arXiv subjects

Moritz Jirak

Publications and source records attributed to Moritz Jirak.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Asset-specific limit order microstructure noise: Parameter estimation and empirical evidence

The one-sided microstructure noise model for high-frequency quotes from a limit order book is generalized to capture asset-specific noise tail behaviour. Estimation of a noise tail parameter becomes the key step for inference. This is possible based on moments of the high-frequency returns when specifying a parametric noise model. For a Gamma noise distribution, we establish a central limit theorem for 1-dependent observations from the resulting Gamma difference distribution and prove that it is valid also in the convolution model with general semimartingale log-price dynamics. We highlight that the noise tail parameter has important implications for estimating the efficient price and its volatility. An empirical analysis of recent NASDAQ limit order book data demonstrates that asset-specific noise tail parameters are relevant in practice.

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arXiv2026

Asymptotic equivalence for nonparametric additive regression

We prove asymptotic equivalence of nonparametric additive regression and an appropriate Gaussian white noise experiment in which a multidimensional shifted Wiener process is observed, whose dimension equals the number of additive components. The shift depends on the additive components of the regression function and solely the one- and two-dimensional marginal distributions of the covariates via an explicitly specified bounded but non-compact linear operator~$\Gamma$. The number of additive components $d$ is allowed to increase moderately with respect to the sample size. In the special case of pairwise independent components of the covariates, the white noise model decomposes into $d$ independent univariate processes. Moreover, we study approximation in some semiparametric setting where $\Gamma$ splits into a multiplication operator and an asymptotically negligible Hilbert-Schmidt operator.

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arXiv2025

Weak dependence and optimal quantitative self-normalized central limit theorems

Consider a stationary, weakly dependent sequence of random variables. Given only mild conditions, allowing for polynomial decay of the autocovariance function, we show a Berry-Esseen bound of optimal order $n^{-1/2}$ for studentized (self-normalized) partial sums, both for the Kolmogorov and Wasserstein (and $L^p$) distance. The results show that, in general, (minimax) optimal estimators of the long-run variance lead to suboptimal bounds in the central limit theorem, that is, the rate $n^{-1/2}$ cannot be reached. This can be salvaged by simple methods: In order to maintain the optimal speed of convergence $n^{-1/2}$, simple over-smoothing within a certain range is necessary and sufficient. The setup contains many prominent dynamical systems and time series models, including random walks on the general linear group, products of positive random matrices, functionals of Garch models of any order, functionals of dynamical systems arising from SDEs, iterated random functions and many more.

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arXiv2025

Nonparametric local polynomial regression for functional covariates

We consider nonparametric regression with functional covariates, that is, they are elements of an infinite-dimensional Hilbert space. A locally polynomial estimator is constructed, where an orthonormal basis and various tuning parameters remain to be selected. We provide a general asymptotic upper bound on the estimation error and show that this procedure achieves polynomial convergence rates under appropriate tuning and supersmoothness of the regression function. Such polynomial convergence rates have usually been considered to be non-attainable in nonparametric functional regression without any additional strong structural constraints such as linearity of the regression function.

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arXiv2024

Concentration and moment inequalities for sums of independent heavy-tailed random matrices

We prove Fuk-Nagaev and Rosenthal-type inequalities for sums of independent random matrices, focusing on the situation when the norms of the matrices possess finite moments of only low orders. Our bounds depend on the ``intrinsic'' dimensional characteristics such as the effective rank, as opposed to the dimension of the ambient space. We illustrate the advantages of such results through several applications, including new moment inequalities for sample covariance matrices and their eigenvectors when the underlying distribution is heavy-tailed. Moreover, we demonstrate that our techniques yield sharpened versions of moment inequalities for empirical processes.

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arXiv2024

Sharp oracle inequalities and universality of the AIC and FPE

In two landmark papers, Akaike introduced the AIC and FPE, demonstrating their significant usefulness for prediction. In subsequent seminal works, Shibata developed a notion of asymptotic efficiency and showed that both AIC and FPE are optimal, setting the stage for decades-long developments and research in this area and beyond. Conceptually, the theory of efficiency is universal in the sense that it (formally) only relies on second-order properties of the underlying process $(X_t)_{t\in \mathbb{Z}}$, but, so far, almost all (efficiency) results require the much stronger assumption of a linear process with independent innovations. In this work, we establish sharp oracle inequalities subject only to a very general notion of weak dependence, establishing a universal property of the AIC and FPE. A direct corollary of our inequalities is asymptotic efficiency of these criteria. Our framework contains many prominent dynamical systems such as random walks on the regular group, functionals of iterated random systems, functionals of (augmented) Garch models of any order, functionals of (Banach space valued) linear processes, possibly infinite memory Markov chains, dynamical systems arising from SDEs, and many more.

