arXiv subjects

Morgan R. Edwards

Publications and source records attributed to Morgan R. Edwards.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Assessing innovation in the nascent value chains of climate-mitigating technologies

Accelerating climate-tech innovation in the formative stage of the technology life cycle is crucial to meeting climate policy goals. During this period, competing technologies are often undergoing major technical improvements within a nascent value chain. We analyze this formative stage for 14 climate-tech sectors using a dataset of 4,172 North American firms receiving 12,929 early-stage private investments between 2006 and 2021. Investments in these firms reveal that commercialization occurs in five distinct product clusters across the value chain. Only 15% of firms develop end products (i.e., downstream products bought by consumers), while 59% support these end products through components, manufacturing processes, or optimization products, and 26% develop business services. Detailed analysis of the temporal evolution of investments reveals the driving forces behind the technologies that commercialize, such as innovation spillovers, coalescence around a dominant design, and flexible regulatory frameworks. We identify three patterns of innovation: emerging innovation (e.g., agriculture), characterized by recent growth in private investments across most product clusters and spillover from other sectors; ongoing innovation (e.g., energy storage), characterized by multiple waves of investments in evolving products; and maturing innovation (e.g., energy efficiency), characterized by a dominant end product with a significant share of investments in optimization and services. Understanding the development of nascent value chains can inform policy design to best support scaling of climate-tech by identifying underfunded elements in the value chain and supporting development of a full value chain rather than only end products.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2025

Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers

Electrification presents opportunities and challenges for household energy affordability. Without careful coordination, the costs of natural gas systems will be borne by a shrinking customer base, driving up bills for those left behind. This affordability issue is worsened by new pipeline investments, which risk locking communities into carbon-intensive infrastructure. Here, we introduce a framework to quantify the effects of uncoordinated electrification on natural gas customers, integrating household energy data with utility financial and planning documents. Applying our framework first to Massachusetts and then nationwide, we show that vulnerable communities face disproportionate affordability risks during heating electrification transitions. Households that do not electrify may bear a 46% increase in energy bills on average over the next 15 years (relative to current costs). Targeted electrification may help to alleviate energy burdens, but an effective heating transition will ultimately require coordinated, neighborhood-scale strategies that consider the high fixed costs of legacy infrastructure.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Assessing inequities in electrification via heat pumps across the U.S

Heat pumps are an energy-efficient and increasingly cost-effective solution for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector. However, other clean energy technologies such as rooftop solar are less likely to be adopted in underserved communities, and thus policies incentivizing their adoption may funnel tax dollars to well-resourced communities. Unlike previously-studied technologies, the effects of heat pumps on household energy bills may be positive or negative depending on local climate, fuel availability and costs, and other factors. Here we propose a framework for assessing heat pump inequities across the U.S. We find that households in communities of color and with higher percentages of renters are less likely to use heat pumps across the board. Moreover, communities of color are least likely to use heat pumps in regions where they are most likely to reduce energy bills. Public policies must address these inequities to advance beneficial electrification and energy justice.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Timelines for mitigating methane emissions from energy technologies

Energy technologies emitting differing proportions of methane and carbon dioxide vary in their relative climate impacts over time, due to the different atmospheric lifetimes of the two gases. Standard technology comparisons using the global warming potential (GWP) emissions equivalency metric do not reveal these dynamic impacts, and may not provide the information needed to assess technologies and emissions mitigation opportunities in the context of broader climate policy goals. Here we formulate a portfolio optimization model that incorporates changes in technology impacts as a radiative forcing (RF) stabilization target is approached. An optimal portfolio, maximizing allowed energy consumption while meeting the RF target, is obtained by year-wise minimization of the marginal RF impact in an intended stabilization year. The optimal portfolio calls for using certain higher methane-emitting technologies prior to an optimal switching year, followed by methane-light technologies as the stabilization year approaches. The model is applied to transportation technology pairs and shows that, by accounting for the differing decay behavior of gases, optimal switching portfolios allow energy consumption gains of up to 50% compared to relying on the higher methane-emitting technology alone. The results allow for estimates of target timelines for mitigating methane emissions from energy technologies.

physics.soc-ph↗