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Mirco Musolesi

Publications and source records attributed to Mirco Musolesi.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

Reinforcement Learning on Encrypted Data

The growing number of applications of Reinforcement Learning (RL) in real-world domains has led to the development of privacy-preserving techniques due to the inherently sensitive nature of data. Most existing works focus on differential privacy, in which information is revealed in the clear to an agent whose learned model should be robust against information leakage to malicious third parties. Motivated by use cases in which only encrypted data might be shared, such as information from sensitive sites, in this work we consider scenarios in which the inputs themselves are sensitive and cannot be revealed. We develop a simple extension to the MDP framework which provides for the encryption of states. We present a preliminary, experimental study of how a DQN agent trained on encrypted states performs in environments with discrete and continuous state spaces. Our results highlight that the agent is still capable of learning in small state spaces even in presence of non-deterministic encryption, but performance collapses in more complex environments.

cs.LG↗

Modelling Grocery Retail Topic Distributions: Evaluation, Interpretability and Stability

Understanding the shopping motivations behind market baskets has high commercial value in the grocery retail industry. Analyzing shopping transactions demands techniques that can cope with the volume and dimensionality of grocery transactional data while keeping interpretable outcomes. Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) provides a suitable framework to process grocery transactions and to discover a broad representation of customers' shopping motivations. However, summarizing the posterior distribution of an LDA model is challenging, while individual LDA draws may not be coherent and cannot capture topic uncertainty. Moreover, the evaluation of LDA models is dominated by model-fit measures which may not adequately capture the qualitative aspects such as interpretability and stability of topics. In this paper, we introduce clustering methodology that post-processes posterior LDA draws to summarise the entire posterior distribution and identify semantic modes represented as recurrent topics. Our approach is an alternative to standard label-switching techniques and provides a single posterior summary set of topics, as well as associated measures of uncertainty. Furthermore, we establish a more holistic definition for model evaluation, which assesses topic models based not only on their likelihood but also on their coherence, distinctiveness and stability. By means of a survey, we set thresholds for the interpretation of topic coherence and topic similarity in the domain of grocery retail data. We demonstrate that the selection of recurrent topics through our clustering methodology not only improves model likelihood but also outperforms the qualitative aspects of LDA such as interpretability and stability. We illustrate our methods on an example from a large UK supermarket chain.

stat.AP↗

Cooperation and Reputation Dynamics with Reinforcement Learning

Creating incentives for cooperation is a challenge in natural and artificial systems. One potential answer is reputation, whereby agents trade the immediate cost of cooperation for the future benefits of having a good reputation. Game theoretical models have shown that specific social norms can make cooperation stable, but how agents can independently learn to establish effective reputation mechanisms on their own is less understood. We use a simple model of reinforcement learning to show that reputation mechanisms generate two coordination problems: agents need to learn how to coordinate on the meaning of existing reputations and collectively agree on a social norm to assign reputations to others based on their behavior. These coordination problems exhibit multiple equilibria, some of which effectively establish cooperation. When we train agents with a standard Q-learning algorithm in an environment with the presence of reputation mechanisms, convergence to undesirable equilibria is widespread. We propose two mechanisms to alleviate this: (i) seeding a proportion of the system with fixed agents that steer others towards good equilibria; and (ii), intrinsic rewards based on the idea of introspection, i.e., augmenting agents' rewards by an amount proportionate to the performance of their own strategy against themselves. A combination of these simple mechanisms is successful in stabilizing cooperation, even in a fully decentralized version of the problem where agents learn to use and assign reputations simultaneously. We show how our results relate to the literature in Evolutionary Game Theory, and discuss implications for artificial, human and hybrid systems, where reputations can be used as a way to establish trust and cooperation.

cs.MA↗

Graph Input Representations for Machine Learning Applications in Urban Network Analysis

Understanding and learning the characteristics of network paths has been of particular interest for decades and has led to several successful applications. Such analysis becomes challenging for urban networks as their size and complexity are significantly higher compared to other networks. The state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques allow us to detect hidden patterns and, thus, infer the features associated with them. However, very little is known about the impact on the performance of such predictive models by the use of different input representations. In this paper, we design and evaluate six different graph input representations (i.e., representations of the network paths), by considering the network's topological and temporal characteristics, for being used as inputs for machine learning models to learn the behavior of urban networks paths. The representations are validated and then tested with a real-world taxi journeys dataset predicting the tips using a road network of New York. Our results demonstrate that the input representations that use temporal information help the model to achieve the highest accuracy (RMSE of 1.42$).

