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Moritz Voß

Publications and source records attributed to Moritz Voß.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

Solving Optimal Execution Problems via In-Context Operator Networks

We propose a novel transformer-based neural network architecture (ICON-OCnet) for solving optimal order execution problems in the presence of unknown price impact. Our architecture facilitates data-driven in-context operator learning for the incurred price impact by merging offline pre-training with online few-shot prompting inference. First, the operator learning component (ICON) learns the prevailing price impact environment from only a few executed trade and price impact trajectories (time series data) provided as context. Second, we employ ICON as a surrogate operator to train a neural network policy (OCnet) for the optimal order execution strategy for the price impact regime inferred from the in-context examples. We study the efficiency of our approach for linear propagator models with path-dependent transient price impact and explicitly known optimal execution strategies. In this model class, price impact persists and decays over time according to some propagator kernel. We illustrate that ICON is capable of accurately inferring the underlying price impact model from the data prompts, even for propagator kernels not seen in the training data. Moreover, we demonstrate that ICON-OCnet correctly retrieves the exact optimal order execution strategy for the model generating the in-context examples. Our introduced methodology is very general, offering a new approach to solving path-dependent optimal stochastic control problems sample-based with unknown state dynamics.

q-fin.TR

Aggregation of financial markets

We present a formal framework for the aggregation of financial markets mediated by arbitrage. Our main tool is to characterize markets via utility functions and to employ a one-to-one correspondence to limit order book states. Inspired by the theory of thermodynamics, we argue that the arbitrage-mediated aggregation mechanism gives rise to a market-dynamical entropy, which quantifies the loss of liquidity caused by aggregation. As a concrete guiding example, we illustrate our general approach with the Uniswap v2 automated market maker protocol used in decentralized cryptocurrency exchanges, which we characterize as a so-called ideal market. We derive its equivalent limit order book representation and explicitly compute the arbitrage-mediated aggregation of two liquidity pools of the same asset pair with different marginal prices. We also discuss future directions of research in this emerging theory of market dynamics.

q-fin.MF

On Parametric Optimal Execution and Machine Learning Surrogates

We investigate optimal order execution problems in discrete time with instantaneous price impact and stochastic resilience. First, in the setting of linear transient price impact we derive a closed-form recursion for the optimal strategy, extending the deterministic results from Obizhaeva and Wang (J Financial Markets, 2013). Second, we develop a numerical algorithm based on dynamic programming and deep learning for the case of nonlinear transient price impact as proposed by Bouchaud et al. (Quant. Finance, 2004). Specifically, we utilize an actor-critic framework that constructs two neural-network (NN) surrogates for the value function and the feedback control. The flexible scalability of NN functional approximators enables parametric learning, i.e., incorporating several model or market parameters as part of the input space. Precise calibration of price impact, resilience, etc., is known to be extremely challenging and hence it is critical to understand sensitivity of the execution policy to these parameters. Our NN learner organically scales across multiple input dimensions and is shown to accurately approximate optimal strategies across a wide range of parameter configurations. We provide a fully reproducible Jupyter Notebook with our NN implementation, which is of independent pedagogical interest, demonstrating the ease of use of NN surrogates in (parametric) stochastic control problems.

q-fin.TR

Equilibrium in Functional Stochastic Games with Mean-Field Interaction

We consider a general class of finite-player stochastic games with mean-field interaction, in which the linear-quadratic cost functional includes linear operators acting on controls in $L^2$. We propose a novel approach for deriving the Nash equilibrium of the game semi-explicitly in terms of operator resolvents, by reducing the associated first order conditions to a system of stochastic Fredholm equations of the second kind and deriving their solution in semi-explicit form. Furthermore, by proving stability results for the system of stochastic Fredholm equations, we derive the convergence of the equilibrium of the $N$-player game to the corresponding mean-field equilibrium. As a by-product, we also derive an $\varepsilon$-Nash equilibrium for the mean-field game, which is valuable in this setting as we show that the conditions for existence of an equilibrium in the mean-field limit are less restrictive than in the finite-player game. Finally, we apply our general framework to solve various examples, such as stochastic Volterra linear-quadratic games, models of systemic risk and advertising with delay, and optimal liquidation games with transient price impact.

math.OC

Trading with the Crowd

We formulate and solve a multi-player stochastic differential game between financial agents who seek to cost-efficiently liquidate their position in a risky asset in the presence of jointly aggregated transient price impact, along with taking into account a common general price predicting signal. The unique Nash-equilibrium strategies reveal how each agent's liquidation policy adjusts the predictive trading signal to the aggregated transient price impact induced by all other agents. This unfolds a quantitative relation between trading signals and the order flow in crowded markets. We also formulate and solve the corresponding mean field game in the limit of infinitely many agents. We prove that the equilibrium trading speed and the value function of an agent in the finite $N$-player game converges to the corresponding trading speed and value function in the mean field game at rate $O(N^{-2})$. In addition, we prove that the mean field optimal strategy provides an approximate Nash-equilibrium for the finite-player game.

