arXiv subjects

Moshe Ben-Akiva

Publications and source records attributed to Moshe Ben-Akiva.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

A Multi-day Needs-based Modeling Approach for Activity and Travel Demand Analysis

This paper proposes a multi-day needs-based model for activity and travel demand analysis. The model captures the multi-day dynamics in activity generation, which enables the modeling of activities with increased flexibility in time and space (e.g., e-commerce and remote working). As an enhancement to activity-based models, the proposed model captures the underlying decision-making process of activity generation by accounting for psychological needs as the drivers of activities. The level of need satisfaction is modeled as a psychological inventory, whose utility is optimized via decisions on activity participation, location, and duration. The utility includes both the benefit in the inventory gained and the cost in time, monetary expense as well as maintenance of safety stock. The model includes two sub-models, a Deterministic Model that optimizes the utility of the inventory, and an Empirical Model that accounts for heterogeneity and stochasticity. Numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate model scalability. A maximum likelihood estimator is proposed, the properties of the log-likelihood function are examined and the recovery of true parameters is tested. This research contributes to the literature on transportation demand models in the following three aspects. First, it is arguably better grounded in psychological theory than traditional models and allows the generation of activity patterns to be policy-sensitive (while avoiding the need for ad hoc utility definitions). Second, it contributes to the development of needs-based models with a non-myopic approach to model multi-day activity patterns. Third, it proposes a tractable model formulation via problem reformulation and computational enhancements, which allows for maximum likelihood parameter estimation.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

Adaptive Transit Design: Optimizing Fixed and Demand Responsive Multi-Modal Transportation via Continuous Approximation

In most cities, transit consists solely of fixed-route transportation, whence the inherent limited Quality of Service for travellers in suburban areas and during off-peak periods. On the other hand, completely replacing fixed-route (FR) with demand-responsive (DR) transit would imply a huge operational cost. It is still unclear how to integrate DR transportation into current transit systems to take full advantage of it. We propose a Continuous Approximation model of a transit system that gets the best from fixed-route and DR transportation. Our model allows deciding whether to deploy a FR or a DR feeder, in each sub-region of an urban conurbation and each time of day, and to redesign the line frequencies and the stop spacing of the main trunk service. Since such a transit design can adapt to the spatial and temporal variation of the demand, we call it Adaptive Transit. Numerical results show that, with respect to conventional transit, Adaptive Transit significantly improves user-related cost, by drastically reducing access time to the main trunk service. Such benefits are particularly remarkable in the suburbs. Moreover, the generalized cost, including agency and user cost, is also reduced. These findings are also confirmed in scenarios with automated vehicles. Our model can assist in planning future-generation transit systems, able to improve urban mobility by appropriately combining fixed and DR transportation.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

A Neural-embedded Choice Model: TasteNet-MNL Modeling Taste Heterogeneity with Flexibility and Interpretability

Discrete choice models (DCMs) require a priori knowledge of the utility functions, especially how tastes vary across individuals. Utility misspecification may lead to biased estimates, inaccurate interpretations and limited predictability. In this paper, we utilize a neural network to learn taste representation. Our formulation consists of two modules: a neural network (TasteNet) that learns taste parameters (e.g., time coefficient) as flexible functions of individual characteristics; and a multinomial logit (MNL) model with utility functions defined with expert knowledge. Taste parameters learned by the neural network are fed into the choice model and link the two modules. Our approach extends the L-MNL model (Sifringer et al., 2020) by allowing the neural network to learn the interactions between individual characteristics and alternative attributes. Moreover, we formalize and strengthen the interpretability condition - requiring realistic estimates of behavior indicators (e.g., value-of-time, elasticity) at the disaggregated level, which is crucial for a model to be suitable for scenario analysis and policy decisions. Through a unique network architecture and parameter transformation, we incorporate prior knowledge and guide the neural network to output realistic behavior indicators at the disaggregated level. We show that TasteNet-MNL reaches the ground-truth model's predictability and recovers the nonlinear taste functions on synthetic data. Its estimated value-of-time and choice elasticities at the individual level are close to the ground truth. On a publicly available Swissmetro dataset, TasteNet-MNL outperforms benchmarking MNLs and Mixed Logit model's predictability. It learns a broader spectrum of taste variations within the population and suggests a higher average value-of-time.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2021

Screenline-based Two-step Calibration and its application to an agent-based urban freight simulator

Calibration is an essential process to make an agent-based simulator operational. Especially, the calibration for freight demand is challenging due to the model complexity and the shortage of available freight demand data compared with passenger data. This paper proposes a novel calibration method that relies solely on screenline counts, named Screenline-based Two-step Calibration (SLTC). SLTC consists of two parts: (1) tour-based demand adjustment and (2) model parameter updates. The former generates screenline-based tours by cloning/removing instances of the simulated goods vehicle tours, aiming to minimize the gaps between the observed and the simulated screenline counts. The latter updates the parameters of the commodity flow model which generates inputs to simulate goods vehicle tours. To demonstrate the practicality of the proposed method, we apply it to an agent-based urban freight simulator, SimMobility Freight. The result shows that SLTC allows the simulator to replicate the observed screenline counts with reasonable computational cost for calibration.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2021

