arXiv subjects

Moslem Uddin

Publications and source records attributed to Moslem Uddin.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Operational Value of Multi-Horizon Load Forecasts for Energy Management in a Hydrogen-Enabled Community Microgrid

Hydrogen-enabled community microgrids can improve renewable energy use and local resilience, but their operation is complicated by uncertain residential demand, variable renewable generation, dynamic electricity prices, and coupled battery and hydrogen storage. This paper evaluates the operational value of multi-horizon community load forecasts when incorporated into a previously developed proximal policy optimization (PPO) energy management system for a 1,000-household residential microgrid in Rockhampton, Australia. Forecast accuracy is mixed. The 1-hour horizon achieves an RMSE of 239.32 kW and an R-squared value of 0.201, while the 6-hour and 12-hour horizons produce negative R-squared values. The 24-hour forecast achieves an RMSE of 249.79 kW, a MAPE of 62.52 percent, and an R-squared value of 0.126. In the reported single-seed PPO experiment, the forecast-enriched controller achieves a final reward 8.3 percent higher than the non-predictive controller. Annual savings increase from AUD 2,439.86 to AUD 2,765.83, representing an additional AUD 325.97 or 13.4 percent relative to the non-predictive savings. Grid imports decrease to 58,147.49 kWh. These results provide proof-of-concept evidence rather than multi-seed validation.

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arXiv2026

Feasibility-Aware Energy Management of a Hydrogen-Enabled Community Microgrid: A Proof-of-Concept Study

Hydrogen-enabled community microgrids require coordinated control of intermittent renewable generation and coupled battery and hydrogen storage. This paper presents a feasibility-aware proximal policy optimization (PPO) energy management system for a grid-connected microgrid comprising photovoltaic and wind generation, battery storage, an electrolyzer, a hydrogen tank, a fuel cell, and diesel backup. Raw continuous actions are projected onto the feasible operating set before evaluating the hourly power balance, ensuring operationally valid dispatch. The proof-of-concept study uses 8,760 hourly observations for a 1,000-household community in Rockhampton, Australia. The same annual chronology and one random seed were used for training and evaluation. Under a 1 percent independent hourly grid outage probability, the system achieved an annual net operating cash balance of AUD 195,690.67, load satisfaction of 99.77 percent, and a gross renewable share of 91.2 percent. After removing duplicated hydrogen electricity emissions, annual emissions were 1.342 kt CO2, equivalent to 0.328 kg CO2 per kWh of served demand and 0.087 kg CO2 per kWh of export-inclusive delivered energy. At a 5 percent outage probability, the cash balance decreased to AUD 169,892.21 and load satisfaction fell to 98.79 percent. Battery discharge and diesel generation increased more than fuel cell output. The results demonstrate feasible dispatch for the studied chronology, but broader validation requires unseen testing, multiple random seeds, benchmark controllers, export limits, and sustained outage scenarios.

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arXiv2026

An Integrated Techno-Economic Framework for Optimal Microgrid Design: An Australian Case Study

Reliable and affordable electricity supply remains a challenge for remote and regional communities, motivating the deployment of renewable-based microgrids supported by flexible storage and advanced planning methods. This paper proposes an integrated techno-economic framework for optimal microgrid design and robustness assessment, and applies it to a 1000-household residential community in Rockhampton, Queensland (Australia). The framework links time-series simulation, dispatch-based operation, and lifecycle costing to evaluate hybrid configurations comprising photovoltaic and wind generation, battery storage, diesel backup, grid exchange, and an optional hydrogen subsystem (electrolyzer--hydrogen storage--fuel cell). Key indicators include net present cost (NPC), cost of energy (COE), renewable penetration, energy purchased/sold, and emissions-related outcomes. To avoid conclusions that depend on a single set of assumptions, the study performs systematic sensitivity analysis across financial, technical and policy drivers: discount rate, technology capital costs, fuel price, load uncertainty, renewable resource variability, carbon pricing/emissions cost, and grid outage duration, supplemented by a no-hydrogen attribution case. The results demonstrate that several sensitivity dimensions induce nonlinear shifts in the optimal design, including breakpoints where capital-intensive renewable--storage expansion becomes economically preferable. The proposed framework enables transparent comparison of hydrogen-enabled and battery-centric solutions and provides planning guidance for resilient, low-emission community microgrids under Australian operating conditions.

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arXiv2025

Foundation Models for Clean Energy Forecasting: A Comprehensive Review

As global energy systems transit to clean energy, accurate renewable generation and renewable demand forecasting is imperative for effective grid management. Foundation Models (FMs) can help improve forecasting of renewable generation and demand because FMs can rapidly process complex, high-dimensional time-series data. This review paper focuses on FMs in the realm of renewable energy forecasting, primarily focusing on wind and solar. We present an overview of the architectures, pretraining strategies, finetuning methods, and types of data used in the context of renewable energy forecasting. We emphasize the role of models that are trained at a large scale, domain specific Transformer architectures, where attention is paid to spatial temporal correlations, the embedding of domain knowledge, and also the brief and intermittent nature of renewable generation. We assess recent FM based advancements in forecast accuracy such as reconciling predictions over multiple time scales and quantifying uncertainty in renewable energy forecasting. We also review existing challenges and areas of improvement in long-term and multivariate time series forecasting. In this survey, a distinction between theory and practice is established regarding the use of FMs in the clean energy forecasting domain. Additionally, it critically assesses the strengths and weaknesses of FMs while advancing future research direction in this new and exciting area of forecasting.

