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Mohamed Nedal

Publications and source records attributed to Mohamed Nedal.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

Review of Machine Learning Models for Solar Energetic Particle Prediction

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events have attracted increasing attention due to their significant radiation hazards for aviation, spacecraft electronics, and human missions beyond Earth's magnetosphere. From a scientific perspective, SEP events are intriguing because they arise from a set of physical processes extending from the solar surface and corona through the heliosphere, offering insight into particle acceleration and transport mechanisms that are widely applicable across astrophysics. Therefore, advancing our ability to understand and predict SEP events is essential both for deepening our knowledge of such mechanisms and for safeguarding space technologies and exploration. Traditionally, researchers have modeled SEPs using physics-based simulations and empirical methods. More recently, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a new tool for understanding and predicting SEP events. The purpose of this manuscript is to review the currently available ML models for SEP prediction, identify the datasets used for training, compare their architectures, inputs, and outputs, and, based on these insights, outline good practices and recommendations for future research.

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Multiple shocks generated by the 2024 May 14 coronal mass ejection

This study characterises a series of type~II radio bursts associated with a CME that occurred on 14 May, focusing on the coronal conditions during the event and identifying the likely location of the shocks where the radio bursts are generated. The CME was tracked using a combination of white light and extreme ultraviolet observations of the solar corona taken by three instruments: GOES-SUVI, two coronagraphs of the SOHO-LASCO, together with ground-based radio observations between 10-240~MHz from I-LOFAR. The radial distances of the radio sources were examined using a series of density models, with both PFSS and MHD models used to examine the coronal plasma conditions. Four type~II bursts were identified in the I$-$LOFAR radio dynamic spectrum over $\sim$15~minutes, exhibiting features such as band splitting, herringbones, and fragmentation. The shocks were found to have speeds ranging between $\sim$443$-$2075~km s$^{-1}$, with drift rates of $\sim-$361 to -78~kHz~s$^{-1}$. The shocks were found to have a $M_A \approx$ 3.21$-$3.57. indicating that they were super-Alfvénic. The first type~II burst was triggered $\sim$18~minutes after the CME launch, with each burst appearing to have been generated at a different height in the corona. Analysis of the derived kinematics and modelling results suggests that the type~II bursts were likely produced at the shoulders of the CME near the flanks, where open magnetic field lines and relatively low Alfvén speeds facilitated shock formation. This multi-instrument study shows that multiple type II bursts from a single CME originated at different coronal heights, with modelling indicating their generation near the CME flanks, where low Alfvén speeds and open magnetic field lines facilitated shock formation.

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New Bulgarian-Austrian project 'Joint observations and investigations of solar chromospheric and coronal activity'

We present the bilateral collaboration between Bulgarian and Austrian solar and space weather researchers on the topic of chromospheric and coronal activity. This new project will focus, on one hand, on the technical setup and calibration of the new Rozhen chromospheric telescope at the National Astronomical Observatory (NAO) by means of establishing optimal observational programs for different quiet-Sun and activity phenomena, automating the data collection and storage, implementing machine/deep learning models for feature recognition. The second aim is to carry out joint scientific analyses of solar phenomena using observations from ground-based instruments in both countries, and supplementary spacecraft data. The successful implementation of solar monitoring at NAO-Rozhen will facilitate the overall visibility of the Bulgarian instrument and generate interest towards astronomy and solar physics not only for PhD students and young scientists but also for the general public.

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Modeling Metric Gyrosynchrotron Radio Emission From the Quiet Solar Corona

The radio emission of the quiet Sun in the metric and decametric bands has not been well studied historically due to limitations of existing instruments. It is nominally dominated by thermal brehmsstrahlung of the solar corona, but may also include significant gyrosynchrotron emission, usually assumed to be weak under quiet conditions. In this work, we investigate the expected gyrosynchrotron contribution to solar radio emission in the lowest radio frequencies observable by ground instruments, for different regions of the low and middle corona. We approximate the coronal conditions by a synoptic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model. The thermal emission is estimated from a forward model based on the simulated corona. We calculate the expected gyrosynchrotron emission with the Fast Gyrosynchrotron Codes framework by Fleishman & Kuznetsov (2010). The model emissions of different coronal regions are compared with quiet-time observations between 20-90 MHz by the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) radio telescope. The contribution of gyrosynchrotron radiation to low frequency solar radio emission may shed light on effects such as the hitherto unexplained brightness variation observed in decametric coronal hole emission, and help constrain measurements of the coronal magnetic fields. It can also improve our understanding of electron populations in the middle corona and their relation to the formation of the solar wind.

