arXiv subjects

Mohammad Anis

Publications and source records attributed to Mohammad Anis.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Learning from geometry-aware near misses to real-time COR: A corridor-wide grouped random parameters GEV framework

Real-time corridor-wide crash-occurrence risk (COR) prediction is challenging because existing near-miss extreme value theory (EVT) models often oversimplify collision geometry, neglect vehicle-infrastructure (V-I) interactions, and inadequately account for spatial heterogeneity in traffic and roadway conditions. This study develops a geometry-aware two-dimensional time-to-collision (2D-TTC) near-miss extraction framework and integrates it with a hierarchical Bayesian grouped random parameter unified generalized extreme value model (HBSGRP-UGEV) to estimate short-term COR in urban corridors. The proposed framework builds on prior grouped EVT formulations while explicitly accommodating both vehicle-vehicle (V-V) and vehicle-infrastructure (V-I) near-miss processes within a unified corridor-wide modeling structure. High-resolution trajectories from the Argoverse-2 dataset were analyzed across 28 sites along Miami's Biscayne Boulevard to extract extreme near-miss events. The model incorporates vehicle dynamics and roadway features as covariates, with partial pooling across segments and intersections to capture corridor-wide heterogeneity. Results indicate that the HBSGRP-UGEV framework outperforms the fixed-parameter HBSFP-UGEV model, reducing the deviance information criterion (DIC) by up to 7.5 percent for V-V interactions and 3.1 percent for V-I interactions. Predictive validation using receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) demonstrates strong classification performance, with values of 0.89 for V-V segments, 0.82 for V-V intersections, 0.79 for V-I segments, and 0.75 for V-I intersections.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Simulating the Unseen: Crash Prediction Must Learn from What Did Not Happen

Traffic safety science has long been hindered by a fundamental data paradox: the crashes we most wish to prevent are precisely those events we rarely observe. Existing crash-frequency models and surrogate safety metrics rely heavily on sparse, noisy, and under-reported records, while even sophisticated, high-fidelity simulations undersample the long-tailed situations that trigger catastrophic outcomes such as fatalities. We argue that the path to achieving Vision Zero, i.e., the complete elimination of traffic fatalities and severe injuries, requires a paradigm shift from traditional crash-only learning to a new form of counterfactual safety learning: reasoning not only about what happened, but also about the vast set of plausible yet perilous scenarios that could have happened under slightly different circumstances. To operationalize this shift, our proposed agenda bridges macro to micro. Guided by crash-rate priors, generative scene engines, diverse driver models, and causal learning, near-miss events are synthesized and explained. A crash-focused digital twin testbed links micro scenes to macro patterns, while a multi-objective validator ensures that simulations maintain statistical realism. This pipeline transforms sparse crash data into rich signals for crash prediction, enabling the stress-testing of vehicles, roads, and policies before deployment. By learning from crashes that almost happened, we can shift traffic safety from reactive forensics to proactive prevention, advancing Vision Zero.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Why Anticipatory Sensing Matters in Commercial ACC Systems under Cut-In Scenarios: A Perspective from Stochastic Safety Analysis

This study presents an analytical solution for the vehicle state evolution of Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) systems under cut-in scenarios, incorporating sensing delays and anticipation using the Lambert W function. The theoretical analysis demonstrates that the vehicle state evolution and the corresponding safety of ACC in cut-in situations are influenced by multiple factors, including the original leading vehicle's state, the initial conditions of the cut-in vehicle, subsequent cut-in maneuvers, sensing delays, and the ACC's anticipation capabilities. To quantitatively assess these influences, a series of numerical experiments were conducted to perform a stochastic safety analysis of ACC systems, accounting for embedded sensing delays and anticipation, using empirically calibrated control parameters from real-world data. The experiments revealed that the impact of sensing delays on ACC is multifaceted. Specifically, sensing delays negatively affect ACC stability, with the severity increasing as the delay lengthens. Furthermore, collision risk in cut-in scenarios becomes more significant with sensing delays, particularly when the cut-in vehicle is slower than the following vehicle and when cut-ins are aggressive. However, anticipation plays a crucial role in mitigating these risks. Even with a 0.6-second anticipation, collision risk can be reduced by 91% in highly adverse scenarios. Finally, both sensing delays and anticipation have effects that intensify with their duration. An anticipation period of 2 seconds effectively ensures safety in aggressive cut-in conditions, even in the presence of sensing delays.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2024