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arXiv2022

Sharp connections between Berry-Esseen characteristics and Edgeworth expansions for stationary processes

Given a weakly dependent stationary process, we describe the transition between a Berry-Esseen bound and a second order Edgeworth expansion in terms of the Berry-Esseen characteristic. This characteristic is sharp: We show that Edgeworth expansions are valid if and only if the Berry-Esseen characteristic is of a certain magnitude. If this is not the case, we still get an optimal Berry-Esseen bound, thus describing the exact transition. We also obtain (fractional) expansions given $3 < p \leq 4$ moments, where a similar transition occurs. Corresponding results also hold for the Wasserstein metric $W_1$, where a related, integrated characteristic turns out to be optimal. As an application, we establish novel weak Edgeworth expansion and CLTs in $L^p$ and $W_1$. As another application, we show that a large class of high dimensional linear statistics admit Edgeworth expansions without any smoothness constraints, that is, no non-lattice condition or related is necessary. In all results, the necessary weak-dependence assumptions are very mild. In particular, we show that many prominent dynamical systems and models from time series analysis are within our framework, giving rise to many new results in these areas.

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arXiv2022

Edgeworth expansions for volatility models

Motivated from option and derivative pricing, this note develops Edgeworth expansions both in the Kolmogorov and Wasserstein metric for many different types of discrete time volatility models and their possible transformations. This includes, among others, Hölder-type functions of (augmented) Garch processes of any order, iterated random functions or Volterra-processes.

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arXiv2022

Quantitative limit theorems and bootstrap approximations for empirical spectral projectors

Given finite i.i.d.~samples in a Hilbert space with zero mean and trace-class covariance operator $\Sigma$, the problem of recovering the spectral projectors of $\Sigma$ naturally arises in many applications. In this paper, we consider the problem of finding distributional approximations of the spectral projectors of the empirical covariance operator $\hat \Sigma$, and offer a dimension-free framework where the complexity is characterized by the so-called relative rank of $\Sigma$. In this setting, novel quantitative limit theorems and bootstrap approximations are presented subject only to mild conditions in terms of moments and spectral decay. In many cases, these even improve upon existing results in a Gaussian setting.

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arXiv2022

A Berry-Esseen bound with (almost) sharp dependence conditions

Suppose that the (normalised) partial sum of a stationary sequence converges to a standard normal random variable. Given sufficiently moments, when do we have a rate of convergence of $n^{-1/2}$ in the uniform metric, in other words, when do we have the optimal Berry-Esseen bound? We study this question in a quite general framework and find the (almost) sharp dependence conditions. The result applies to many different processes and dynamical systems. As specific, prominent examples, we study functions of the doubling map 2x mod 1 and the left random walk on the general linear group.

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arXiv2022

Relative perturbation bounds with applications to empirical covariance operators

The goal of this paper is to establish relative perturbation bounds, tailored for empirical covariance operators. Our main results are expansions for empirical eigenvalues and spectral projectors, leading to concentration inequalities and limit theorems. One of the key ingredients is a specific separation measure for population eigenvalues, which we call the relative rank, giving rise to a sharp invariance principle in terms of limit theorems, concentration inequalities and inconsistency results. Our framework is very general, requiring only $p > 4$ moments and allows for a huge variety of dependence structures.

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arXiv2022

Time-varying first-order autoregressive processes with irregular innovations

We consider a time-varying first-order autoregressive model with irregular innovations, where we assume that the coefficient function is H\"{o}lder continuous. To estimate this function, we use a quasi-maximum likelihood based approach. A precise control of this method demands a delicate analysis of extremes of certain weakly dependent processes, our main result being a concentration inequality for such quantities. Based on our analysis, upper and matching minimax lower bounds are derived, showing the optimality of our estimators. Unlike the regular case, the information theoretic complexity depends both on the smoothness and an additional shape parameter, characterizing the irregularity of the underlying distribution. The results and ideas for the proofs are very different from classical and more recent methods in connection with statistics and inference for locally stationary processes.

