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Miquel Montero

Publications and source records attributed to Miquel Montero.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2012

Monotonous continuous-time random walks with drift and stochastic reset events

In this paper we consider a stochastic process that may experience random reset events which bring suddenly the system to the starting value and analyze the relevant statistical magnitudes. We focus our attention on monotonous continuous-time random walks with a constant drift: the process increases between the reset events, either by the effect of the random jumps, or by the action of the deterministic drift. As a result of all these combined factors interesting properties emerge, like the existence|for any drift strength|of a stationary transition probability density function, or the faculty of the model to reproduce power-law-like behavior. General formulas for two extreme statistics, the survival probability and the mean exit time, are also derived. To corroborate in an independent way the results of the paper, Monte Carlo methods were used. These numerical estimations are in full agreement with the analytical predictions.

math-ph↗
arXiv2011

Parrondo-like behavior in continuous-time random walks with memory

The Continuous-Time Random Walk (CTRW) formalism can be adapted to encompass stochastic processes with memory. In this article we will show how the random combination of two different unbiased CTRWs can give raise to a process with clear drift, if one of them is a CTRW with memory. If one identifies the other one as noise, the effect can be thought as a kind of stochastic resonance. The ultimate origin of this phenomenon is the same of the Parrondo's paradox in game theory

math-ph↗
arXiv2010

Exit times in non-Markovian drifting continuous-time random walk processes

By appealing to renewal theory we determine the equations that the mean exit time of a continuous-time random walk with drift satisfies both when the present coincides with a jump instant or when it does not. Particular attention is paid to the corrections ensuing from the non-Markovian nature of the process. We show that when drift and jumps have the same sign the relevant integral equations can be solved in closed form. The case when holding times have the classical Erlang distribution is considered in detail.

math.PR↗
arXiv2010

On the effect of random inhomogeneities in Kerr-media modelled by non-linear Schrodinger equation

We consider propagation of optical pulses under the interplay of dispersion and Kerr non-linearity in optical fibres with impurities distributed at random uniformly on the fibre. By using a model based on the non-linear Schrodinger equation we clarify how such inhomogeneities affect different aspects such as the number of solitons present and the intensity of the signal. We also obtain the mean distance for the signal to dissipate to a given level.

physics.optics↗
arXiv2009

Predator-Prey Model for Stock Market Fluctuations

We present a dynamical model for the price evolution of financial assets. The model is based in a two level structure. In the first stage one finds an agent-based model that describes the present state of the investors' beliefs, perspectives or strategies. The dynamics is inspired by a model for describing predator-prey population evolution: agents change their mind through self- or mutual interaction, and the decision is adopted on a random basis, with no direct influence of the price itself. One of the most appealing properties of such a system is the presence of large oscillations in the number of agents sharing the same perspective, what may be linked with the existence of bullish and bearish periods in financial markets. In the second stage one has the pricing mechanism, which will be driven by the relative population in the different investors' groups. The price equation will depend on the specific nature of the species, and thus it may change from one market to the other: we will firstly present a simple model of excess demand, and subsequently consider a more elaborate liquidity model. The outcomes of both models are analysed and compared.

q-fin.TR↗
arXiv2009

Perpetual American vanilla option pricing under single regime change risk. An exhaustive study

Perpetual American options are financial instruments that can be readily exercised and do not mature. In this paper we study in detail the problem of pricing this kind of derivatives, for the most popular flavour, within a framework in which some of the properties |volatility and dividend policy| of the underlying stock can change at a random instant of time, but in such a way that we can forecast their final values. Under this assumption we can model actual market conditions because most relevant facts usually entail sharp predictable consequences. The effect of this potential risk on perpetual American vanilla options is remarkable: the very equation that will determine the fair price depends on the solution to be found. Sound results are found under the optics both of finance and physics. In particular, a parallelism among the overall outcome of this problem and a phase transition is established.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2008

On properties of Continuous-Time Random Walks with Non-Poissonian jump-times

The usual development of the continuous-time random walk (CTRW) proceeds by assuming that the present is one of the jumping times. Under this restrictive assumption integral equations for the propagator and mean escape times have been derived. We generalize these results to the case when the present is an arbitrary time by recourse to renewal theory. The case of Erlang distributed times is analyzed in detail. Several concrete examples are considered.

q-fin.ST↗
arXiv2008

Renewal equations for option pricing

In this paper we will develop a methodology for obtaining pricing expressions for financial instruments whose underlying asset can be described through a simple continuous-time random walk (CTRW) market model. Our approach is very natural to the issue because it is based in the use of renewal equations, and therefore it enhances the potential use of CTRW techniques in finance. We solve these equations for typical contract specifications, in a particular but exemplifying case. We also show how a formal general solution can be found for more exotic derivatives, and we compare prices for alternative models of the underlying. Finally, we recover the celebrated results for the Wiener process under certain limits.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2007

Perpetual American options within CTRW's

Continuous-time random walks are a well suited tool for the description of market behaviour at the smallest scale: the tick-to-tick evolution. We will apply this kind of market model to the valuation of perpetual American options: derivatives with no maturity that can be exercised at any time. Our approach leads to option prices that fulfil financial formulas when canonical assumptions on the dynamics governing the process are made, but it is still suitable for more exotic market conditions.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2007