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arXiv2025

Real-Time Energy Management Strategies for Community Microgrids

This study presents a real-time energy management framework for hybrid community microgrids integrating photovoltaic, wind, battery energy storage systems, diesel generators, and grid interconnection. The proposed approach formulates the dispatch problem as a multi-objective optimization task that aims to minimize operational costs. Two control strategies are proposed and evaluated: a conventional rule-based control (RBC) method and an advanced deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach utilizing proximal policy optimization (PPO). A realistic case study based on Australian load and generation profiles is used to validate the framework. Simulation results demonstrate that DRL-PPO reduces operational costs by 18%, CO_2 emissions by 20%, and improves system reliability by 87.5% compared to RBC. Beside, DRL-PPO increases renewable energy utilization by 13%, effectively reducing dependence on diesel generation and grid imports. These findings demonstrate the potential of DRL-based approaches to enable cost-effective and resilient microgrid operations, particularly in regional and remote communities.

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arXiv2025

A review on modelling, evaluation, and optimization of cyber-physical system reliability

The aim of this study is to present an overview of current research on modelling, evaluation, and optimization methods for improving the reliability of Cyber-Physical System (CPS). Three major modelling approaches, namely analytical, simulation, and hybrid models, are discussed. Various evaluation techniques, including fault tree analysis, Markov models, and availability measures, are reviewed and compared. Optimization strategies for CPS reliability, including fault tolerance, dynamic reconfiguration, and resource allocation, are also reviewed and briefly discussed. Besides, emerging trends and research opportunities in this field are highlighted and explained. Finally, the possible challenges are outlined and then future research are directed for CPS. This study can provide a systematic and in-dept introduction to CPS for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers.

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arXiv2025

Integrated Energy Management for Operational Cost Optimization in Community Microgrids

This study presents an integrated energy management strategy for cost optimization in multi-energy community microgrids (MGs). The proposed approach combines storage-based peak shaving, economic dispatch of diesel generators, and efficient utilization of renewable energy sources to enhance energy management in community MGs. The efficacy of the energy management system (EMS) was validated through a simulation case study for a rural Australian community. The results demonstrate that the proposed EMS effectively reduces the peak energy demand by up to 43%, lowers operational costs by 84.63% (from $189,939/year to $29,188/year), and achieves a renewable energy utilization of 92.3%, up from 47.8% in the base system. Furthermore, the levelized cost of energy was reduced by 14.21% to $0.163/kWh. The strategy ensures an uninterrupted power supply during grid outages by utilizing DGs and battery energy storage systems. The environmental benefits included a 196.4% reduction in CO2 emissions and 100% reductions in CO, unburned hydrocarbons, and particulate matter. These findings validate the feasibility of the proposed EMS in achieving cost-effective, reliable, and sustainable energy management in community MGs. These findings contribute to the field by introducing a novel approach and demonstrating the practical feasibility of multi-energy MGs.

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arXiv2025

Cost-Effective Design of Grid-tied Community Microgrid

This study aims to develop a cost-effective microgrid (MG) design that optimally balances the economic feasibility, reliability, efficiency, and environmental impact in a grid-tied community MG. A multi-objective optimization framework is first employed to generate feasible MG configurations considering economic, reliability, efficiency, and environmental objectives. Subsequently, a preference-based deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework is utilized to evaluate and select preferred configurations using a scalarized reward function. This combined approach enables systematic exploration of trade-offs among conflicting objectives and supports informed decision-making for community MG planning. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to evaluate the system performance under varying load demand and renewable energy fluctuations. Besides, an economic sensitivity assessment examines the impact of electricity prices and capital costs on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The proposed MG configuration achieves high reliability, satisfying 100% of the load, even under adverse weather conditions. The proposed framework attains an efficiency of 91.99\% while maintaining a carbon footprint of 302,747 kg/year, which is approximately 95\% lower than the annual emissions associated with a conventional grid-supplied energy system. The economic analysis indicates a net present cost of \$4.83M with a competitive LCOE of \$0.208/kWh. In addition, the operation cost is \$201,473 per year with a capital investment of \$1.42M, rendering it a financially viable alternative to conventional grid-dependent systems. This work can be valuable in identifying effective solutions for supplying reliable and cost-effective power to regional and remote areas.

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arXiv2021

Stokes' second problem and oscillatory Couette flow for a two-Layer fluid: Analytical solutions

The unsteady motion of a two-layer fluid induced by oscillatory motion of a flat plate along its length is mathematically analyzed. Two cases are considered: (i) the two-layer fluid is bounded only by the oscillating plate (Stokes' second problem), (ii) the two-layer fluid is confined between two parallel plates, one of which oscillates while the other is held stationary (oscillatory Couette flow). In each of the Stokes' and Couette cases, both cosine and sine oscillations of the plate are considered. It is assumed that the fluids are immiscible, and that the flat interface between the fluids remains flat for all times. Solutions to the initial-boundary value problems are obtained using the Laplace transform method. Steady periodic and transient velocity fields are explicitly presented. Transient and steady-state shear stresses at the boundaries of the flows are calculated. The results derived in this paper retrieve previously known results for corresponding single-layer flows. Further, illustrative example of each of the Stokes' problem and the Couette flow is presented and discussed. Again, the results obtained could also be applicable to a problem of heat conduction in a composite solid with sinusoidal temperature variation on the surface.

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