arXiv subjects

Miroslav Dudík

Publications and source records attributed to Miroslav Dudík.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Use and Effects of LLMs in Peer Review: A Randomized Experiment and Survey at ICML 2026

LLMs are rapidly reshaping peer review, making it important to understand how reviewers use them in practice and how different LLM-use policies affect review outcomes. We investigate these questions through a randomized experiment and an anonymous post-survey at ICML 2026, a major machine learning conference involving over 24,000 papers and 17,000 reviewers. Reviewers were assigned to either a conservative policy prohibiting all LLM use or a permissive policy allowing limited assistance, with randomization among a subset of main-track papers and reviewers. Policy assignment had near-zero effects on final paper decisions, paper scores, and reviewer confidence, although reviews under the permissive policy were 5.5-7% longer. Post-survey responses (N=1,486) revealed diverse attitudes toward LLMs and substantial noncompliance: 22.5% of conservative-policy reviewers reported using an LLM despite the prohibition, and 36.5% of permissive-policy reviewers reported at least one explicitly disallowed use. We discuss implications for future peer-review policy and tool design.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Astral Space: Convex Analysis at Infinity

Not all convex functions on $\mathbb{R}^n$ have finite minimizers; some can only be minimized by a sequence as it heads to infinity. In this work, we aim to develop a theory for understanding such minimizers at infinity. We study astral space, a compact extension of $\mathbb{R}^n$ to which such points at infinity have been added. Astral space is constructed to be as small as possible while still ensuring that all linear functions can be continuously extended to the new space. Although astral space includes all of $\mathbb{R}^n$, it is not a vector space, nor even a metric space. However, it is sufficiently well-structured to allow useful and meaningful extensions of concepts of convexity, conjugacy, and subdifferentials. We develop these concepts and analyze various properties of convex functions on astral space, including the detailed structure of their minimizers, exact characterizations of continuity, and convergence of descent algorithms.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

SureMap: Simultaneous Mean Estimation for Single-Task and Multi-Task Disaggregated Evaluation

Disaggregated evaluation -- estimation of performance of a machine learning model on different subpopulations -- is a core task when assessing performance and group-fairness of AI systems. A key challenge is that evaluation data is scarce, and subpopulations arising from intersections of attributes (e.g., race, sex, age) are often tiny. Today, it is common for multiple clients to procure the same AI model from a model developer, and the task of disaggregated evaluation is faced by each customer individually. This gives rise to what we call the multi-task disaggregated evaluation problem, wherein multiple clients seek to conduct a disaggregated evaluation of a given model in their own data setting (task). In this work we develop a disaggregated evaluation method called SureMap that has high estimation accuracy for both multi-task and single-task disaggregated evaluations of blackbox models. SureMap's efficiency gains come from (1) transforming the problem into structured simultaneous Gaussian mean estimation and (2) incorporating external data, e.g., from the AI system creator or from their other clients. Our method combines maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation using a well-chosen prior together with cross-validation-free tuning via Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE). We evaluate SureMap on disaggregated evaluation tasks in multiple domains, observing significant accuracy improvements over several strong competitors.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Fairlearn: Assessing and Improving Fairness of AI Systems

Fairlearn is an open source project to help practitioners assess and improve fairness of artificial intelligence (AI) systems. The associated Python library, also named fairlearn, supports evaluation of a model's output across affected populations and includes several algorithms for mitigating fairness issues. Grounded in the understanding that fairness is a sociotechnical challenge, the project integrates learning resources that aid practitioners in considering a system's broader societal context.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Personalization Improves Privacy-Accuracy Tradeoffs in Federated Learning

Large-scale machine learning systems often involve data distributed across a collection of users. Federated learning algorithms leverage this structure by communicating model updates to a central server, rather than entire datasets. In this paper, we study stochastic optimization algorithms for a personalized federated learning setting involving local and global models subject to user-level (joint) differential privacy. While learning a private global model induces a cost of privacy, local learning is perfectly private. We provide generalization guarantees showing that coordinating local learning with private centralized learning yields a generically useful and improved tradeoff between accuracy and privacy. We illustrate our theoretical results with experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Provably efficient RL with Rich Observations via Latent State Decoding