Pedestrian crash causation analysis near bus stops: Insights from random parameters Negative Binomial-Lindley model

Pedestrian safety remains a pressing concern near bus stops along urban transit, where frequent pedestrian-vehicle interactions occur. While prior research has primarily focused on intersections and midblock locations, bus stops have often been treated as secondary contributors rather than as distinct sites requiring targeted safety assessments. This has left a critical gap in understanding how traffic exposure, roadway characteristics, and bus stop design features specifically influence pedestrian crash risks around bus stop locations. To address these gaps, this study develops a comprehensive framework focused on pedestrian safety in the vicinity of bus stops. The proposed approach employs a Random Parameters Negative Binomial-Lindley (RPNB-L) model to account for unobserved heterogeneity and site-specific variability.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Real-time risk estimation for active road safety: Leveraging Waymo AV sensor data with hierarchical Bayesian extreme value models

This study develops a real-time framework for estimating the risk of near-misses by using high-fidelity two-dimensional (2D) risk indicator time-to-collision (TTC), which is calculated from high-resolution data collected by autonomous vehicles (AVs). The framework utilizes extreme value theory (EVT) to derive near-miss risk based on observed TTC data. Most existing studies employ a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution for specific sites and conflict types and often overlook individual vehicle dynamics heterogeneity. This framework is versatile across various highway geometries and can encompass vehicle dynamics and fidelity by incorporating covariates such as speed, acceleration, steering angle, and heading. This makes the risk estimation framework suitable for dynamic, real-world traffic environments. The dataset for this study is derived from Waymo perception data, encompassing six sites across three cities: San Francisco, Phoenix, and Los Angeles. Vehicle trajectory data were extracted from the dataset, and near-miss frequencies were calculated using high-fidelity 2D TTC. The crash risk was derived from observed near misses using four hierarchical Bayesian GEV models, explicitly focusing on conflicting pairs as block minima (BM), which revealed that crash risk varies across pairs.The proposed framework is efficient using a hierarchical Bayesian structure random parameter (HBSRP) model, offering superior statistical performance and flexibility by accounting for unobserved heterogeneity across sites. The study identifies and quantifies that the most hazardous conditions involve conflicting vehicle speeds and rapid acceleration and deceleration, significantly increasing crash risk in urban arterials.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Beyond 1D and oversimplified kinematics: A generic analytical framework for surrogate safety measures

This paper presents a generic analytical framework tailored for surrogate safety measures (SSMs) that is versatile across various highway geometries, capable of encompassing vehicle dynamics of differing dimensionality and fidelity, and suitable for dynamic, real-world environments. The framework incorporates a generic vehicle movement model, accommodating a spectrum of scenarios with varying degrees of complexity and dimensionality, facilitating the prediction of future vehicle trajectories. It establishes a generic mathematical criterion to denote potential collisions, characterized by the spatial overlap between a vehicle and any other entity. A collision risk is present if the collision criterion is met at any non-negative time point, with the minimum threshold representing the remaining time to collision. The framework's proficiency spans from conventional one-dimensional (1D) SSMs to extended multi-dimensional, high-fidelity SSMs. Its validity is corroborated through simulation experiments that assess the precision of the framework when linearization is performed on the vehicle movement model. The outcomes showcase remarkable accuracy in predicting vehicle trajectories and the time remaining before potential collisions occur. The necessity of higher-dimensional and higher-fidelity SSMs is highlighted through a comparison of conventional 1D SSMs and extended three-dimensional (3D) SSMs. The results showed that using 1D SSMs over 3D SSMs could be off by 300% for non-critical Time-to-Collision (TTC) values and about 20% for critical TTC values (below 1.5 seconds). Furthermore, the framework's practical application is demonstrated through a case study that actively evaluates all potential conflicts, underscoring its effectiveness in dynamic, real-world traffic situations.

eess.SY↗