arXiv subjects

Mladen Kolar

Publications and source records attributed to Mladen Kolar.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

An Adaptive Stochastic Sequential Quadratic Programming with Differentiable Exact Augmented Lagrangians

We consider solving nonlinear optimization problems with a stochastic objective and deterministic equality constraints. We assume for the objective that its evaluation, gradient, and Hessian are inaccessible, while one can compute their stochastic estimates by, for example, subsampling. We propose a stochastic algorithm based on sequential quadratic programming (SQP) that uses a differentiable exact augmented Lagrangian as the merit function. To motivate our algorithm design, we first revisit and simplify an old SQP method \citep{Lucidi1990Recursive} developed for solving deterministic problems, which serves as the skeleton of our stochastic algorithm. Based on the simplified deterministic algorithm, we then propose a non-adaptive SQP for dealing with stochastic objective, where the gradient and Hessian are replaced by stochastic estimates but the stepsizes are deterministic and prespecified. Finally, we incorporate a recent stochastic line search procedure \citep{Paquette2020Stochastic} into the non-adaptive stochastic SQP to adaptively select the random stepsizes, which leads to an adaptive stochastic SQP. The global "almost sure" convergence for both non-adaptive and adaptive SQP methods is established. Numerical experiments on nonlinear problems in CUTEst test set demonstrate the superiority of the adaptive algorithm.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Personalized Federated Learning with Multiple Known Clusters

We consider the problem of personalized federated learning when there are known cluster structures within users. An intuitive approach would be to regularize the parameters so that users in the same cluster share similar model weights. The distances between the clusters can then be regularized to reflect the similarity between different clusters of users. We develop an algorithm that allows each cluster to communicate independently and derive the convergence results. We study a hierarchical linear model to theoretically demonstrate that our approach outperforms agents learning independently and agents learning a single shared weight. Finally, we demonstrate the advantages of our approach using both simulated and real-world data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Joint Gaussian Graphical Model Estimation: A Survey

Graphs from complex systems often share a partial underlying structure across domains while retaining individual features. Thus, identifying common structures can shed light on the underlying signal, for instance, when applied to scientific discoveries or clinical diagnoses. Furthermore, growing evidence shows that the shared structure across domains boosts the estimation power of graphs, particularly for high-dimensional data. However, building a joint estimator to extract the common structure may be more complicated than it seems, most often due to data heterogeneity across sources. This manuscript surveys recent work on statistical inference of joint Gaussian graphical models, identifying model structures that fit various data generation processes. Simulations under different data generation processes are implemented with detailed discussions on the choice of models.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

FuDGE: A Method to Estimate a Functional Differential Graph in a High-Dimensional Setting

We consider the problem of estimating the difference between two undirected functional graphical models with shared structures. In many applications, data are naturally regarded as a vector of random functions rather than as a vector of scalars. For example, electroencephalography (EEG) data are treated more appropriately as functions of time. In such a problem, not only can the number of functions measured per sample be large, but each function is itself an infinite-dimensional object, making estimation of model parameters challenging. This is further complicated by the fact that curves are usually observed only at discrete time points. We first define a functional differential graph that captures the differences between two functional graphical models and formally characterize when the functional differential graph is well defined. We then propose a method, FuDGE, that directly estimates the functional differential graph without first estimating each individual graph. This is particularly beneficial in settings where the individual graphs are dense but the differential graph is sparse. We show that FuDGE consistently estimates the functional differential graph even in a high-dimensional setting for both fully observed and discretely observed function paths. We illustrate the finite sample properties of our method through simulation studies. We also propose a competing method, the Joint Functional Graphical Lasso, which generalizes the Joint Graphical Lasso to the functional setting. Finally, we apply our method to EEG data to uncover differences in functional brain connectivity between a group of individuals with alcohol use disorder and a control group.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Dynamic Regret Minimization for Control of Non-stationary Linear Dynamical Systems