cs.LG↗

Partner Selection for the Emergence of Cooperation in Multi-Agent Systems Using Reinforcement Learning

Social dilemmas have been widely studied to explain how humans are able to cooperate in society. Considerable effort has been invested in designing artificial agents for social dilemmas that incorporate explicit agent motivations that are chosen to favor coordinated or cooperative responses. The prevalence of this general approach points towards the importance of achieving an understanding of both an agent's internal design and external environment dynamics that facilitate cooperative behavior. In this paper, we investigate how partner selection can promote cooperative behavior between agents who are trained to maximize a purely selfish objective function. Our experiments reveal that agents trained with this dynamic learn a strategy that retaliates against defectors while promoting cooperation with other agents resulting in a prosocial society.

cs.MA↗

Tracing Networks of Knowledge in the Digital Age

The emergence of new digital technologies has allowed the study of human behaviour at a scale and at level of granularity that were unthinkable just a decade ago. In particular, by analysing the digital traces left by people interacting in the online and offline worlds, we are able to trace the spreading of knowledge and ideas at both local and global scales. In this article we will discuss how these digital traces can be used to map knowledge across the world, outlining both the limitations and the challenges in performing this type of analysis. We will focus on data collected from social media platforms, large-scale digital repositories and mobile data. Finally, we will provide an overview of the tools that are available to scholars and practitioners for understanding these processes using these emerging forms of data.

cs.CY↗

Interpretable Machine Learning for Privacy-Preserving Pervasive Systems

Our everyday interactions with pervasive systems generate traces that capture various aspects of human behavior and enable machine learning algorithms to extract latent information about users. In this paper, we propose a machine learning interpretability framework that enables users to understand how these generated traces violate their privacy.

stat.ML↗

Quantifying Networked Resilience via Multi-Scale Feedback Loops in Water Distribution Networks

Water distribution networks (WDNs) are one of the most important man-made infrastructures. Resilience, the ability to respond to disturbances and recover to a desirable state, is of vital importance to our society. There is increasing evidence that the resilience of networked infrastructures with dynamic signals depends on their network topological properties. Whilst existing literature has examined a variety of complex network centrality and spectral properties, very little attention has been given to understand multi-scale flow-based feedback loops and its impact on overall stability. Here, resilience arising from multi-scale feedback loops is inferred using a proxy measure called trophic coherence. This is hypothesised to have a strong impact on both the pressure deficit and the water age. Our results show that trophic coherence is positively correlated with the time to recovery (0.62 to 0.52), while it is negatively correlated with the diffusion of a disruption (-0.66 to -0.52). Finally, we apply random forest analysis to combine resilience measures, showing that the new resilience ensemble provides a more accurate measure for networked resilience.

physics.soc-ph↗

Learning through Probing: a decentralized reinforcement learning architecture for social dilemmas

Multi-agent reinforcement learning has received significant interest in recent years notably due to the advancements made in deep reinforcement learning which have allowed for the developments of new architectures and learning algorithms. Using social dilemmas as the training ground, we present a novel learning architecture, Learning through Probing (LTP), where agents utilize a probing mechanism to incorporate how their opponent's behavior changes when an agent takes an action. We use distinct training phases and adjust rewards according to the overall outcome of the experiences accounting for changes to the opponents behavior. We introduce a parameter eta to determine the significance of these future changes to opponent behavior. When applied to the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma (IPD), LTP agents demonstrate that they can learn to cooperate with each other, achieving higher average cumulative rewards than other reinforcement learning methods while also maintaining good performance in playing against static agents that are present in Axelrod tournaments. We compare this method with traditional reinforcement learning algorithms and agent-tracking techniques to highlight key differences and potential applications. We also draw attention to the differences between solving games and societal-like interactions and analyze the training of Q-learning agents in makeshift societies. This is to emphasize how cooperation may emerge in societies and demonstrate this using environments where interactions with opponents are determined through a random encounter format of the IPD.

cs.MA↗

A Comparison of Spatial-based Targeted Disease Containment Strategies using Mobile Phone Data