We study the exploration problem in episodic MDPs with rich observations generated from a small number of latent states. Under certain identifiability assumptions, we demonstrate how to estimate a mapping from the observations to latent states inductively through a sequence of regression and clustering steps -- where previously decoded latent states provide labels for later regression problems -- and use it to construct good exploration policies. We provide finite-sample guarantees on the quality of the learned state decoding function and exploration policies, and complement our theory with an empirical evaluation on a class of hard exploration problems. Our method exponentially improves over $Q$-learning with naïve exploration, even when $Q$-learning has cheating access to latent states.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Bayesian decision-making under misspecified priors with applications to meta-learning

Thompson sampling and other Bayesian sequential decision-making algorithms are among the most popular approaches to tackle explore/exploit trade-offs in (contextual) bandits. The choice of prior in these algorithms offers flexibility to encode domain knowledge but can also lead to poor performance when misspecified. In this paper, we demonstrate that performance degrades gracefully with misspecification. We prove that the expected reward accrued by Thompson sampling (TS) with a misspecified prior differs by at most $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(H^2 ε)$ from TS with a well specified prior, where $ε$ is the total-variation distance between priors and $H$ is the learning horizon. Our bound does not require the prior to have any parametric form. For priors with bounded support, our bound is independent of the cardinality or structure of the action space, and we show that it is tight up to universal constants in the worst case. Building on our sensitivity analysis, we establish generic PAC guarantees for algorithms in the recently studied Bayesian meta-learning setting and derive corollaries for various families of priors. Our results generalize along two axes: (1) they apply to a broader family of Bayesian decision-making algorithms, including a Monte-Carlo implementation of the knowledge gradient algorithm (KG), and (2) they apply to Bayesian POMDPs, the most general Bayesian decision-making setting, encompassing contextual bandits as a special case. Through numerical simulations, we illustrate how prior misspecification and the deployment of one-step look-ahead (as in KG) can impact the convergence of meta-learning in multi-armed and contextual bandits with structured and correlated priors.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Log-time Prediction Markets for Interval Securities

We design a prediction market to recover a complete and fully general probability distribution over a random variable. Traders buy and sell interval securities that pay \$1 if the outcome falls into an interval and \$0 otherwise. Our market takes the form of a central automated market maker and allows traders to express interval endpoints of arbitrary precision. We present two designs in both of which market operations take time logarithmic in the number of intervals (that traders distinguish), providing the first computationally efficient market for a continuous variable. Our first design replicates the popular logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR), but operates exponentially faster than a standard LMSR by exploiting its modularity properties to construct a balanced binary tree and decompose computations along the tree nodes. The second design consists of two or more parallel LMSR market makers that mediate submarkets of increasingly fine-grained outcome partitions. This design remains computationally efficient for all operations, including arbitrage removal across submarkets. It adds two additional benefits for the market designer: (1) the ability to express utility for information at various resolutions by assigning different liquidity values, and (2) the ability to guarantee a true constant bounded loss by appropriately decreasing the liquidity in each submarket.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2020

Doubly robust off-policy evaluation with shrinkage

We propose a new framework for designing estimators for off-policy evaluation in contextual bandits. Our approach is based on the asymptotically optimal doubly robust estimator, but we shrink the importance weights to minimize a bound on the mean squared error, which results in a better bias-variance tradeoff in finite samples. We use this optimization-based framework to obtain three estimators: (a) a weight-clipping estimator, (b) a new weight-shrinkage estimator, and (c) the first shrinkage-based estimator for combinatorial action sets. Extensive experiments in both standard and combinatorial bandit benchmark problems show that our estimators are highly adaptive and typically outperform state-of-the-art methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Gradient descent follows the regularization path for general losses

