusion Model for Data-Driven Black-Box Optimization

Generative AI has redefined artificial intelligence, enabling the creation of innovative content and customized solutions that drive business practices into a new era of efficiency and creativity. In this paper, we focus on diffusion models, a powerful generative AI technology, and investigate their potential for black-box optimization over complex structured variables. Consider the practical scenario where one wants to optimize some structured design in a high-dimensional space, based on massive unlabeled data (representing design variables) and a small labeled dataset. We study two practical types of labels: 1) noisy measurements of a real-valued reward function and 2) human preference based on pairwise comparisons. The goal is to generate new designs that are near-optimal and preserve the designed latent structures. Our proposed method reformulates the design optimization problem into a conditional sampling problem, which allows us to leverage the power of diffusion models for modeling complex distributions. In particular, we propose a reward-directed conditional diffusion model, to be trained on the mixed data, for sampling a near-optimal solution conditioned on high predicted rewards. Theoretically, we establish sub-optimality error bounds for the generated designs. The sub-optimality gap nearly matches the optimal guarantee in off-policy bandits, demonstrating the efficiency of reward-directed diffusion models for black-box optimization. Moreover, when the data admits a low-dimensional latent subspace structure, our model efficiently generates high-fidelity designs that closely respect the latent structure. We provide empirical experiments validating our model in decision-making and content-creation tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Unveil Conditional Diffusion Models with Classifier-free Guidance: A Sharp Statistical Theory

Conditional diffusion models serve as the foundation of modern image synthesis and find extensive application in fields like computational biology and reinforcement learning. In these applications, conditional diffusion models incorporate various conditional information, such as prompt input, to guide the sample generation towards desired properties. Despite the empirical success, theory of conditional diffusion models is largely missing. This paper bridges this gap by presenting a sharp statistical theory of distribution estimation using conditional diffusion models. Our analysis yields a sample complexity bound that adapts to the smoothness of the data distribution and matches the minimax lower bound. The key to our theoretical development lies in an approximation result for the conditional score function, which relies on a novel diffused Taylor approximation technique. Moreover, we demonstrate the utility of our statistical theory in elucidating the performance of conditional diffusion models across diverse applications, including model-based transition kernel estimation in reinforcement learning, solving inverse problems, and reward conditioned sample generation.

cs.LG↗