Improving the Accuracy and Efficiency of Online Calibration for Simulation-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment

Simulation-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment models have important applications in real-time traffic management and control. The efficacy of these systems rests on the ability to generate accurate estimates and predictions of traffic states, which necessitates online calibration. A widely used solution approach for online calibration is the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), which -- although appealing in its flexibility to incorporate any class of parameters and measurements -- poses several challenges with regard to calibration accuracy and scalability, especially in congested situations for large-scale networks. This paper addresses these issues in turn so as to improve the accuracy and efficiency of EKF-based online calibration approaches for large and congested networks. First, the concept of state augmentation is revisited to handle violations of the Markovian assumption typically implicit in online applications of the EKF. Second, a method based on graph-coloring is proposed to operationalize the partitioned finite-difference approach that enhances scalability of the gradient computations. Several synthetic experiments and a real world case study demonstrate that application of the proposed approaches yields improvements in terms of both prediction accuracy and computational performance. The work has applications in real-world deployments of simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment systems.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

Discrete Choice Analysis with Machine Learning Capabilities

This paper discusses capabilities that are essential to models applied in policy analysis settings and the limitations of direct applications of off-the-shelf machine learning methodologies to such settings. Traditional econometric methodologies for building discrete choice models for policy analysis involve combining data with modeling assumptions guided by subject-matter considerations. Such considerations are typically most useful in specifying the systematic component of random utility discrete choice models but are typically of limited aid in determining the form of the random component. We identify an area where machine learning paradigms can be leveraged, namely in specifying and systematically selecting the best specification of the random component of the utility equations. We review two recent novel applications where mixed-integer optimization and cross-validation are used to algorithmically select optimal specifications for the random utility components of nested logit and logit mixture models subject to interpretability constraints.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Ride-sourcing Operation in Urban Area

The emergence of ride-sourcing platforms has brought an innovative alternative in transportation, radically changed travel behaviors, and suggested new directions for transportation planners and operators. This paper provides an exploratory analysis on the operations of a ride-sourcing service using large-scale data on service performance. Observations over multiple days in Singapore suggest reproducible demand patterns and provide empirical estimates of fleet operations over time and space. During peak periods, we observe significant increases in the service rate along with surge price multipliers. We perform an in-depth analysis of fleet utilization rates and are able to explain daily patterns based on drivers' behavior by involving the number of shifts, shift duration, and shift start and end time choices. We also evaluate metrics of user experience, namely waiting and travel time distribution, and explain our empirical findings with distance metrics from driver trajectory analysis and congestion patterns. Our results of empirical observations on actual service in Singapore can help to understand the spatiotemporal characteristics of ride-sourcing services and provide important insights for transportation planning and operations.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

Network Impacts of Automated Mobility-on-Demand: A Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram Perspective

Technological advancements have brought increasing attention to Automated Mobility on Demand (AMOD) as a promising solution that may improve future urban mobility. During the last decade, extensive research has been conducted on the design and evaluation of AMOD systems using simulation models. This paper adds to this growing body of literature by investigating the network impacts of AMOD through high-fidelity activity- and agent-based traffic simulation, including detailed models of AMOD fleet operations. Through scenario simulations of the entire island of Singapore, we explore network traffic dynamics by employing the concept of the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD). Taking into account the spatial variability of density, we are able to capture the hysteresis loops, which inevitably form in a network of this size. Model estimation results at both the vehicle and passenger flow level are documented. Environmental impacts including energy and emissions are also discussed. Findings from the case study of Singapore suggest that the introduction of AMOD may bring about significant impacts on network performance in terms of increased VKT, additional travel delay and energy consumption, while reducing vehicle emissions, with respect to the baseline. Despite the increase in network congestion, production of passenger flows remains relatively unchanged.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

E-Commerce Delivery Demand Modeling Framework for An Agent-Based Simulation Platform

The e-commerce delivery demand has grown rapidly in the past two decades and such trend has accelerated tremendously due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Given the situation, the need for predicting e-commerce delivery demand and evaluating relevant logistics solutions is increasing. However, the existing simulation models for e-commerce delivery demand are still limited and do not consider the delivery options and their attributes that shoppers face on e-commerce order placements. We propose a novel modeling framework which jointly predicts the average total value of e-commerce purchase, the purchase amount per transaction, and delivery option choices. The proposed framework can simulate the changes in e-commerce delivery demand attributable to the changes in delivery options. We assume the model parameters based on various sources of relevant information and conduct a demonstrative sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, we have applied the model to the simulation for the Auto-Innovative Prototype city. While the calibration of the model using real-world survey data is required, the result of the analysis highlights the applicability of the proposed framework.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2020

A simulation-based evaluation of a Cargo-Hitching service for E-commerce using mobility-on-demand vehicles

