arXiv subjects

Mohammad Fereshtehpour

Publications and source records attributed to Mohammad Fereshtehpour.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Risk-based framework to determine climate-informed design storms for road drainage infrastructure

Climate change is amplifying extreme precipitation events in many regions and imposes substantial challenges for the resilience of road drainage infrastructure. Conventional design storm methodologies, which rely on historical trends of rainfall data under a stationarity assumption, may not adequately account for future climate variability. This study introduces a risk-based framework for determining climate-informed design storms tailored to road drainage systems. The proposed framework integrates climate model projections with risk assessment to quantify the potential impacts of future extreme rainfall on drainage performance and adjust the future design storm, with a focus on the province of Ontario, Canada. Projected precipitation changes for mid- and late-century time horizons are quantified using statistically downscaled CMIP6 General Circulation Models. The risk level is defined as a function of hazard and vulnerability, where hazard combines both physiographic and meteorological factors. Vulnerability is comprised of socioeconomic, transportation, and environmental considerations. To systematically integrate these components, a weighting scheme is developed based on a sensitivity analysis of the criteria, which provides flexibility in assigning relative importance to each factor. The estimated risk level is then applied to adjust the projected design storm accordingly. The proposed workflow is demonstrated through both province-wide and site-specific applications across Ontario's road network to better highlight its scalability and adaptability. The findings signify the necessity of shifting from static, stationarity-based design methodologies to dynamic, risk-informed approaches that enhance the long-term resilience of transportation networks.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2024

A Review on Flood Risk Conceptual Frameworks and Development of Hierarchical Structures for Assessment Criteria

Climate change and rapid urbanization have intensified the frequency and severity of flooding, resulting in substantial damage to communities and infrastructure. Existing research on flood risk addresses a wide range of dimensions, ranging from physical to managerial aspects, which adds complexity to the assessment process. This paper introduces the Integrated Risk Linkages (IRL) Framework to provide a systematic approach to flood risk assessment. The IRL Framework defines risk as the intersection of hazard and vulnerability, where vulnerability is shaped by exposure and susceptibility. Resilience, including coping and adaptive capacities, serves as a counterbalance to vulnerability, offering pathways to mitigate flood impacts. Guided by the IRL framework, this study conducts a comprehensive review of the literature to identify and organize a detailed set of 91 criteria and sub-criteria into three hierarchical structures: hazard, susceptibility, and resilience. Furthermore, the paper evaluates existing flood risk assessment methods, emphasizing their characteristics and practical applicability. The IRL framework presented in this study offers essential insights for navigating the complexities of flood risk management, serving as a valuable reference for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners. Its flexibility empowers users to adapt the framework by utilizing specific components or its entire hierarchical structure, depending on data availability and research objectives, thereby enhancing its applicability across diverse contexts.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Impacts of DEM Type and Resolution on Deep Learning-Based Flood Inundation Mapping

The increasing availability of hydrological and physiographic spatiotemporal data has boosted machine learning's role in rapid flood mapping. Yet, data scarcity, especially high-resolution DEMs, challenges regions with limited access. This paper examines how DEM type and resolution affect flood prediction accuracy, utilizing a cutting-edge deep learning (DL) method called 1D convolutional neural network (CNN). It utilizes synthetic hydrographs as training input and water depth data obtained from LISFLOOD-FP, a 2D hydrodynamic model, as target data. This study investigates digital surface models (DSMs) and digital terrain models (DTMs) derived from a 1 m LIDAR-based DTM, with resolutions from 15 to 30 m. The methodology is applied and assessed in an established benchmark, the city of Carlisle, UK. The models' performance is then evaluated and compared against an observed flood event using RMSE, Bias, and Fit indices. Leveraging the insights gained from this region, the paper discusses the applicability of the methodology to address the challenges encountered in a data-scarce flood-prone region, exemplified by Pakistan. Results indicated that utilizing a 30 m DTM outperformed a 30 m DSM in terms of flood depth prediction accuracy by about 21% during the flood peak stage, highlighting the superior performance of DTM at lower resolutions. Increasing the resolution of DTM to 15 m resulted in a minimum 50% increase in RMSE and a 20% increase in fit index across all flood stages. The findings emphasize that while a coarser resolution DEM may impact the accuracy of machine learning models, it remains a viable option for rapid flood prediction. However, even a slight improvement in data resolution in data-scarce regions would provide significant added value, ultimately enhancing flood risk management.

cs.CE↗