Recent work across many machine learning disciplines has highlighted that standard descent methods, even without explicit regularization, do not merely minimize the training error, but also exhibit an implicit bias. This bias is typically towards a certain regularized solution, and relies upon the details of the learning process, for instance the use of the cross-entropy loss. In this work, we show that for empirical risk minimization over linear predictors with arbitrary convex, strictly decreasing losses, if the risk does not attain its infimum, then the gradient-descent path and the algorithm-independent regularization path converge to the same direction (whenever either converges to a direction). Using this result, we provide a justification for the widely-used exponentially-tailed losses (such as the exponential loss or the logistic loss): while this convergence to a direction for exponentially-tailed losses is necessarily to the maximum-margin direction, other losses such as polynomially-tailed losses may induce convergence to a direction with a poor margin.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Oracle-Efficient Online Learning and Auction Design

We consider the design of computationally efficient online learning algorithms in an adversarial setting in which the learner has access to an offline optimization oracle. We present an algorithm called Generalized Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader and provide conditions under which it is oracle-efficient while achieving vanishing regret. Our results make significant progress on an open problem raised by Hazan and Koren, who showed that oracle-efficient algorithms do not exist in general and asked whether one can identify properties under which oracle-efficient online learning may be possible. Our auction-design framework considers an auctioneer learning an optimal auction for a sequence of adversarially selected valuations with the goal of achieving revenue that is almost as good as the optimal auction in hindsight, among a class of auctions. We give oracle-efficient learning results for: (1) VCG auctions with bidder-specific reserves in single-parameter settings, (2) envy-free item pricing in multi-item auctions, and (3) s-level auctions of Morgenstern and Roughgarden for single-item settings. The last result leads to an approximation of the overall optimal Myerson auction when bidders' valuations are drawn according to a fast-mixing Markov process, extending prior work that only gave such guarantees for the i.i.d. setting. Finally, we derive various extensions, including: (1) oracle-efficient algorithms for the contextual learning setting in which the learner has access to side information (such as bidder demographics), (2) learning with approximate oracles such as those based on Maximal-in-Range algorithms, and (3) no-regret bidding in simultaneous auctions, resolving an open problem of Daskalakis and Syrgkanis.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Fair Regression: Quantitative Definitions and Reduction-based Algorithms

In this paper, we study the prediction of a real-valued target, such as a risk score or recidivism rate, while guaranteeing a quantitative notion of fairness with respect to a protected attribute such as gender or race. We call this class of problems \emph{fair regression}. We propose general schemes for fair regression under two notions of fairness: (1) statistical parity, which asks that the prediction be statistically independent of the protected attribute, and (2) bounded group loss, which asks that the prediction error restricted to any protected group remain below some pre-determined level. While we only study these two notions of fairness, our schemes are applicable to arbitrary Lipschitz-continuous losses, and so they encompass least-squares regression, logistic regression, quantile regression, and many other tasks. Our schemes only require access to standard risk minimization algorithms (such as standard classification or least-squares regression) while providing theoretical guarantees on the optimality and fairness of the obtained solutions. In addition to analyzing theoretical properties of our schemes, we empirically demonstrate their ability to uncover fairness--accuracy frontiers on several standard datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

A Reductions Approach to Fair Classification

We present a systematic approach for achieving fairness in a binary classification setting. While we focus on two well-known quantitative definitions of fairness, our approach encompasses many other previously studied definitions as special cases. The key idea is to reduce fair classification to a sequence of cost-sensitive classification problems, whose solutions yield a randomized classifier with the lowest (empirical) error subject to the desired constraints. We introduce two reductions that work for any representation of the cost-sensitive classifier and compare favorably to prior baselines on a variety of data sets, while overcoming several of their disadvantages.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Hierarchical Imitation and Reinforcement Learning

