arXiv subjects

Morgan D. Sanger

Publications and source records attributed to Morgan D. Sanger.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

U.S. National Liquefaction Hazard Maps and their Implications for Engineering Practice and Policy

This study introduces U.S. national liquefaction hazard maps (NLHMs) developed using a mechanics-informed, geospatial machine learning model which surrogates state-of-practice liquefaction models, exploits a large library of geospatial predictors to infer subsurface conditions, and is anchored to measured conditions with in-situ test data. By convolving this geospatial liquefaction model with the 2023 U.S. national seismic hazard model, liquefaction hazard is mapped across the contiguous U.S. at ~90 m resolution within both conditional (2,475-year design event) and unconditional (return period of ground failure) formulations using high-performance computing for the high-resolution magnitude-disaggregation. The resulting NLHMs provide insights for land-use policy, preliminary site assessment, regional-scale earthquake simulation and response planning, and screening tools for regulatory enforcement, among other applications. Beyond quantifying and visualizing liquefaction hazard, the NLHMs are used herein to examine three questions of engineering practice and policy across a continuous spatial domain: (i) the effect of selecting modal versus mean magnitude in conditional analyses; (ii) the differences between conditional and unconditional hazard formulations; and (iii) the extent to which liquefaction hazard compounds with socioeconomic vulnerability. Results elucidate where and how the choice of magnitude alters computed hazards; that unconditional maps reveal important spatial deviations suppressed by single-scenario maps, which are convenient and widely used in current building codes, but less than completely rational; and that modest but statistically significant socioeconomic gradients in liquefaction exposure exist.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

Have Large Language Models Enhanced the Way Civil & Environmental Engineers Write? A Quantitative Analysis of Scholarly Communication over 25 Years

Large language models (LLMs) have rapidly emerged in civil and environmental engineering (CEE) research, education, and practice as tools for project ideation, execution, and communication. However, it is unknown how prevalent LLM adoption is across CEE scholarship and whether it measurably alters research prose. Inspired by recent analyses of biomedical research, this study uses a vocabulary-based frequency-shift methodology to detect linguistic signals of LLM-assisted writing in a large corpus of CEE literature. A total of 149,452 abstracts published by the American Society of Civil Engineers from 2000 through 2025 are analyzed to quantify deviations from long-term vocabulary trends. Prior to the introduction of LLMs in 2022, CEE publications exhibit long-term trends toward longer abstracts and sentences, greater use of segmenting punctuation, higher required reading levels, and a shift toward active, first-person verb constructions. Beginning around 2023, however, the frequencies of many stylistic marker words (e.g., enhance) sharply depart from historical trajectories, accompanied by deviations in multiple semantic properties. Abstracts classified as likely LLM-assisted exhibit increased lexical diversity, comma use, and complexity, with reduced passive voice and hedging language, producing prose that is more segmented, complex, and confident. The AI contribution of this study lies in the use of natural language processing to identify population-level linguistic signals of LLM-assisted text, applied to quantify the prevalence of LLM use and its influence on the vocabulary, structure, and tone of engineering scholarly writing. Together, these findings provide the first large-scale, data-driven assessment of how LLMs are beginning to reshape scholarly communication in CEE.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2026

A Framework for Modeling Liquefaction-Induced Road Disruptions After Earthquakes: Implications for Emergency Response and Access in the Cascadia Region of North America