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Helical flows along coronal loops following the launch of a coronal mass ejection

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are manifestations of energy release in the solar atmosphere, which can be accompanied by dynamic mass motions and waves in the surrounding atmosphere. Here, we present observations of plasma moving in a helical trajectory along a set of coronal loops formed following the eruption of a CME on 2024 May 14. This helical motion was observed in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images from the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO), which provides new insights into plasma properties in a set of post-eruption coronal loops. We utilize images from the SDO Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) instrument to track the helical motion of plasma and to characterize its speed, acceleration, and physical properties. Additionally, we explore the evolution of the plasma density and temperature along the helical structure using the differential emission measure technique. The helical structure was visible in AIA for approximately 22 minutes, having a diameter of 22 Mm, and a total trajectory of nearly 184 Mm. Analysis of the AIA observations reveals that the plasma flow along this helical coronal loop exhibits speeds of 77-384 km s$^{-1}$ and temperatures ranging from 3.46 to 10.2 MK. Additionally, the densities were estimated to be between 4.3.106 and 1.55.107 cm-3, with an estimated magnetic field strength of 0.05-0.3 G. Following the launch of a CME, we find clear evidence for impulsive heating and expansion of plasma that travels a helical trajectory along a set of post-eruption loops. These observations provide an insight into impulsive plasma flows along coronal loops and indeed the topology of coronal loops.

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Characterization of the Early Dynamics of Solar Coronal Bright Fronts

We present a comprehensive characterization of 26 CME-driven compressive waves known as Coronal Bright Fronts (CBFs) observed in the low solar corona between 2010 and 2017. These CBFs have been found to be associated with SEP events near Earth, indicating their importance in understanding space weather phenomena. The aim of this study is to analyze and describe the early dynamics of CBFs using a physics-based heliospheric SEP forecasting system known as the SPREAdFAST framework. This framework utilizes a chain of data-driven analytic and numerical models to predict SEP fluxes at multiple locations in the inner heliosphere by considering their acceleration at CMEs near the Sun and subsequent interplanetary transport. To estimate the time-dependent plasma and compression parameters of the CBFs, we utilized sequences of base-difference images obtained from the AIA instrument on board the SDO satellite, and measurements of the height-time profiles of the CMEs obtained from the LASCO instrument on board the SOHO satellite. We employed kinematic measurements and plasma model results to derive these parameters. The SPREAdFAST framework facilitated the analysis and correlation of these observations with SEP events near Earth. Our analysis yielded statistical relations and distributions for both the shocks and plasma parameters associated with the 26 CBFs investigated. By combining the observations from the AIA and LASCO instruments, as well as the data products from the SPREAdFAST framework, we obtained a comprehensive understanding of the early dynamics of CBFs, including their temporal evolution, plasma properties, and compressional characteristics. These findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge in the field and have implications for space weather forecasting and the study of SEP events.

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Coronal Diagnostics of Solar Type-III Radio Bursts Using LOFAR and PSP Observations