We consider the problem of controlling a Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) system over a finite horizon $T$ with fixed and known cost matrices $Q,R$, but unknown and non-stationary dynamics $\{A_t, B_t\}$. The sequence of dynamics matrices can be arbitrary, but with a total variation, $V_T$, assumed to be $o(T)$ and unknown to the controller. Under the assumption that a sequence of stabilizing, but potentially sub-optimal controllers is available for all $t$, we present an algorithm that achieves the optimal dynamic regret of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(V_T^{2/5}T^{3/5}\right)$. With piece-wise constant dynamics, our algorithm achieves the optimal regret of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{ST})$ where $S$ is the number of switches. The crux of our algorithm is an adaptive non-stationarity detection strategy, which builds on an approach recently developed for contextual Multi-armed Bandit problems. We also argue that non-adaptive forgetting (e.g., restarting or using sliding window learning with a static window size) may not be regret optimal for the LQR problem, even when the window size is optimally tuned with the knowledge of $V_T$. The main technical challenge in the analysis of our algorithm is to prove that the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator has a small bias when the parameter to be estimated is non-stationary. Our analysis also highlights that the key motif driving the regret is that the LQR problem is in spirit a bandit problem with linear feedback and locally quadratic cost. This motif is more universal than the LQR problem itself, and therefore we believe our results should find wider application.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Natural Actor-Critic Converges Globally for Hierarchical Linear Quadratic Regulator

Multi-agent reinforcement learning has been successfully applied to a number of challenging problems. Despite these empirical successes, theoretical understanding of different algorithms is lacking, primarily due to the curse of dimensionality caused by the exponential growth of the state-action space with the number of agents. We study a fundamental problem of multi-agent linear quadratic regulator (LQR) in a setting where the agents are partially exchangeable. In this setting, we develop a hierarchical actor-critic algorithm, whose computational complexity is independent of the total number of agents, and prove its global linear convergence to the optimal policy. As LQRs are often used to approximate general dynamic systems, this paper provides an important step towards a better understanding of general hierarchical mean-field multi-agent reinforcement learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Post-selection inference on high-dimensional varying-coefficient quantile regression model

Quantile regression has been successfully used to study heterogeneous and heavy-tailed data. Varying-coefficient models are frequently used to capture changes in the effect of input variables on the response as a function of an index or time. In this work, we study high-dimensional varying-coefficient quantile regression models and develop new tools for statistical inference. We focus on development of valid confidence intervals and honest tests for nonparametric coefficients at a fixed time point and quantile, while allowing for a high-dimensional setting where the number of input variables exceeds the sample size. Performing statistical inference in this regime is challenging due to the usage of model selection techniques in estimation. Nevertheless, we can develop valid inferential tools that are applicable to a wide range of data generating processes and do not suffer from biases introduced by model selection. We performed numerical simulations to demonstrate the finite sample performance of our method, and we also illustrated the application with a real data example.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Robust Inference for High-Dimensional Linear Models via Residual Randomization

We propose a residual randomization procedure designed for robust Lasso-based inference in the high-dimensional setting. Compared to earlier work that focuses on sub-Gaussian errors, the proposed procedure is designed to work robustly in settings that also include heavy-tailed covariates and errors. Moreover, our procedure can be valid under clustered errors, which is important in practice, but has been largely overlooked by earlier work. Through extensive simulations, we illustrate our method's wider range of applicability as suggested by theory. In particular, we show that our method outperforms state-of-art methods in challenging, yet more realistic, settings where the distribution of covariates is heavy-tailed or the sample size is small, while it remains competitive in standard, "well behaved" settings previously studied in the literature.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

A Nonconvex Framework for Structured Dynamic Covariance Recovery

We propose a flexible yet interpretable model for high-dimensional data with time-varying second order statistics, motivated and applied to functional neuroimaging data. Motivated by the neuroscience literature, we factorize the covariances into sparse spatial and smooth temporal components. While this factorization results in both parsimony and domain interpretability, the resulting estimation problem is nonconvex. To this end, we design a two-stage optimization scheme with a carefully tailored spectral initialization, combined with iteratively refined alternating projected gradient descent. We prove a linear convergence rate up to a nontrivial statistical error for the proposed descent scheme and establish sample complexity guarantees for the estimator. We further quantify the statistical error for the multivariate Gaussian case. Empirical results using simulated and real brain imaging data illustrate that our approach outperforms existing baselines.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Two-sample inference for high-dimensional Markov networks