Non-independent continuous time random walks

The usual development of the continuous time random walk (CTRW) assumes that jumps and time intervals are a two-dimensional set of independent and identically distributed random variables. In this paper we address the theoretical setting of non-independent CTRW's where consecutive jumps and/or time intervals are correlated. An exact solution to the problem is obtained for the special but relevant case in which the correlation solely depends on the signs of consecutive jumps. Even in this simple case some interesting features arise such as transitions from unimodal to bimodal distributions due to correlation. We also develop the necessary analytical techniques and approximations to handle more general situations that can appear in practice.

physics.data-an↗
arXiv2007

Volatility and dividend risk in perpetual American options

American options are financial instruments that can be exercised at any time before expiration. In this paper we study the problem of pricing this kind of derivatives within a framework in which some of the properties --volatility and dividend policy-- of the underlaying stock can change at a random instant of time, but in such a way that we can forecast their final values. Under this assumption we can model actual market conditions because some of the most relevant facts that may potentially affect a firm will entail sharp predictable effects. We will analyse the consequences of this potential risk on perpetual American derivatives, a topic connected with a wide class of recurrent problems in physics: holders of American options must look for the fair price and the optimal exercise strategy at once, a typical question of free absorbing boundaries. We present explicit solutions to the most common contract specifications and derive analytical expressions concerning the mean and higher moments of the exercise time.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2006

Mean Exit Time and Survival Probability within the CTRW Formalism

An intense research on financial market microstructure is presently in progress. Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are general models capable to capture the small-scale properties that high frequency data series show. The use of CTRW models in the analysis of financial problems is quite recent and their potentials have not been fully developed. Here we present two (closely related) applications of great interest in risk control. In the first place, we will review the problem of modelling the behaviour of the mean exit time (MET) of a process out of a given region of fixed size. The surveyed stochastic processes are the cumulative returns of asset prices. The link between the value of the MET and the timescale of the market fluctuations of a certain degree is crystal clear. In this sense, MET value may help, for instance, in deciding the optimal time horizon for the investment. The MET is, however, one among the statistics of a distribution of bigger interest: the survival probability (SP), the likelihood that after some lapse of time a process remains inside the given region without having crossed its boundaries. The final part of the article is devoted to the study of this quantity. Note that the use of SPs may outperform the standard "Value at Risk" (VaR) method for two reasons: we can consider other market dynamics than the limited Wiener process and, even in this case, a risk level derived from the SP will ensure (within the desired quintile) that the quoted value of the portfolio will not leave the safety zone. We present some preliminary theoretical and applied results concerning this topic.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2006

Entropy of the Nordic electricity market: anomalous scaling, spikes, and mean-reversion

The electricity market is a very peculiar market due to the large variety of phenomena that can affect the spot price. However, this market still shows many typical features of other speculative (commodity) markets like, for instance, data clustering and mean reversion. We apply the diffusion entropy analysis (DEA) to the Nordic spot electricity market (Nord Pool). We study the waiting time statistics between consecutive spot price spikes and find it to show anomalous scaling characterized by a decaying power-law. The exponent observed in data follows a quite robust relationship with the one implied by the DEA analysis. We also in terms of the DEA revisit topics like clustering, mean-reversion and periodicities. We finally propose a GARCH inspired model but for the price itself. Models in the context of stochastic volatility processes appear under this scope to have a feasible description.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2005

Scaling and data collapse for the mean exit time of asset prices

We study theoretical and empirical aspects of the mean exit time of financial time series. The theoretical modeling is done within the framework of continuous time random walk. We empirically verify that the mean exit time follows a quadratic scaling law and it has associated a pre-factor which is specific to the analyzed stock. We perform a series of statistical tests to determine which kind of correlation are responsible for this specificity. The main contribution is associated with the autocorrelation property of stock returns. We introduce and solve analytically both a two-state and a three-state Markov chain models. The analytical results obtained with the two-state Markov chain model allows us to obtain a data collapse of the 20 measured MET profiles in a single master curve.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2004

Extreme times in financial markets

We apply the theory of continuous time random walks to study some aspects of the extreme value problem applied to financial time series. We focus our attention on extreme times, specifically the mean exit time and the mean first-passage time. We set the general equations for these extremes and evaluate the mean exit time for actual data.

cond-mat.other↗
arXiv2003

Activity autocorrelation in financial markets. A comparative study between several models

We study the activity, i.e., the number of transactions per unit time, of financial markets. Using the diffusion entropy technique we show that the autocorrelation of the activity is caused by the presence of peaks whose time distances are distributed following an asymptotic power law which ultimately recovers the Poissonian behavior. We discuss these results in comparison with ARCH models, stochastic volatility models and multi-agent models showing that ARCH and stochastic volatility models better describe the observed experimental evidences.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗
arXiv2003

Partial Derivative Approach for Option Pricing in a Simple Stochastic Volatility Model

We study a market model in which the volatility of the stock may jump at a random time from a fixed value to another fixed value. This model was already described in the literature. We present a new approach to the problem, based on partial derivative equations, which gives a different perspective to the problem. Within our framework we can easily consider several prescriptions for the market price of volatility risk, and interpret their financial meaning. Thus, we recover solutions previously cited in the literature as well as obtain new ones.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