This study aims to investigate the ambiguous source and the underlying physical processes of the solar type III radio bursts that occurred on April 3, 2019, through the utilization of multiwavelength observations from the LOFAR radio telescope and the PSP space mission, as well as incorporating results from a PFSS and MHD models. The primary goal is to identify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the radio sources, as well as the plasma conditions along their trajectory. Data preprocessing techniques are applied to combine high- and low-frequency observations from LOFAR and PSP between 2.6 kHz and 80 MHz. We then extract information on the frequency drift and speed of the accelerated electron beams from the dynamic spectra. Additionally, we use LOFAR interferometric observations to image the sources of the radio emission at multiple frequencies and determine their locations and kinematics in the corona. Lastly, we analyze the plasma parameters and magnetic field along the trajectories of the radio sources using PFSS and MHD model results. We present several notable findings related to type III radio bursts. Firstly, through our automated implementation, we were able to effectively identify and characterize 9 type III radio bursts in the LOFAR-PSP combined dynamic spectrum and 16 type III bursts in the LOFAR dynamic spectrum. Secondly, our imaging observations show that the electrons responsible for these bursts originate from the same source and within a short time frame of fewer than 30 minutes. Finally, our analysis provides informative insights into the physical conditions along the path of the electron beams. For instance, we found that the plasma density obtained from the MAS model is significantly lower than the expected theoretical density.

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Forecasting Solar Energetic Proton Integral Fluxes with Bi-Directional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks

Solar energetic particles are mainly protons and originate from the Sun during solar flares or coronal shock waves. Forecasting the Solar Energetic Protons (SEP) flux is critical for several operational sectors, such as communication and navigation systems, space exploration missions, and aviation flights, as the hazardous radiation may endanger astronauts', aviation crew and passengers' health, the delicate electronic components of satellites, space stations, and ground power stations. Therefore, the prediction of the SEP flux is of high importance to our lives and may help mitigate the negative impacts of one of the serious space weather transient phenomena on the near-Earth space environment. Numerous SEP prediction models are being developed with a variety of approaches, such as empirical models, probabilistic models, physics-based models, and AI-based models. In this work, we use the bi-directional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) neural network model architecture to train SEP forecasting models for 3 standard integral GOES channels (>10 MeV, >30 MeV, and >60 MeV) with 3 forecast windows (1-day, 2-day, and 3-day ahead) based on daily data obtained from the OMNIWeb database from 1976 to 2019. As the SEP variability is modulated by the solar cycle, we select input parameters that capture the short-term, typically within a span of a few hours, and long-term, typically spanning several days, fluctuations in solar activity. We take the F10.7 index, the sunspot number, the time series of logarithm of the x-ray flux, the solar wind speed, and the average strength of the interplanetary magnetic field as input parameters to our model. The results are validated with an out-of-sample testing set and benchmarked with other types of models.

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Multi-Scale Image Preprocessing and Feature Tracking for Remote CME Characterization

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) influence the interplanetary environment over vast distances in the solar system by injecting huge clouds of fast solar plasma and energetic particles (SEPs). A number of fundamental questions remain about how SEPs are produced, but current understanding points to CME-driven shocks and compressions in the solar corona. At the same time, unprecedented remote and in situ (Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter) solar observations are becoming available to constrain existing theories. Here we present a general method for recognition and tracking on solar images of objects such as CME shock waves and filaments. The calculation scheme is based on a multi-scale data representation concept a trous wavelet transform, and a set of image filtering techniques. We showcase its performance on a small set of CME-related phenomena observed with the SDO/AIA telescope. With the data represented hierarchically on different decomposition and intensity levels, our method allows to extract certain objects and their masks from the imaging observations, in order to track their evolution in time. The method presented here is general and applicable to detecting and tracking various solar and heliospheric phenomena in imaging observations. It holds potential to prepare large training data sets for deep learning. We have implemented this method into a freely available Python library.

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A Multi-Event Study of Early-Stage SEP Acceleration by CME-Driven Shocks -- Sun to 1 AU

The solar corona below 10 solar radii is an important region for early acceleration and transport of solar energetic particles (SEPs) by coronal mass ejection-driven shock waves. There, these waves propagate into a highly variable dynamic medium with steep gradients and rapidly expanding coronal magnetic fields, which modulates the particle acceleration near the shock or wave surfaces, and the way SEPs spread into the heliosphere. We present a study modelling the acceleration of SEPs in global coronal shock events in the corona, as well as their transport to 1 au, based on telescopic observations coupled with dynamic physical models.

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