Markov networks are frequently used in sciences to represent conditional independence relationships underlying observed variables arising from a complex system. It is often of interest to understand how an underlying network differs between two conditions. In this paper, we develop methods for comparing a pair of high-dimensional Markov networks where we allow the number of observed variables to increase with the sample sizes. By taking the density ratio approach, we are able to learn the network difference directly and avoid estimating the individual graphs. Our methods are thus applicable even when the individual networks are dense as long as their difference is sparse. We prove finite-sample Gaussian approximation error bounds for the estimator we construct under significantly weaker assumptions than are typically required for model selection consistency. Furthermore, we propose bootstrap procedures for estimating quantiles of a max-type statistics based on our estimator, and show how they can be used to test the equality of two Markov networks or construct simultaneous confidence intervals. The performance of our methods is demonstrated through extensive simulations. The scientific usefulness is illustrated with an analysis of a new fMRI dataset.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Tensor Canonical Correlation Analysis with Convergence and Statistical Guarantees

In many applications, such as classification of images or videos, it is of interest to develop a framework for tensor data instead of an ad-hoc way of transforming data to vectors due to the computational and under-sampling issues. In this paper, we study convergence and statistical properties of two-dimensional canonical correlation analysis \citep{Lee2007Two} under an assumption that data come from a probabilistic model. We show that carefully initialized the power method converges to the optimum and provide a finite sample bound. Then we extend this framework to tensor-valued data and propose the higher-order power method, which is commonly used in tensor decomposition, to extract the canonical directions. Our method can be used effectively in a large-scale data setting by solving the inner least squares problem with a stochastic gradient descent, and we justify convergence via the theory of Lojasiewicz's inequalities without any assumption on data generating process and initialization. For practical applications, we further develop (a) an inexact updating scheme which allows us to use the state-of-the-art stochastic gradient descent algorithm, (b) an effective initialization scheme which alleviates the problem of local optimum in non-convex optimization, and (c) a deflation procedure for extracting several canonical components. Empirical analyses on challenging data including gene expression and air pollution indexes in Taiwan, show the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed methodology. Our results fill a missing, but crucial, part in the literature on tensor data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Provably Efficient Neural Estimation of Structural Equation Model: An Adversarial Approach

Structural equation models (SEMs) are widely used in sciences, ranging from economics to psychology, to uncover causal relationships underlying a complex system under consideration and estimate structural parameters of interest. We study estimation in a class of generalized SEMs where the object of interest is defined as the solution to a linear operator equation. We formulate the linear operator equation as a min-max game, where both players are parameterized by neural networks (NNs), and learn the parameters of these neural networks using the stochastic gradient descent. We consider both 2-layer and multi-layer NNs with ReLU activation functions and prove global convergence in an overparametrized regime, where the number of neurons is diverging. The results are established using techniques from online learning and local linearization of NNs, and improve in several aspects the current state-of-the-art. For the first time we provide a tractable estimation procedure for SEMs based on NNs with provable convergence and without the need for sample splitting.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Statistical Inference for Networks of High-Dimensional Point Processes

Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the network estimates is critical in scientific applications, existing methodological and theoretical work has primarily addressed estimation. To bridge this gap, this paper develops a new statistical inference procedure for high-dimensional Hawkes processes. The key ingredient for this inference procedure is a new concentration inequality on the first- and second-order statistics for integrated stochastic processes, which summarize the entire history of the process. Combining recent results on martingale central limit theory with the new concentration inequality, we then characterize the convergence rate of the test statistics. We illustrate finite sample validity of our inferential tools via extensive simulations and demonstrate their utility by applying them to a neuron spike train data set.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Posterior Ratio Estimation of Latent Variables