Time-sensitive parcel deliveries, shipments requested for delivery in a day or less, are an increasingly important research subject. It is challenging to deal with these deliveries from a carrier perspective since it entails additional planning constraints, preventing an efficient consolidation of deliveries which is possible when demand is well known in advance. Furthermore, such time-sensitive deliveries are requested to a wider spatial scope than retail centers, including homes and offices. Therefore, an increase in such deliveries is considered to exacerbate negative externalities such as congestion and emissions. One of the solutions is to leverage spare capacity in passenger transport modes. This concept is often denominated as cargo-hitching. While there are various possible system designs, it is crucial that such solution does not deteriorate the quality of service of passenger trips. This research aims to evaluate the use of Mobility-On-Demand services to perform same-day parcel deliveries. For this purpose, we use SimMobility, a high-resolution agent-based simulation platform of passenger and freight flows, applied in Singapore. E-commerce demand carrier data are used to characterize simulated parcel delivery demand. Operational scenarios that aim to minimize the adverse effect of fulfilling deliveries with Mobility-On-Demand vehicles on Mobility-On-Demand passenger flows (fulfillment, wait and travel times) are explored. Results indicate that the Mobility-On-Demand services have potential to fulfill a considerable amount of parcel deliveries and decrease freight vehicle traffic and total vehicle-kilometers-travelled without compromising the quality of Mobility On-Demand for passenger travel.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2020

Learning Structure in Nested Logit Models

This paper introduces a new data-driven methodology for nested logit structure discovery. Nested logit models allow the modeling of positive correlations between the error terms of the utility specifications of the different alternatives in a discrete choice scenario through the specification of a nesting structure. Current nested logit model estimation practices require an a priori specification of a nesting structure by the modeler. In this we work we optimize over all possible specifications of the nested logit model that are consistent with rational utility maximization. We formulate the problem of learning an optimal nesting structure from the data as a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) optimization problem and solve it using a variant of the linear outer approximation algorithm. We exploit the tree structure of the problem and utilize the latest advances in integer optimization to bring practical tractability to the optimization problem we introduce. We demonstrate the ability of our algorithm to correctly recover the true nesting structure from synthetic data in a Monte Carlo experiment. In an empirical illustration using a stated preference survey on modes of transportation in the U.S. state of Massachusetts, we use our algorithm to obtain an optimal nesting tree representing the correlations between the unobserved effects of the different travel mode choices. We provide our implementation as a customizable and open-source code base written in the Julia programming language.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Sparse Covariance Estimation in Logit Mixture Models

This paper introduces a new data-driven methodology for estimating sparse covariance matrices of the random coefficients in logit mixture models. Researchers typically specify covariance matrices in logit mixture models under one of two extreme assumptions: either an unrestricted full covariance matrix (allowing correlations between all random coefficients), or a restricted diagonal matrix (allowing no correlations at all). Our objective is to find optimal subsets of correlated coefficients for which we estimate covariances. We propose a new estimator, called MISC, that uses a mixed-integer optimization (MIO) program to find an optimal block diagonal structure specification for the covariance matrix, corresponding to subsets of correlated coefficients, for any desired sparsity level using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) posterior draws from the unrestricted full covariance matrix. The optimal sparsity level of the covariance matrix is determined using out-of-sample validation. We demonstrate the ability of MISC to correctly recover the true covariance structure from synthetic data. In an empirical illustration using a stated preference survey on modes of transportation, we use MISC to obtain a sparse covariance matrix indicating how preferences for attributes are related to one another.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Real-Time Predictive Control Strategy Optimization

Traffic congestion has lead to an increasing emphasis on management measures for a more efficient utilization of existing infrastructure. In this context, this paper proposes a novel framework that integrates real-time optimization of control strategies (tolls, ramp metering rates, etc.) with guidance generation using predicted network states for Dynamic Traffic Assignment systems. The efficacy of the framework is demonstrated through a fixed demand dynamic toll optimization problem which is formulated as a non-linear program to minimize predicted network travel times. A scalable efficient genetic algorithm is applied to solve this problem that exploits parallel computing. Experiments using a closed-loop approach are conducted on a large scale road network in Singapore to investigate the performance of the proposed methodology. The results indicate significant improvements in network wide travel time of up to 9% with real-time computational performance.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2015

Activity recognition for a smartphone and web based travel survey

In transport modeling and prediction, trip purposes play an important role since mobility choices (e.g. modes, routes, departure times) are made in order to carry out specific activities. Activity based models, which have been gaining popularity in recent years, are built from a large number of observed trips and their purposes. However, data acquired through traditional interview-based travel surveys lack the accuracy and quantity required by such models. Smartphones and interactive web interfaces have emerged as an attractive alternative to conventional travel surveys. A smartphone-based travel survey, Future Mobility Survey (FMS), was developed and field-tested in Singapore and collected travel data from more than 1000 participants for multiple days. To provide a more intelligent interface, inferring the activities of a user at a certain location is a crucial challenge. This paper presents a learning model that infers the most likely activity associated to a certain visited place. The data collected in FMS contain errors or noise due to various reasons, so a robust approach via ensemble learning is used to improve generalization performance. Our model takes advantage of cross-user historical data as well as user-specific information, including socio-demographics. Our empirical results using FMS data demonstrate that the proposed method contributes significantly to our travel survey application.

cs.CY↗