arXiv subjects

Morgane Menz

Publications and source records attributed to Morgane Menz.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Girsanov Reweighting for Uncertainty Propagation in Rare-Event Kinetics

Machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have become a powerful tool for rare event sampling in molecular dynamics, offering near ab initio accuracy at a fraction of the computational cost. However, the uncertainty associated with these models remains a major challenge. Existing uncertainty quantification approaches have largely focused on point-wise quantities, such as energies and forces, or on equilibrium thermodynamic observables. In this work, we introduce a framework for propagating MLIP uncertainty to the averaged committor probability, a kinetic observable that enables reaction-rate calculations. Our approach combines rare event sampling methods such as Adaptive Multilevel Splitting with Girsanov reweighting to estimate the sensitivity of committor probabilities to variations in MLIP parameters, without requiring the costly resampling of reactive trajectories for each parameter realization. We derive exact and approximate Girsanov-based estimators for uncertainty propagation and validate them on several benchmark systems, including a rugged Muller-Brown potential, a dimer in a solvent, and the conformational transition of butane. The proposed framework enables the construction of uncertainty-aware probability distributions for rare event observables and successfully recovers reference rare event probabilities from uncertain surrogate models. Under mild assumptions on the accuracy of the MLIP within metastable basins, the framework can also provide uncertainty bounds on reaction rates through Hill's relation. These results demonstrate that path-space reweighting provides an efficient route for propagating MLIP uncertainty to rare event kinetics.

physics.chem-ph↗

arXiv2020

Variance based sensitivity analysis for Monte Carlo and importance sampling reliability assessment with Gaussian processes

Running a reliability analysis on engineering problems involving complex numerical models can be computationally very expensive, requiring advanced simulation methods to reduce the overall numerical cost. Gaussian process based active learning methods for reliability analysis have emerged as a promising way for reducing this computational cost. The learning phase of these methods consists in building a Gaussian process surrogate model of the performance function and using the uncertainty structure of the Gaussian process to enrich iteratively this surrogate model. For that purpose a learning criterion has to be defined. Then, the estimation of the probability of failure is typically obtained by a classification of a population evaluated on the final surrogate model. Hence, the estimator of the probability of failure holds two different uncertainty sources related to the surrogate model approximation and to the sampling based integration technique. In this paper, we propose a methodology to quantify the sensitivity of the probability of failure estimator to both uncertainty sources. This analysis also enables to control the whole error associated to the failure probability estimate and thus provides an accuracy criterion on the estimation. Thus, an active learning approach integrating this analysis to reduce the main source of error and stopping when the global variability is sufficiently low is introduced. The approach is proposed for both a Monte Carlo based method as well as an importance sampling based method, seeking to improve the estimation of rare event probabilities. Performance of the proposed strategy is then assessed on several examples.

stat.ML↗