We study how to effectively leverage expert feedback to learn sequential decision-making policies. We focus on problems with sparse rewards and long time horizons, which typically pose significant challenges in reinforcement learning. We propose an algorithmic framework, called hierarchical guidance, that leverages the hierarchical structure of the underlying problem to integrate different modes of expert interaction. Our framework can incorporate different combinations of imitation learning (IL) and reinforcement learning (RL) at different levels, leading to dramatic reductions in both expert effort and cost of exploration. Using long-horizon benchmarks, including Montezuma's Revenge, we demonstrate that our approach can learn significantly faster than hierarchical RL, and be significantly more label-efficient than standard IL. We also theoretically analyze labeling cost for certain instantiations of our framework.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Practical Contextual Bandits with Regression Oracles

A major challenge in contextual bandits is to design general-purpose algorithms that are both practically useful and theoretically well-founded. We present a new technique that has the empirical and computational advantages of realizability-based approaches combined with the flexibility of agnostic methods. Our algorithms leverage the availability of a regression oracle for the value-function class, a more realistic and reasonable oracle than the classification oracles over policies typically assumed by agnostic methods. Our approach generalizes both UCB and LinUCB to far more expressive possible model classes and achieves low regret under certain distributional assumptions. In an extensive empirical evaluation, compared to both realizability-based and agnostic baselines, we find that our approach typically gives comparable or superior results.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

A Decomposition of Forecast Error in Prediction Markets

We analyze sources of error in prediction market forecasts in order to bound the difference between a security's price and the ground truth it estimates. We consider cost-function-based prediction markets in which an automated market maker adjusts security prices according to the history of trade. We decompose the forecasting error into three components: sampling error, arising because traders only possess noisy estimates of ground truth; market-maker bias, resulting from the use of a particular market maker (i.e., cost function) to facilitate trade; and convergence error, arising because, at any point in time, market prices may still be in flux. Our goal is to make explicit the tradeoffs between these error components, influenced by design decisions such as the functional form of the cost function and the amount of liquidity in the market. We consider a specific model in which traders have exponential utility and exponential-family beliefs representing noisy estimates of ground truth. In this setting, sampling error vanishes as the number of traders grows, but there is a tradeoff between the other two components. We provide both upper and lower bounds on market-maker bias and convergence error, and demonstrate via numerical simulations that these bounds are tight. Our results yield new insights into the question of how to set the market's liquidity parameter and into the forecasting benefits of enforcing coherent prices across securities.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2017

Off-policy evaluation for slate recommendation

This paper studies the evaluation of policies that recommend an ordered set of items (e.g., a ranking) based on some context---a common scenario in web search, ads, and recommendation. We build on techniques from combinatorial bandits to introduce a new practical estimator that uses logged data to estimate a policy's performance. A thorough empirical evaluation on real-world data reveals that our estimator is accurate in a variety of settings, including as a subroutine in a learning-to-rank task, where it achieves competitive performance. We derive conditions under which our estimator is unbiased---these conditions are weaker than prior heuristics for slate evaluation---and experimentally demonstrate a smaller bias than parametric approaches, even when these conditions are violated. Finally, our theory and experiments also show exponential savings in the amount of required data compared with general unbiased estimators.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Arbitrage-Free Combinatorial Market Making via Integer Programming

We present a new combinatorial market maker that operates arbitrage-free combinatorial prediction markets specified by integer programs. Although the problem of arbitrage-free pricing, while maintaining a bound on the subsidy provided by the market maker, is #P-hard in the worst case, we posit that the typical case might be amenable to modern integer programming (IP) solvers. At the crux of our method is the Frank-Wolfe (conditional gradient) algorithm which is used to implement a Bregman projection aligned with the market maker's cost function, using an IP solver as an oracle. We demonstrate the tractability and improved accuracy of our approach on real-world prediction market data from combinatorial bets placed on the 2010 NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament, where the outcome space is of size 2^63. To our knowledge, this is the first implementation and empirical evaluation of an arbitrage-free combinatorial prediction market on this scale.

cs.GT↗