Large earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) are expected to trigger widespread soil liquefaction that could disrupt transportation systems across the U.S. Pacific Northwest. However, past regional assessments have relied on simple geologic screening methods and binomial shaking thresholds that are only loosely informed by liquefaction science. This study introduces a mechanics-informed, data-driven framework for estimating liquefaction-induced road closures and service reductions, and the framework is applied to a magnitude-9 CSZ earthquake. Predicted liquefaction severity is translated into segment-level probabilities of closure and reduced service using empirically derived fragility relationships. These probabilities are mapped at 90-m resolution and propagated through the National Highway System using a spatially correlated Monte Carlo simulation to estimate link-level disruption. Results show that impacts are concentrated in low-lying coastal zones, river valleys, and urban waterfronts, with major disruptions expected along critical routes including U.S. Route 101. Local mobility is further examined in Pacific and Grays Harbor counties, Washington, where limited network redundancy, strong shaking, and high liquefaction susceptibility lead to elevated probabilities of isolation and loss of hospital access. Socioeconomic analysis reveals modest but statistically significant associations between road impacts and demographic indicators, suggesting that liquefaction impacts may compound with existing social vulnerabilities. While not a substitute for site-specific analysis, the results provide a regional baseline for emergency planning, risk communication, and prioritization of more advanced geotechnical sampling and analysis. Moreover, the methodology proposed here is not specific to the CSZ, but rather, could be applied to analogous studies of road impacts elsewhere.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

Geospatial AI for Liquefaction Hazard and Impact Forecasting: A Demonstrative Study in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Recent large-magnitude earthquakes have demonstrated the damaging consequences of soil liquefaction and reinforced the need to understand and plan for liquefaction hazards at a regional scale. In the United States, the Pacific Northwest is uniquely vulnerable to such consequences given the potential for crustal, intraslab, and subduction zone earthquakes. In this study, the liquefaction hazard is predicted geospatially at high resolution and across regional scales for 85 scenario earthquakes in the states of Washington and Oregon. This is accomplished using an emergent geospatial model that is driven by machine learning, and which predicts the probability of damaging ground deformation by surrogating state-of-practice geotechnical models. The adopted model shows improved performance and has conceptual advantages over prior regional-scale modeling approaches in that predictions (i) are informed by mechanics, (ii) employ more geospatial information using machine learning, and (iii) are geostatistically anchored to known subsurface conditions. The utility of the resulting predictions for the 85 scenarios is then demonstrated via asset and network infrastructure vulnerability assessments. The liquefaction hazard forecasts are published in a GIS-ready, public repository and are suitable for disaster simulations, evacuation route planning, network vulnerability analysis, land-use planning, insurance loss modeling, hazard communication, public investment prioritization, and other regional-scale applications.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

Assessing the impact of contact time on leachate chemistry from recycled concrete aggregates

Recycled concrete aggregate (RCA) is recognized as a readily available, mechanically sufficient construction and demolition waste product that is suitable as a base course substitute for natural, virgin aggregate in pavement construction. Environmentally responsible applications of RCA must consider the high alkalinity, high pH leachate, and heavy metal leaching risks reported in the literature. The existing body of literature does not address discrepancies between field and laboratory measurements of RCA leachate pH, nor are there any existing studies of aged RCA leachate composition as a function of time. To consider the influence of contact time on RCA leachate, the present study evaluates recovered RCA base course samples from the Minnesota Road Research highway construction study site using modified batch test methodology. Leachate pH, alkalinity, and calcium ion (Ca2+) concentration were monitored for 24 hours to understand RCA leachate chemistry during the initial contact period. Leachate pH is high upon initial contact with water (pH > 10) and decreases over time as it reacts with atmospheric carbon dioxide. Calcium ion concentration increases rapidly in the initial contact period, then more gradually as calcium saturation is reached. Alkalinity stabilizes (50-65 mg CaCO3/L) after a dramatic increase during the initial contact period.

physics.chem-ph↗

arXiv2025

Parametric modeling of shear wave velocity profiles for the conterminous U.S

Earthquake ground motions and the related damage can be significantly impacted by near-surface soils. Accurate predictions of seismic hazard require depth-continuous models of soil stiffness, commonly described in terms of shear-wave velocity (VS). For regional-scale studies, efforts to predict VS remotely, such as the U.S. Geological Survey's National Crustal Model, tend to emphasize deeper lithologic velocity structures, thus simplifying important near-surface soil velocity variations, and tend to be produced at relatively coarse geospatial resolution for one geographic area. In this study, we define a functional form to describe VS-with-depth across the conterminous U.S. We calibrate the parameters of the function using a national compilation of more than 9,000 in-situ geotechnical measurements. By coupling the parametric framework with geospatial machine learning, the model can be leveraged to provide consistent, high resolution VS-depth predictions of the near-surface geotechnical layer across the U.S., complementing the National Crustal Model and supporting applications such as physics-based ground motion simulations and coseismic hazard assessments.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