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arXiv2020

Berry-Esseen theorems under weak dependence

Let $\{{X}_k\}_{k\geq\mathbb{Z}}$ be a stationary sequence. Given $p\in(2,3]$ moments and a mild weak dependence condition, we show a Berry-Esseen theorem with optimal rate $n^{p/2-1}$. For $p\geq4$, we also show a convergence rate of $n^{1/2}$ in $\mathcal{L}^q$-norm, where $q\geq1$. Up to $\log n$ factors, we also obtain nonuniform rates for any $p>2$. This leads to new optimal results for many linear and nonlinear processes from the time series literature, but also includes examples from dynamical system theory. The proofs are based on a hybrid method of characteristic functions, coupling and conditioning arguments and ideal metrics.

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arXiv2018

Perturbation bounds for eigenspaces under a relative gap condition

A basic problem in operator theory is to estimate how a small perturbation effects the eigenspaces of a self-adjoint compact operator. In this paper, we prove upper bounds for the subspace distance, taylored for structured random perturbations. As a main example, we consider the empirical covariance operator, and show that a sharp bound can be achieved under a relative gap condition. The proof is based on a novel contraction phenomenon, contrasting previous spectral perturbation approaches.

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arXiv2017

Uniform change point tests in high dimension

Consider $d$ dependent change point tests, each based on a CUSUM-statistic. We provide an asymptotic theory that allows us to deal with the maximum over all test statistics as both the sample size $n$ and $d$ tend to infinity. We achieve this either by a consistent bootstrap or an appropriate limit distribution. This allows for the construction of simultaneous confidence bands for dependent change point tests, and explicitly allows us to determine the location of the change both in time and coordinates in high-dimensional time series. If the underlying data has sample size greater or equal $n$ for each test, our conditions explicitly allow for the large $d$ small $n$ situation, that is, where $n/d\to0$. The setup for the high-dimensional time series is based on a general weak dependence concept. The conditions are very flexible and include many popular multivariate linear and nonlinear models from the literature, such as ARMA, GARCH and related models. The construction of the tests is completely nonparametric, difficulties associated with parametric model selection, model fitting and parameter estimation are avoided. Among other things, the limit distribution for $\max_{1\leq h\leq d}\sup_{0\leq t\leq1}\vert \mathcal{W}_{t,h}-t\mathcal{W}_{1,h}\vert$ is established, where $\{\mathcal{W}_{t,h}\}_{1\leq h\leq d}$ denotes a sequence of dependent Brownian motions. As an application, we analyze all S&P 500 companies over a period of one year.

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arXiv2017

Rate of convergence for Hilbert space valued processes

Consider a stationary, linear Hilbert space valued process. We establish Berry-Essen type results with optimal convergence rates under sharp dependence conditions on the underlying coefficient sequence of the linear operators. The case of non-linear Bernoulli-shift sequences is also considered. If the sequence is $m$-dependent, the optimal rate $(n/m)^{1/2}$ is reached. If the sequence is weakly geometrically dependent, the rate $(n/\log n)^{1/2}$ is obtained.

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arXiv2016

Optimal eigen expansions and uniform bounds

Let $\bigl\{X_k\bigr\}_{k \in \mathbb{Z}} \in \mathbb{L}^2(\mathcal{T})$ be a stationary process with associated lag operators ${\boldsymbol{\cal C}}_h$. Uniform asymptotic expansions of the corresponding empirical eigenvalues and eigenfunctions are established under almost optimal conditions on the lag operators in terms of the eigenvalues (spectral gap). In addition, the underlying dependence assumptions are optimal, including both short and long memory processes. This allows us to study the relative maximum deviation of the empirical eigenvalues under very general conditions. Among other things, we show convergence to an extreme value distribution, giving rise to the construction of simultaneous confidence sets. We also discuss how the asymptotic expansions transfer to the long-run covariance operator ${\boldsymbol{\cal G}}$ in a general framework.

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arXiv2016

Nonparametric change-point analysis of volatility

This work develops change-point methods for statistics of high-frequency data. The main interest is in the volatility of an Itô semi-martingale, the latter being discretely observed over a fixed time horizon. We construct a minimax-optimal test to discriminate continuous paths from paths comprising volatility jumps. This is embedded into a more general theory to infer the smoothness of volatilities. In a high-frequency framework we prove weak convergence of the test statistic under the hypothesis to an extreme value distribution. Moreover, we develop methods to infer changes in the Hurst parameter of fractional volatility processes. A simulation study demonstrates the practical value in finite-sample applications.

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