Density Ratio Estimation has attracted attention from the machine learning community due to its ability to compare the underlying distributions of two datasets. However, in some applications, we want to compare distributions of random variables that are \emph{inferred} from observations. In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the ratio between two posterior probability density functions of a latent variable. Particularly, we assume the posterior ratio function can be well-approximated by a parametric model, which is then estimated using observed information and prior samples. We prove the consistency of our estimator and the asymptotic normality of the estimated parameters as the number of prior samples tending to infinity. Finally, we validate our theories using numerical experiments and demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method through some real-world applications.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

High-dimensional Index Volatility Models via Stein's Identity

We study the estimation of the parametric components of single and multiple index volatility models. Using the first- and second-order Stein's identities, we develop methods that are applicable for the estimation of the variance index in the high-dimensional setting requiring finite moment condition, which allows for heavy-tailed data. Our approach complements the existing literature in the low-dimensional setting, while relaxing the conditions on estimation, and provides a novel approach in the high-dimensional setting. We prove that the statistical rate of convergence of our variance index estimators consists of a parametric rate and a nonparametric rate, where the latter appears from the estimation of the mean link function. However, under standard assumptions, the parametric rate dominates the rate of convergence and our results match the minimax optimal rate for the mean index estimation. Simulation results illustrate finite sample properties of our methodology and back our theoretical conclusions.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Estimating Differential Latent Variable Graphical Models with Applications to Brain Connectivity

Differential graphical models are designed to represent the difference between the conditional dependence structures of two groups, thus are of particular interest for scientific investigation. Motivated by modern applications, this manuscript considers an extended setting where each group is generated by a latent variable Gaussian graphical model. Due to the existence of latent factors, the differential network is decomposed into sparse and low-rank components, both of which are symmetric indefinite matrices. We estimate these two components simultaneously using a two-stage procedure: (i) an initialization stage, which computes a simple, consistent estimator, and (ii) a convergence stage, implemented using a projected alternating gradient descent algorithm applied to a nonconvex objective, initialized using the output of the first stage. We prove that given the initialization, the estimator converges linearly with a nontrivial, minimax optimal statistical error. Experiments on synthetic and real data illustrate that the proposed nonconvex procedure outperforms existing methods.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Simultaneous Inference for Pairwise Graphical Models with Generalized Score Matching

Probabilistic graphical models provide a flexible yet parsimonious framework for modeling dependencies among nodes in networks. There is a vast literature on parameter estimation and consistent model selection for graphical models. However, in many of the applications, scientists are also interested in quantifying the uncertainty associated with the estimated parameters and selected models, which current literature has not addressed thoroughly. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for statistical inference on edge parameters in pairwise graphical models based on generalized Hyvärinen scoring rule. Hyvärinen scoring rule is especially useful in cases where the normalizing constant cannot be obtained efficiently in a closed form, which is a common problem for graphical models, including Ising models and truncated Gaussian graphical models. Our estimator allows us to perform statistical inference for general graphical models whereas the existing works mostly focus on statistical inference for Gaussian graphical models where finding normalizing constant is computationally tractable. Under mild conditions that are typically assumed in the literature for consistent estimation, we prove that our proposed estimator is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and asymptotically normal, which allows us to construct confidence intervals and build hypothesis tests for edge parameters. Moreover, we show how our proposed method can be applied to test hypotheses that involve a large number of model parameters simultaneously. We illustrate validity of our estimator through extensive simulation studies on a diverse collection of data-generating processes.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Estimation of a Low-rank Topic-Based Model for Information Cascades

We consider the problem of estimating the latent structure of a social network based on the observed information diffusion events, or cascades, where the observations for a given cascade consist of only the timestamps of infection for infected nodes but not the source of the infection. Most of the existing work on this problem has focused on estimating a diffusion matrix without any structural assumptions on it. In this paper, we propose a novel model based on the intuition that an information is more likely to propagate among two nodes if they are interested in similar topics which are also prominent in the information content. In particular, our model endows each node with an influence vector (which measures how authoritative the node is on each topic) and a receptivity vector (which measures how susceptible the node is for each topic). We show how this node-topic structure can be estimated from the observed cascades, and prove the consistency of the estimator. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the improved performance and better interpretability of our model compared to existing state-of-the-art methods.

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