2025 EERI LFE Travel Study -- Mexico: Lessons in soft soils, subsidence, and site effects

The 1985 M8.1 Mexico City earthquake marked a turning point in Mexican earthquake engineering, underscoring the influence of soft soils, subsidence, and site effects on seismic performance in the Valley of Mexico. In the four decades since, both research and engineering practice have evolved significantly, shaped by subsequent events such as the 2017 M7.1 Puebla-Morelos earthquake. Integrating observations made during the Learning from Earthquakes Travel Study program and desk study findings, this paper summarizes the progression of geotechnical knowledge and practice in Mexico City, through the lessons of 1985 and 2017, through the lens of site effects, soil zonation, subsidence and emerging directions and future trends.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

Mechanics-Informed Machine Learning for Geospatial Modeling of Soil Liquefaction: Global and National Surrogate Models for Simulation and Near-Real-Time Response

Using machine learning (ML), high performance computing, and a large body of geospatial information, we develop surrogate models to predict soil liquefaction across regional scales. Two sets of models - one global and one specific to New Zealand - are trained by learning to mimic geotechnical models at the sites of in-situ tests. Our geospatial approach has conceptual advantages in that predictions: (i) are anchored to mechanics, which encourages more sensible response and scaling across the domains of soil, site, and loading characteristics; (ii) are driven by ML, which allows more predictive information to be used, with greater potential for it to be exploited; (iii) are geostatistically updated by subsurface data, which anchors the predictions to known conditions; and (iv) are precomputed everywhere on earth for all conceivable earthquakes, which allows the models to be executed very easily, thus encouraging user adoption and evaluation. Test applications suggest that: (i) the proposed models outperform others to a statistically significant degree; (ii) the geostatistical updating further improves performance; and (iii) the anticipated advantages of region-specific models may largely be negated by the benefits of learning from larger global datasets. These models are best suited for regional-scale liquefaction hazard simulation and near-real-time response and are accompanied by variance products that convey where, and to what degree, the ML-predicted liquefaction response is influenced by local geotechnical data.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

Why "AI" Models for Predicting Soil Liquefaction have been Ignored, Plus Some that Shouldn't Be

Soil liquefaction remains an important and interesting problem that has attracted the development of enumerable prediction models. Increasingly, these models are utilizing algorithmic learning, or "artificial intelligence" (AI). The rapid growth of AI in the liquefaction literature is unsurprising, given its ease of implementation and potential advantages over traditional statistical methods. However, AI liquefaction models have been widely ignored by practitioners and researchers alike; the objective of this paper is to investigate "why?" Through a sample review of 75 publications, we identify several good reasons. Namely, these models frequently: (i) are not compared to state-of-practice models, making it unclear why they should be adopted; (ii) depart from best practices in model development; (iii) use AI in ways that may not be useful; (iv) are presented in ways that overstate their complexity and make them unapproachable; and (v) are discussed but not actually provided, meaning that no one can use the models even if they wanted to. These prevailing problems must be understood, identified, and remedied, but this does not mean that AI itself is problematic, or that all prior efforts have been without merit or utility. Instead, understanding these recurrent shortcomings can help improve the direction and perceptions of this growing body of work. Towards this end, we highlight papers that are generally free from these shortcomings, and which demonstrate applications where AI is more likely to provide value in the near term: permitting new modeling approaches and potentially improving predictions of liquefaction phenomena.

cs.CE↗