q-fin.TR

A two-player portfolio tracking game

We study the competition of two strategic agents for liquidity in the benchmark portfolio tracking setup of Bank, Soner, Voß (2017). Specifically, both agents track their own stochastic running trading targets while interacting through common aggregated temporary and permanent price impact à la Almgren and Chriss (2001). The resulting stochastic linear quadratic differential game with terminal state constraints allows for a unique and explicitly available open-loop Nash equilibrium. Our results reveal how the equilibrium strategies of the two players take into account the other agent's trading targets: either in an exploitative intent or by providing liquidity to the competitor, depending on the relation between temporary and permanent price impact. As a consequence, different behavioral patterns can emerge as optimal in equilibrium. These insights complement and extend existing studies in the literature on predatory trading models examined in the context of optimal portfolio liquidation games.

q-fin.MF

Optimal Signal-Adaptive Trading with Temporary and Transient Price Impact

We study optimal liquidation in the presence of linear temporary and transient price impact along with taking into account a general price predicting finite-variation signal. We formulate this problem as minimization of a cost-risk functional over a class of absolutely continuous and signal-adaptive strategies. The stochastic control problem is solved by following a probabilistic and convex analytic approach. We show that the optimal trading strategy is given by a system of four coupled forward-backward SDEs, which can be solved explicitly. Our results reveal how the induced transient price distortion provides together with the predictive signal an additional predictor about future price changes. As a consequence, the optimal signal-adaptive trading rate trades off exploiting the predictive signal against incurring the transient displacement of the execution price from its unaffected level. This answers an open question from Lehalle and Neuman [29] as we show how to derive the unique optimal signal-adaptive liquidation strategy when price impact is not only temporary but also transient.

q-fin.TR

Optimal investment with transient price impact

We introduce a price impact model which accounts for finite market depth, tightness and resilience. Its coupled bid- and ask-price dynamics induce convex liquidity costs. We provide existence of an optimal solution to the classical problem of maximizing expected utility from terminal liquidation wealth at a finite planning horizon. In the specific case when market uncertainty is generated by an arithmetic Brownian motion with drift and the investor exhibits constant absolute risk aversion, we show that the resulting singular optimal stochastic control problem readily reduces to a deterministic optimal tracking problem of the optimal frictionless constant Merton portfolio in the presence of convex costs. Rather than studying the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellmann PDE, we exploit convex analytic and calculus of variations techniques allowing us to construct the solution explicitly and to describe the free boundaries of the action- and non-action regions in the underlying state space. As expected, it is optimal to trade towards the frictionless Merton position, taking into account the initial bid-ask spread as well as the optimal liquidation of the accrued position when approaching terminal time. It turns out that this leads to a surprisingly rich phenomenology of possible trajectories for the optimal share holdings.

q-fin.MF

Linear quadratic stochastic control problems with stochastic terminal constraint

We study a linear quadratic optimal control problem with stochastic coefficients and a terminal state constraint, which may be in force merely on a set with positive, but not necessarily full probability. Under such a partial terminal constraint, the usual approach via a coupled system of a backward stochastic Riccati equation and a linear backward equation breaks down. As a remedy, we introduce a family of auxiliary problems parametrized by the supersolutions to this Riccati equation alone. The target functional of these problems dominates the original constrained one and allows for an explicit description of both the optimal control policy and the auxiliary problem's value in terms of a suitably constructed optimal signal process. This suggests that, for the minimal supersolution of the Riccati equation, the minimizers of the auxiliary problem coincide with those of the original problem, a conjecture that we see confirmed in all examples understood so far.

math.OC

Hedging with Temporary Price Impact

We consider the problem of hedging a European contingent claim in a Bachelier model with transient price impact as proposed by Almgren and Chriss. Following the approach of Rogers and Singh and Naujokat and Westray, the hedging problem can be regarded as a cost optimal tracking problem of the frictionless hedging strategy. We solve this problem explicitly for general predictable target hedging strategies. It turns out that, rather than towards the current target position, the optimal policy trades towards a weighted average of expected future target positions. This generalizes an observation of Garleanu and Pedersen from their homogenous Markovian optimal investment problem to a general hedging problem. Our findings complement a number of previous studies in the literature on optimal strategies in illiquid markets where the frictionless strategy is confined to diffusions. The consideration of general predictable reference strategies is made possible by the use of a convex analysis approach instead of the more common dynamic programming methods.

q-fin.MF