Epidemic outbreaks are an important healthcare challenge, especially in developing countries where they represent one of the major causes of mortality. Approaches that can rapidly target subpopulations for surveillance and control are critical for enhancing containment processes during epidemics. Using a real-world dataset from Ivory Coast, this work presents an attempt to unveil the socio-geographical heterogeneity of disease transmission dynamics. By employing a spatially explicit meta-population epidemic model derived from mobile phone Call Detail Records (CDRs), we investigate how the differences in mobility patterns may affect the course of a realistic infectious disease outbreak. We consider different existing measures of the spatial dimension of human mobility and interactions, and we analyse their relevance in identifying the highest risk sub-population of individuals, as the best candidates for isolation countermeasures. The approaches presented in this paper provide further evidence that mobile phone data can be effectively exploited to facilitate our understanding of individuals' spatial behaviour and its relationship with the risk of infectious diseases' contagion. In particular, we show that CDRs-based indicators of individuals' spatial activities and interactions hold promise for gaining insight of contagion heterogeneity and thus for developing containment strategies to support decision-making during country-level pandemics.

cs.SI↗

Predicting the temporal activity patterns of new venues

Estimating revenue and business demand of a newly opened venue is paramount as these early stages often involve critical decisions such as first rounds of staffing and resource allocation. Traditionally, this estimation has been performed through coarse-grained measures such as observing numbers in local venues or venues at similar places (e.g., coffee shops around another station in the same city). The advent of crowdsourced data from devices and services carried by individuals on a daily basis has opened up the possibility of performing better predictions of temporal visitation patterns for locations and venues. In this paper, using mobility data from Foursquare, a location-centric platform, we treat venue categories as proxies for urban activities and analyze how they become popular over time. The main contribution of this work is a prediction framework able to use characteristic temporal signatures of places together with k-nearest neighbor metrics capturing similarities among urban regions, to forecast weekly popularity dynamics of a new venue establishment in a city neighborhood. We further show how we are able to forecast the popularity of the new venue after one month following its opening by using locality and temporal similarity as features. For the evaluation of our approach we focus on London. We show that temporally similar areas of the city can be successfully used as inputs of predictions of the visit patterns of new venues, with an improvement of 41% compared to a random selection of wards as a training set for the prediction task. We apply these concepts of temporally similar areas and locality to the real-time predictions related to new venues and show that these features can effectively be used to predict the future trends of a venue. Our findings have the potential to impact the design of location-based technologies and decisions made by new business owners.

cs.SI↗

You are your Metadata: Identification and Obfuscation of Social Media Users using Metadata Information

Metadata are associated to most of the information we produce in our daily interactions and communication in the digital world. Yet, surprisingly, metadata are often still catergorized as non-sensitive. Indeed, in the past, researchers and practitioners have mainly focused on the problem of the identification of a user from the content of a message. In this paper, we use Twitter as a case study to quantify the uniqueness of the association between metadata and user identity and to understand the effectiveness of potential obfuscation strategies. More specifically, we analyze atomic fields in the metadata and systematically combine them in an effort to classify new tweets as belonging to an account using different machine learning algorithms of increasing complexity. We demonstrate that through the application of a supervised learning algorithm, we are able to identify any user in a group of 10,000 with approximately 96.7% accuracy. Moreover, if we broaden the scope of our search and consider the 10 most likely candidates we increase the accuracy of the model to 99.22%. We also found that data obfuscation is hard and ineffective for this type of data: even after perturbing 60% of the training data, it is still possible to classify users with an accuracy higher than 95%. These results have strong implications in terms of the design of metadata obfuscation strategies, for example for data set release, not only for Twitter, but, more generally, for most social media platforms.

cs.CR↗

Intelligent Notification Systems: A Survey of the State of the Art and Research Challenges

Notifications provide a unique mechanism for increasing the effectiveness of real-time information delivery systems. However, notifications that demand users' attention at inopportune moments are more likely to have adverse effects and might become a cause of potential disruption rather than proving beneficial to users. In order to address these challenges a variety of intelligent notification mechanisms based on monitoring and learning users' behavior have been proposed. The goal of such mechanisms is maximizing users' receptivity to the delivered information by automatically inferring the right time and the right context for sending a certain type of information. This article provides an overview of the current state of the art in the area of intelligent notification mechanisms that relies on the awareness of users' context and preferences. More specifically, we first present a survey of studies focusing on understanding and modeling users' interruptibility and receptivity to notifications from desktops and mobile devices. Then, we discuss the existing challenges and opportunities in developing mechanisms for intelligent notification systems in a variety of application scenarios.

cs.HC↗

Towards Deep Learning Models for Psychological State Prediction using Smartphone Data: Challenges and Opportunities

There is an increasing interest in exploiting mobile sensing technologies and machine learning techniques for mental health monitoring and intervention. Researchers have effectively used contextual information, such as mobility, communication and mobile phone usage patterns for quantifying individuals' mood and wellbeing. In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of neural network models for predicting users' level of stress by using the location information collected by smartphones. We characterize the mobility patterns of individuals using the GPS metrics presented in the literature and employ these metrics as input to the network. We evaluate our approach on the open-source StudentLife dataset. Moreover, we discuss the challenges and trade-offs involved in building machine learning models for digital mental health and highlight potential future work in this direction.

cs.LG↗

Linking Twitter Events With Stock Market Jitters

Predicting investors reactions to financial and political news is important for the early detection of stock market jitters. Evidence from several recent studies suggests that online social media could improve prediction of stock market movements. However, utilizing such information to predict strong stock market fluctuations has not been explored so far. In this work, we propose a novel event detection method on Twitter, tailored to detect financial and political events that influence a specific stock market. The proposed approach applies a bursty topic detection method on a stream of tweets related to finance or politics followed by a classification process which filters-out events that do not influence the examined stock market. We train our classifier to recognise real events by using solely information about stock market volatility, without the need of manual labeling. We model Twitter events as feature vectors that encompass a rich variety of information, such as the geographical distribution of tweets, their polarity, information about their authors as well as information about bursty words associated with the event. We show that utilizing only information about tweets polarity, like most previous studies, results in wasting important information. We apply the proposed method on high-frequency intra-day data from the Greek and Spanish stock market and we show that our financial event detector successfully predicts most of the stock market jitters.

cs.SI↗

Non-Parametric Causality Detection: An Application to Social Media and Financial Data

According to behavioral finance, stock market returns are influenced by emotional, social and psychological factors. Several recent works support this theory by providing evidence of correlation between stock market prices and collective sentiment indexes measured using social media data. However, a pure correlation analysis is not sufficient to prove that stock market returns are influenced by such emotional factors since both stock market prices and collective sentiment may be driven by a third unmeasured factor. Controlling for factors that could influence the study by applying multivariate regression models is challenging given the complexity of stock market data. False assumptions about the linearity or non-linearity of the model and inaccuracies on model specification may result in misleading conclusions. In this work, we propose a novel framework for causal inference that does not require any assumption about the statistical relationships among the variables of the study and can effectively control a large number of factors. We apply our method in order to estimate the causal impact that information posted in social media may have on stock market returns of four big companies. Our results indicate that social media data not only correlate with stock market returns but also influence them.

stat.ME↗

Kissing Cuisines: Exploring Worldwide Culinary Habits on the Web

Food and nutrition occupy an increasingly prevalent space on the web, and dishes and recipes shared online provide an invaluable mirror into culinary cultures and attitudes around the world. More specifically, ingredients, flavors, and nutrition information become strong signals of the taste preferences of individuals and civilizations. However, there is little understanding of these palate varieties. In this paper, we present a large-scale study of recipes published on the web and their content, aiming to understand cuisines and culinary habits around the world. Using a database of more than 157K recipes from over 200 different cuisines, we analyze ingredients, flavors, and nutritional values which distinguish dishes from different regions, and use this knowledge to assess the predictability of recipes from different cuisines. We then use country health statistics to understand the relation between these factors and health indicators of different nations, such as obesity, diabetes, migration, and health expenditure. Our results confirm the strong effects of geographical and cultural similarities on recipes, health indicators, and culinary preferences across the globe.

cs.CY↗

Probabilistic Matching: Causal Inference under Measurement Errors

The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal inference studies may require unobserved high-level information which needs to be inferred from other observed attributes. In such cases, inaccuracies of the applied inference methods will result in noisy outputs. In this study, we propose a novel approach for causal inference when one or more key variables are noisy. Our method utilizes the knowledge about the uncertainty of the real values of key variables in order to reduce the bias induced by noisy measurements. We evaluate our approach in comparison with existing methods both on simulated and real scenarios and we demonstrate that our method reduces the bias and avoids false causal inference conclusions in most cases.

stat.ME↗